Florida State’s 2015 recruiting class was highly ranked and, in hindsight, highly overrated

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Barring an unexpected National Signing Day splash Wednesday, Florida State will finish with a recruiting class ranked outside the consensus top 10. It’ll be the first time since the 2008 (12th) and ’09 (11th) classes that the Seminoles have back-to-back classes outside the top 10.

FSU’s class was ranked 11th last year, and this year’s class currently is 16th in the 247Sports Composite rankings, though that should improve a bit on NSD.

But while the star-based recruiting system is widely used among coaches, reporters and fans alike, it isn’t foolproof. All you have to do is look at the Seminoles’ 2015 recruiting class.

The class was ranked third nationally and appeared to be loaded; it had four five-star players, 10 four-star players and six three-star players. It had four national top-20 prospects, five top-50 prospects, eight top-100 recruits and 12 top-300 guys. For the most part, though, the players failed to live up to the hype.

Five-star safety Derwin James was the class’ highest-ranked player; he was a college star and appears on his way to NFL stardom after making the Pro Bowl as a rookie this season after being drafted in the first round by San Diego. But he will be the lone first-rounder out of the class. Indeed, its possible that just three players are drafted at all from the class.

Four players from the class have college eligibility remaining: four-star quarterback Deondre Francois, five-star wide receiver George Campbell, four-star offensive tackle Abdul Bello and three-star guard Cole Minshew. But Francois was dismissed from the team over the weekend after video of an alleged domestic abuse incident emerged. Campbell, who has 13 receptions in three seasons, appears ready to transfer. Bello looks destined to be a backup in 2019 after a bad 2018 campaign. If healthy, Minshew — who was the second-lowest-rated prospect in the class — should be a starter along the offensive line.

Three class members finished their eligibility in 2018: four-star running back Jacques Patrick, three-star safety A.J. Westbrook and three-star wide receiver Nyqwan Murray (the lowest-ranked prospect in the class). While each had a solid college career, none is a lock to be drafted.

Francois was the third member of the class to be dismissed. Fellow quarterback De’Andre Johnson, a three-star prospect, was dismissed shortly after arriving on campus in 2015 after a video showed him punching a woman at a bar. Four-star wide receiver Da’Vante Phillips was suspended indefinitely in 2017 following five felony charges and eventually was dismissed in 2018; he had five receptions for 30 yards in his two seasons.

Jimbo Fisher and his staff reeled in what look to be a star-studded class in 2015. The class did not live up to expectations. (Logan Bowles / USA TODAY Sports)

Junior college transfer linebacker Lorenzo Phillips, a four-star prospect, made 11 tackles in 2015, but he was deemed to have exhausted his eligibility before the 2016 season. Four-star linebacker Sh’Mar Kilby-Lane was ruled academically ineligible in 2016 and left the program in 2017; he had four tackles in his FSU career. Four-star cornerback Marcus Lewis decided to transfer in 2017; he had 21 tackles, an interception and two pass breakups at FSU. Four-star safety Calvin Brewton transferred in 2018; he made six tackles while with the Seminoles.

Two players — four-star defensive tackle Darvin Taylor and three-star guard David Robbins — were medically disqualified in 2018. Robbins played in three games in his FSU career, and Taylor never played a down.

Joining James in turning pro following the 2017 season were five-star defensive end Josh Sweat, five-star cornerback Tavarus McFadden, four-star wide receiver Auden Tate and three-star defensive end Jalen Wilkerson, who signed as a tight end. Sweat had 14.5 sacks and 138 tackles in his three seasons. McFadden had eight interceptions — all in 2016 — and 16 pass breakups. Tate had 65 receptions and 16 touchdowns. Wilkerson had 22 tackles and 0.5 sacks.

Sweat, who was a top-10 prospect in the class, and Tate were taken in the fourth and seventh rounds, respectively, in the 2018 NFL Draft. Sweat made one tackle this season with Philadelphia, and Tate had six catches for Cincinnati. McFadden, who was a top-15 player in the class, went undrafted and signed a futures contract with the San Francisco 49ers last month. Wilkerson is looking to catch on with a team.

The five players’ decisions to declare early likely were impacted by the coaching change from Jimbo Fisher to Willie Taggart after the 2017 season. By the time FSU played its first game under Taggart, just seven players from the 2015 recruiting class remained.

Players from the 2015 class combined to start 43 games for FSU in 2018. Murray was the best of the group, leading the team with 54 catches and tying for the team-high with 744 yards. Westbrook was third on the team with 65 tackles but struggled mightily in man-to-man coverage and blew several assignments on the back end, leading to huge gains for opposing offenses. Minshew played well when healthy but missed four games with a neck stinger. Francois had a bumpy season, completing 57.3 percent of his passes for 2,731 yards, with 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Bello started two games but was overmatched whenever he was on the field. Campbell started one game and finished the season with four catches. Patrick started two games and rushed for 378 yards and one touchdown.

The lackluster results from the 2015 class are a lesson that recruiting results don’t always correlate. That’s what the Seminoles’ coaching staff is hoping for from back-to-back classes that many would deem disappointing.

The 2018 class produced one immediate starter in linebacker Jaiden Woodbey and one part-time starter in cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. Nose tackle Robert Cooper, cornerback A.J. Lytton and wide receivers Keyshawn Helton and Tre’Shaun Harrison played a lot, and running back Anthony Grant and defensive end Xavier Peters showed promise. On top of that, several others who didn’t see the field or were injured are set to enter the rotation this fall.

As for the 2019 class, it’s the No. 2 class in the ACC and looks to have several players who could play a lot right away, including four-star cornerback Akeem Dent and four-star guard Dontae Lucas. There are issues at quarterback and along the offensive line, but the class has addressed needs at all three levels defensively.

Still, regardless of how FSU finishes Wednesday, the 2015 class is a prime example that it may not be wise to overreact one way or the other.

(Top photo of George Campbell by Don Juan Moore / Getty Images)