Three WNBA Betting 'Locks' For Thursday Including A Caitlin Clark Player Prop
At first, I was hesitant to jump aboard the WNBA hype train propelled by the strength of Caitlin Clark's outlandish popularity. Nevertheless, I've stopped being a women's basketball Grinch and, instead, am looking to profit from it.
READ: Angel Reese, Not Caitlin Clark, Is The Smarter Bet To Win 2024 WNBA Rookie Of The Year
In that respect, so far, so good as I'm 2-0 in my first two WNBA bets. One backing Clark and the other fading her. Well, much to the OutKick readers' chagrin probably, I'm back to fading Clark Thursday. That, along with two picks to cover the spread, form my WNBA betting trifecta for Thursday.
WNBA Betting Card: Thursday, June 27
- 1.1 units (u) on Connecticut Sun -10.5 (-110) at FanDuel.
- 1.05u on Chicago Sky +10.5 (-105) at Caesars.
- 0.5u on Indiana Fever PG Caitlin Clark UNDER 17.5 points (-130) at DraftKings.
Connecticut Sun (13-3) at Washington Mystics (4-13), 7 p.m. ET
While the Sun are tied for the second-best record in the WNBA, they aren't coming through for backers. They are just 7-9 against the spread (ATS). So, Connecticut -10.5 is a big number to lay, especially on the road. But, Washington's NBA team, the Wizards, aren't popular. Because of this, I'm not expecting a huge crowd for a 4-win Mystics squad.
Washington is missing its second-through-fourth-best scorers by points per game (PPG) Thursday: C Shakira Austin (11.7 PPG), G Brittney Sykes (11.3 PPG), and G Karlie Samuelson (9.9 PPG). Granted, Sykes has only appeared in three games this year and just six for Austin.
Yet, Samuelson played in the last Sun-Mystics game. Connecticut was -13.5 home favorites and waxed D.C. 76-59. All three played in the first Sun-Mystics meeting this season, which Washington covered as +8 road underdogs in an 84-77 loss. Plus, I already mentioned not being concerned about a home-crowd advantage for the Mystics.
Furthermore, they live and die with the three, but Connecticut has one of the best perimeter defenses in the WNBA. Washington leads the Association in percentage of points off of threes. Whereas the Sun are first in both 3-pointers made and allowed per game.
Lastly, Connecticut has two strength-on-weakness edges on the glass and getting to the foul line. The Sun are +5.0 in free-throw-attempt margin per game and +2.1 rebound margin. The Mystics have a -3.0 rebound-per-game margin and a WNBA-worst -5.0 free-throw-attempt margin.
Best Bet: Connecticut Sun -10.5 (-110) at FanDuel
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Las Vegas Aces (8-6) at Chicago Sky (6-9), 7 p.m. ET
The Aces are going for a three-peat and have beaten the Sky in seven consecutive meetings. However, Chicago fortified its frontcourt by drafting C Kamilla Cardosa third in the 2024 WNBA Draft and PF Angel Reese with the seventh pick. Las Vegas two-time WNBA MVP C A'ja Wilson leads the Association in scoring (27.8 PPG) and rebounds (11.6).
Wilson measures 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, while Cardoso is 6-foot-7 and weighs 215 pounds. Most of Wilson's production comes from inside the paint, but she won't be able to bully the much bigger Cardosa. With that in mind, the Sky average +4.7 paint PPG, and the Aces average +1.8 paint PPG.
First-round 2024 WNBA Draft picks Chicago Sky PF Angel Reese and C Kamilla Cardoso pose with Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga before throwing out the first pitch at Wrigley Field. (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)
Moreover, Chicago's size allows it to extend its perimeter defense. The Sky is third in defensive 3-point shooting rate, which is huge for this matchup since Las Vegas is fifth in 3-point percentage. Finally, Chicago should win the "battle for possessions" because it has higher rebound-per-game and turnover-per-game margins.
Best Bet: Chicago Sky +10.5 (-105) at Caesars.
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Indiana Fever SG Caitlin Clark UNDER 17.5 Points vs. Seattle Storm, 10 p.m. ET
This is the mandatory Clark section of my WNBA betting article. Clark scored 21 and 20 points in her first two games against Seattle this year. But, she shot a lousy 36.4% from the field in those contests and her season average is 39.9%. On the road, Clark averages just 15.8 PPG on 38.9% shooting compared to 41.2% from the field on her home floor.
Indiana Fever SG Caitlin Clark looks for an open teammate while being double-teamed by the Seattle Storm at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. (Joe Timmerman/IndyStar/USA TODAY NETWORK)
It's smarter to look at means instead of averages when handicapping player props. That said, Clark has scored 18+ points in just eight of her 18 games this year. The Iowa alum has scored less than 18 points in six of her past nine games. Also, the Storm are fourth in defensive 3-point percentage and that is Clark's bread and butter.
Best Bet: Chicago Sky +10.5 (-105) at Caesars.
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