2024 Yankees Prospects: Week 13 minor league review

Welcome to the 12th (sheesh) edition of the 2024 weekly minor league roundup, where I review each Yankees affiliate from the week before and the prospects playing there. All in all, last week was a much better showing in Baby Bomber land than the week prior. There were both hitting and pitching performances worth getting excited about. Let’s dig in!

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Record: 2-3 (2nd half), 2.5 GB in the International League East after going 2-3 against the Worcester Red Sox

Run differential: -13

Coming up: Away for six games against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs starting Monday, July 1st

With the second half of the season underway, the RailRiders fell to a Red Sox group that has had their number this season — specifically against Scranton’s pitchers. The pitching numbers are ugly: 8.01 team ERA via 60 hits in just 39.1 innings pitched. Will Warren was fine in his first outing on Tuesday evening but got rocked yet again on Sunday, as the right-hander cumulatively surrendered nine runs in just 7.2 innings of work. Somehow, Warren’s season ERA sits north of 7.00.

Part of me wonders what effect ABS (Automated Balls & Strikes) is having on Warren, who’s pitches are late-breaking and might be seen as strikes more often by human umpires. Kyle Harrison is an interesting comparison in this scenario, as his 2023 Triple-A numbers looked spotty — specifically his strike percentage. After he was promoted to the big leagues, however, his dastardly changeup generated a lot of borderline calls at the knees. Alas, his walk rate precipitously declined in the majors. Might Will Warren be better in the majors than in Triple-A? I’d consider it a nonzero possibility.

Right-handed reliever Scott Effross continued his rehab assignment with the RailRiders and was shaky in two appearances, allowing multiple hits in each outing. Frankly, I’ve not been encouraged by what I’ve seen, as his sinker is averaging and topping out less than pre-TJS. He never threw hard to begin with, but the margin for error is so much slimmer when you sit 89 on your sinker rather than 91.

The offense wasn’t as bad as the total runs scored would indicate, as their rained-out game means their runs per game and team OPS were decent by International League standards. Alas, their .867 team OPS placed them fifth in the league. The lineup was spearheaded by the middle infield duo of Jorbit Vivas and Oswald Peraza, who both hit over .440 and had OPS’ north of .975. Vivas was especially impressive, and he seems to have knocked off the rust after having a rough initial return from injury. His zone contact, which has always been impressive, now sits at a cool 88 percent. He has an odd loading sequence where the knob of his bat is parallel to the ground, though he somehow keeps his swing compact and can generate lift. Different strokes for different folks, I suppose.

Peraza seems to be making a more conscious effort to make more contact than last year, as the shortstop has simmered down his hand movement pre-load. While he’s made more contact, it’s come at the expense of his damage on contact: his exit velocities are trending downward and his horizontal spray is a mess. I understand Anthony Volpe has succeeded by pushing the ball more, but Volpe has better hand-eye coordination than Peraza and doesn’t seem to be making a conscious effort to go the other way, instead taking what the pitcher gives him. I’m still skeptical that Peraza is part of the Yankees’ long-term plans at this point.

Double-A Somerset Patriots

Record: 5-1 (second half), up 1.5 games in the Eastern League Northeast after going 5-1 against the Richmond Flying Squirrels (Giants)

Run differential: +17

Coming up: Home for six games against the Reading Fightin’ Phils (Phillies) starting Monday, July 1st

After underwhelming against the Seawolves (Tigers) the previous week, Somerset’s bats came alive in emphatic fashion. The Patriots paced the Eastern League with 45 runs scored in six games and an .852 team OPS — more than 50 points higher than the second-highest team in that span. This finally was the Spencer Jones show, with his .333/.345/.815 line and three homers pacing the Patriots’ lineup. Most of that damage came on Sunday afternoon via an epic 4-for-5 day in which he clobbered two home runs and drove in seven. It should be noted, however, that he also struck out an unsustainable 14 times in 29 plate appearances — or just south of a 50 percent K-rate. I don’t know what to do, man. The tools are tantalizing, but that tantalization has to translate to stardom at some point. I want to be excited, but I’m waiting to see if he can keep this up against better pitching staffs until I buy into the in-season breakout narrative.

Ben Cowles’ role in the lineup became tenfold more important after the departures of Ben Rice and Agustin Ramirez, and he’s continued to answer the call: his .891 OPS last week included his sixth home run of the season. His contact rates are off the charts, though I’m still skeptical of the power he’s displayed. In any event, he’s tracking like a nice utility man who’s capable of manning several spots in the infield. Hudson Valley’s slugging first baseman, Rafael Flores, was promoted to Somerset last week and proceeded to produce a .848 OPS that included his first Double-A homer. The topline numbers are impressive, but I’d like to see him generate more loft as a guy who’s tracking more like a first baseman than catcher.

Aside from a disastrous outing from Trystan Vrieling, the pitching staff was productive as evidenced by their 3.91 team ERA. Zach Messinger threw another six scoreless (two unearned runs) on Thursday evening, surrendering just three hits and allowing no walks while striking out seven. I would argue it’s Messinger — not Brock Selvidge — who’s emerged as the biggest breakout in Somerset’s staff. That’s not to say Selvidge didn’t have a nice day at the office last week: he did! His six innings of one-run ball continues the status quo for the left-hander, though he only punched out two batters.

JT Brubaker is slightly behind Scott Effross in his rehab assignment timeline, but he’s the one who looks better at this juncture. Similar to Effross, Brubaker is a sinkerballer who’d been topping out less than before Tommy John, but his velocity ticked up in his outing on Sunday. His go-to offering is a nasty gyro slider that had Richmond hitters looking helpless across his three innings of work.

High-A Hudson Valley Renegades

Record: 5-3 (second half), 1.5 GB in the South Atlantic League League North after going 4-1 against the Wilmington Blue Rocks (Nationals)

Run differential: +4

Coming up: Away for six games against the Brooklyn Cyclones (Mets) starting Monday, July 1st

The Renegades performed well on both sides of the ball en route to a 4-1 week against a light Wilmington squad, finishing top two in the South Atlantic League in both ERA allowed and offensive OPS. Like their counterparts in Double-A, Hudson Valley had players on both sides shine - perhaps none more than outfielder Jace Avina. We’ve previously highlighted Avina as a streaky outfielder with above-average raw power, and that materialized last week via three extra-base hits — one of which was a homer. Most encouragingly, he struck out just once in five games. I’ve raised prior concerns about his long, angled swing, but he’s seen his strikeout and swinging-strike rate decline over the last month.

Southpaw Ben Shields gave Avina a run for his money with his epic start on Friday, where he tossed 5.1 innings of one-hit ball to go along with nine punchouts. Over his last two starts, Shields has thrown 10.1 innings in which he’s allowed a single earned run to go along with 18:1 K/BB ratio. Wow! Though he’s already 25, he’s another example of a player where I’d place more value on the number of innings he’s pitched in pro ball than his age. While I worry about how his dead zone fastball will fare in the upper minors, he doesn’t have much left to prove in High-A.

Hudson Valley’s effort went beyond those two, though, as the entire starting rotation delivered against a poor Wilmington lineup. Offensively, five hitters aside from Avina had OPS’ greater than .830, highlighting the collective effort the team put forth. Christopher Familia showed signs of life after a rough start to his High-A season, swatting his first homer at the level on Friday.

At this point, I’m not sure why Jared Serna hasn’t been included amongst the bevy of promotions the Yankees have made in recent weeks. I wonder if he’s being held back before the trade deadline to keep the numbers looking shiny with an eye toward Somerset in August — should he remain in the organization past the deadline. An August promotion would afford him two months in Double-A before the front offices has to decide whether to add him to the 40-man roster in the offseason (he’ll be Rule-5-eligible). Roc Riggio is starting to pick things up with the bat after a lukewarm start to his season. He packs a punch for a smaller guy and is a steady defensive presence at the keystone. His discerning eye is his carrying tool, and it’ll have to remain so for his low-BABIP profile to work in the majors.

Low-A Tampa Tarpons

Record: 3-4 (second half), 2.5 GB in the Florida State League West after going 2-3 against the Fort Myers Might Mussels (Twins)

Run differential: +10

Coming up: Away for six games against the Lakeland Flying Tigers (Tigers) starting Monday, July 1st

Despite Tampa outscoring Fort Myers 37-26, it was the Mighty Mussels who emerged with the abbreviated series win. The 37 runs that Tampa scored across their five games paced the Florida State League, though the pitching staff’s 5.18 ERA and failure to close out games was their undoing. Such is the way for Tampa this year, ugh.

Jackson Castillo is emerging as the biggest breakout prospect on Tampa’s roster, as his 135 wRC+ is complemented by good underlying Trackman data. He’s making an acceptable amount of contact while displaying above-average swing decisions and a swing optimized for loft. His six homers in the FSL are excellent when adjusted for league factors, and his 101 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity suggests there could be slightly more power on the way. I hope to see him in Hudson Valley later this year.

Dylan Jasso’s making the most of his middling game power, and his two homers contributed to the eight RBI he generated last week. He’s not aggressive enough in the zone and tends to chase too much: not a great combination, but he’s made it work in the FSL.

The pitching left much to be desired, but Josh Grosz had a notable 6.1-inning shutout performance on Friday in which he garnered lots of whiffs on his slider and changeup. While he’s topped out at 96, his fastball is straight and hittable. He also has a high-effort delivery which has caused his walk rate to remain high throughout the season. Still, his secondaries are capable of generating swords. The video below is when Grosz was called upon as a fresh arm for Somerset in late June.

Florida Complex League Yankees

Record: 24-13, 3 games up in the Florida Complex League North after going 5-1 last week

Run differential: +9

Amazingly, the FCL Yankees got just one game in last week due to constant rain: a 7-2 win against the Tigers. Check back next week as they make up several games.

Dominican Summer League

Records: DSL NYY Yankees: 9-12, 8 GB in the DSL South | DSL NYY Bombers: 12-8, 1.5 GB in the DSL East

Run differentials: -12 | +13

The pitching was the highlight for both DSL Yankees squads last week, as both finished top-15 in the 51-team league in team ERA. Edinzo Marquez (Yankees) has been fabulous across his abbreviated five starts (DSL teams are uber-conservative with pitchers) and had his best outing of the season last Monday after he allowed just one run on six hits (lots of DSL shenanigans likely at play there). He also struck out six and walked just one. He continues to shove as a 19-year-old.

21-year-old Mariano Salomon (Bombers) gets mentioned in this series again after another 4.1 scoreless innings (he allowed two unearned runners to score) in which he struck out four and didn’t allow a walk. There isn’t a baseball reason I can come up with for why he’s still in the Dominican. I’m also a fan of Michell Chirinos, though not to the extent of the previous arms mentioned because he owns the worst command of the bunch. Still, his seven punchouts across three scoreless innings last Thursday highlight how overwhelming his stuff can be for teenage DSL hitters.

Catcher Luis Puello (Yankees) yet again makes an appearance in the weekly roundup after another week in which he rocked a 4:1 K/BB ratio. Puello is the kind of hitter I fall for since he presents a unique raw power skillset behind the dish — a skillset the Yankees have become adept at developing. Outfielder Isael Arias (Yankees) had the best offensive performance from an OPS perspective, though most of that production came on a triple in the gap (DSL sample sizes are laughable). Arias, an 18-year-old out of Mexico, is on the smaller side and had been struggling before last week. Shortstop Christofer Reyes (Bombers) is very, very fast and capable of getting an extra base on any given hit in the outfield. He has little in the way of raw pop and he’s been too aggressive on the basepaths, but there is a potential speed/defense profile in the making.

Prospect of the Week: Spencer Jones

Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images

I could be salty and say how this really should be the individual performance of the week, but his epic showing on Sunday contributed to what was already turning into a solid week for him down in Richmond. He’s still hitting the ball on the ground a ton, but perhaps this was the 5-hour energy jolt he needed to get his Double-A line above the league average.