1 week agoAlthough Carson Hocevar has been the best rookie this year and is on something of a hot streak (especially considering the caliber of Spire Motorsports equipment), Daytona remains a big question mark for him since he crashed five laps into the Daytona 500 for his only DNF of the year in his only previous start there. He never led there in the Craftsman Truck Series either, as Daytona tended to be his current teammate Zane Smith's stomping ground. Corey LaJoie's top five in the Daytona 500 proves Spire has speed at Daytona but Hocevar's history of overdriving means the most crash-prone tracks like Daytona probably don't suit him as well as others. Nonetheless, his car control is so great that he tends to get away with overdriving, which suggests despite his paltry record, he may extend his run of consistency after all.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoAlthough Daniel Hemric has been very slow in the NASCAR Cup Series this year, he has been smooth and polished and good at crash avoidance; his racecraft certainly exceeds his raw talent. That definitely suits him well for a track like Daytona, where half the field regularly crashes. Hemric's steady hand has given him three top twenties at Daytona and he genuinely looked fast for one of the only times this season at Talladega. Kaulig Racing has obviously been one of the fastest teams in Xfinity Series drafting races for years, but that hasn't really extended to the Cup Series much yet. Nonetheless, crash avoidance is definitely his primary strength, so don't be surprised if he finishes, but he probably isn't fast enough to fight for the win.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoDenny Hamlin received a 75-point penalty for his team disassembling an engine before NASCAR could inspect it after his win at Bristol. Although the playoff point penalty he received was relatively minor in comparison, the 75-point penalty does effectively eliminate him from the regular-season championship. Counterintuitively, that will actually allow Hamlin to take more risks to go for the win since he is both locked into the playoffs but also no longer needs to points race. While Hamlin has more wins (3) and laps led (676) than any other active driver at Daytona, he was much stronger with the Gen 6 chassis than he has been with the Next Gen. While he still leads most races there, he hasn't gotten a top ten since 2021 despite only crashing out twice. It's understandable why he's the betting favorite, but maybe he shouldn't be with this chassis.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoWhile Noah Gragson hasn't really embarrassed himself in 2024 like he did the previous year, he hasn't really done much either and has been a very anonymous performer. The one exception came at Talladega, where he finished third and actually posted the best driver rating. Since he finished ninth in the Daytona 500 and also won his first Xfinity Series race there as well, he clearly has something of a knack for drafting. Additionally, the Fords clearly have speed as they have dominated qualifying all year, but they have pretty consistently faded through the races as the Toyotas and the Chevies have seemed to consistently have better strategy. Gragson's record suggests he may be one of the likelier dark horses to win his way into the playoffs, but Ford's recent history of late race fades on drafting tracks will probably prevent him from doing that.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoChase Elliott sits 10 points behind Tyler Reddick for the regular-season points lead with two races before the playoffs as he seeks to win his second regular-season championship. Although he has never yet won at Daytona unlike his father Bill, he has been consistently competitive, winning three poles and leading at some point in almost every race, including two second-place finishes. It seems probable that Elliott will win there at some point, but will it be Saturday? Probably not, as he has adopted for a more conservative style than usual in response to missing the 2023 playoffs, and he is more likely to want to minimize the probability of a crash, particularly since Reddick crashes there more frequently than he does. Expect Elliott to attempt to play it safe rather than going for the win.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoAfter Richard Childress's appeal of Austin Dillon's rough driving penalty at Richmond was denied, Dillon is once again in a must-win situation for the playoffs. He already proved twice on drafting tracks even before Richmond that he would wreck anyone for a playoff spot, wrecking Aric Almirola in the 2018 Daytona 500 and Austin Cindric at this event in 2022; he wouldn't have made the playoffs in either year without those wrecks. While he has certainly run a little better since Justin Alexander's return, he has still led only one race this year and it wasn't a drafting race. Even after Alexander's return, it seems likely that Dillon won't even have the speed to put himself in a position to cause another wreck for the win. Hopefully, NASCAR's penalty served as enough of a deterrent to keep him from trying his patented cheap shot again.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoRoss Chastain qualified 24th at Daytona. He holds a one-point advantage over Bubba Wallace for the final spot in the playoffs after passing him on track on the final restart at Michigan to salvage a pyrrhic victory. Although he has never scored a top five finish at Daytona, he came very close in the Daytona 500 when he attempted a pass on leader William Byron at the same moment Corey LaJoie made slight contact with Austin Cindric which sent him into Chastain and resulted in both drivers spinning. Chastain has a certain bravado that may make him likelier to pass for the win more than many other drivers, but his history of overtime crashes this season may lead him to play it safe by focusing on collecting stage points over winning, so the odds of him winning may be less likely than if he was already locked in the playoffs.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoWilliam Byron starts seventh for Saturday night's Daytona race, higher than all other non-Ford drivers, and he's had a strong record there historically. In addition to winning the season-opening Daytona 500 in a tight duel with his teammate Alex Bowman, he also won his first race there four years ago in this race and also won his first pole for the 2019 Daytona 500. However, Byron has crashed out of seven of his other 11 races there, so naturally his performance there can be hard to predict. He has been an impressive duelist this year, as his 12-7 on-track lead-change record is one of the best in the NASCAR Cup Series, and on-track passing is frequently correlated with drafting prowess. He will likely fight for the win if he doesn't crash, but given his past history, he is more likely to crash.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoChris Buescher led his teammate and car owner Brad Keselowski to a 1-2 finish in last year's Daytona night race, but this year he's in a much more precarious situation, as he is winless and sits only 16 points above the playoff cut line. Since he has a cushion over both Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace and is also very good at Darlington, expect Buescher to play it very safe in an attempt to avoid crashing to protect his playoff position. Buescher is one of the best drivers at crash avoidance in the NASCAR Cup Series, so this situation should play to his advantage. His biggest concern might be playing it too safe, since Chastain and Wallace are likelier to make aggressive plays for stage points, but the playoff bubble might come down to whoever doesn't crash and whether a driver below the cut line wins, and that's almost impossible to predict.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoDespite his impressive streak of six consecutive front-row starts in the Daytona 500 from 2018 to 2023, Daytona hasn't been one of Alex Bowman's best tracks, as he has only led 42 laps there despite his qualifying dominance and has seldom factored in for a win on any drafting oval. This year's Daytona 500 was admittedly a big exception. Although he didn't lead, he finished second in the race and likely would have won had NASCAR waited a few more seconds to throw the caution. Bowman has been fairly consistent at getting finishes at Daytona and has finished in the top six the last three races, but it's hard to predict who will crash, and he has not been great at passing for the lead lately. If he doesn't crash, a top-10 finish is likely, but he probably won't factor in for the win.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
1 week agoJoe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. will start 17th in his final race at Daytona International Speedway as a full-time driver, the Coke Zero Sugar 400. This starting position is an improvement over his Daytona 500 starting position, where he started that race from the 27th position. In 38 Cup starts at Daytona, Truex has six top-10 finishes, with his last one being scored in the August 2022 Cup event at the site. After 24 races in the 2024 season, Truex has top-20 finishes, including nine inside the Top 10. Truex placed in the Top 15 in all three races that utilized the superspeedway rules package earlier this year while leading multiple laps at Atlanta and Talladega. Based on his equipment and 2024 performance, Truex is a driver who will compete for a top-10 finish and is a favorable choice to roster in any DFS format.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
1 week agoXfinity Series driver Parker Retzlaff will be starting 29th in his first Cup start with Beard Motorsports in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. This is the first time Retzlaff will start in the Top 30 in a Cup Series race in just his second overall Cup start. In four Xfinity Series starts at Daytona, Retzlaff has three top-10 finishes and gained positive Place Differential three times. In his previous start in the Cup Series this year at Richmond, Retzlaff finished 35th after starting 37th. Despite his inexperience in a Cup car, Retzlaff should still be worth consideration based on his equipment and how Beard Motorsports generally finishes decently and collects positive PD regardless of the driver. As Retzlaff is one of the cheapest drivers in the field, he is worth taking a chance on in any DFS format this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: NASCAR.com
1 week agoXfinity Series regular Austin Hill will start 23rd in this week's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway in a third Richard Childress Racing entry. This is the best starting position in the Cup Series at Daytona for Hill, who is making just his second start at the site. In his only Cup start for Beard Motorsports in 2024, Hill started 26th and finished 14th, collecting positive Place Differential in the process. In seven Xfinity Series starts at Daytona, Hill has three wins and led multiple laps in five total races at the site. In three races on a part-time schedule this year, Hill has two finishes with positive PD and a best finish of 31st. Based on his equipment and Xfinity history at Daytona, Hill is one of the better value options for DFS this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
1 week agoFront Row Motorsports driver Todd Gilliland qualified second for this week's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. This is the highest starting position of his Cup Series career at Daytona and of the 2024 season so far. In five races at DIS in the Cup Series, Gilliland's best career finish was 23rd. The No. 38 Ford driver also led 16 laps earlier in the year at the site during the Daytona 500. Through 24 races this season, Gilliland has 14 top-20 finishes, including four inside the Top 10. This includes Talladega, a track with a similar layout and rules package to Daytona, earlier in the year, where he placed eighth. Although he carries little Place Differential upside and historically has not carried the best finishes at Daytona, Gilliland's team at Front Row Motorsports is one of the most competitive on tracks with the superspeedway rules package. Gilliland is best considered a tournament play with a high chance of competing for the win on Saturday night based on equipment and his 2024 performance so far.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
1 week agoTy Gibbs will start this week's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway from the 26th position. This is the second-lowest starting position of the No. 54 Toyota driver's cup career, with only his start in the 2023 Daytona 500 being worse. In four previous starts at Daytona, Gibbs has two top-20 finishes and a best-finishing position of 13th. After 24 races completed in his sophomore season, Gibbs has 16 top-20 finishes, with 10 inside the Top 10. This includes top-20 results at both Daytona and Atlanta earlier in the season. With his starting position towards the back half of the field, solid equipment, and Place Differential upside, Gibbs is a driver that fantasy players should consider in any format this week, especially with his salary falling below average on both DFS sites.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
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