PARIS — Officially, France, Germany and other European holdouts against a war with Iraq remain unimpressed by the evidence that Secretary of State Colin Powell laid out Wednesday at the U.N. Security Council.
French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin and his German counterpart Joschka Fischer reflected widely shared European opinion when they said that weapons inspections must be allowed to run their course before military action can be considered.
“We must continue to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis,” said Fischer, whose nation holds the rotating chairmanship of the Security Council.
But France has been discreetly readying its military for possible engagement in the Middle East, and French President Jacques Chirac appears to be keeping open his options.
With a growing sense that war now is almost inevitable, many European diplomats and analysts think that Chirac would not allow France to remain on the sidelines and disqualify itself from a seat at the post-war winners’ table.
While Chirac has not retreated on his public criticism of the Bush administration’s apparent readiness for a war with or without U.N. approval, the surprise departure earlier this week of France’s only aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, for three weeks of maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean is taken as a clear sign of the French president’s calculations.
Also in recent weeks, the French military has been busy refitting warplanes with advanced avionics and satellite-linked bomb guidance equipment that will help them integrate with U.S. forces already in the region, according to reports in TTU, an authoritative French newsletter.
But even after Powell’s speech Wednesday, public opinion in France remained adamantly opposed to a war in Iraq, and Chirac likely would have to weather a firestorm of criticism if he decides to back the United States.
“About 75 percent of the French people are opposed to this war, and even if Powell had produced clear evidence, I don’t think that anything coming from the United States would change people’s opinion here,” said Bruno Jeanbard, a political analyst with CSA, a leading French polling company.
He said that the cumulative effect of a multitude of sins — from the Bush administration’s curt rejection of Kyoto accords to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s more recent dismissal of France and Germany as “old Europe” — had soured public opinion in France.
Jean Marc Ayrault, leader of the opposition Socialist Party, said Wednesday that France should use its U.N. veto to block the war, and called for a vote in the National Assembly.
Given the U.S. determination to proceed with or without U.N. approval, a French veto is considered unlikely. Eight European leaders — most notably Britain’s Tony Blair, Spain’s Jose Maria Aznar and Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi — have already endorsed the U.S. position, and a veto by France would isolate it diplomatically.
Germany, meanwhile, has painted itself into a diplomatic corner. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder suffered a major setback in last weekend’s regional elections, and the opposition Christian Democrats quickly have tried to take advantage by criticizing his rigid stand against military action.
But public opinion in Germany strongly opposes the war, and German officials again made clear on Wednesday that under no circumstances would Germany contribute men or materiel to the war effort.
France’s military contribution is expected to be a token one at best, according to defense analysts, but it would supply the U.S.-led coalition with a strong measure of political legitimacy, and in return it would guarantee the French a slice of the victory spoils.
