Maple Leafs 2024 NHL Draft preview: What we’re hearing, what we’ve learned and who they might pick

The Athletic has live coverage of the 2024 NHL Draft.

LAS VEGAS — Remember the not-so-distant days of the Maple Leafs sitting down at their NHL Draft table and betting almost solely on skill and upside? Remember the likes of Semyon Der-Arguchintsev and Mac Hollowell being taken by the Leafs?

Well, forget everything you thought you knew about how the Leafs approach drafting. That’s my advice because that’s what I’ve learned having followed and analyzed the Leafs’ drafts under Wes Clark.

Clark was promoted to director of amateur scouting after the 2021 draft. Since that time, Clark and his crew of scouts have a terrific batting average, considering how far out of the top of the first round they’ve picked: Easton Cowan nabbed nearly every single personal and team accolade available in the OHL this season and looks ready for an NHL look. The Leafs traded into the second round and drafted intelligent all-round centre Fraser Minten in 2022. Minten already had a short audition in the NHL and could be a third-line centre who can be trusted in multiple situations.

And what do their two highest-profile picks in Cowan and Minten have in common?

When their names were called, more than a few eyebrows were raised. Both were projected in various mock drafts to go far lower in the draft.

But none of that matters to Clark. He and his team value studying film over in-person scouting in a way many teams do not. Intangibles matter to them. Clark is well-versed in thinking far outside the box, regardless of public perception. Clark wants to draft winners. He values competitiveness that manifests in an intense internal drive within players.

With that in mind, players like Jett Luchanko and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard stick out as possibilities, but I wonder if they fall to the Leafs when their pick comes at No. 23.

“Many of our scouting staff, I think for Wes for sure because we also talk about it, want players who have a deep belief in themselves. People can say it’s confidence, bordering on cocky, but you want the player that really has that because they’re not going to shy away from those big moments,” Leafs assistant general manager, player development, Hayley Wickenheiser told The Athletic when asked about Cowan.

Skill and intelligence are going to be obvious components within players that are drafted, but that skill will manifest in different ways. Cowan, for example, is a remarkably skilled penalty killer and Minten’s skill is reflected in how detail-oriented he is on and off the puck.

“There’s lots of factors that go into (intelligence),” Clark said. “Ultimately, it’s doing the things that help teams win hockey games.”

And this shouldn’t be seen as a blanket statement, but size feels like more of a priority in the first Leafs draft GM Brad Treliving will be heavily involved in.

Don’t be surprised if the Leafs target a defenceman at 23, either.

“If all things equal out, we’d probably take the bigger player,” Clark said.

If we’re using the last two years as a guide, Clark and the Leafs also look for players who have come on strong late in their draft year, especially in the playoffs. The player may then have gone overlooked by many teams throughout the season. They may then be beginning their ascent in their development curve. They also have a demonstrated ability to raise their game when it matters.

Minten, for example, had a decent regular season offensively in his draft year, boosted by heavy power-play points totals. But through 17 playoff games in his draft year, he was nearly a point-per-game player and led his Kamloops Blazers team with two short-handed playoff goals. Cowan was a prime example of the Leafs’ interest in drafting players who excel in the playoffs: He was all over the ice through four rounds and scored 21 points in 20 games.

So, what does this mean heading into the 2024 draft?

Treliving said Wednesday it is “more than likely” the Leafs keep the 23rd pick. But knowing Clark, it still might not be a player many are expecting.

Bearing all the above in mind, we’re going to give it a shot. Here’s The Athletic’s list of considerations for players the Leafs could draft at 23, with comments from those who know the player where applicable. We’re not projecting players that might be available — some of these players could go in the mid-teens, others in the third round perhaps — but we’re trying to project who a typical Wes Clark pick might be.

Cole Beaudoin, C

6-foot-2, 210 pounds
Barrie (OHL), 67 GP, 28 G, 34 A, 62 PTS

Beaudoin tops this list not just because he has all the tools the Leafs desire, but because they have shown extra attention to him through his draft season and after the NHL Combine.

There were multiple players, including others on this list, who were invited to Toronto to tour the practice facility the day after the combine ended in Buffalo. But very few met members of the Leafs brass like Beaudoin did.

Beaudoin is a relentless worker who takes care of his assignments in all areas of the ice the right way. There’s some offence in his game but if you’re looking for concerns, how much he can score in the NHL might be up there. Still, he’s the type to quickly understand and master challenges.

“(Beaudoin’s) will to get things done and will to play the game is second to none. He is a coach’s dream,” Colts coach and GM Marty Williamson said. “They just don’t build players like Cole.”

The Boston Bruins and Dallas Stars, who pick at 25 and 29, respectively, may also be genuinely interested in Beaudoin.

Yegor Surin, C

6-foot-3, 204 pounds
Yaroslavl Jr. (Russia), 42 GP, 22 G, 30 A, 52 PTS

Surin’s competitiveness and ability to create offence with that energy and physicality is right up the Leafs’ lane. The Russian forward already has decent pro-ready size and led Lokomotiv Yaroslavl’s junior team in points during a run to the MHL final this season. The Leafs do not shy away from taking Russian players in the draft. Surin is one I’m keeping a keen eye on. 

Matvei Gridin, RW

6-foot-2, 189 pounds
Muskegon (USHL), 60 GP, 38 G, 45 A, 83 PTS

The Leafs have been asking more questions about the playmaking winger with stellar hands, shot and skating than most other NHL teams. They seem willing to overlook some of the weaknesses in his game, such as questionable body language and backchecking early in the season, because they are more curious about his long-term potential. Gridin was the USHL’s top scorer, after all.

Clark has shown he likes players who come on strong later in their seasons — like Cowan — which suggests they’re at the beginning of a steep development curve.

“(Gridin) kind of came out of nowhere,” Muskegon Lumberjacks coach Parker Burgess said. “He addressed his issues late in the season.”

Those who know Gridin attest to how outgoing he is. His English skills are strong, which should help him feel more comfortable in the pro game. Gridin is hell-bent on playing in the NHL. His move to come to North America early in his career and focus on his development speaks to that. He’s committed to the University of Michigan for next season.

Lucas Pettersson, C

6-foot, 173 pounds
Modo Jr. (Sweden), 44 GP, 27 G, 30 A, 57 PTS

If the Leafs want smarts and maturity, they could do a lot worse than Pettersson.

“(Pettersson) is one of the best characters I have ever coached on an under-20 team,” Modo under-20 coach Emil Svelander said. “Lucas is a leader and even demanding of me as a coach. He wants to know the purpose of why we are doing things. A very good leader for the team.”

Among his intangibles, Petterson’s drive makes him play and look a lot bigger than he stands. Pettersson is at his best when he’s winning battles and creating offence from all areas of the ice. His two-way game should help him remain a centre in the NHL. 

Stian Solberg, LHD

6-foot-2, 205 pounds
Valerenga (Norway), 42 GP, 5 G, 10 A, 15 PTS

The Leafs may very likely be targeting a defenceman to add to their prospect pool, and Solberg consistently displays the competitiveness and high-end defensive instincts that Clark covets. Watching him turn it on with Norway with a blend of mobility and physicality in the world championships undoubtedly sent him higher up a lot of draft boards. That’s a double-edged sword, of course: Upping the ante when it matters is what Clark is after, but it might end up pushing Solberg out of the Leafs’ range.

“The most impressive thing about Solberg is his drive. He’ll come to practices with a smile and is always the first into the gym,” Valerenga coach Fredrik Andersson, who was also a longtime NHL scout, said. “That’s going to make him a player in the NHL.”

Solberg will play in Sweden’s top division next season.

Igor Chernyshov, LW

6-foot-3, 204 pounds
Dynamo Moscow (KHL), 32 GP, 3 G, 1 A, 34 PTS

Another player who might not be available at 23 but if he is, man oh man, the Leafs should look long and hard at him if they haven’t already. He brings the straight-line, power-heavy game the Leafs value. Chernyshov uses his size to create offence and when he’s on his own, there’s serious creativity in his game. What shouldn’t go overlooked is how he has plenty of experience playing against professionals in the KHL, suggesting he could make an NHL impact soon enough. Logging time in the KHL, as Chernyshov did, is no easy task for an 18-year-old.

“After Christmas, (Chernyshov) was with us full-time and he was the best player in practice. You could see that once he gets a little older and more consistent, you should see where that extreme talent is going to be,” Dynamo teammate and former NHL player Jordan Weal said.

Charlie Elick, RHD

6-foot-3, 202 pounds
Brandon (WHL), 65 GP, 4 G, 23 A, 27 PTS

It’s rare to find 6-foot-3 right-shot defenders who can move as well as Elick does. His skating is right up there with some of the better players in this draft. And when you add in the physicality, athleticism and edge he brings, drafting Elick almost feels too on the nose for Treliving.

“(Elick) has the ability to have a long career with those assets he has,” Wheat Kings coach Marty Murray said. “His ability to close down plays, take away time and space. I know offence is secondary for Charlie, but there’s a lot of things with how he moves that means he can impact the game.” 

Sacha Boisvert, C

6-foot-2, 183 pounds
Muskegon (USHL), 61 GP, 36 G, 32 A, 68 PTS 

There’s just so much power in Boisvert’s game, whether that’s in a forceful stride, determined work to win battles in the corners or a heavy shot.

And what likely appeals to the Leafs is how he’s such a powerful figure off the ice too.

“He’s very intrinsically driven and competitive,” Burgess said. “We had a very talented and competitive group, and Sacha’s best quality is being a leader. He demands a lot out of himself and just as much out of his teammates. Sacha wants to win at everything. You don’t have to push him. If anything, you have to rein him in.”

Adam Kleber, RHD

6-foot-6, 215 pounds
Lincoln (USHL), 55 GP, 5 G, 21 A, 26 PTS

There are obvious boxes Kleber ticks as a mobile blueliner who defends exceptionally well and, um, is also 6-foot-6. He’s not afraid to get physical and use his length. Kleber already feels like the kind of reliable defenceman you can trust when your team is in trouble.

Sure, given those tools Kleber feels like something of a typical Treliving favourite. Add in the hockey sense and his willingness to carry the puck and it feels like he’s got the intelligence Clark values as well. He’s committed to the University of Minnesota-Duluth for next season. I’m not sure if the Leafs value him, but: Kleber played at Chaska High under then-head coach Matt Cooke. Cooke, you’ll remember, spent nearly a season as Newfoundland Growlers head coach and did well with the development piece before the ECHL team folded. I wonder if there’s enough intel and connection there for the Leafs to go for him.

Marek Vanacker, LW

6-foot, 178 pounds
Brantford (OHL), 68 GP, 36 G, 46 A, 82 PTS

Energy, energy, energy. Vanacker shows it every time he steps on the ice.

“He’s a player who practises like he plays: really high-tempo,” Brantford Bulldogs coach Jay McKee said. “He’s our best forechecker.”

The winger has hands and skating to help his offence but it’s his inclination to get to the net that the Leafs might be interested in.

But what sticks out here is the difference in his game from 2022-23 to 2023-24.

“He came back a completely different player,” McKee said.

That Vanacker exploded this season meets the criteria the Leafs often look for in picks: He may just be beginning his true evolution as a player. 

Ben Danford, RHD

6-foot-2, 191 pounds
Oshawa (OHL), 64 GP, 1 G, 32 A, 33 PTS

Danford can eat heavy minutes as a right-shot defenceman. He can skate well, too. Danford might not “wow” onlookers with any dynamic skill, but he can still play the kind of two-way game that could eventually make him coveted.

Now, he is far lower than 23 on most public lists but there are elements of his game that make him a possibility for the Leafs: He’s a natural leader and came on strong with an improved playoff run for the Generals, who went to the OHL final. That kind of playoff performance is important to the Leafs.

“Once he got to the playoffs, (Danford) just calmed his game down and his game then took off,” Generals coach Derek Laxdal said. “Ben is the ultimate competitor, but what he realized in the playoffs is who he really is as a defender. And then you can be surprised at what happens.”

Andrew Basha, LW

5-foot-11, 187 pounds
Medicine Hat (WHL), 63 GP, 30 G, 55 A, 85 PTS

There’s plenty of variance in how the winger with strong puck skills is viewed. Could he be something of a wild card pick that the Leafs usually aren’t afraid of making?

Basha was hampered by injuries this season, particularly in the second half of the year. Those who know him suggest the true picture of what he’s capable of lies in the first half of the season. And what he showed — high-end skill matched with drive — makes him one to watch for the Leafs.

“He’s always on the hunt. A lot of guys take shifts or games off, but every shift, Andrew wants something to happen. I like that in a player. He’s always ready,” Tigers coach Willie Desjardins said.

Carson Wetsch, RW

6-foot, 203 pounds
Calgary (WHL), 67 GP, 25 G, 25 A, 50 PTS

The tenacious winger has a lot of Cowan in his game with his ability to win puck battles and showcase energy all over the ice. Perhaps the Leafs feel they don’t need more of that type of player. But if it’s drive and competitiveness they want, Wetsch fits the bill.

Simon Zether, C

6-foot-3, 176 pounds
Rogle (Sweden), 42 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 PTS

Don’t let the stats fool you: Zether’s size and attention to detail probably make him closer to the pros than you’d think, despite him being low on a lot of public lists. He was 18 playing in Sweden’s top division, too.

There’s notable offence in his game. His skating requires improvement but there’s an intensity to his play that’s attractive. 

Nate Misskey, RHD

6-foot-3, 210 pounds
Victoria (WHL), 44 GP, 7 G, 27 A, 34 PTS

Despite being ranked far lower than 23 on plenty of public draft boards — likely due in part to his slow-ish skating — Misskey brings the typical tools you’d imagine Treliving would covet in a defenceman: he shoots right and has the size to go with his heavy shot. 

(Photo of Brad Treliving and Maple Leafs staff on stage at the 2023 NHL Draft: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)