Good morning from Arlington, Texas,
The first portion of today’s newsletter is essentially a David Peralta appreciation post.
You can read in my game story (here) about how the Padres once again found themselves down and how they came back and how a struggling Peralta provided the decisive blow with a two-run homer in the seventh inning of a 6-4 victory over the Rangers.
“Very cool,” Jurickson Profar said of Peralta’s heroics. “He always has a lot of energy. As a player, you always want the results to be there too. We were all very, very happy for him. He’s always rooting for us. Tonight we had a really good chance to root for him.”
I wrote in Monday’s newsletter (here) about Perlata’s constant positive vibe and how he is virtually always the first player out of the dugout to congratulate a teammate.
But he knows the business of baseball and that being able to contribute is imperative for a 36-year-old role player to stick around.
“Big relief,” Peralta said. “Definitely a relief. It’s just this moment, like, I’ve been working so hard every single day to help the team to do something and, finally, I did something good for the team. I was trying to do my best and do my best every time that I get the opportunity. And to get an opportunity and do it the way it happened … that was really special for me. It was good for the team too.”
Peralta raised his batting average to .210 (13-for-62) and his OPS to .590 with that home run, his first with the Padres.
What time is it? Showtime 🚂 pic.twitter.com/4DXhglCevb
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 4, 2024
“What a teammate, just a great competitor, a true pro,” manager Mike Shildt said. “… You can see him, he’s wanting to do well, clearly. But it didn’t get in the way of allowing himself to still focus properly and just put a good swing. He took a tremendous at-bat and, obviously, a huge swing for him and us.
“The thing I appreciate about David is it was a relief, clearly for himself, but I really sincerely believe it was a relief to know that he’s helping this club, which he has. He’s helped this club in a lot of different ways. But I really feel like that two-run homer for him was as much for this team and the situation as it was for any self enjoyment. Says a lot about him.”
Peralta long ago was a discarded minor-league pitcher who remade himself into a highly productive major league outfielder. He took a minor-league contract with the Cubs in February, was released in May and signed a minor-league deal with the Padres. He was called up a few days later (on May 22) and is now inching toward 10 years of big-league service time.
“You gotta have a positive mentality,” Peralta said last night. “It’s not easy when things aren’t going your way. But the great thing is I’ve got the support from all the teammates, the coaching staff. They’re always working with me and they help you keep energy that you can feel. Like the mentality that we have on this team, it helps you a lot to go through the day.”
Has to improve
OK, now a break from the positivity.
Let’s talk about a real problem.
It is actually amazing the Padres (47-43) have as good a record as they do.
Last night was another instance of their starting pitcher burying them early.
Yes, the Padres have dug out the hole relatively often. But that is not a recipe for success.
The starting rotation is a millstone around the team’s neck. At best, it is making their continuing to tread water more difficult. At worst, it will sink them.
Their pitchers have had some remarkable pitching performances this season, to be sure. But detours such as what happened Wednesday are keeping them from maintaining a path to the playoffs.
This is not conjecture. This is what the Padres acknowledge internally. And it is what history says.
Wednesday was the 24th time in 2024 that a Padres’ opponent scored at least three runs in the first three innings. It was the 22nd time in those 24 games that the Padres trailed after three innings.
Yes, it ended up being the eighth time they came back to win after their pitcher allowed that many runs that early. That’s impressive. It is also still an 8-16 record.
The Padres have been outscored by 32 runs in the first three innings of games this season.
The only teams to have been outscored by more over the first three innings are the five worst teams in the major leagues by record (White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, A’s and Angels) and the Giants, who are 42-45.
This is almost certainly not sustainable.
Of the 54 playoff teams over the past five full MLB seasons, just five (9.3 percent) were outscored over the first three innings of games during the regular season.
Yes, the Padres could do better on offense at the start of games. Their 120 runs in the first three innings of games rank 17th in the majors. But they could hardly do worse pitching. Their 152 runs allowed are fourth most, better than only the Rockies, Marlins and A’s.
Five times this season, the Padres have scored at least three runs in the first three innings and trailed. Last night was the eighth time they have scored two runs in the first three innings and trailed.
After the Padres took a 2-0 lead in the top of the third last night, rookie Adam Mazur yielded three runs in the bottom of the third and another in the fourth.
The night before, it was Dylan Cease. On Sunday, even dependable Matt Waldron stumbled. It has been all of the Padres’ starting pitchers at least once this season.
For the Padres to have a chance, Cease pretty much has to get back to the pitcher who was consistent enough to post a 2.19 ERA over his first eight starts. Or at least be a lot closer to that than the 6.15 ERA he has over his past 10 starts. He has allowed four or more runs in the first four innings three times in his past nine starts. He did not do that at all in his first nine starts.
Beyond that, the Padres expect Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove to return between late July (Darvish) and early August (Musgrove). However, the team can do little more than cross its collective fingers regarding the ongoing health of the two veterans.
So President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller is aggressively working the phones in search of a frontline starter, of which there honestly are not that many available.
Only recently have a handful of teams begun to show a willingness to go beyond generalities and overly steep asking prices, a signal that the market is getting closer to movement.
However, there are as many as 22 teams that consider themselves to still be at least fringe playoff contenders. That number will likely shrink in the next couple weeks. So most expect the trades to start after the July 16 All-Star game, which is exactly two weeks before the trade deadline.
A little thing
Mazur retired the first six batters he faced before having trouble getting outs over his final two innings and departing with the Padres down 4-2.
It should be noted, however, that he came through in one at-bat that allowed Shildt to navigate the rest of the game fairly smoothly.
Marcus Semien was going to be Mazur’s final batter regardless of what happened. Left-hander Yuki Matsui was warming up.
And when Semien flied out to end the fourth inning, that meant Matsui could wait until the start of the fifth inning to come in to face the largely left-handed-hitting core of the Rangers’ lineup.
Matusi allowed a double and a walk with two outs before getting out of the fifth inning with a strikeout and starting the sixth with a strikeout.
Adrián Morejón replaced Matsui and retired five straight batters. Jeremiah Estrada began the eighth by getting two outs before yielding a single.
That is when Shildt went to Suarez, who retired all four batters he faced to end the game.
Shildt called it an “A-plus” game by the bullpen, and at least a little credit has to go to Mazur.
All-Stars
You can read in my story (here) from yesterday afternoon about Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. being selected by fans as All-Star starters.
They are the first Padres outfielders since Tony Gwynn in 1999 to be voted in as starters and, if not for Tatis being sidelined by a stress reaction in his right femur, would have been the first Padres teammates to start an All-Star game since Gwynn and Ken Caminiti in 1997.
Tatis, who was the NL’s starting shortstop in 2021, would have been the first player to ever start All-Star games at shortstop and in the outfield.
Also in that story is a typically fantastic Profar quote about why his first All-Star selection means so much to him.
Tidbits
- As expected, Xander Bogaerts departed Globe Life Field yesterday afternoon headed to catch a flight to El Paso, where he will begin a rehab assignment today. Bogaerts is expected to serve as designated hitter for the Padres’ Triple-A club in his first game and then start at second base. Bogaerts, who suffered a fracture in his left shoulder diving for a ball on May 20, could be back in time for the Padres’ final series (July 12-14) before the All-Star break.
- Jackson Merrill was named the NL Rookie of the Month for June. He hit nine home runs in the month, all in a span of 16 games between June 12 and 29. Merrill finished June with a .320 average and .996 OPS.
- Randy Vásquez continued to prepare for his next start, which it appears will come tomorrow or Saturday against the Diamondbacks. Vásquez departed his Friday start in Boston after being hit on the right (throwing) forearm by a line drive.
- Last night was Suarez’s fifth save in which he got at least four outs. That is tied with Seattle’s Andres Muñoz for most in the major leagues.
- Matsui has not allowed a run in 12 appearances (12 innings). He has stranded three inherited runners in that span.
- Estrada struck out the first two batters he faced last night. He had gone a season-high eight batters without a strikeout before that. Estrada’s 41.7 percent strikeout rate is second among all relievers behind Oakland’s Mason Miller (46.5).
- The Padres stole a season-high five bases last night, including two by Ha-Seong Kim. He has stolen three bases in the past two games and leads the team with 17 this season.
- Luis Arraez struck out in his first two at-bats last night before finishing 1-for-5 with an RBI single. It was his first two-strikeout game with the Padres and third this season. He has never struck out three times in a game.
- Yesterday was the first time in eight games since Tatis went on the injured list that Bryce Johnson did not start in right field. Peralta started because Jon Gray was on the mound, and he entered the game having gone 20-for-40 against Gray. Gray retired Peralta both times they faced each other last night. Peralta’s homer came against Dane Dunning.
- Gray, who signed with the Rangers before the 2022 season, was 12-6 with a 2.99 ERA in 24 starts against the Padres while with the Rockies. But Manny Machado had his number. And Machado, who had four home runs and a double among his 12 hits in 33 at-bats against Gray, hit a two-run homer off him last night.
- After hitting six home runs in his first 266 at-bats this season, Machado has hit five in his past 48 at-bats. The past three have come against sliders.
- The Padres had 13 hits last night. That seems to be their magic number. They are 12-0 when having at least 13 hits. (They are 6-2 when having exactly 12 hits.)
- The Padres improved to 5-5 when wearing their brown road tops.
- Do not miss Jay Posner’s story (here) on Padres radio play-by-play voice Jesse Agler. I knew some of the things about Jesse that were in the story, but I learned a lot about someone I respect very much. Also, kudos to sports editor Ryan Finley for letting Jay write so long. It is a fact there is no way the previous editor allows that.
All right, that’s it for me. Early game today (11:35 a.m. PT).
Talk to you tomorrow.
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