2024 Yankees Midseason Top 15 Prospects: 1-5

Welcome to the third and final article covering my midseason re-ranking of Yankees prospects. Our first two pieces respectively covered the prospects who I ranked 11-15 and 6-10 in the organization, and this last part will cover the top five and some concluding thoughts. This is where the real fun begins because some of the players have seen their prospect status skyrocket a little more than halfway through the 2024 campaign. Others, meanwhile, might be scuffling or injured but still have immense upside.

With that out of the way, let’s close out this series!

5. RHP Chase Hampton (Double-A Somerset)

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Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Cutter: 50 | Changeup: 40 | Command: 50 | OFP: 60

A low-key sixth-round selection out of Texas Tech in the 2022 draft, Hampton entered pro ball with a deep but unrefined arsenal (as is the case for most Texas Tech pitchers). Instead of entering affiliated ball upon being drafted, Hampton was sent to the Yankees’ pitching lab, where New York helped him adjust the grips of his pitches to produce more bite — and consequently, more swing-and-miss. The results in 2023 were nothing short of marvelous, as the 22-year-old delivered a 2.68 ERA in High-A Hudson Valley across 9 starts and 47 innings. Hampton was then promoted to Somerset, where the numbers were uneven but still encouraging. By regular season’s end, Hampton seemed to be getting into a rhythm with the Patriots. I was very excited, placing him third in my offseason ranking for Baseball Prospectus.

Once spring training rolled around, though, it became evident that something wasn’t right with Hampton. Alas, the right-hander underwent testing and was revealed to have a UCL sprain in his right elbow. The sprain sprain shelved him up until a couple of weeks ago, and as of this writing, he’s two outings into a rehab assignment at the Florida complex. His next rehab outing will likely be with Low-A Tampa.

I will be curious to see if Hampton’s deep and refined arsenal from 2023 looks similar post-elbow injury. If it does, the soon-to-be 23-year-old would be in conversation for one of the 10 best pitching prospects in the sport. While his bread-and-butter offering is his sweeper, he sets it up with a fastball that has great rise up in the zone while sitting 94-6 and topping out at 97. The aforementioned sweeper is nothing short of an airbender, sitting in the low 80s with virtually no vertical dive but forceful horizontal break to the glove side. There’s a conversation to be had between Hampton and Will Warren for who has the best sweeper amongst starting pitching prospects in the organization, though I lean toward Warren’s given how his sweeper tunnels with his sinker. Still, that gives context to what I think about Hampton’s sweeper.

That’s not all: Hampton also boasts a plus 12-6 curveball that, as opposed to his sweeper, has no horizontal bite and darts below the zone. When he faces lefties, he’ll reduce the usage of his sweeper and curve in favor of a workable cutter to jam them inside and generate weak contact. It’s not a standout pitch, but it allows the righty to be more competitive against opposite-handed batters.

On top of his cutter, Hampton implements a change that he uses almost exclusively against lefties. The pitch doesn’t get nearly the public praise it should, as I saw several offerings with good, two-plane movement and solid velocity separation from his fastball. While it’s his fifth-best offering, it’s effective enough to be used as a viable offering versus lefties and occasionally righties to get them off his fastball.

In addition to owning a deep arsenal that generates whiffs and fly balls, Hampton has interesting but sound mechanics that allow him to throw a sufficient amount of strikes. Last year, Hampton’s bugaboo in Somerset was when he missed in bad spots with his fastball. He’ll need to continue harnessing the command of his heater to set up the rest of his arsenal — an arsenal that could make him a very good mid-rotation option should he reach a high but realistic outcome.

4. 1B/C Ben Rice (New York Yankees)

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Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Field: 50 | Throw: 30 | OFP: 60

The Ivy League took a very progressive stance on the COVID-19 pandemic by shutting down athletics for not just 2020, but 2021 as well. It’s for that reason that Rice, a Dartmouth product, was a relative unknown to most in the scouting community. Although he performed well in summer wood-bat leagues, there was still skepticism about how Rice’s game would translate to pro ball since he wasn’t a lock to stay at catcher.

Rice’s lack of reps at Dartmouth also worked to his detriment in the public sphere because scouts (myself included, at least initially) wondered how legitimate his numbers were in the lower minors, given that he was old for the levels. This touches on a point I’ve brought up before, but I think reps should be accounted for in addition to age when trying to assess a level-of-competition curve: Rice and the next player we’ll talk about embody this idea better than perhaps any other prospect in the sport.

As for Rice’s evaluation, y’all have been graced with his game for about a month now at the MLB level. He looks a bit unsynchronized at the plate and when he runs, but it works for him. His slightly opened stance, muted leg kick, and nonexistent hand load afford him the mental cues to turn on inside heat and sit back on sliders darting away. Rice’s swing isn’t beautiful or aesthetically pleasing, but he’s undeniably short and compact to the ball. He shows a willingness to go the other way with pitches that aren’t in his turbo zone, but he’s not afraid to pull and lift the ball if he thinks he can put it over the fence. Alas, his major-league spray chart looks exactly like what I would’ve expected: grounder or low-liner singles the other way and high-liner or fly ball extra-base hits to center and the pull side. We can’t finish talking about Rice’s hit tool without mentioning his swing decisions, which are already looking like some of the best not just on the Yankees, but of any prospect in baseball.

I’m sure that there will be an adjustment period, but Rice has always had a sensational feel for when to swing. The best statistical indicators I can flag are zone swing, outside-of-zone swing, and meatball (over-the-plate) swing rates. Rice swings a ton in the zone—especially in the meatball zone—and chases significantly below the league average. We’re talking about borderline 80-grade swing decisions here, and it’s what propels his hit tool from a 55 to a 60.

Rice’s power touches on the debate between raw and actualized juice. His max exit velocities are fine albeit not great, but he thrives in maximizing his power in games, as demonstrated in his homer hat trick last Saturday against Boston. Think of it this way: Mookie Betts is a consistent threat to go deep because he knows how to position his barrel to create loft, but he’s not that impressive to watch in batting practice. (Remember last year’s Home Run Derby?) By no means am I calling Rice Mookie Betts 2.0, but it’s the concept I want you to understand. Rice’s raw power sits in the 55, or above-average camp, but his actualized, game power is comfortably a plus.

While Rice came through the Yankees system as a catcher, he played first base more frequently in his lead-up to the Bronx. He’s become the full-time first baseman in the absence of Anthony Rizzo, but I still think he has some value as a guy who can catch as challenges are introduced to the majors. He has a noodle arm, unfortunately, so I think his ultimate destination is indeed first, where he’s fine. Does he have a truly elite tool? No, but he’s one of the most well-rounded offensive prospects I can remember the Yankees developing not named Aaron Judge. I was happy to be the most aggressive public evaluator of Rice in the offseason, and dare I say I’m about to go even bolder: Rice will be a multi-time All-Star by the time his career comes to a close.

3. C/1B Agustin Ramirez (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)

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Hit: 55 | Power: 70 | Run: 30 | Field: 45 | Throw: 55 | OFP: 60

Ramirez signed with the Yankees way back in 2018 as a low-level signing out of the Dominican Republic. There was some bat speed and strength to go along with his abilities behind the plate, but he wasn’t considered a ballyhooed signing by any stretch of the imagination. After getting his feet wet in 2019 in the DSL, Agustin lost 2020 like every other minor leaguer due to the pandemic. He returned to pro ball via the complex league in 2021 and got off to a slow start, but he picked things up towards the end of that season.

The following year, Ramirez repeated complex ball and was one of the league’s best hitters, swatting 6 homers in 44 complex games. Similar to Rice, though, some dinged Agustin because he was old for the level. But also like Rice, Ramirez showed with more reps that he was taking significant strides forward in his development. It all came to a head last year when he dominated Tampa and Hudson Valley before earning a late-season call-up to Somerset. If you’ve been reading my weekly roundup pieces, you know the rest is history.

Similar to Rice, I was considerably above consensus on Ramirez in my offseason rankings, citing his special bat-to-ball and bat-speed combination as a catcher. Not only has Agustin validated my belief in him, but he’s exceeded even my wildest expectations coming into the season.

Before his promotion to Scranton, Ramirez led all of Double-A with home runs while posting a borderline elite strikeout-walk ratio. The biggest difference year-to-year is his ability to maximize damage on fly balls. Despite how special his season has been, he’s hitting the ball on the ground more than in years past, but his bat speed and strength are so special that most of his fly balls have the potential to go very, very far without him having to try hitting it out. The 22-year-old’s power has always been to all fields because he doesn’t try to hit the ball far. As opposed to trying to hit it out, Ramirez aims to make contact and will hit it wherever it’s thrown: he’ll go the other way when the pitch warrants as such, but he’ll pull anything you try to stuff him with. This has always been why I’ve been so much higher on him than everyone else, and we’re beginning to see that approach take shape after he underwent a typical two-week adjustment period to Triple-A pitching.

In addition to his ability to make contact with the ball, Ramirez swings a ton in the zone — way more than the average, which is a good thing. This does trickle down to mild aggressiveness outside the zone (particularly against offspeed below the knees), but not to the point where I fear it’ll be a huge impediment to his game. Ramirez will remind some of Gary Sánchez because of his one-handed follow-through, but Ramirez is flat-out a better hitter than Sánchez ever was, with only slightly less raw power. In all, Ramirez could be a middle-of-the-order masher regardless of what position he ultimately plays.

Speaking of where Ramirez will ultimately play, his north-south framing behind the dish is solid, but he’s a bit of a mess with the east-west framing. Then again, I said the same thing about Austin Wells, and Wells to his credit has become a fairly good framer. This is a workable skill, and I believe the Yankees will give Agustin every opportunity to stick because they want his arm to neutralize the running game as much as possible. If/when an ABS-like system is introduced to the majors, I’d feel even more comfortable with Ramirez behind the plate because his arm is legitimately a weapon against the running game. Although he’s shown a habit of dropping balls on the exchange while cocking his arm back to throw to second, he shows the ability to toss base stealers out from his knees.

God forbid he doesn’t stick at catcher, it won’t matter. We’re talking about El Buldog, after all: the dawg of dawgs. I’m confident that Agustin will be a mainstay in the middle of batting orders for years to come. His comp is Milwaukee’s William Contreras, who has evolved into one of the preeminent catchers in the sport.

2. SS Roderick Arias (Low-A Tampa)

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Just kidding. On to the real number two.

2. OF Spencer Jones (Double-A Somerset)

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Hit: 40 | Power: 70 | Run: 60 | Field: 60 | Throw: 55 | OFP: 60

Let’s start with the good: Jones, the Yankees’ 2022 first-round selection out of Vanderbilt, is still an 80-grade size-adjusted athlete who shouldn’t run as fast as he does at 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds. He shows a level of grace in center field that surpasses Aaron Judge, and he looks like a legitimate candidate to stick there should he remain healthy. The topline batted-ball numbers (max, 90th percentile, and average exit velocities) are still special, as in one of the best in all of the minor leagues. He demolishes balls that he lifts into the air, showing no regard for outfield walls either to his left or right. Jones is a gifted baserunner who combines his raw footspeed with incredible IQ, allowing him to swipe bags with regularity. If every prospect in Minor League Baseball were to reach their 99th percentile outcome, there’s a strong case that Spencer Jones would be the best of them all.

And now for the concerns: In addition to increased swing-and-miss, Jones still struggles to lift the ball with regularity. Mind you, Jones underwent a very public swing change in the offseason, geared towards creating more loft without sacrificing too much contact. It’s becoming evident that this was not the swing change Jones needed, as his ground-ball rate is still way north of what it should be for someone of his size. His failure to consistently lift pitches at the knees will limit his power potential in the big leagues. If Jones were to ever reach the previously alluded-to 99th percentile outcome, he’d need to undergo yet another swing change where his attack angle increases without further reducing the amount of time his barrel stays in the zone.

The law of probabilities suggests that if you’ve already had an unsuccessful swing change, the chances are that your next swing change won’t work either. Jones’ swing decisions also leave some meat on the bone, as his untenable strikeout rate (37.1 percent in 73 games this year) is partly due to his lowered contact rates, but also because he leaves the bat on his shoulder way too much. To me, this signifies poor pitch recognition, which is something that’ll be further exploited in the majors.

So what the heck are we to make of the enigma that is Spencer Jones? The good news is that similar to Rice and Ramirez, Jones has limited reps for his age — he only became a full-time hitter a few years ago. He hasn’t completely collapsed as a top prospect, but it’s evident that there’s more work to be done. I’m still bullish on Jones because his athleticism is so elite, but we need to start witnessing that athleticism translate into more production over the next few months. I am slightly lower on him than I was in the offseason, but there is still an undeniable force-of-nature, MVP-candidate outcome should he make the correct offensive adjustments.

1. OF Jasson Domínguez (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)

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Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 60 | Field: 50 | Throw: 60 | OFP: 60

Domínguez entered professional baseball with some of the most irresponsible comparisons and expectations I can recall. And yet, I give props to him for still evolving into one of the best prospects in the sport. While it’s been an interesting, windy road for the 2019 top international signee, he began showing improvements during his minor-league rehab assignment earlier this year until he hit the shelf again with an oblique/rib injury.

Coming into the season, I evaluated Domínguez as an above-average outfield prospect who was being hyped up by the baseball industrial complex. While I still think there’s some of that at play, I also can’t deny the progression I observed during his rehab. For starters, the loading sequence seemed quieter with fewer moving parts before he swings. Because his swing can get long at times, he has to make sure his hips are in a position to rotate and his hands can explode through the zone — something I thought he struggled to consistently do in previous years.

If that’s been remedied, that’s a nice cause for optimism. Because the length of Domínguez’s swing has always sapped him of the ability to make sufficient contact in the zone, his hit tool would honestly rank below average were it not for his good swing decisions. In his scalding-hot cup of coffee in the bigs and Triple-A last year, he showed an approach not too dissimilar from Rice, who I just made the case for owning perhaps some of, if not the best swing decisions of any prospect in the sport. Domínguez isn’t quite there—especially on breaking pitches—but he’s going to take his fair share of balls throughout his career.

When Domínguez makes contact, his damage markers have improved as he’s filled out his stocky frame to the point where his max and 90th percentile exit velocities are quite good. Unlike other batters in this write-up, Domínguez shows no issue lifting the ball to all fields, and it’ll help him get the most out of his plus raw power. I wonder what’ll happen to his rotational athleticism if he continues to bulk up, though, and it’s something I worry we’ll have to monitor throughout his career. If he gets bulkier, it might get to a point where his swing stiffens and he isn’t able to tap into the raw power he’s been blessed with. It would also limit his footspeed, which currently helps make up for the subpar reads he takes off the bat while manning center field. Domínguez would be better served manning right field, where his plus arm would be an asset.

Do I think Domínguez is a superstar? I don’t. Does he possess the MVP upside that Spencer Jones has? No. Is he more likely to be an above-average contributor than Jones — someone who could make a few All-Star appearances in The Show? At this point, I’d argue the answer is yes, and that’s why I’ve flipped-flopped on the two. Still, this is more of a 1A/1B scenario, and I wouldn’t question those who still think Jones is the best prospect in the system.

In conclusion...

The Yankees’ farm system is down from what it was in the offseason. Injuries and underperformance have dampened the outlook for some of the most important prospects in the system. The organization seems to be struggling with helping batters lift the ball if they aren’t already doing so, which isn’t a ringing endorsement of the hitting development group. The pitching development continues to largely be a plus, though, with mini-breakouts like Zach Messinger, Cam Schlittler, and even an undrafted signing like Ben Shields improving their stuff from college days. The Yankees seem to have a developmental sweet spot for catchers with some raw juice and pitchers who are coming from college programs that don’t incorporate modern pitch design into their coaching.

In all, I would rank the Yankees’ farm system around average. Remember, it’s essential to point out that the talent pool in the minor leagues is down, and this upcoming draft class doesn’t sniff last year’s in either the top-end or depth of talent across the first few rounds. To recap my top 15 prospects, see my complete list below:

1. OF Jasson Domínguez (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
2. OF Spencer Jones (Double-A Somerset)
3. C/1B Agustin Ramirez (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
4. 1B/C Ben Rice (New York Yankees)
5. RHP Chase Hampton (Double-A Somerset)
6. LHP Henry Lalane (FCL Yankees)
7. RHP Will Warren (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
8. SS George Lombard Jr. (Low-A Tampa)
9. SS Jared Serna (High-A Hudson Valley)
10. SS/3B Enmanuel Tejeda (Low-A Tampa)
11. RHP Carlos Lagrange (FCL Yankees)
12. INF Caleb Durbin (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
13. 2B Jorbit Vivas (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
14. RHP Zach Messinger (Double-A Somerset)
15. OF Jace Avina (High-A Hudson Valley)

Thanks for joining me on this two-week journey of evaluating the Yankees’ farm system. I hope you took something away from my analysis, and I encourage you to share your thoughts in the comment section below!