2023 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Each Team’s Path to the Postseason
The Upshot’s 2023 N.F.L. playoff simulator. See all teamsRead the methodology, or
2023 N.F.L. Playoff Picture:
Each Team’s Path to the Postseason
| Div. | Team | Record | Change in playoffs, last 5 weeks |
Make playoffs |
Win division |
Round 1 bye |
Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC East |
Dolphins ✓ | 11-5 | 100% | 53% | 0% | 4% | |
| AFC East |
Bills ✓ | 10-6 | 100% | 47% | 0% | 7% | |
| AFC East |
Jets ✗ | 7-10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| AFC East |
Patriots ✗ | 4-13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| AFC North |
Ravens ✓ | 13-4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 26% | |
| AFC North |
Browns ✓ | 11-6 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 2% | |
| AFC North |
Steelers ✓ | 10-7 | 100% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC North |
Bengals ✗ | 9-8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| AFC South |
Texans ✓ | 10-7 | 100% | 100% | 0% | <1% | |
| AFC South |
Jaguars ✗ | 9-8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| AFC South |
Colts ✗ | 9-8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| AFC South |
Titans ✗ | 6-11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| AFC West |
Chiefs ✓ | 10-6 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 4% | |
| AFC West |
Broncos ✗ | 8-8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| AFC West |
Raiders ✗ | 7-9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| AFC West |
Chargers ✗ | 5-11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NFC East |
Cowboys ✓ | 11-5 | 100% | 83% | 0% | 8% | |
| NFC East |
Eagles ✓ | 11-5 | 100% | 17% | 0% | 3% | |
| NFC East |
Giants ✗ | 5-11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NFC East |
Commanders ✗ | 4-12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NFC North |
Lions ✓ | 12-5 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 2% | |
| NFC North |
Packers ✓ | 8-8 | 58% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC North |
Bears ✗ | 7-9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NFC North |
Vikings ✗ | 7-10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NFC South |
Bucs ✓ | 9-8 | 100% | 100% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC South |
Saints | 9-8 | 21% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC South |
Falcons ✗ | 7-10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NFC South |
Panthers ✗ | 2-15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| NFC West |
49ers ✓ | 12-4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 41% | |
| NFC West |
Rams ✓ | 9-7 | 100% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC West |
Seahawks | 8-8 | 22% | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| NFC West |
Cardinals ✗ | 4-12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
The N.F.L. Playoff Picture, Team by Team
The Miami Dolphins (11-5) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Buffalo Bills (10-6) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Patriots have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Baltimore Ravens (13-4) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Cleveland Browns (11-6) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Bengals have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Houston Texans (10-7) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Jaguars have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Colts have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Broncos have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Raiders have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Chargers have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Dallas Cowboys (11-5) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Giants have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Commanders have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Detroit Lions (12-5) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Green Bay Packers (8-8) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Vikings have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) have clinched a playoff berth.
The New Orleans Saints (9-8) beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, yet their chances of making the playoffs dropped to 21 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.
The Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Panthers have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The San Francisco 49ers (12-4) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Los Angeles Rams (9-7) have clinched a playoff berth.
The Seattle Seahawks (8-8) lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 22 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.
The Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention.
How the {TEAM_CITY} {TEAM_NAME} Can Make the 2023 N.F.L. PlayoffsThrough Week {TEAM_WEEK}
Likeliest Playoff Positions
| SCENARIO | PROBABILITY |
|---|---|
| Bye week 0% | |
| Host wild card 0% | |
| Wild card 0% | |
| Out 100% |
End-of-Season Outcomes
| RecordChance this happens | Chance to make the playoffs |
|---|
Division Standings
| Record in Common Games |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall | Div. | {TEAM_NAME} | Opp. |
The Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The table below represents the Cardinals’ remaining games. Pick a winner and see what happens to the Cardinals’ playoff chances:
As you pick winners, the colors on some games will change, reflecting their relative importance. Explore other possibilities, like a first-round bye or a division title, right here:
The tables below represent every N.F.L. game remaining. Pick winners and explore which games matter most to the Cardinals’ chances.
With 8 games remaining, there are 256 different ways the N.F.L. regular season could end.
So we built this simulator. Most calculators force you to choose the winners of each remaining game. Here, you can choose the outcomes of just a few games and see how your team’s chances grow or shrink.
We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often the Cardinals make the playoffs.
If you don’t specify an outcome for a particular game, we use an Elo rating system combined with information from betting markets to estimate each team’s chances of winning. (For simplicity, we assume each game has an equally small chance — one in 200 — of ending in a tie.)