NHL trade board analysis: Measuring the value of the top trade targets

The NHL season may have officially wrapped up on Monday night but trade season started early this year. 

Names like Jacob Markstrom, Linus Ullmark, PL Dubois and Ryan McDonagh are already off the board. But there should be even more player movement over the next few days and weeks. 

With the unpredictability of trade season and the NHL Draft rapidly approaching, match-making players and teams is a high-risk game that can become invalidated in seconds. Instead, using Chris Johnston’s trade board as a jumping-off point, we’re going to break down the value of some of the top targets and what they bring to a lineup.

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Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs 

Position: Right wing
Contract: 1 year x $10.9 million

Mitch Marner may be one of the biggest stars on the trade market, which is why a lot of teams should be circling the Maple Leafs. There are going to be challenges with this one, from the cost of acquisition to fitting his current (and next) cap hit under the salary cap. 

At his best, Marner is an elite puck mover. He can be counted on to retrieve pucks in his own zone to help turn play from defense to offense. The winger is an all-three-zone player who generally skates up the ice with control to spark his team. In the offensive end, Marner is a dangerous passer who can thread the puck to his teammates. And while his attack slants toward passing, he can kick in some shots and scoring chances of his own.

Marner isn’t just an offensive threat, but usually can be counted on to shut down opponents too even when matching up with top competition. That translates to the penalty kill as well. Most offensive players on the penalty kill tend to be deployed on the second unit on the fly, but Marner tends to be first over the boards while short-handed. 

This year there were some cracks below the surface, though. Marner retrieved fewer pucks, entered the zone at a lower rate (and often without control) and even passed less. At five-on-five, he wasn’t as effective relative to his teammates on either end of the ice. To his credit, after slipping to about break-even in expected goals, by season’s end, Toronto did out-chance opponents with Marner on the ice. And with 89 all-situation points in 69 games, Marner’s scoring rate was only slightly off last year. 

That last season is something interested teams will have to take in stride. So is the fact that he has, at times, wilted in a playoff environment. 

Depending on who is interested, one more consideration should be how he will fare if he goes from the second most valuable player on his team to number one. Can he be the driver of another team’s success, or is he best suited as a secondary star to a team’s centerpiece?

Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes

Position: Right wing, center
Contract: RFA

Martin Necas brings potential to a new lineup, especially if he can channel the best elements of the last two seasons. In 2022-23, he broke out on the score sheet with 28 goals and 71 points. At five-on-five, he was a dual threat who contributed his own scoring chances and primary passes to set up his teammates. He contributed to the Hurricanes’ forechecking identity and added to their rush-based attack. 

There are two key flaws with Necas. The first is that he didn’t follow up that breakout year in terms of scoring this season. The second is that he struggles through some suspect defense.

But there are some positives, even with the negatives.

Necas still did the right things below the surface, especially at five-on-five, even if the results didn’t shine — he still created quality chances, was a reliable passer and brought the puck into the zone with possession at a high rate. He didn’t have as much support around him in the bottom six and had fewer power-play opportunities.

As for his defense, that’s something a team can try to shelter. But his offensive ability and mobile skating can make up for where his game lacks. 

In a new environment, and maybe even a chance to play his natural position of center, the 25-year-old is a player a handful of teams should be trying to bet on. 

Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets

Position: Left wing
Contract: 1 year x $6 million

The biggest problem with Nikolaj Ehlers is how the Jets have used him in recent seasons. Year after year, he’s among the most effective players in Winnipeg and yet his usage doesn’t reflect it. While he’s made the case to be a bona fide top-line player, he tends to be deployed more like a second-liner. Ehlers isn’t a mainstay on the top power-play unit, either, playing just 43 percent of the available minutes this season. 

And yet, Ehlers usually tends to score at one of the highest rates on the team. At five-on-five, he tends to be one of the best play drivers. In each year of his NHL career, he has had a positive influence on the Jets’ expected goal generation relative to his teammates. In all but one season (2018-19), Winnipeg also scored at a higher pace in his minutes. 

At his core, Ehlers is an excellent puck-mover. He tends to help drive play out of the defensive zone and up into the offensive zone with control. The winger is elite at setting his teammates up with high-danger chances. And he creates a number of his own scoring chances, both off the rush and the forecheck. 

Losing Ehlers will be a blow to the Jets, but as The Athletic’s Murat Ates pointed out, the player may not want to extend in Winnipeg next season. A change of scenery could be exactly what he needs if his new team is finally ready to use him to his full capacity. 

Jakob Chychrun, Ottawa Senators

Position: Defense
Contract: 1 year x $4.6 million

Measuring Jakob Chychrun’s true value is a tricky task. He showed what an offensive threat he could be in Arizona before moving to Ottawa. Chychrun was a strong puck mover who excelled at getting the puck out of his own end and up the ice into the offensive zone. His ability to fire the puck, and often through traffic, has helped him score at least a dozen goals three times. 

But that version of Chychrun isn’t always seen. Just take this year, when he was bumped out of sheltered coverage and into a top-four role. His puck retrievals didn’t turn into zone exits as often, and his play in transition suffered. Chychrun exited and entered the zone less, and set up fewer scoring chances for his teammates. And according to Corey Sznajder’s tracking at AllThreeZones, his zone entry defense took a huge hit on top of it, from the 97th percentile in the league down to the eighth. And all of that likely contributed to the Senators allowing more expected and actual goals against in Chychrun’s minutes relative to his teammates. 

The fact that he struggled so much out of a sheltered role could be a red flag for an acquiring team. Maybe it can be chalked up to an Ottawa problem, considering some team-wide defensive issues. But that plus his questionable durability adds even more risk to trading for him; 2023-24 was only the second time in his eight-year career that he played a full season. 

Patrik Laine, Columbus Blue Jackets

Position: Right wing
Contract: 2 years x $8.7 million

If Patrik Laine is known for anything, it’s his lethal shot. It didn’t take him long to put that on display at the NHL level, netting 36 and 44 goals in his first two seasons. 

He just hasn’t reached the 30-goal mark since 2018-19. It isn’t for a lack of trying. The next year he was on pace for 34, but the season was cut short. Fast forward to his Columbus tenure, and he was on track for 28 in 2021-22 and 33 in 2022-23 had he stayed healthy and completed a full season. The 2021-22 season was especially impressive considering some of his supporting cast, with Boone Jenner and Jakub Voracek landing as his most frequent linemates at five-on-five — which is a bit different from say, Mark Schiefele and Ehlers back in 2017. 

That shot is Laine’s best asset and has to be maximized for him to hit his ceiling. But he showed that there is a bit more to his game besides that in Columbus. In 2021-22 and 2022-23, the winger entered the zone with control at a higher rate and sent his teammates more primary passes. A new team has the task of trying to harness that while pushing him to his shooting heights.

With that challenge comes another: Masking some of the defensive woes in his game. The simple answer could be keeping him on the wing instead of continuing the center experiment that the Blue Jackets were trying before Laine got injured. Plus, an acquiring team has to hope that he can stay healthy for a complete season which hasn’t been the case in some time. 

Kaapo Kakko, New York Rangers

Position: Right wing
Contract: 1 year x $2.4 million

The big question heading into the 2023-24 season was whether Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafrenière could become the high-end supporting players the Rangers needed. 

Lafrenière did, with a breakout season spent on his off-wing alongside Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. But Kakko has yet to take that leap just yet. 

After a tough start to his NHL career, Kakko’s play started to trend in the right direction in 2022-23. The scoring wasn’t potent just yet and his usage and lack of power play opportunity contributed to it. But his play below the surface, especially in his own zone, started to improve. He just didn’t build on that enough this past season. 

Instead, it was a similar story to last year. The Rangers were a better team defensively when Kakko was on the ice, but the scoring just wasn’t there. And that’s why he didn’t stick around on a top line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider even when there weren’t many other options to play there. It’s why Lafrenière jumped over him on the depth chart on the right side of the lineup. 

He’s just 22 and at a low cost, Kakko still has the potential to become a difference-maker. He has the raw skills to become the power forward he was projected to be back when the Rangers drafted him at No. 2. But that may not happen in New York. 

Tanner Jeannot, Tampa Bay Lightning

Position: Left wing
Contract: 2 years x $2.7 million

Even if you separate Tanner Jeannot from the cost of acquisition back at the 2022 deadline, his Tampa Bay tenure has fallen far from expectations. Injuries and absences have only slowed Jeannot down, but he has yet to get back to the levels of a promising 2021-22 season in Nashville. 

At his best, Jeannot is a player who can use his size and strength to create scoring chances up the middle of the ice and in the net-front area. That helped him tally 24 goals and 41 points in his last full season in Nashville. Since then? He netted just six goals between the Predators and Lightning in 2022-23, and a total of 18 points. This year, he mustered seven goals and 14 points in 55 games. So technically, his pace was better than the year prior. But his game left a lot to be desired. Jeannot didn’t create a high rate of shots or quality chances or set up his teammates often. While he helped the Lightning get out of the defensive zone, he wasn’t as strong on the forecheck. 

So while Jeannot’s cap hit may not be that much, his bottom-six struggles are a problem on a team as squeezed for cap as Tampa Bay. 

Mike Matheson, Montreal Canadiens

Position: Defense
Contract: 2 years x $4.9 million

With 62 points across 82 games last season, Mike Matheson could be an interesting pickup for a team looking for a spark from the blue line. 

With the Canadiens, he logs a lot of minutes as their No. 1. Is he truly a leading defenseman? Not really. At times he has been over-leveraged in the role. But at the end of the day, he was a stopgap who could play a heavy workload, both in terms of ice time and quality of competition. That allowed some of Montreal’s up-and-coming defensemen to play in more fitting roles until they were ready for more. 

Anywhere else, Matheson probably slots more appropriately on a second pair. Maybe on a really deep team, he is closer to a No. 3/4. In a reduced capacity from his current workload, key elements of his game, like his shot, mobility and anticipation, should be able to shine. Right now, those skills, plus his ability to hold a blue line, are clear on the power play. It just doesn’t always translate to even strength, and it may be as simple as the Canadiens asking too much of him right now. 

Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers

Position: Defense
Contract: 2 years x $8 million

At his best, Jacob Trouba is a physical defenseman who can be passable in matchup minutes. 

At his worst, he’s a high-risk defender whose decisions with and without the puck can prove costly. 

The problem with Trouba is that the numbers don’t always capture just how costly some of his defensive lapses can be. Trouba’s flaws stem from his decision-making, reads in his own zone and turnovers. His zone entry defense this year was a weak point, which contributed to the Rangers allowing more expected and actual goals against relative to his teammates. That physicality not only leads to penalties but can take him out of defensive position. That lack of discipline can burn the Rangers, especially when he is a key part of their penalty kill. And that’s what New York saw this postseason, especially in Round 2 against the Hurricanes and Round 3 against the Panthers. 

Some struggles down the stretch led to him being shifted out of his second-pair role in place of Braden Schneider. While sheltering him down the stretch and early in the postseason seemed to agree with Trouba, a team that wants to pursue a legitimate top-six winger can’t afford an $8 million third-pair defenseman.

Pavel Buchnevich, St. Louis Blues

Position: Right wing
Contract: 1 year x $5.8 million

Pavel Buchnevich has been nothing short of effective in St. Louis. Thanks to his two-way play, he’s been one of the best Blues’ forwards since joining the team. 

Puck-moving is one of the biggest strengths of Buchnevich’s game. He’s a pass-first player who can set up his teammates with a high rate of quality passes. While his game still slants toward playmaking, he also upped his shot volume and quality this season. Plus he forechecks well to help his team extend zone time. 

Over the last few years, Buchnevich’s play away from the puck has developed. So along with bolstering the Blues’ offensive creation in each of the last three seasons, he has also helped their scoring chances suppression. The winger is an all-three zone player who can be trusted in any situation and counted on to turn defense into offense even on the penalty kill. 

Buchnevich brings a lot more value than his current $5.8 million cap hit, and his next contract should reflect that. If the Blues don’t intend to extend him because his timeline doesn’t line up with theirs, he would be a fit on any team looking for a versatile winger. 

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.  

(Top photo of Nikolaj Ehlers and Mitch Marner: Julian Avram / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)