Where running back breakouts were a success last year, it’s fair to say the wide receivers were the opposite. Drake London repeated his FPPG from his rookie campaign, Sam Howell forgot Jahan Dotson existed, and the rest of the top candidates were actually busts, even for lower costs. I aim to rebound, much like London and Dotson, who are here again and joined by other potential breakout wide receivers for the 2024 fantasy football season. I’m even including a “Next 5” of sorts, with receivers who need a bit extra to break right for the breakout. As a reminder, rookies and previous Top 20-ish FPPG receivers don’t count for my breakouts.
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ROOKIES AND BROKE OUT ALREADY
- Marvin Harrison, ARI; Malik Nabers, NYG; Brian Thomas, JAX; et al rookies — Harrison is immediately in the WR1 tier conversation, Nabers could easily be a WR2 and Thomas finishing in the neighborhood of what Calvin Ridley did last year is doable. If you consider those “breakouts” even though they are rookies, I won’t fault you — much — but, in my book, those are terrific debuts, not breakouts.
- Tank Dell, HOU — Even before the addition of Stefon Diggs, it was going to be hard for Dell to improve on his 14.2 FPPG (WR11) by a “breakout” margin. Hey, Diggs could be washed and Dell could do more over a full season, but even an impressive 15.0 FPPG (good for WR6) would be a minimal breakout.
- Mike Williams, NYJ; Michael Pittman, IND; Jayden Reed, GB; Marquise Brown, KC — They’ve all been Top 25, or better. Outside of reaching WR1 status, which Williams has done in FPPG, big seasons for all of these receivers wouldn’t mean a breakout.
THE OBVIOUS NAME
Drake London, ATL — London had more touchdowns in his final USC season than in his first two years in the NFL (seven to six)… and in just eight games for the Trojans. London posted a 88-1084-7 line in those eight contests before the Falcons took him with the eighth pick in 2022. Unfortunately, London has dealt with subpar quarterbacks in Atlanta, but that all changes with Kirk Cousins’ arrival. Even with the struggles, London produced 8.6 FPPG in each season, which is just 0.2 higher than Adam Thielen’s final year with the Vikings, as his decline started and Justin Jefferson went Hungry Hungry Hippo with Cousins’ targets. London being Cousins’ top target not only makes him an easy breakout pick, and guarantee to eclipse 8.6 FPPG, but London is capable of entering the WR1 tier, which is where his ADP already lies.
TOP 5 BREAKOUT WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Jameson Williams, DET — Let’s go back to the collegiate Williams, who many thought was the better prospect than DeVonta Smith before Williams tore his ACL. Now let’s talk NFL Williams, who saw just nine targets as a rookie and 241 routes for a 42-24-354-2 line last year. Yes, it was a low-opportunity season, but Williams blew away his Lions teammates in AirYD/TGT with 15.8, — Josh Reynolds coming in second at 10.1 (Amon-Ra St. Brown at 7.8, FYI). Williams is significantly removed from his injury, is clearly the second-best wideout on the Lions, and has a quarterback who threw for 4438-29 (pass yards-pass TDs) and 4575-30 the past two seasons. Oh, and the Lions only have three outdoor games this year… though, two come during Weeks 16-17 (at CHI, at SF).
Of course, Williams has the risk of being third in targets… at best. St. Brown will get his 150+, Sam LaPorta had 120 as a rookie, and that’s before factoring in the backfield. Nevertheless, like Smith with the Eagles, Williams can do more than many with his targets. If Williams locks in the No. 2 role and sees 110 targets, a 70-for-1000 line is in play, and Williams would be a near-lock for Top 25 status with the added touchdowns.
2. Khalil Shakir, BUF — Guess who led the Bills in EPA/TGT. Well, since we started with the player’s name in this piece, it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’m talking about Shakir, who had a 0.98 mark — Gabe Davis clocked in at 0.25 and Stefon Diggs at 0.19. Of course, EPA is just one of various metrics pointing us in any direction, so let’s also mention that Shakir had 1.84 YPRR, just behind Diggs at 1.99, and led the Bills in Catch Rate at 86.7% — Dalton Kincaid was second at 82.0%. Curtis Samuel reunites with Joe Brady (who helped Samuel total 1,051 yards for the Panthers in 2020), which is a concern, as is the Bills drafting Keon Coleman, but this isn’t about declaring who the definitive No. 1 option is.
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Coleman has the profile to be an NFL No. 1 option, but Samuel is more of a No. 3, even with the Brady familiarity. Last season, Shakir flashed some real upside against the Buccaneers and Jets (check out the 81-yard touchdown) even before his 22 targets for 20-219-2 over the finalt four games (two in the playoffs). Shakir has a real chance to be a top-two option for Josh Allen, and filling the Diggs role of being Allen’s top target isn’t out of the question. There is no reason not to believe in a Shakir breakout for 2024.
3. Jahan Dotson, WSH — As with London, Dotson gets a quarterback upgrade with Jayden Daniels, whose final season at LSU included 3812-40 passing with just four interceptions, plus his 135-1134-10 marks on the ground. For Dotson, the former is more important, as Commanders quarterbacks totaled 3783-24 in 2022 and 4174-24 last year. Daniels’ LSU teammates, and 2024 first-round draft picks, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas put up 89-1569-14 and 68-1177-17, respectively. Yes, Terry McLaurin gets a boost from Daniels, but he won’t be the only one. With Curtis Samuel in Buffalo, Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott manning the tight end position, and rookie Luke McCaffrey pushing for the No. 3 role with a bunch of also-rans at receiver, Dotson is the favorite for No. 2 volume.
Additionally, Daniels and LSU enjoyed utilizing his receivers in slot fades, and Dotson can, and did, move around more than McLaurin (39.4% slot vs. 13.2% for McLaurin). Now, Daniels does have concerns working the short-to-intermediate area, but Dotson’s rookie season created excitement for Year 2 after 14.0 AirYD/TGT, 14.9 YD/REC and 7 touchdowns. Even with a mediocre reception rate, Dotson — and McLaurin obviously — can see a big jump with Daniels, pushing for 70-1000-7, which would put Dotson in the Top 24, earning top breakout status. And the best part is he doesn’t even cost a Top 55 WR pick, unlike last year with his Top 36 WR hype.
4. Quentin Johnston, LAC — I find it interesting that the concerns of Johnston coming out of college manifested in the NFL, and instead of people understanding Johnston was as raw as assumed (routes, contested catches, straight-line), they want to end his career already. I love Ladd McConkey as much — more than? — the next person, but even if McConkey is the No. 1, Joshua Palmer is no guarantee to hold off Johnston as the No. 2, assuming Johnston shows growth in Year 2.
Johnston has enviable athleticism with some DK Metcalf similarities, and for all of the talk about his drops, the perception is magnified by the attention they got (island game, big play opportunity, etc.). Palmer had a higher drop rate than Johnston (5.1% to 4.5%, and even Keenan Allen had 4.1% last year). So while Johnston needs to improve his hands, it’s not as if he’s Treylon Burks (13.8% drop rate). And even with Johnston’s struggles, he still led the Chargers with seven end zone targets and AirYD/TGT at 12.9. While there is a chance Johnston doesn’t succeed in the NFL, there is as much of a chance that the Chargers are more patient than fans and fantasy managers. Johnston’s second season can bring WR3/4 value with touchdown upside… and for no more than WR60+ cost.
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5. Marvin Mims, DEN — As with Johnston, Mims struggled as a rookie, though, unlike Johnston, Mims doesn’t carry first-round draft capital baggage. It’s been proven that it’s not the be-all-end-all, but the Broncos could have less inclination to make Mims maximize his potential, especially with the draft addition of Troy Franklin this year. The opportunity for Mims is here though — with Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland, he has an inside track to start opposite Courtland Sutton. Josh Reynolds arrives via free agency, but he’s merely a No. 3 and likely falls to No. 4 if/when Franklin is ready to step up — possibly as a rookie.
The larger issue is likely the quarterback situation, with Bo Nix looking to start immediately ahead of Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. Heck, Broncos fans and Mims better be praying Nix doesn’t fail to look better than those two. Mims can line up at all receiver positions, but he’s lacking separation and elusiveness — more of a chain-mover or “just go deep” guy, so far. That’s why he doesn’t rank higher, as the risk is Mims peaks as a No. 3 “possession” type of receiver, and Franklin passes him up during his rookie season. Nevertheless, if Nix hits the ground running and Mims takes a step forward as the No. 2, a WR4 finish is plausible, which is a massive jump for a “free” pick (outside Top 75 WRs) and someone who had just 22-377-1 in his first season.
BREAKOUT POSSIBLE BUT NEED HELP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA — The talent is undeniable, but can Smith-Njigba pass one of the more productive receivers from 2019-2022 in Tyler Lockett? It appears Lockett is on the downturn, coming off his worst statistical season since 2017, but he still commanded 122 targets while JSN had 93 in his rookie year. Additionally, DK Metcalf was Geno Smith’s first read 27.8% of the time, with Lockett second at 24.2 and JSN third at 19.3, according to FantasyPoints.com. Smith-Njigba has the talent to push for the No. 2 role, but Lockett won’t completely fade away. Even if you reverse the target share for Lockett and JSN, Geno Smith’s decline last year would have Smith-Njigba in the 800-900-yard range. Yes, there is room for more with a Smith rebound, but outside of Metcalf or Lockett missing significant time, we may have to wait for 2025 for JSN to break out into the Top 25.
Rashod Bateman, BAL — Even if you’re the top wideout for the Ravens, you’re unlikely to be much more than a WR2/3 alongside a healthy Mark Andrews. Marquise Brown had 100 targets when Andrews had just 88 in 14 games during the 2020 season, and outside 2021 when Brown and Andrews had 153 and 146, respectively, no other second option has topped 75 targets with Lamar Jackson as the starter (2019-2023). And Bateman was third with just 68 targets in that 2021 season when the Ravens threw 611 times thanks to Tyler Huntley playing a good chunk of the season. There just isn’t room in the Ravens offense for a third relevant option. Yes, the second option (Zay Flowers) can reach the Top 25, but the second wideout/No. 3 target isn’t fantasy-relevant.
Michael Wilson, ARI — The drafting of Marvin Harrison curtailed the excitement for Wilson — for Greg Dortch too. The fact is, just like with the Ravens, we’re spending too much time stressing over who the third option is… which is truly the fourth in Arizona once you factor in James Conner. The Cardinals’ pecking order is going to be Harrison, Trey McBride, likely Conner third, then the mix of Wilson and Dortch. So, even if one of the two is the clear second wideout, it’s going to be tough reaching 90+ targets. Sure, 90 targets for either would mean they had a bit of a breakout, but it wouldn’t be enough for WR3 value, or for making this list’s Top 5.
Calvin Austin, PIT — There has been some OTA buzz around Austin, but we’re talking about a 5-foot-9, 160-pound receiver who mainly worked in three-wide formations and out of the slot. My money is on Roman Wilson as the No. 2 receiver after Mike Tomlin talked him up and forced him to line up against Quinyon Mitchell in Senior Bowl practice. Additionally, with Russell Wilson, the passing game should improve, but Pat Freiermuth could be the answer for the No. 2 option no matter if it’s Wilson or Austin as the No. 2 wideout. Austin would need Wilson to struggle as a rookie, and even more to happen, for a breakout year.
A.T. Perry, NO — You can argue Rashid Shaheed broke out last year, adding 41-231-3 to his rookie season stats, but we’re aiming higher, and Shaheed is a nice No. 3, big-play option for an NFL team. I’m not here to claim Perry is the better receiver than Shaheed. In fact, his style of receiver was more 2010s than 2020s, with some Kenny Golladay similarities. That’s part of the reason Perry is here though, as he would need Shaheed to plateau or lose the No. 2 role to Perry, and even then, Perry would be a Sutton-type who is buoyed by touchdowns.
(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
