Why Most ‘Deals’ Aren’t Actually Worth It

For even the savviest of online shoppers, figuring out if you’re actually getting the best deal possible can sometimes be a little tricky. Retailers have their own pricing strategies and algorithms, prices can get inflated right before a sale, and it’s easy to start second-guessing yourself: “Did I really check every website that sells this product? Is there an elusive coupon code that I missed? Should I just wait and buy that mattress on a holiday weekend? What exactly is MSRP?”

To make navigating deals easier, knowledge is power. “Smart shopping is critical shopping,” Wirecutter Deals senior editor Nathan Burrow says. “Go into a shopping experience just making sure you have your bases covered. Do your due diligence as a shopper, do some comparison shopping, and approach that sale price with a healthy skepticism.”

To offer a little more guidance as you attempt to make your most informed purchases, we’ve collected some pointers to help steer you in the right, money-saving direction.

Learn the lingo

In order to have a clearer picture of how a retailer sets prices, it helps to know what terms like MSRP (manufacturer’s suggested retail price) mean. Some companies keep this information under wraps, while others, such as Amazon and Best Buy, are more transparent about it.

Amazon, for example, may display a “List Price,” which is the suggested retail price of a product as determined by a manufacturer, supplier, or seller, as well as a “Was Price,” which the retailer calculates based on the 90-day median price that Amazon customers paid for the item. If an item’s current price is the lowest it has been in 30 days, Amazon may tag it as such. Always remember: Just because an item is in your cart at one price doesn’t mean that’s what you’ll pay once you’re ready to check out. Amazon prices aren’t reserved, and they can fluctuate in the blink of an eye.

For certain products, Best Buy also states a “Reg.” price and a “Was” price, the latter of which it determines based on the recent price history on BestBuy.com. If a product has an introductory price prior to or within a few weeks of its release date, the “Was” price reflects the price it will be sold at once the introductory period ends. Best Buy also notes that when it is the first retailer to lower the price on an item, other retailers sometimes drop their prices, as well. When that happens, Best Buy may further decrease its price to stay competitive.

The Wirecutter Deals team uses an item’s “street price,” rather than its MSRP, as a baseline. The street price is the typical price they see, or the average non-sale price.

Wirecutter’s top portable Bluetooth speaker pick, the Ultimate Ears Wonderboom 2, is a good example. Historically it has bounced between $80 and $100 with regularity. As a result, we consider its street price to be $85 to $90, rather than the $100 full price that most retailers claim.

“It’s important that we’re not overrepresenting the savings, and that consumers are getting an accurate idea of what they are actually saving,” Nathan says.

Be wary of sales that never end

One gimmick some retailers employ is to have sales running all the time, with the addition of active coupon codes. To get the best deal in this situation, everything comes down to the coupon code: Is it for 20% off, 30% off, or 50% off? If there is always a sale going on, “the full price as represented is just not really accurate,” Nathan says. “You really can say the worst sale price is the actual price.”

Speaking of coupons, always do a quick search before checking out—just Google the name of the retailer and “promo code” or “coupon code.” Some websites also offer free shipping or a one-time percentage off an order if you sign up for their emails.

Understand the algorithm

Retailers use algorithms to make their prices competitive, whether that involves lowering the price of an item to beat a rival or raising the price due to low inventory levels. Some have technology that allows them to price match almost immediately, and by doing a quick Google search, you’ll be able to tell whether an item is available for the same price across the board.

“If you see a few places that are similar, like Amazon, Best Buy, and Walmart, and they are sharing this sale price, it’s likely that it’s fairly legitimate,” Nathan says. “It also gives you a choice, where you’re able to purchase from the retailer that suits you best or has the best credit card benefits.”

Although it’s a known fact that companies monitor competitors’ pricing models in order to adjust their own online prices, they don’t advertise how often they make tweaks to their algorithms. It’s not just a matter of the prices, either—retailers also employ ranking algorithms, which analyze keywords, customer reviews, and sales to match customers with the best version of the products they want to purchase.

Track prices over time

In some cases, retailers inflate their prices just before launching a percentage-off sale, so an item either ends up costing its typical price or is offered with a minuscule discount. This often happens ahead of holidays, especially Memorial Day and Independence Day, when retailers advertise huge blowout sales—they increase the prices and then knock them down to fit the sale window.

“Retailers often revert back to higher-than-usual pricing, sometimes even MSRP, before certain sale events,” Nathan says. “In that way, despite the appearance of a hefty percentage off, they’re able to offer marginal discounts and frame them as massive savings.”

That’s why comparison shopping over time is key: You can see trends and take note of what the prices are in the weeks leading up to a major sales event. Placing items on an online wish list can also help you keep an eye on pricing.

“If you have the time and inclination, it’s remarkable how often you find the sale price you thought was exceptional is actually a small drop being done by a number of retailers, or there’s an even better price out there,” Nathan says.

To keep track of prices at Amazon, shoppers can use CamelCamelCamel or Keepa, “but those services tend not to capture Lightning Deals or coupon deals, so while they’re good at documenting general price history, they may not catch every drop,” Nathan notes. “Even so, they’re usually a good way to see if a discount is overstated.” For other sites, Nathan suggests using the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine, which “captures some historical pricing if a product’s sale page has been saved.”

If you want to make sure you know right down to the penny how prices are shifting, “logging screenshots as often as possible is the most accurate way to track—but it’s extremely arduous and manual, so weigh your time and effort versus the savings you might see,” Nathan says.

Shop for summer in winter, and winter in spring

Shoppers who plan ahead also reap rewards when it comes to seasonal merchandise. Retailers offer deeper discounts when they want to move out bathing suits in order to bring in coats, for example, and this is when you can be “more confident than other times that the price you’re getting is comparatively good,” Nathan says.

Nathan has found that the “best sales we see for air purifiers come during pre–Black Friday, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday sales, and while that’s the time of year that sales are best anyway, it doesn’t hurt that it’s not a high-need allergy season.” In addition, Nathan says, “we see nice deals on outdoor gear in late August and early September as the outdoor season is starting to draw to a close, and January/February white sales are a classic example of off-season sales as comforters and blankets are discounted with warmer weather on the way.”

It might help to mark your calendar as a reminder—make notes in July to shop for a snowblower, for instance, and in December to start searching for a barbecue.

Remember: The pandemic is still affecting product availability

Because of the pandemic, items that people scooped up to help them get through quarantine—stand mixers and bread makers for baking, dumbbells for working out—are undergoing surges in pricing, if stores can even keep them in stock. Online retailers know that over the past year or so, more people have been shopping from home, and the retailers are “positioning themselves accordingly,” Nathan says. Expect to see street prices creeping up, and keep in mind that in response to everything from the semiconductor shortage to pandemic-induced shipping issues, some of the increase in costs will be passed along to shoppers.

Regardless, if you’re in a time crunch and you need to buy something now, the Wirecutter Deals page is the place to go—our team has done the research for you.

“We proactively track Wirecutter picks, and when we put a deal out in the world, it’s as heavily researched as our guides,” Nathan says. “Folks are getting the best price that is really possible within the window when they are looking to buy.”