England hasn’t been impressive at Euro 2024. The Three Lions won Group C, but our own coverage of the team includes storylines of how the group finale was another dour night, how the nation has turned on manager Gareth Southgate and how the midfield play has sparked fan anger. So why are the English favored to win the tournament?
Advertisement
Well, that’s mostly thanks to the lopsided draw. The only three teams that won both of their first two games, Spain, Germany and Portugal, are all on the same half of the draw. Talented teams like France and Belgium didn’t win their groups, which also put them in that half. That means four of the top five teams in the pre-tournament odds are in the same half of the draw, with England on the other half with an also disappointing Italy side.
That’s not to say England’s draw is easy. For starters, nothing is easy for a team that managed just 28 shots in three group matches. That ranks 20th out of 24 teams. England fans can look at it and say it’s an easy draw, but the other nations in that half can see England and say the same thing. On top of that, the English could face Italy in a quarterfinal in a rematch of the final from 2021. Austria is also in that half after winning Group D ahead of France and the Netherlands.
Whether or not this reasoning justifies England as the tournament favorite is in the eye of the beholder, but England is +350 to win the tournament on BetMGM. Those odds are the same as England had just before the tournament. Spain is next at +400 with France and host Germany at +500 and then Portugal at +750 before the odds fall off. Those five teams were clearly the top tier of contenders at the start of the tournament and remain that way after the group stage.
Euro 2024 odds
All odds from BetMGM and update as the tournament progresses.
The Round of 16 features some fun matches on paper, with France vs. Belgium likely taking top billing. Neither team was overly impressive in the group stage, but there will be no shortage of talent on display. France scored just two goals in group play: a penalty and an own goal. Les Bleus also only allowed one goal, a penalty. That means the team with arguably the most talent on paper played three matches that featured a grand total of zero goals from open play. Michael Cox wrote how the team might not just be boring but also not that good.
Advertisement
Now that I’ve scared you away from that match, here are the odds for all eight Round of 16 matches. Odds for knockout matches are for the result over 90 minutes. If a match goes to extra time, it is counted as a draw in betting.
Italy vs. Switzerland
Germany vs. Denmark
England vs. Slovakia
Spain vs. Georgia
France vs. Belgium
Portugal vs. Slovenia
Romania vs. Netherlands
Austria vs. Turkey
(Photo of Jude Bellingham: Alex Grimm / Getty Images)
