TALLAHASSEE — Democratic candidates for president will converge in Florida later this month, as a convalescing Florida Sen. Bob Graham gears up his own fund-raising for an expected presidential campaign.
The parade of out-of-state candidates will offer an early showcase for contenders in a state critical to anyone’s chances of challenging President Bush in 2004. Candidates also will have a national audience here, as they court labor leaders assembling on Hollywood Beach for a weeklong winter meeting of the AFL-CIO.
At the same time, Graham’s expected entry into the race should squelch any plans for a “straw poll” of presidential preferences at the Florida Democratic Party’s fall convention. Democratic leaders nationally have discouraged a straw poll, and it could become an unfair contest with a home-state candidate.
Florida’s senior senator, a former two-term governor, has the home-court advantage among Democrats here. Despite his own formal announcement delayed until mid-April while he recuperates from heart surgery, friends say, Graham plans to file federal papers this month enabling him to start campaign fund raising.
“This exploratory campaign business is somewhat of a fiction,” said Buddy Shorstein, a Jacksonville accountant and longtime Graham friend and adviser. “Our thinking is that we can use this period while he is convalescing, healing, getting his strength back, to start accumulating some dollars toward his campaign.”
Graham is not the only Democratic hopeful with health concerns. U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., is scheduled to have his prostate removed today after being diagnosed with what doctors called a very curable form of cancer. Kerry’s recovery — like Graham’s after his surgery last month — is expected to take several weeks, doctors said.
Both candidates are expected to remain in the presidential hunt, and Florida could be key in the party’s attempt to defeat President Bush next year.
This month’s labor meeting offers candidates the first high-profile visit to the state.
“Nobody is going to ignore a delegate-rich state which might help determine the nominee in 2004,” said Rick Ritter, campaign manager for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a Democratic candidate for president who plans to visit AFL-CIO leaders at the Diplomat Hotel and Spa on Feb. 25.
“Yes, Bob Graham is there, but there are a great many delegates there,” Ritter said of Florida. “And he may not be there by early March of 2004.”
Florida will hold its presidential primary Mar. 9, 2004, joining several other major states in winnowing the field of Democratic candidates emerging from the first caucuses and primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire in late January.
In a growing field for the Democratic nomination, candidates today are focusing beyond the first primary contests.
U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, the former House minority leader running for president, raised money for his campaign in South Florida this week.
Gephardt plans to devote two days to meetings with national labor leaders at the AFL-CIO’s executive council session at the union-owned Diplomat; the council’s private meetings run Feb. 24-27.
Although the union plans no formal forum for candidates, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman also is weighing a visit to the Diplomat as he plans a three-day Florida trip that week. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards plans to visit AFL-CIO leaders at their Hollywood Beach meeting.
“They are spending a tremendous amount of time here now, because in a presidential race a lot can happen and a lot can change,” said Scott Maddox, state Democratic Party chairman, fielding phone calls from most of the candidates. “They want to be ready to be in a position to make a move one way or another.”
Florida could offer all the candidates an early test of organizational strength, if the state’s party hosts a straw poll at its state convention, likely in November. But Graham’s expected involvement in the race makes that unlikely.
“The Democratic National Committee is feeling very strongly that we don’t need to have one, but we have not made the decision as a state party,” Maddox said. “A lot will depend on what Sen. Graham does. If Sen. Graham enters into the race, a straw poll becomes irrelevant because no one is going to compete.”
Once the party names a nominee, however, Florida will play a critical role.
It was Bush’s razor-thin victory over Democrat Al Gore here in 2000 that handed the president a marginal advantage in electoral votes, securing his election after Gore won the popular vote.
In 2004, Florida will carry two more electoral votes to the equation — 27 in all, 10 percent of the number needed to win the White House.
This makes Florida a must-win for Democrats next year, a challenge heightened by the president’s strength here. Bush, who helped brother Gov. Jeb Bush win re-election last year and who has visited Florida 12 times since his own election, will return this week, appearing at Naval Station Mayport, near Jacksonville.
Some influential Florida Democrats, such as Broward County Sheriff Ken Jenne, have placed their support on hold while awaiting word from Graham. Jenne had introduced North Carolina’s Edwards to Democrats here.
“The reaction in Broward County was phenomenal,” Jenne said of Edwards’ early appearances. “But now that Sen. Graham has indicated an interest, I have got to be, I want to be, and I am supportive of Bob Graham. He is my friend.”
Graham was prepared to announce his campaign early this month but then confronted surgery to replace his aortic valve Jan. 31.
Friends say Graham’s wife and family have prevailed on him to delay a formal announcement until mid-April, for the sake of a full recovery. They also say Graham, opening a campaign account this month, still is resolved to run.
“Oh yeah, that’s what he wants to do,” said Robin Gibson, a Lake Wales lawyer and longtime friend who welcomed Graham home from the hospital last week. “He is looking good, but he has to take some time going through this recovery.”
Meanwhile, Gibson welcomes the winter competition in Florida.
“There are a lot of hyper-political people who are saying, ‘You’ve got to rush,’ ” Gibson said of Graham’s spring schedule. “There’s plenty of time.”
