NFL Betting Trends

The National Football League (NFL) is the most popular sport to bet on at online sportsbooks, which means there’s a ton of public money on these games, especially for primetime slots like Monday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, and NFL Playoff matchups. Sharp football bettors will use NFL betting trends to find games with value, particularly on underdogs.

Our NFL Betting Trends will show you just that. By combining historical football data with our NFL consensus picks data, bettors can see how often a team covers the spread when, for example, 80% of the public is betting against them. This usually means that there is value because the spread has moved an additional half-point (or more!) from its opening line. In general, novice bettors underrate the value of a half-point, especially when it comes to NFL key numbers.

Additionally, one of my favorite trends involves the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Despite being one of the most popular teams to bet, the Chiefs have been extremely profitable in games with shorter spreads (within one possession), but have routinely failed to cover when the spread involves more points. Why the difference? Like our NBA example with the Golden State Warriors, this trend also make sense when you dig in.

As Super Bowl favorites who have dominated regular-season moneylines, the Chiefs often play with a cushion. They haven’t had to worry about their playoff spot or close divisional races, so there’s little reason to risk the health of their star players or for Andy Reid to show all his cards and tricks against bad teams, in games with larger spreads. This means Mahomes is using his legs less, the Chiefs are not as creative with their play-calling, among other things. However, games with shorter spreads tend to be high-leverage situations, since they’re against better opponents who could potentially compete for home-field advantage. In these games, Mahomes is more likely to scramble and Reid is more likely to use his full arsenal to ensure victory.

Our sports betting experts will often use NFL betting trends, among other stats and pieces of information, when making Premium Picks.