Adam McClintock

Mathematics is a universal language.  When used correctly it can present a multitude of possibilities.  This was made clear to me my sophomore year of college when for one of my final exams I was asked to prove Kepler's Laws of Planetary Motion.  Kepler's Laws predict the orbit of celestial bodies.  I figured that if I could use mathematics to predict something as far reaching as the movement of celestial bodies; I should be able to apply it to predicting something a little more terrestrial, College Football.  I began creating metrics to project College Football in 2006 using advanced mathematics.  Since then I have added more in depth and accurate metrics every year.  These metrics are used to do everything from projecting playoff committee behavior to career coaching trajectory to modeling game by game outcomes. If you've followed me on twitter you know that the game by game projection model that I have created rivals that of ESPNs FPI and opening Vegas lines.  The career coaching trajectory metrics have successfully predicted the failure as well as the success of many coaching hires.  My projection of the playoff committee Top 25 has also been the most accurate the past 4 years running. All of these projection metrics and mathematical models take time and energy to maintain.That's where you come in!  By contributing, you can help me keep this going and also be able to see a little bit more about how it all works.

Free

Get preseason projections for all FBS teams.  This includes:
 
*Roster Talent Ranking
*Homefield Advantage
*Returning Starters
*Strength of Schedule
*Coaching Staff Ratings
*Projected Record
*Floor/Ceiling Expectations
*Projected Conference Finish
*Point Spread Projections for Every Game
*Preseason Index Ranking of Every FBS Team
*Preseason Playoff Projection
 
Preseason projections come out in Early April; then again in mid August. The preseason projections are not updated in-season.  These projections have historically hit between 70-74% SU for the season.

Preseason

Get everything in the preseason package along with weekly updates on every projection as the season progresses.  Every game played and every play called throughout the season serves as additional data with which the model updates.  These updates include:*Real time Strength of Schedule*Updated Weekly Projected Record*Updated Weekly Projected Point Spreads*Updated Team Index Ranking for Every FBS Team*Updated Playoff Projections*Offense Efficiency Metrics*Defense Efficiency MetricsIn-Season Projections come out every Monday or Tuesday during the season and have historically hit between 74-81% SU for the season.

In-Season

Get everything in the Preseason &amp; In-Season packages as well as 
information as the model is being created.  There are many steps to creating the model every year; be updated at every step and see how every variable effects the index value of every team.  This includes:
 
*Head Coach Changes (Typically finished in January)
*Offensive Coordinator Changes (Typically finished in January)
*Defensive Coordinator Changes (Typically finished in January)
*Roster Talent (Typically finished in February)
*Returning Production (Typically finished in March)
*Injury/Transfer/Suspension Roster Changes (Updated from April-August)
 
As well as these In-Season Bonuses:
*Playoff Committee Top 25 Projections (My model has accurately predicted committee behavior better than any other source out there.  The past 4 years it has been off less than 1 ranking per team for the entire Top 25.)
 
*Bowl Picks and Playoff Picks to aid you in winning your office pool or just bragging rights among friends.
 
Also receive commentary on every turn the coaching carousel takes.  This includes analyzing every hire made by every FBS program.

Adam McClintock

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