A new mathematical model aims to promote fairness in distributing resources as leaders of coastal cities, including those in Hampton Roads, work to create effective infrastructure to combat sea-level rise.
The model was created by Chris Zobel, the R.B. Pamplin Professor of Business Information Technology at Virginia Tech, with colleagues at Florida Atlantic University and the University of Houston. Research focused mainly on diversity and inclusion in operations management.
Even though more than $1 trillion in funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act has been set aside for weather infrastructure, Zobel said it is likely that cities cannot make all the changes they would like to — because current storms or flooding events take priority.
“They are also very aware of the importance of incorporating equity into deciding which improvement projects to choose so that they can provide more socially vulnerable groups their fair share of protection,” he said.
The researchers used Miami and its stormwater infrastructure as a case study to evaluate different options for allocating resources across 72 areas of the city. The model uses demographic and socioeconomic data to prioritize projects that would enhance resilience and mitigate disparities exacerbated by flooding events.
According to a 2023 report from the Environmental Protection Agency, flooding is the most costly natural disaster in the United States, and areas with social and economic disparities can be more severely impacted.
“Our research isn’t trying to say, ‘You need to build better infrastructure in these particular neighborhoods and these neighborhoods alone,’” Zobel said. “Instead, it provides decision-makers with the ability to look at the trade-offs between equity and efficiency so that they can see what the implications are of making different types of allocations. This helps them to be better informed so that they can make more effective decisions that balance these factors fairly and appropriately.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its latest tidal flooding outlook this week. Due to long-term sea level rise, NOAA said the U.S. now experiences an additional five median flood days per year compared with 2000 — a roughly 200% increase. The Mid-Atlantic experiences an average of a week more.
For Hampton Roads, the issue is all too familiar. NOAA researchers found that last year, Sewells Point in Norfolk measured a record 23 days of nuisance flooding. From May to April of next year, the region can expect between 11 and 17 days of high-tide nuisance flooding.
By 2050, NOAA predicts that coastal communities across the nation will experience an average of 45 to 85 high-tide flood days per year. Oceanographers said flooding from sea-level rise creates issues for city decision-makers and residents, including closed roadways and damaged vehicles.
“We all have an important role to play in helping to find solutions to complex and evolving societal problems such as the impacts of sea level rise, and I’m pleased to be part of a team that was able to make even a small contribution toward this effort,” Zobel said.
Eliza Noe, [email protected]
