The Southwest Division is ready to take a big leap next season

The NBA’s Southwest division had two Playoff teams in 2023-24 (Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans), but overall it was a down season for what used to be the toughest division in the NBA. However, good health, some solid moves in free agency and internal growth has it is shaping up to be one of the most competitive of the six divisions for the upcoming season.

Some compelling storylines in the division are the Dallas Mavericks’ quest for redemption, Ja Morant reclaiming his status as an elite player, Zion Williamson staying healthy to maximize the New Orleans Pelicans, who the Houston Rockets keep between Alpheren Şengün and Jalen Green, and how far can the French Usurper, Victor Wembanyama, can elevate the San Antonio Spurs in year two.

Below, we will take a look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses and predict where they will finish the seaosn.

Dallas Mavericks

Expected record: 53-29

The Wild Horses are as strong as its team that lost in the Finals, but with some new faces. That doesn’t mean they will make it out of the West this time.

Strengths:

The reigning Western Conference champions have a luxury in two capable scorers, Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, who can create separation and overreactions easily, giving room to the marksmen.

Adding Naji Marshall for the non-taxpayer midlevel exception adds a wing who had his most accurate season in 2023-24 (EFG- 54.2 percent). He is also a serviceable defender who will be most impactful in the backline, allowing the Mavericks to play small and fast.

Quentin Grimes was brought in after the exchange for Tim Hardaway Jr. and second-round draft compensation. The previous campaign was a down year for Grimes in part because of injuries but in 2022-23, recorded 61.9 percent in the true shooting department. The NBA defines true shooting as “A shooting percentage that factors in the value of three-point field goals and free throws in addition to conventional two-point field goals.”

The Mavericks are gambling on getting the old Grimes back, which would give them a postseason rotation player, something Hardaway wasn’t recently.

Klay Thompson signed a three-year deal with the Mavericks, too. Despite natural regression, he is still durable and one of the NBA’s top catch-and-shoot snipers. In 2022-23, Thompson connected on a career-high 301 trays on 41.2 percent shooting. He made 268 last season with 38.7 percent accuracy.

Thompson’s skill set gives the Mavericks a lethal release valve when Dončic and Irving are trapped at the baseline or doubled high.

Weaknesses:

Replacing Derrick Jones Jr. with Thompson will hurt the group most on defense because the latter can no longer guard the other team’s best perimeter player. Jones did well, and his screen navigation gave the protectors in the back extra moments to get in the right spots. He’s now a Los Angeles Clipper. To a lesser degree, while gaining Thompson’s deep touch, the Mavericks have lost Jones’ off-ball athleticism, which allowed him to finish above the rim.

Dončić’s refusal to commit to defense is embarrassing. If other players grow disinterested at guarding, he will have some responsibility as the example.

And the bigs, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, have weak offensive games as they are just lob threats and score on putbacks. They can’t be depended on to open up the perimeter from the post or hit pick-and-pop shots.

Memphis Grizzlies

Expected record: 51-31

When did you last see a team run back a 27-win group and expect to be in the hunt? The Grizzlies also picked Zach Edey, back-to-back National College Player of the Year (2023 and 2024), ninth in the draft.

Strengths:

Ja Morant, one of the top shot creators in the league, will be with the group from day one in 2024-25 after recovering from a shoulder injury that permitted him to play in nine games last year after his suspension for conduct detrimental to the league. His presence gives Memphis one of the top backcourts in the NBA next to Desmond Bane, a versatile on and off-ball threat.

Defensive ace Marcus Smart is the perfect role player to lead the second unit because of his IQ and motor. Forward GG Jackson, who blossomed in 48 outings last year as a scoring switchblade, should get plenty of time next to Smart and other reserves.

Edey’s post presence, at 7-foot-4, will command extra help, leaving someone open. He is too big, too skilled and too powerful to learn from the sidelines.

Weaknesses:

Losing Steven Adams, who didn’t play last year as his posterior cruciate ligament healed, will be a blow to the locker room leadership.

Deep shooting is still scarce next to Bane.

And the Grizzlies were 25th in rebounding percentage. Edey will help in this department, but the rest of the squad has to do a better job of gang rebounding.

New Orleans Pelicans

Expected record: 46-36

Dejounte Murray was traded to NOLA for Dyson Daniels, E.J. Liddell, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, and two first-round picks (2025 and 2027).

Brandon Ingram’s end-of-season performance was appalling, and his contract situation remains unresolved. Yet, the Pelicans insist he wants to stay.

Zion Williamson had his second-healthiest pro season in 2023-24, playing 70 games, but he was derailed at the most important time due to a hamstring injury, missing the Play-In Tournament and first round.

Strengths:

According to Basketball Reference, Williamson gets to the rim when he pleases, recording 71.7 percent of attempted shots in that spot. He’s a much-improved playmaker as well and can be the setup man, which will take pressure off Murray, CJ McCollum and Ingram if he’s still around.

Murray’s speed and inside the arc efficiency are helpful because it gives the Pelicans another player who can create his shot. His contributions as a defensive rebounder will lead to open court opportunities, helping the Pelicans play faster.

Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III’s switching on defense suffocates opponents. Their tools and IQ allow them to excel in man coverage and in multiple areas of a zone.

Weaknesses:

Murray doesn’t get to the line enough for someone that dynamic, taking 3.4 freebies per game last season. Furthermore, Murray fell off defensively as an Atlanta Hawk because he wasn’t as engaged and did poorly switching on forwards while having nice physical tools. In his last year with the Spurs (2021-22), he held forwards to 51.5 percent of attempts for a quarter of his time on defense. In the same amount of time, he gave up 57.2 percent to that position group in 2023-24.

NOLA is suspect at center. They lost Jonas Valančiūnas’ rebounding, although he was a poor defender. But his replacement is Daniel Theis, who can cover more spots but was the Clippers’ 11th man (minutes per game) in the regular season and was sparsely used in the Playoffs. Rookie Yves Missi is ahead of Theis on ESPN’s depth chart.

And Williamson’s body habitually betrays him, making it difficult to depend on his services late in the year. He was drafted in 2019 and has played in 184 of 390 matches. At this point, it would be like hitting the lottery again if the Pelicans could get a semi-healthy season out of Williamson like the Portland Trail Blazers got from Bill Walton in 1976-77 or the Toronto Raptors lucked into with Kawhi Leonard in 2018-19.

Houston Rockets

Expected record: 43-39

The Rockets picked Reed Sheppard third on draft night to help with its offensive challenges. In 2023-24, the group was in the bottom third of all squads in offensive rating.

Strengths:

Coach Ime Udoka is a respected leader who will likely squeeze a bit more juice out of his troops as they continue to form an identity.

Veteran Fred VanVleet is a dependable locker room chief, too.

In 2023-24, the Rockets were the top regular season team in covering the 3-point line, allowing the opponent 34.8 percent of made shots. To boot, H-Town’s squad possessed the ninth-ranked defense. Keep in mind, no serious rotation player left.

Alperen Şengün eats at close range and has impressive footwork that opens up the perimeter or cutting avenues. He and Jalen Green, Houston’s scoring guard, qualify for raises, so both are motivated to have career years. Green had 16 games last season scoring at least 30 points and he converted at least 50 percent of his attempts in 14 of those matches.

Weaknesses:

The Rockets were 23rd of 30 teams in 3-point percentage and generated low rim pressure last year. VanVleet was the only starter to shoot above average from deep.

The offense needs more creativity, as the previous unit was fourth-worst in the league in assist percentage. To pile on, the Rockets were 28th in made passes.

San Antonio Spurs

Expected record: 37-45

Unquestionably, the summer moves make the Spurs look like a respectable club again on paper and the soft tank is over. Still, overtaking the Rockets in the standings, who won 19 more matches last year, is still an arduous task.

Strengths:

Victor Wembanyama will have a seismic second-year leap.

Moreover, the Spurs will have a razorlike pick-and-roll attack with Chris Paul and Wembanyama. They will generate so much attention that Devin Vassell will have the most open looks he’s ever had in the NBA as a backup weapon. Paul’s passing and decision-making will ensure W raises his shooting splits and doesn’t have to work too hard for his shot on other sets, either.

The newly acquired Harrison Barnes is a champion who brings cutting, veteran leadership and experience.

Stephon Castle is a point-of-attack pest. His disruption up top should generate some fastbreak opportunities and will provide Wemby a spare moment to watch the ball handler and tag the roller.

Weaknesses:

Backup center Zach Collins is a drop defender, as Wembanyama is mainly at this stage, which can make them targets of elite players in pick and roll. The standards of being a great defensive big man are higher now than ever before because of the prevalence of the 3-point shot. Bigs must tag the perimeter when screens compromise their smaller teammates or else they are giving up a decent look.

The Spurs lack reliable offensive options and don’t have an established veteran to lead the second unit, but that doesn’t mean they won’t take a big step forward next season.