Brian Ballard

When Brian Ballard speaks, heavyweight Florida donors open their wallets.

And the top Florida lobbyist and consummate political insider has a simple message for Republicans in 2018: “You have to embrace the Trump presidency.”

But Ballard, Donald Trump’s lobbyist for years in Tallahassee, knows it won’t be easy for the GOP next year.

The president’s approval ratings are low. And voters often punish the president’s party in a midterm election. Every statewide office based in Tallahassee is open next year. And Democrats, who have not occupied the governor’s mansion in two decades, feel invigorated as ever.

“For 2018 and 2020,” Ballard says, “Florida will be the most important state in the nation. It has to be.”

The nation’s largest swing state, Florida was won last year by Trump. But that would be tougher to repeat in 2020, Ballard says, with a Democratic governor who would also have veto power in 2022 over reapportionment for congressional seats. Of Florida’s 27 U.S. House members, 16 are Republicans and 11 are Democrats.

Gov. Rick Scott is leaving office due to term limits, but Ballard expects he’ll run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and beat him because the governor is better known, has higher approval ratings and will be better funded. If Scott doesn’t run, Ballard says, “I think we’ll lose that seat. It’s too late now” for another candidate. Scott, Ballard points out, is Trump’s biggest booster in Florida.

With a stable of 30 Ballard Partners staffers from Miami to Tallahassee to Washington, Ballard is a must-call for Florida Republican candidates. Aside from his Trump ties, Ballard had solid GOP establishment credentials in prior Republican presidential campaigns. He was national finance chair for Mitt Romney’s 2012 bid and John McCain’s 2008 race.

Ballard began lobbying on behalf of the Trump Organization in Florida more than a decade ago, he said. He faced a loyalty test heading into the 2016 elections when he started raising money for the then-perceived GOP front-runner, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Ballard then switched to Sen. Marco Rubio. After Rubio dropped out, Ballard joined Trump.

“It got pretty awkward at one point,” Ballard says. “But I talked to him early on and when I first started raising money for Jeb, he basically released me, saying ‘I doubt I’m going to run. But if I run, I realize you have to be with the Florida guys. But just help me when you can and be my friend.’ He didn’t need me to raise money anyway.”

Ballard recommended one of his firm’s lobbyists, Susie Wiles, to run Trump’s campaign operations in Florida.

Once Trump became president, Ballard stopped representing him. But he also opened a Washington office, hired former Ambassador Otto Reich and Democratic former Rep. Robert Wexler to lobby the administration and promptly snapped up foreign clients like Turkey and the Dominican Republic.

“I’m not sneaking up on anybody. I was his lobbyist and anyone who knows me and knows my business knows that. We’re not part of the crew that says, ‘Hey, let’s go to town and take advantage of the new administration.’ We came here with a different path, by clients who wanted us to come to D.C.,” Ballard says. “I kind of came reluctantly and I get the criticism. It’s fair criticism. But we have a job to do.” — Marc Caputo

Photos by John Shinkle/POLITICO.