After winning its first game in Group C, the USMNT is set for its second match in the Copa América. Their foe is far more familiar, as regional rival Panama enters fresh from its 3-1 loss to Uruguay on Sunday.
The United States’ opening 2-0 win flattered Bolivia. Some early set-piece excellence by Christian Pulisic (with a backroom assist from specialist coach Gianni Vio) helped keep the game from getting tense, but the hosts left plenty to be desired in front of goal.
Gregg Berhalter has some major decisions to make ahead of Thursday evening at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. So what do our writers Paul Tenorio, Jeff Rueter and Greg O’Keeffe think he will do?
Should Berhalter rotate his lineup?
Greg O’Keeffe: Small tweaks rather than momentum-risking wholesale changes should be the plan. It would be silly to risk underestimating Panama, even if the U.S. is expected to win, and significantly changing the XI which dominated Bolivia would suggest doing so.
The only starting change that makes total sense would be to bring in Yunus Musah and Cameron Carter-Vickers.
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Paul Tenorio: It’s too soon to start thinking about rotation in this second game. The U.S. doesn’t have the luxury of looking ahead and assuming they get a result against a Panama team that beat them, albeit with a far different U.S. roster, in the Gold Cup last summer. That said, I think Berhalter will go into this game hoping he can make some specific substitutions and get minutes for players such as Carter-Vickers, Josh Sargent and Musah.
“We’re not in the stage right now where we’re considering something like that,” said Berhalter on Wednesday when asked about making changes. “For us, it’s how do we get what we think is the best game plan and attack to execute and be successful in this game.
“You see Portugal has been doing it right now and it’s not going too well (Portugal lost 2-0 to Georgia in the biggest shock of the European Championship so far). Right? Every coach has a different decision to make. And I think sometimes you take a short-term hit for a long-term benefit, and Portugal may come out of this flying in the next phase of the tournament because they got the opportunity to rest some players.”
Jeff Rueter: The trick will be to balance refining partnerships among Berhalter’s first-choice starters while ensuring they enter the game against Uruguay and, results pending, the knockout stage in peak condition. With that in mind, I think he could afford to make two or three changes. Carter-Vickers and Musah immediately spring to mind as players who could benefit from logging at least an hour on Thursday with a view toward the rest of this tournament.
Although there’s still limited cohesion between Joe Scally and Tim Weah on the right — as shown below — I suspect both will remain in the same roles they played on Sunday.
How does Josh Sargent’s return change plan at striker?
Tenorio: Berhalter faces an interesting conundrum. Sargent would be a legitimate challenge to Folarin Balogun to start, so you have to try to work him into some game time at some point. On the flip side, Berhalter likely will want to call on Ricardo Pepi again to show he still has faith in a striker who has typically been deadly off the bench. Pepi missed several good chances against Bolivia in the opening group game, but he’s also scored some big goals for the U.S. How does Berhalter balance the minutes behind Balogun?
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Rueter: Balogun had a poor game overall against Bolivia, but it seems counterproductive to drop him after he managed to get a goal. It would be harsh to drop Pepi entirely but Sargent has historically provided better interplay with Pulisic and Weah.
Not every player on a 26-player roster has to justify their presence to the same extent as was the case under the previous 23-man limit. The additional call-ups allow coaches more flexibility and Sargent’s recovery will benefit from training with the national team rather than being on his own in Norwich or Missouri. If Sargent is anything less than 100 per cent, this seems too soon to risk him when multiple alternatives (including Haji Wright, though he seems like more of a wing option at this stage) are present.
O’Keeffe: It doesn’t — for now. Balogun deserves a half to show he can build on the confidence his goal should hopefully have brought. Then Pepi’s lively cameo also warrants 45 minutes.
Sargent is an excellent option off the bench and is arguably the most clinical striker on the roster but it may be too early for him to be starting games.
“It’s being smart,” Berhalter said on Wednesday when asked about how he assesses his players as they return to full match fitness during the group stages. “It’s gathering information and talking to the medical and performance team continually… We’re not looking to jeopardise anyone’s following season but we know this is an important event for our team so it’s just being mindful of those two things.”
What adjustments could be made for Panama?
Rueter: Panama opened its tournament with a 3-1 defeat against Uruguay, with the sole consolation goal coming deep in second-half stoppage. Thomas Christiansen’s side ceded the majority of the ball, keeping 45.2 per cent of total possession and a 42 per cent field tilt — that is, possession only considering touches in each side’s attacking third. Six of their 10 shots were taken from outside the box, while nine of their 10 attempts were obstructed by opposing defenders.
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The key to neutralizing Panama will be to contain Adalberto ‘Coco’ Carrasquilla, now the chief midfield facilitator given Anibal Godoy’s absence due to injury. No other Panama player was able to consistently sling accurate passes, with Carrasquilla most often working to catalyze Yoel Barcenas on the left flank. Christiansen’s wing-backs pushed high up the flank, which could leave them stretched and vulnerable on the break.
Tenorio: The U.S. has typically struggled to create against teams that sit in a low block against them. It’s never an easy task to break a low block down, but I went back and read through some of Berhalter’s comments from games where the U.S. faced similar tactics and there’s a bit of a theme.
The first is to be absolutely ruthless in the moments when the opposing team does come out of that shell: make them pay when you get the space. The second is to take some of what is given to you, which includes shots from outside the box that force teams to defend you a bit higher around the box, and then to get balls into the box a bit more and flood it with bodies.
O’Keeffe: It’s the modern coaching cliche but the U.S. has to be ruthless in transition. When Panama do attack, they have to be hungry to seize on any breakdown and quickly get into dangerous positions behind midfield. As we saw against Bolivia, chance creation was not too much of a problem. Musah starting could help this with his ball progression.
Our writers’ expected lineups
(These are what we expect Berhalter to do considering all factors, not necessarily how we would line the team up if it were up to each of us.)
Tenorio: Turner; A. Robinson, Ream, Richards, Scally; Adams, McKennie, Reyna; Pulisic, Balogun, Weah
O’Keeffe: Turner, A. Robinson, Carter-Vickers, Richards, Scally; Adams, Musah, Reyna; Pulisic, Balogun, Weah.
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Rueter: Turner; A. Robinson, Carter-Vickers, Richards, Scally; Musah, McKennie, Reyna; Pulisic, Balogun, Weah
Projected lineup for Panama: Mosquera; Davis, Miller, Cordoba, Farina, Murillo; Barcenas, Carrasquilla, Welch, Rodriguez; Fajardo.
(Top photo: Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)