The news landed with a thud, shocking those within the organization as well as those watching from afar. The Broncos agreed to trade for veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, all but ending Case Keenum’s short stint as their starter and beginning yet another cycle of uncertainty for the Broncos.
“I was definitely shocked,” Keenum told Jason Romano while a guest on Sports Spectrum’s podcast. “It was a surprise for (Keenum and his wife) and I think probably for the first day or so that’s kind of what it was. But for us, we’re definitely disappointed. It’s not something we wanted to happen. I know that everybody’s doing their job and (general manager) John (Elway) feels like that was a chance for him to help the Broncos out.”
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Since Peyton Manning retired in 2016, Denver has rotated through four different starting quarterbacks and, in Flacco, will feature their fifth.
While they have a starter, for now, they have yet to reveal their long-term plan at the position — much of which may still depend on how they incorporate Flacco into their books and what they ultimately do with Keenum.
Keenum appears bound for his fourth NFL team in as many years. The Broncos are expected to shop him and mull releasing him outright if they can’t find a suitor. It will cost them; he has $10 million in dead money and depending on how he leaves Denver — if he leaves — the Broncos will be on the hook for at least $3 million against their cap.
Keenum conceded that he isn’t sure what will happen. A number of scenarios are in play, each affecting him and the Broncos differently. But he spoke to Romano in the past tense, as if he believes his time is up in Denver, despite the one year remaining on his contract.
“I know my time with the Broncos has been really special. I enjoyed every second of it,” he said. “… It’s really open-ended right now.”
The Broncos began the offseason with around $40 million projected salary-cap space. But that figure will fluctuate once the acquisition of Flacco becomes official, if/when they release linebacker Brandon Marshall, what they do with Keenum and how they handle the contracts of other veterans.
But to gain a better sense of the Broncos’ options following their quarterback shuffle, The Athletic asked two salary-cap experts — Joel Corry, a former sports agent and current analyst for CBS Sports, and Jason Fitzgerald, the founder of OvertheCap.com and a co-author of “Crunching Numbers” — to weigh in.
Does Keenum have a trade market if teams expect the Broncos to cut him if there’s no deal?
Corry: That becomes a problem because when team’s know you’re going to cut somebody, unless they desperately want the guy and they don’t want to see him have potential bidders on the open market, they’ll make a trade for him. But last year I didn’t think there could be any way the Rams could trade Tavon Austin, but they did. I figured who would want him? He took a pay cut and they lopped off years off his contract, but the fact that the Rams got anything (from the Cowboys) for Tavon Austin was a major surprise.
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Is there any chance the Broncos retain Keenum, and if not, what are his odds of getting a starting job in 2019?
Corry: You can’t have a backup quarterback making $18 million, and why would he want to stay to back up Flacco? He wants an opportunity to compete for a job. The fact that they traded for Flacco is an indictment on Keenum.
It only takes one team to like a guy. Let’s say Eli Manning is no longer with the Giants. (Keenum) played for (Pat) Shurmur — and played well. So Keenum could be their short-term solution up there because I’m assuming they’re using their first-round pick on a quarterback and he could be the bridge guy.
Fitzgerald: The coach (Shurmur) is familiar with him and then you look at the receiving corps they have with (Odell) Beckham and (Sterling) Shepard and the tight end position. That might be a situation, if there’s a team like that looking for a quarterback that has some skill position guys and has a need, they might turn to him to be a starter. But otherwise, he’ll probably be coming in to compete for a starting job I would think.
He won’t even get that in Denver.
What are the Broncos’ best bets to fill out the quarterback room?
Corry: They probably should prepare for Flacco not being there all three years. And that’s one of the reasons why I don’t think they’re going to restructure the contract because if you do nothing, if Flacco doesn’t pan out, you cut him next year and there’s no dead money. They didn’t go quarterback last year, which turned out to be wise as good as Bradley Chubb was in some respects. But you have to get a younger guy in there, if not this year then next year. Maybe they trade down from 10 and still target a quarterback and pick up more picks if they think that’s possible. Or they just stay put and take a quarterback at 10. But at some point, you have to find a long-term solution at quarterback. Flacco is a stopgap, whether it’s one, two or all three years.
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Fitzgerald: My thought would be that they’re bringing in Flacco because Flacco can help them win this year and make the most out of the defense that they have and the running game and everything else, but that they still should be looking at drafting a quarterback with a high pick if there’s one that’s out there. You have him sit on the bench for a year, and if he’s forced into action this year, he’s forced into action. If he’s not and Flacco plays well and is healthy, great. Then you worry about it next year.
We’ll probably know more about that when the trade is actually finalized between the Ravens and the Broncos, and then see if they do anything with Flacco’s contract. Are they going to look to create cap room with his contract by pushing money into the future? Do they look to reduce his salary but in turn maybe guarantee him two years? I think when we see that we’ll get a better idea as to what their plan is for the draft. If they make any kind of move that makes you think Flacco is going to be there for more than a season, they’re probably not looking at the draft this year. I think that’s a mistake, but I wouldn’t say the Flacco trade means they won’t look at the draft at all.
The Broncos have a number of other needs this year. Are there certain positions you believe are better to fill through free agency than in the draft?
Corry: One thing we know they don’t need is a running back. Receiver, it’s not going to be the best year for the draft in receivers, like last year. Which suggests that if you’re going to get a receiver, you’re going to overpay in free agency for one. The group of guys in free agency, you don’t have any marquee prospects. The best two guys are Golden Tate, who is a little bit older, and probably Tyrell Williams from the Chargers.
I have a feeling that Tyrell Williams might be the guy who gets the best deal because he’s a tall, deep threat, whereas Golden Tate is over 30 and he’s more of a slot guy. If you can stretch a defense, you typically get paid more than someone who is a possession slot guy.
I look at it this way: Sammy Watkins surprised me last year. I didn’t think there was in any stretch of the imagination that someone would pay him $16 million per year. So I’m looking at Tyrell Williams to get $13 million, $14 million, maybe $15 million. … If you’re going to bring him in to be your primary wide-receiving threat, he’s probably going to be looking for that territory. If he can get it, that’s a different story. But that’s probably where he’s going to be targeting.
Fitzgerald: If you look at the available talent that comes out in free agency, you never see quarterbacks in free agency, you never see elite pass-rushers in free agency, usually you don’t see the best left tackles in free agency, you don’t see the best cornerbacks in free agency. Those are the positions you really should always be drafting. Wide receiver would be another one.
If you look at safeties, like this year is a great year to find good safeties in free agency, you can always find starting linebackers in free agency. Not pass-rushing linebackers, but your inside linebackers, your traditional 4-3 players. Defensive tackles, a lot of times you can find in free agency. I think those are the positions you should probably not focus on in the draft. You use free agency on those kinds of positions and use the draft to fill out those premier positions that never become available.
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What do you think they do with Emmanuel Sanders coming off an Achilles injury?
Corry: $1.5 million (of Sanders’ salary) is only guaranteed if they pick up the option (for 2019). They can not pick up his option and save $10.2 million on the cap. The only way there would be any liability is if he can’t play next year. Then the injury protection benefit under the CBA would come into effect and is going to pay him about $1.2 million, should it get to that. Obviously, he would sign and play elsewhere.
But I figured you’re getting rid of either Emmanuel or Demaryius (Thomas). Not both. You obviously traded Demaryius, you love (Courtland) Sutton, so you got one more year on Emmanuel’s contract. I think they probably pick up his option.
Fitzgerald: I think they’ll pick up his option. He’s the best receiver on the team. I know he’s probably going to start on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list. It’s always a little hit-or-miss, touch-and-go with the Achilles and how people come back and how long it’s going to take to come back from that. I think they’ll give it a shot and see what will happen. If you don’t keep him, then you’re really starting to make wide receiver a bigger need. Even if he’s going to miss the first six weeks of the season, at least you’re going to have him for the (rest) of the year when you’re hopefully making a playoff run.
How about guard Ron Leary, who is also coming off an Achilles injury and has two years left on his deal?
Corry: That’s where the injury comes into play. He’s got $5.35 million guaranteed for injury. I don’t know when he’s going to be able to pass a physical, but that $5.35 million becomes fully guaranteed on St. Patrick’s Day (March 17). That’s going to be a tough one to try to get rid of. I think they’re kind of stuck with him. Plus, the line is not a strong position anyway. (Jared) Veldheer is going to be free, your center is going to be free. You may need a little continuity.
Fitzgerald: If that injury guarantee is going to kick him, they’re going to keep him. That’s a lot to pay. It’s all based on being able to pass a physical by a certain vesting date.
That might be the best option that they have. It’s not that much different than trading for Veldheer last year, someone who has been banged up. But it was the best option that they had and the only way they could really fill out that position. I would think (Leary) is probably safe.
Do you think they try to re-sign Veldheer since the market for tackles is pretty thin?
Corry: I think they’re trying to go more than serviceable, but you’re right, it’s not going to be a great tackle market. Donovan Smith probably should get franchise-tagged by Tampa. I’d say the best right tackle on the market is coming off an injury, Daryl Williams. They’re not going to franchise him in Carolina, so maybe make a run at him.
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You could make a run at Trenton Brown. That’s kind of like buyer beware. His postseason was better than his regular season, but he can play either left or right tackle. He was a right tackle in San Francisco and left tackle for the Patriots. But that’s going to be very expensive.
What I wouldn’t be surprised at is, if you’re going to keep Leary, maybe he shifts to right guard and because of who you brought in — Mike Munchak — (sign) Ramon Foster, a little bit older. Guys like their own guys. Maybe you make a run at Ramon Foster. Rodger Saffold is going to be more expensive and he said he’d stay in L.A. (Rams) if he’s treated fairly. I don’t know exactly what that means, but it’s hard to find linemen in the draft usually. Indianapolis did it this year. But colleges aren’t producing NFL-ready linemen for the most part like they used to. So that’s why you see guys hit the open market and get overpaid. Like Ryan Jensen, a one-year starter in Baltimore becomes the highest-paid center.
Fitzgerald: I think they might only because there are not a lot of guys out there. They’ve been a little hesitant to go into the bigger-money players, and this year is not great anyways. It’s basically Daryl Williams and Ja’Wuan James and you’re probably looking at $8 million to $9 million a year for those guys.
Veldheer is a question mark. He does get hurt a lot. I think if they can get him for cheap enough for one year, maybe $4 million or $5 million, $6 million, that probably makes some sense for them. I think they would probably do that over getting into a bidding war over one of those more expensive guys.
What is the market value for Ramon Foster?
Corry: He’s overshadowed by David DeCastro. A little bit older. But we saw the serviceable offensive guard market is $5.5 million to $6 million with Mark Glowinski re-signing with Indianapolis. Even though Foster is older, I’d say it’s going to be more than that. You may end up going $7 million, $7.5 million for someone like that. Short-term deal.
Fitzgerald: It’s not a great year for offensive line in general in free agency. (Foster) is probably a player that I would guess they look at as being somewhere between $4 million and $6 million maybe, but the market might push them considerably higher, in which case I would imagine Denver would not get involved. In terms of just someone being familiar with someone, it makes sense for them to look at something like that.
What do you see as the framework for Matt Paradis’ next deal, and could the Broncos afford to keep him?
Corry: You’re going to be up in the double-digits. He hadn’t missed any games outside of last year, so he plays through everything. I understand the concern about injuries (hip surgeries, leg), but his agents are gonna go, “What hips? He doesn’t miss games for the most part.” And they’re going to call last year’s injury a fluke. He’s better than Justin Britt, who got right in the $9 million (per year) range, and Brandon Linder ($10.3 million in average annual salary). And Ryan Jensen was not very good last year. Paradis is going to be looking for top-of-the-market money.
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Fitzgerald: I have him between $10 million and $11 million per year. But I don’t think that he’ll get that long-term deal. A lot of times we hear about people signing contracts that are $10 million, $11 million, and they’re usually four- or five-year deals. He’s a bit on the older side, especially for a first-time free agent, he’s coming off an injury. So I think you may see something that is shorter term, like a three-year deal, and maybe the guarantees won’t necessarily be mind-blowing the way that they would be on a similar-sized contract for someone who is 27 years old and signed to a five-year deal.
How about tight end? The Broncos have Jake Butt coming off an injury, Troy Fumagalli didn’t play as a rookie and Jeff Heuerman is headed for free agency. Are the Broncos better off looking in the draft or free agency for help there?
Corry: It’s a good year for the draft, but if familiarity brings comfort, Jesse James could be a possibility. Or if you want to go out and make a run at a boom-or-bust guy, Tyler Eifert. When he was healthy, which was rarely, he was mentioned in the same class of the guys that came in with him — Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce. But he hasn’t been healthy for three years. That would be a one-year, incentive-laden deal.
Fitzgerald: With that position and the way things have gone recently, I think you would probably look in the draft, only because the salaries have kind of gotten ridiculous to where it doesn’t matter what the player has or hasn’t done. It seems like everybody earns somewhere between $6 million and $8 million a year and there’s no point usually in signing most of those players. If you look at a lot of those tight ends in the last couple of years that have had those deals, you just kind of scratch your head and say, “How is Dwayne Allen worth this? How is Charles Clay worth that? How is Jermaine Gresham worth that?” Trey Burton had a decent enough year, but if you look at where he came from in Philadelphia, basically doing nothing for a couple years, where do these guys all come from to get that money?
I would think you’d probably look in the mid rounds of the draft and hope to uncover somebody that can jump in and become a competent player within a year or two.
Let’s move to defense. C.J. Mosley’s name comes up quite a bit. Could the Broncos afford him?
Corry: With the way they structured deals, when they had that one big defensive spending spree (in 2014), when they decided they needed a defense instead of having Peyton carry everything, which ended up being smart, the first-year cap numbers weren’t that big because they didn’t have huge signing bonuses. It would be something that you can consider, but it’s going to be top-of-the-market money. Baltimore is an option (to re-sign him). I don’t think they’ll franchise him because that number for a non-pass rusher is a little bit pricey.
Fitzgerald: I’m sure he’d be a good fit. But could they afford him? I don’t really remember them going into free agency too often and really snagging players that would probably be that kind of price. You’re talking probably somewhere between $10 million and $12 million a year. For a linebacker, that’s a lot of money. I don’t know if they would go there. They already have some money invested in the position. They’ll get rid of Marshall and that will open up a spot, but to me that seems high for where I usually picture the Broncos usually being.
So I would lean toward no on Mosley unless they just decide that they’re going to be real aggressive on taking one player in free agency this year, and that’s one player that might fit the bill.
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Any obvious candidates you think they should target to fill the hole at cornerback?
Corry: I’d really look for Vic Fangio to get some of his Bears guys. Two come to mind: Bryce Callahan, a nickel corner. If you get him, then Chris Harris will play on the outside more and you really need corners because Bradley Roby is free. And Adrian Amos, a strong safety.
There’s a guy in the division that got picked on a lot with varying degrees of success and probably won’t be back in Kansas City: Steven Nelson. But it’s not necessarily a great year for cornerbacks. You’re not going to have a Stephon Gilmore or Kyle Fuller out there this year, or an A.J. Bouye. Those guys don’t exist this year.
Fitzgerald: They could look at somebody like (Callahan). He’ll be one of the better players that’s available. He’s might be the first- or second-rated cornerback actually. The Broncos will have their own decision that they’ll have to make on Roby. Do they want to look to maybe bringing him back for a year or something like that? That’s always a possibility, just to see if he can maybe have a better season with a different staff. He should be motivated — he should have been motivated last year and obviously didn’t have a good year.
The corners this year probably aren’t going to be ridiculously expensive because the Broncos are going to have to worry about extending Harris this year or next year, and he won’t be cheap. They won’t get the same kind of bargain deal on him that they got this last go around.
What is the framework for a Chris Harris extension?
Corry: Considering you don’t have any corners — one is going to be free (Roby) and one you traded to the Rams (Aqib Talib). He really did himself a disservice last time around when he consciously left money on the table. I don’t think he wants to do that again. I would say Casey Hayward (he signed a three-year, $34.25 million extension last year that included $20 million guaranteed and an average annual salary of $11.4 million per year) is really his floor. He’s a guy who can play slot — or, he used to play slot until the Chargers got Desmond King — more so than outside. Not the biggest guy in the world.
But Chris Harris may be looking for one big cash-grab and thinking, “Hey, I’m a top cornerback. I’m a regular all-pro, Pro Bowl candidate. I should be in the $14 million, $15 million range.”
Fitzgerald: (Hayward) is probably going to be his floor. I think he’ll get more than Hayward. They gave him such a good deal the last time. The Broncos had to be doing cartwheels when he accepted the deal. That was one of the more shocking deals I’ve seen signed.
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Hayward is at $11.5 million. You have Darius Slay at $12 million and Malcolm Butler at $12.3 million per year. (Harris) is probably going to be in the $12 million range. It’s not his first run in free agency, so I’d be surprised if he gets into the 13s, 14s. But you never know.
Two other candidates whose futures with the Broncos aren’t necessarily certain are defensive end Derek Wolfe and safety Darian Stewart. You think they stay or go?
Corry: Stewart is why you might be bringing in Amos. Wolfe, you have the whole option-pickup thing as well. But you probably want to keep him. But Stewart — you got young safeties, too. He could be vulnerable.
Fitzgerald: I think Wolfe will be back. I think they’ll pick up his option. He’s a solid enough player. This is the last year of his contract, so they can probably let him play it out and decide what they want to do with him at the end of the season.
I think Stewart is going to be impacted if the Broncos decide they want to go into free agency and look for a safety. It’s a pretty big year for safeties. Not necessarily that they’re going to be cheap, the way that they were last year. But I think there are going to be a lot of good safeties this year, and if they think there are enough players out there, I think Stewart is one they move on from. Maybe some people would be a little surprised by that. But I think they potentially move on from him and go get a better player. He’s going to cost around $5 million this year (in salary) and they’d save about $3.6 million on the cap if they move him. That might be one of the spots on defense where they could get a longer-term upgrade through free agency.
So is safety a position where you see the Broncos making a splashier signing? Maybe Earl Thomas?
Corry: I don’t see the injury affecting (Thomas) at all. He was playing at a defensive-player-of-the-year level before he got hurt. He was the highest-paid safety when he signed and he’s probably not going to want to deviate much from that. He’s going to be looking at top-of-the-market money.
Fitzgerald: I think Earl Thomas would probably be too old. But the kid from the Bears (Amos) and Landon Collins will be a free agent, you have Tre Boston. There are a couple good guys who are going to be out there. It’s a deep position this year.
The only thing I would say about Earl Thomas — and that certainly would be a flashy signing — is I don’t know if they would look at his age (29) and say, “With the injuries, the age and the kind of money he’s looking for, we can get someone who is three or four years younger for a similar price or a little cheaper and not have to deal with some of that stuff.”
(Photo: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)