Wimbledon is just around the corner, and the pre-tournament favorites for men’s and women’s singles have not won the tournament before. Jannik Sinner, who is the newly minted No. 1 player in the world, is favored on the men’s side, while Iga Swiatek opened as the favorite to win Wimbledon for the first time. After the draw on Friday morning, Aryna Sabalenka edged out Swiatek as the favorite to win.
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Sinner opened at +160 on BetMGM to win Wimbledon. He won his first Grand Slam at the Australian Open earlier this year and moved into the top spot in the rankings earlier this month. The big Italian made it to the semifinals on grass last year and has been steadily improving in recent years to join the discussion for best player in the world.
The women’s side is more wide open, as has been the case in most tournaments lately. Swiatek opened at +275 on BetMGM, showing less confidence in her than Sinner. But the odds shifted to Sabalenka after Friday’s draw.
Wimbledon women’s singles odds
Both Sabalenka and Swiatek are aiming for their first win at Wimbledon. Sabalenka lost in the semifinals in 2023 to Ons Jabeur. She made it to the quarterfinals at the French Open last month, and that was her worst showing at a Slam since the 2022 French Open. She had made it to at least the semifinals at six straight Slams and has made the semifinals at the last two Wimbledons she participated in (having not been allowed to enter the tournament in 2022 as a Belarusian).
Swiatek’s best showing at Wimbledon was a quarterfinal in 2022. She has been dominant on clay, winning four of the past five French Opens, but has only made two other Slam semifinals. She was knocked out in the semis in Australia in 2022 and won the 2022 U.S. Open. She’s more than capable of winning off of clay, but hasn’t made a grass final in her senior career. Swiatek did win the junior Wimbledon title in 2018.
There are only two former champions in the field with 2022 winner Elena Rybakina third in the odds and Marketa Vondrousova at +4000 after getting paired with Swiatek for a possible quarterfinal. Rybakina is the No. 4 seed at this tournament, but has had mixed results in Slams since winning Wimbledon with four first-week exits to go with three quarterfinal appearances, including making the final at the 2023 Australian Open. Vondrousova is seeking to be the first back-to-back champion since Serena Williams in 2015 and 2016.
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American Coco Gauff is fourth in the odds at +700. Gauff has never made it to a quarterfinal at Wimbledon but has backed up her U.S. Open triumph with semifinal runs at the Australian Open and French Open this year.
Wimbledon men’s singles odds
The men’s favorites didn’t change after the draw. The ever-looming presence of Novak Djokovic is slowly becoming less of a factor in the odds. Djokovic is behind both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Djokovic hasn’t played since tearing the meniscus in his right knee at the French Open, but, at least for now, is expected to play at Wimbledon.
Alcaraz’s five-set win against Djokovic in last year’s final seemed like a symbolic shifting of eras at the time. It’s crazy to think neither is the favorite this year after the quality on display in that match.
Sinner has been that good though. He has won seven titles since last August, including his first Grand Slam title in Australia and a win on grass at the Halle Open earlier this month. He made it to the semis last Wimbledon and lost to Djokovic in straight sets.
After those three, the odds drop off significantly. Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev are among the names in the next tier of contenders.
(Photo of Jannik Sinner: Carmen Jaspersen / AFP via Getty Images)
