If the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement is telling us anything, it’s that the teams that win titles are those that win on the margins of their rosters.
Top-end talent remains key. You can’t win without the elite-level players. But seemingly gone are the days of teams winning championships with top-heavy rosters. Because of the infusion of overall talent in this era, the teams with fleshed-out support surrounding their core players are the ones finding the ultimate success.
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What do we mean here? The Boston Celtics were a terrific team with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown at the core. They became great and borderline unbeatable when they traded for Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis. The Denver Nuggets have always been a terrific team with Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. When they added Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, that quality depth propelled them to the 2023 NBA title.
As we have cleared the two days of relative chaos that was the NBA Draft and hurtle toward the start of the league’s free-agency window on Sunday afternoon, Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth and his front office are tasked with recreating the magic on the margins that put Denver a level above the rest of the league. They lost Brown and Green, and thus the Nuggets lost what helped separate them. We saw it show up with a second-round playoff loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2024.
Now, with Jokić in the middle of his prime, and Murray gaining momentum toward signing a mega contract extension, how can Booth and the Nuggets get the roster back to where it needs to be?
It’s both Denver’s biggest question and the biggest challenge the Nuggets are going to face.
Denver is fighting to stay out of the NBA’s second apron, which would trigger crippling financial restrictions, such as the inability to aggregate salaries in a trade, or the ability to include cash in a trade. But doing so likely means allowing starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to leave as an unrestricted free agent.
Denver’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is declining his $15.4 million player option for the 2024-25 season to become a free agent, sources tell me and @Tjonesonthenba. Caldwell-Pope – a two-time NBA champion – is expected to receive interest from multiple teams with salary cap space. pic.twitter.com/R1P8fhqBfn
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 27, 2024
As first reported by The Athletic on Thursday, Caldwell-Pope is declining his player option to test the market. where he has significant interest. This puts the Nuggets in a precarious spot. Denver, as Booth told reporters on Wednesday night after the first round of the draft, remains significantly interested in keeping Caldwell-Pope and will do what it can to keep him on the roster.
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Doing so will be difficult, even as the Nuggets maintain the ability to exceed any offer, thanks to holding Caldwell-Pope’s Bird rights. If KCP doesn’t return, this would mark the second consecutive offseason that Denver’s suffered a major loss to its rotation. Brown’s departure has been talked about consistently. Caldwell-Pope walking in free agency may be even more difficult to navigate.
There simply aren’t many elite-level defenders in the league who can also shoot the way Caldwell-Pope does, and that two-way ability certainly doesn’t exist on the roster. Christian Braun is ready to step in as a starter, Booth said. But as good a defender, as athletic and as big as he is, Braun doesn’t shoot the ball like Caldwell-Pope. Braun won’t carry the same gravity in an offense that thrives off gravity and spacing around Jokić and Murray. The Nuggets hope 2023 first-round pick Julian Strawther proves ready for an increase in minutes. He has pop off the dribble that Caldwell-Pope doesn’t possess. But he’s also nowhere near the defender either, and one of the things that made Denver so good was its ability to lock down defensively on the wings.
Booth has started preparing, namely salary dumping point guard Reggie Jackson in a trade to the Charlotte Hornets, a deal that proved expensive, as it cost the Nuggets three future unprotected second-round picks. But if it helps Denver keep Caldwell-Pope, then it will be worthwhile.
The Nuggets drafted DaRon Holmes II in the first round, and Holmes, an athletic center out of Dayton, may play a significant role in his rookie season. He’s almost instantly the best rim protector on the roster. He’s one of the best rebounders in the draft. He handles the ball well for a big, he can shoot it and he served as an offensive hub at Dayton. The latter strength is an important one, because he theoretically allows the Nuggets to run the same kind of offense when Jokić is on the bench.
Booth homed in on Holmes early in the draft process and traded up in the first round to get him. He was transparent about his interest in Holmes. The bottom line is that Jokić needs a reliable backup, particularly in the regular season. The Nuggets were hoping that would be Zeke Nnaji, but that hasn’t panned out. DeAndre Jordan is expected to be back on next year’s roster, but he’s a locker-room leader at this point of his long and fruitful career.
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One of the reasons the Nuggets didn’t get past the Timberwolves was Jokić wearing down as the series progressed. In the end, it was clear Denver asked too much of its superstar, but it wasn’t sudden wear and tear. It was collective. Jokić, when he plays, handles the ball in some manner on almost every possession. In the postseason, it’s more important than ever that he plays to the same level on both ends of the floor.
As Jokić progresses in his prime — he will be 30 next February — Denver’s got to lessen the wear and tear during the regular season. That’s where the Nuggets hope Holmes comes in. If he can spell Jokić solidly for even 12-14 minutes a night, the Nuggets will be a better team come playoff time because Jokić will be a fresher player. Booth has been aware of this, and he and Denver’s front office hope Holmes solves what has become a relatively silent but evident issue.
With free agency on the way, the Nuggets are examining everything from potential trades to scouring the market for cheap but solid reinforcements at the back end of the rotation. For the Nuggets, those are the margins, and those are the battles that Booth and his staff will have to win. Denver knows it’s in the championship mix and capable of winning a title next season.
But how do the Nuggets get back to being a level above the rest of the league?
The rest of the offseason should provide answers, one way or the other.
(Photo of DaRon Holmes II: Catalina Fragoso / NBAE via Getty Images)
