What’s harder to draft, an elite winger or No. 1 defenseman? Breaking down the Blackhawks’ dilemma

Let’s say 2024 NHL Draft prospects Ivan Demidov and Artyom Levshunov are equal in talent and upside within their positions.

Demidov’s ceiling is that skilled, offensive winger great teams rely on to make plays and score a ton of goals. Levshunov is that big, physical, multi-tooled defenseman that teams want to have playing 25-plus minutes every game.

If you project Demidov to be a top-line winger and Levshunov to be a No. 1 defenseman and you have a need for each in your organization, which player archetype do you draft with a high pick and which player archetype do you attempt to address elsewhere in the draft, free agency or through a trade? It’s a similar dilemma to the one the Blackhawks faced in 2019 when they moved up to the third pick in the lottery and had to choose between forwards Kirby Dach and Alex Turcotte or defenseman Bo Byram. Just like this year, Chicago was the pivot point in the draft, as Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko were clear choices at Nos. 1 and 2 at the time. Of course, Dach and Turcotte are centers, who are seen as significantly more valuable than wingers when it comes to the draft. The Blackhawks ended up taking Dach, whom they eventually traded to Montreal for the pick that became center Frank Nazar. Turcotte has played in just 32 games with the Kings, and Byram — who looked like a future star in Colorado before health concerns derailed his career somewhat — was traded this season to Buffalo.

So what will the Blackhawks do this time around? Or, perhaps a better question, what should the Blackhawks do this time around? Which position is harder to draft? Which position takes longer to develop? Which position is easier to find in free agency or via trades? In an attempt to answer those questions, we took the top 20 defensemen and top 20 wingers in 2023-24 based on The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn model and broke down their paths to becoming elite at their position, and how they ended up on their current teams. Here’s what we found:

You can find who the players are and the individual information on each at the bottom of this story.

How early were they drafted?

Of the top 20 defensemen this season, all 20 were drafted into the NHL. Five were top-five picks, seven were in the top 10 and 13 were taken in the first round. Outside of the first round, two were taken in each of the second and fourth rounds and one in the third, fifth and sixth rounds.

Of the top 20 wingers this season, 19 were drafted into the NHL, with Artemi Panarin being the lone undrafted player in the bunch. Three were drafted in the top five, six in the top 10 and 11 in the first round. Outside the first round, two were each drafted in the second, third, fifth and sixth rounds.

It’s a marginal difference, but the numbers suggest it might be a little easier to find high-end forward talent later in the draft than high-end talent on the back end.

As one NHL scout said, “I think for me you build from the back end out, but that being said I would always take who I thought was the best player.”

How were they acquired?

Twelve of the defensemen, including eight of the top 10 in the model, were drafted by their current team. Five were acquired through trade. One signed in free agency. One was claimed off waivers. One was selected in the expansion draft.

Eleven forwards, including six of the top 10, were drafted by their current team. Six were acquired through trade. Three were signed as free agents.

That eight of the top 10 defensemen were drafted by their current teams is eye-opening. Teams are understandably reluctant to part with truly elite defensemen, perhaps because, again, it seems slightly easier to find high-end wingers on the open market.

How long did it take them to develop?

Of the top 20 defensemen, it took an average of 2.4 years for them to become full-time NHL players after being drafted. If you take out the late-blooming Gustav Forsling and Devon Toews, that number drops to 1.85 years. Only three of the defensemen made the jump straight to the NHL: Drew Doughty, Victor Hedman and Rasmus Dahlin.

Of the top 20 wingers, it took an average of 2.58 years to become full-time NHLers, with Matthew and Brady Tkachuk the only two to jump right into the NHL (other wingers have made the jump, such as Alexis Lafrenière, of course, but they’re not among the top 20 at their position). If you take out late-bloomers Kirill Kaprizov, Zach Hyman and Carter Verhaeghe, it drops to an even two-year average.

The conventional wisdom in the hockey world has always been that defensemen take longer to develop, and longer to tap into their potential. While forwards’ primes have gotten earlier and earlier, defensemen always have hit their strides a little later in their careers, typically in their late 20s. But when looking at the truly elite players, that isn’t necessarily the case.

It’s a young man’s league, and whether the Blackhawks take Levshunov (as expected) or take a swing on Demidov, it shouldn’t take long for them to rise to the top and fill that role — if they can live up to the hype, of course.

Defensemen

Cale Makar, Colorado, 25

Fourth, 2017 draft

First full NHL season: 2019-20

First post-ELC contract: 6 years, $9 million AAV

Quinn Hughes, Vancouver, 24

Seventh, 2018 draft

First full NHL season: 2019-20

First post-ELC contract: 6 years, $7.85 million AAV

Evan Bouchard, Edmonton, 24

10th, 2018 draft

First full NHL season: 2021-22

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $3.9 million AAV

Adam Fox, N.Y. Rangers, 26

66th, 2016 draft, by Calgary

How acquired: Rights traded to Carolina for Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm in 2018, then traded to Rangers for a second-round pick in 2019

First full NHL season: 2019-20

First post-ELC contract: 7 years, $9.5 million AAV

Roman Josi, Nashville, 34

38th, 2008 draft

First full NHL season: 2011-12

First post-ELC contract: 7 years, $4 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $9.059 million AAV

Miro Heiskanen, Dallas, 24

Third, 2017 draft

First full NHL season: 2018-19

First post-ELC contract: 8 years, $8.45 million AAV

Charlie McAvoy, Boston, 26

14th, 2016 draft

First full NHL season: 2017-18

First post-ELC contract: 3 years, $4.9 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $9.5 million AAV

Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg, 29

13th, 2013 draft

First full NHL season: 2016-17

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $3.15 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $6.25 million AAV

Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh, 34

15th, 2008 draft, by Ottawa

How acquired: Traded by San Jose in August 2023

First full NHL season: 2009-10

First post-ELC contract: 7 years, $6.5 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $11.5 million AAV

Noah Dobson, N.Y. Islanders, 24

12th, 2018 draft

First full NHL season: 2020-21

First post-ELC contract: 3 years, $4 million AAV

Drew Doughty, Los Angeles, 34

Second, 2008 draft

First full NHL season: 2008-09

First post-ELC contract: 8 years, $7 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $11 million AAV

Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo, 24

First, 2018 draft

First full NHL season: 2018-19

First post-ELC contract: 8 years, $11 million AAV

Shea Theodore, Vegas, 28

26th, 2013 draft, by Anaheim

How acquired: Traded by Anaheim during the Vegas expansion draft to ensure Golden Knights wouldn’t take Josh Manson or Sami Vatanen

First full NHL season: 2017-18

First post-ELC contract: 7 years, $5.2 million AAV

Gustav Forsling, Florida, 28

126th, 2014 draft, by Vancouver

How acquired: Claimed off waivers from Carolina in 2021

First full NHL season: 2020–21

First post-ELC contract: 1 year, two-way, $874,125/$70,000

Current contract: 8 years, $5.75 million AAV

Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay, 33

Second, 2009 draft

First full NHL season: 2009-10

First post-ELC contract: 5 years, $4 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $7.875 million AAV

Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota, 34

156th, 2008 draft, by N.Y. Islanders

How acquired: Signed with Wild after Islanders opted not to sign him

First full NHL season: 2010-11

First post-ELC contract: 3 years, $2.666 million AAV

Current contract: 7 years, $7.575 million AAV

Jaccob Slavin, Carolina, 30

120th, 2012 draft

First full NHL season: 2015-16

First post-ELC contract: 7 years, $5.3 million AAV

Brent Burns, Carolina, 39

20th, 2003 draft, by Minnesota

How acquired: Traded by San Jose in 2022

First full NHL season: 2005-06

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $825,000 AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $8 million AAV

Vince Dunn, Seattle, 27

56th, 2015 draft, by St. Louis

How acquired: Selected in expansion draft

First full NHL season: 2017-18

First post-ELC contract: 1 year, $1.875 million AAV

Current contract: 4 years, $7.35 million AAV

Devon Toews, Colorado, 30

108th, 2014 draft, by N.Y. Islanders

How acquired: Traded by Islanders for two second-rounders in 2020

First full NHL season: 2019-20

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $700,000 AAV

Current contract: 7 years, $7.25 million AAV

Wingers

Matthew Tkachuk, Florida, 26

Sixth, 2016 draft by Calgary

How acquired: Traded by Flames for Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Cole Schwindt and 2025 lottery-protected first-round pick

First full NHL season: 2016-17 season

First post-ELC contract: 3 years, $7-million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $9.5 million AAV

Nikita Kucherov, Tampa, 31

58th, 2011 draft

First full NHL season: 2013-14

First post-ELC contract: 3 years, $4,766,667 AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $9.5 million AAV

Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota,  27

135th, 2015 draft

First full NHL season: 2020-21

First post-ELC contract:  5 years, $9 million AAV

David Pastrnak, Boston, 28

25th, 2014 draft

First full NHL season: 2015-16

First post-ELC contract: 6 years, $6,666,667 AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $11.25 million AAV

Mikko Rantanen, Colorado, 27

10th, 2015 draft

First full NHL season: 2016-17

First post-ELC contract: 6 years, $6,666,667 AAV

Current contract: 6 years, $9.25 million AAV

Artemi Panarin, N.Y. Rangers, 32

Undrafted

How acquired: Signed as a free agent in 2019

First full NHL season: 2015-2016

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $6 million AAV

Current contract: 7 years, $11,642,857 AAV

Jason Robertson, Dallas, 24

39th, 2017 draft

First full NHL season: 2020-21

First post-ELC contract: 4 years, $7.75 million AAV

Mitch Marner, Toronto, 27

Fourth, 2015 draft

First full NHL season: 2016-17

First post-ELC contract: 6 years, $10,903,000 AAV

Zach Hyman, Edmonton, 32

123rd, 2010 draft

How acquired: Signed as a free agent in 2021

First full NHL season: 2016-17

First post-ELC contract: 4 years, $2.25 million AAV

Current contract: 7 years, $5.5 million AAV

Sam Reinhart, Florida, 28

Second, 2014 draft by Buffalo

How acquired: Traded by Buffalo for Devon Levi and 2022 first-round pick

First full NHL season: 2015-16

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $3.65 million AAV

Current contract: 3 years, $6.5-million AAV

Filip Forsberg, Nashville, 29

11th, 2012 draft by Washington

How acquired: Traded by Washington for Martin Erat and Michael Latta

First full NHL season: 2014-15

First post-ELC contract: 6 years, $6 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $8.5 million AAV

Jake Guentzel, Carolina, 29

77th, 2013 draft by Pittsburgh

How acquired: Traded with Ty Smith by Pittsburgh for Michael Buntin, Vasily Ponomarev, Ville Koivunen, Cruz Lucius and conditional 2024 first-round and fifth-round picks

First full NHL season: 2017-18

First post-ELC contract: 5 years, $6 million AAV

William Nylander, Toronto, 28

Eighth, 2014 draft

First full NHL season: 2016-17

First post-ELC contract: 6 years, $6,962,366 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $11.5 million AAV

Jesper Bratt, New Jersey, 25

162nd, 2016 draft

First full NHL season: 2017-18

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $2.75 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $7.875 million AAV

Kevin Fiala, Los Angeles, 27

11th, 2014 draft by Nashville

How acquired: Traded by Minnesota for Brock Faber and 2022 first-round pick

First full NHL season: 2017-18

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $3 million AAV

Current contract: 7 years, $7.875 million AAV

Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa, 24

Fourth, 2018 draft

First full NHL season: 2018-19

First post-ELC contract: 7 years, $8,205,714 AAV

Matt Boldy, Minnesota, 23

12th, 2019 draft

First full NHL season: 2022-23

First post-ELC contract: 7 years, $7 million AAV

Chris Kreider, N.Y. Rangers, 33

19th, 2009 draft

First full NHL season: 2013-14

First post-ELC contract: 2 years, $2.475 million AAV

Current contract: 7 years, $6.5 million AAV

Carter Verhaeghe, Florida, 28

82nd, 2013 draft by Toronto

How acquired: Signed as a free agent

First full NHL season: 2019-20

First post-ELC contract: 1 year, $650,000 AAV

Current contract: 3 years, $4,166,667 AAV

Mark Stone, Vegas, 32

178th, 2010 draft by Ottawa

How acquired: Traded with Tobias Lindberg by Ottawa for Erik Brannstrom, Oscar Lindberg and 2020 second-round pick

First full NHL season: 2014-15

First post-ELC contract: 3 years, $3.5 million AAV

Current contract: 8 years, $9.5 million AAV

(Top photo of Cale Makar and Zach Hyman: Lawrence Scott/Getty Images)