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SPIELBERG, Austria — Twelve months ago, Daniel Ricciardo was regarded as the man to watch in Formula One’s driver market as he pushed to return to the grid.
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His comeback with AlphaTauri (now RB) at the Hungarian Grand Prix in late July was touted as being the first step toward his ultimate goal of getting back to Red Bull, the team he left in 2018. The idea was that he could be driving alongside Max Verstappen as early as 2025.
Yet ahead of Red Bull’s home grand prix in Austria this weekend, not only has that route been shut off for Ricciardo after Sergio Pérez’s contract extension, but the pressure on him to retain his current seat is building as F1’s ‘silly season’ gathers speed.
Thursday brought confirmation that both Pierre Gasly and Lance Stroll will be staying put for 2025 and beyond with Alpine and Aston Martin, respectively. Neither renewal was a shock — especially in Stroll’s case — yet they serve as two extra pieces of the puzzle that have fallen into place.
In the next couple of weeks, the market is only set to accelerate as drivers and teams seek to finalize their futures. And with a few new names looking to make the step up to F1, a couple of current drivers will likely be frozen out of the grid for next year.
The latest on Ricciardo’s future
Besides a few flashes of pace in the Miami sprint race, where he finished fourth, and in Montreal when he qualified fifth, Ricciardo’s season has done little to suggest he can rekindle the form of his race-winning peak back Red Bull through 2014 to 2018.
He’s been outqualified 8-2 and outscored 19-9 by teammate Yuki Tsunoda, who has already been retained by RB for 2025. Given Red Bull has not given serious thought to promoting Tsunoda to its senior squad, for Ricciardo to struggle up against him did little good for the prospect of making the leap up.
Ricciardo’s status as an F1 fan favorite, and one of the stars of “Drive to Survive”, has always led to added interest in his future. He brings an appeal that aligns with RB’s new image from 2024, with Visa and Cash App on board as title sponsors. Yet there’s no substitute for on-track performance.
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Ricciardo has been open about his own shortcomings this season, and the pressure has just been cranked up by Red Bull’s F1 adviser, Helmut Marko, who gave an interview to the Kleine Zeitung newspaper in which he reiterated RB’s status as a team for junior drivers.
“The goal was that he would be considered for Red Bull Racing with exceptional performances,” Marko said of Ricciardo. “That seat now belongs to Sergio Perez, so that plan is no longer valid.” He added they “have to put a young driver in there soon”, which he said would be Liam Lawson, who starred last season when deputizing for the injured Ricciardo.
Ricciardo wasn’t aware of Marko’s comments before arriving in Austria on Thursday, but said he had no feelings about it. “I still know that the overriding thing in this sport is performance, and that’s it,” Ricciardo said. “That’s what will give me my best chance of staying here, I know that. It’s not going to be my smile or anything else. It’s the on-track stuff.”
Ricciardo knows he needs to find consistency, and make results like Miami or Montreal qualifying the norm, not the exception. He denied he’d been set any deadline or ultimatum by Red Bull to up his performance or face being replaced. “There hasn’t been any pressure, ultimatum, nothing like that,” Ricciardo said. “But I’ve been in the sport a long time. I know that if I get my ass kicked every weekend, at some point, someone will be like, ‘Hey mate, step it up, otherwise…’ But I haven’t had that.”
Lawson is set to conduct some private testing with RB soon, but this is understood to have been long in the planning and is not being used to evaluate him against Ricciardo. Nevertheless, Marko is known to rate Lawson extremely highly, even prior to his five-race stint last year. The New Zealander has spent this season serving as the reserve driver for both Red Bull teams.
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Ricciardo said he wasn’t looking at other options in case he loses his RB seat, nor was he worried about possibly dropping off the grid if the rest of the market moves ahead of him. “I don’t want to be casual about it, because obviously I care a lot,” Ricciardo said. “But I don’t know. Maybe I’m at a point where it’s just like, what will be will be.
“I’m just going to put everything I can on the table for effort and performance, and if that is good enough to secure me a seat, great. If not, then OK, I did everything I could.”
Why the market still hinges on Carlos Sainz
While the situation with Ricciardo, Lawson and RB is largely separate, the rest of the market remains on hold while waiting on the decision of one driver: Carlos Sainz.
In Spain, Kevin Magnussen described Sainz as “the cork in the bottle” for the market, which is accurate. Once Sainz (who is losing his Ferrari seat to Lewis Hamilton) decides on his next move, picking between Williams, Sauber (which will become Audi as of 2026) and Alpine, then the rest of the drivers can jostle into the remaining seats.
Sainz remains in no rush to make a decision. He said on Thursday in Austria that a run of three races in three weeks is “not the right time” to pick where he’ll be next season, knowing the decision lies chiefly in his hands. Whatever he does, he’s taking a step down from his current competitive standing at Ferrari. It really depends on what kind of long-term project he sees as the best fit.
It seemed for a while that Sainz had a straight choice between Sauber and Williams for next year, but Alpine’s interest is — and always has been — very serious. All three teams have made Sainz their number one choice for next year. Multiple sources with knowledge of the matter, speaking on condition of anonymity, described Alpine’s push to sign Sainz as “nothing new” despite suggestions interest recently intensified.
Once Sainz takes his decision, then the rest of the grid can try to fall into place.
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Esteban Ocon is already confirmed to be leaving Alpine, and said on Thursday he is in “deep conversations” about his future currently and that “discussions are going well.” Haas is a clear option for Ocon to consider as the team seeks a replacement for Nico Hülkenberg, with Ferrari youngster Oliver Bearman also continuing to impress through his practice cameos for the team should it consider an all-new lineup.
Haas incumbent Kevin Magnussen said he is an “active participant” in silly season, but also talked up the merits of life outside F1. “When I think about my future, it’s not like if I’m not in F1 I feel like it’s going to be a bad life at all,” Magnussen said. “I feel a little bit the opposite.”
Zhou Guanyu said it is “very clear” that he wants to retain his seat at Sauber for next season and referred to “options” he was exploring with his management team. Teammate Valtteri Bottas said he also has a clear order of priorities for next season, but that it all revolved around Sainz: “Somebody else first has to decide where he’s going and that’s going to decide that puzzle, how it’s gonna fall.”
Both Zhou and Bottas were clear they were not yet considering options outside of F1, as is the normal party line for free agents. Tellingly, Williams driver Logan Sargeant admitted he was “exploring all options within and outside of F1 at the moment.”
And what about Max?
It’s strange for a driver who is under contract until 2028 to be part of the driver market discussions. But through Mercedes’ soft pursuit of his signature and with the early-season turbulence at Red Bull, Verstappen’s future has remained a talking point through this year.
Earlier this week, Mercedes CEO Ola Kallenius told Sky Germany that he thought Verstappen would “look good in silver” and talked about the possibility of the competitive order in F1 being reset come 2026, when the new engine regulations will come into force. When F1 made its last major engine change in 2014, Mercedes surged ahead of its rivals, kick-starting its eight-year streak of constructors’ titles.
Verstappen talked on Thursday about the importance of having a competitive car and Red Bull doing the best job possible, and noted his long-term contract. “I’m very happy where I’m at,” Verstappen said. “We are also focusing already on next year with things that we can implement on the car. So I guess that should say enough of where I’m driving next year.”
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When he was asked to give a yes or no if he will be driving for Red Bull next year, Verstappen replied: “You didn’t get that out of my answer before?” He then added: “OK – yes.
“But that’s what I said. I mean, we’re already also working on next year’s car, you know. Yeah, I think when you’re very focused on that, that means that you’re also driving for the team.”
It may be the clearest message yet from Verstappen that he won’t be going anywhere for 2025. But it’s unlikely to quieten Mercedes’ interest for the future.
Top photo of Carlos Sainz and Daniel Ricciardo: Mark Sutton – Formula 1/Formula 1, Vince Mignott/MB Media/Getty Images via Getty Images
