Let’s continue our first pass at fantasy football ADP. The focus of this column is on the current prices of players selected on average after pick No. 100 in NFFC drafts for the past week (over 100 drafts). For the most part, these are players I like.
But remember, I like prices, not necessarily players. Let these players fall to you near ADP or even below (remember, they go later about half the time). If you take them slightly above ADP because you’re picking near the beginning or end of a round in a snake draft, that’s fine. But reaching for them, no matter how persuasive you think my arguments are, cuts into the expected profit. Being disciplined and not overpaying because you’re high on your own supply is my main tenet of drafting.
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I don’t expect these prices to change substantially absent big news in training camp. I have five wide receivers and four running backs, though two are paired on the same team and should be drafted in tandem if possible. There is one QB situation where the prices defy explanation, at least to me. If you have a contrary take, please share it in the comments.
Let’s start with the top reason to bypass running backs near the top of your draft. In an amazing display of a lack of any foresight in imagining tomorrow’s headlines, fantasy football is letting you get Zack Moss (ADP 105) and Chase Brown (116) in Rounds 9-10. Compare this to the prices of the Dolphins and Lions backfields. It’s completely obvious that one of these guys has a very good chance to be a league winner as the primary runner for one of the best offenses in football. The other one probably will be fine. It’s likely Moss is the 1st- and 2nd-down runner, and goal line back, while Brown is more of the receiving specialist. But who knows. Moss averaged pretty much the same yards per carry as Jonathan Taylor last year and was okay as a receiver. Brown looked better than Joe Mixon when given a chance, though that is damning with faint praise. The beautiful thing is that you don’t have to choose. Grab them both.
Rookie WR Brian Thomas is pick 108 on average. He seems to have some chance to be the best rookie wide receiver in 2024. Marvin Harrison Jr. is hamstrung with a worse QB in Kyler Murray. Trevor Lawrence is far from perfect, but he’s still about a half yard better in YPA than Murray over the past two years. He’s also appropriately sized, where Murray can’t see over the linemen — he was 46th out of 48 on EPA on passes between the hashes. Murray is a very limited player. Lawrence has disappointed, but there are no limitations. Thomas has about a 40% chance to outperform Malik Nabers, yet Thomas is five rounds cheaper. Not picks. Not even WR slots. Rounds! Nabers is saddled with Daniel Jones. These ADPs can’t be explained.
Bills rookie Keon Coleman, at pick No. 120, is an even better value than Thomas. Yes, draft order is destiny, sort of. I won’t fight you. But a pairing with Josh Allen and a clear path to leading the team in targets is very enticing, and this is a Round 10-11 price. I know Coleman dropped in the draft season because he was slow, but the Underwear Olympics testing doesn’t correlate to NFL WR success. Why not just bet on expected opportunities and QB when the market is seemingly ignoring both?
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Zach Charbonnet is the first of two running backs I really like in Round 11. You can get him at pick 126 or thereabouts; Kendre Miller is going on average at pick 130. I know they are not expected to be starters, but I don’t think Kenneth Walker is good. Plus, he’s often hurt. Walker certainly did not outplay Charbonnet. Miller is up against Alvin Kamara, who is on his last legs in all likelihood and is probably capped at about 200 carries if he manages to stay healthy and performs well. There are just too many paths to fantasy relevance for Miller to be this cheap. Getting the Bengals backs and one of Charbonnet and Miller is the perfect way to round out your backfield if you’ve drafted one or two RBs through Round 8.
Second-year breakout of a first-round real-life WR on a team with a top-half QB and no certain No. 1 target is attractive even if it carries a price. But Quentin Johnston, wildly overdrafted last year, is practically free (ADP of 141). I’m not making any pronouncements or claiming I see something, or saw something. This is pure Year 2 draft capital sitting in the discount bin. I will roster that 100 times out of 100.
For my next selection, another wideout, let’s do a thought experiment. Pretend you were neighbors with an NFL head coach and when borrowing the hedge clippers he told you a receiver no one is paying much attention to reminds him of one of the greatest playmakers in league history. You’d make a point to get that guy in your fantasy league, correct? Well that’s Dontayvion Wicks, ADP 156. Matt LaFleur told Joe Buck and Troy Aikman last year that Wicks is comparable to Davante Adams. Okay, sold. At ADP 156? Always gamble when it doesn’t cost you anything. You want more? PFF graded Wicks the No. 4 rookie WR.
One more WR before we close with some QB ADP madness.
Everyone likes the Falcons this year as a breakout offense. Let’s stipulate they’re right. How are you going to invest? Bijan Robinson is a first rounder. Drake London goes in Round 2. Even Kyle Pitts is a Round 5-6 pick. Who cares about QB. But there’s Darnell Mooney at pick 186, 16 rounds into drafts. Now, about 80% of guys picked there or later will be dropped. So if I’m wrong on Mooney, who cares. Nothing was lost. But I think Mooney is going to be an afterthought for defenses. And Kirk Cousins is likely to exploit that fact. You also go to where the money goes, and $39 million went to Mooney, which does not correlate to overall pick 186. I see a line of 75-900-6, or something like that — solid WR3 territory.
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Finally, Justin Fields is going at pick 157, ahead of Russell Wilson at No. 171. I don’t care about Wilson. He’s not someone I’m targeting. But drafting Fields anywhere is “True Genius” territory, planting a flag on a low probability event to get attention at the draft and then bask in glory if the pick hits, which it almost certainly will not. Fields is one of the worst QBs ever through his games played due to holding the ball forever and getting sacked or picked at one of the highest rates this century. Virtually no one makes it after such a horrible beginning, especially in the past 20 years. The people drafting Fields are like the coaches who call a tight-end reverse on the one-yard line. It’s QB, kids. A layup position. Save your genius insights for things that actually matter.
(Top photo of Dontayvion Wicks: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)
