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MDM4U(AP) Chapter 9.

2 Quiz

Name: Solutions 10 marks = 15 minutes

Hypothesis Test [10 marks]. Nationally, the proportion of red cars on the road is 0.12. A statisticallyminded fan of the Philadelphia Phillies (whose team color is red) wonders if Phillies fans are more likely to drive red cars. One day during a home game, he takes an SRS of 210 cars parked at Citizens Bank Park (the Phillies home field) while a game is being played, and counts 35 red cars. (There are 21,000 parking spaces.) Is this convincing evidence that Phillies fans prefer red cars more than the general population? Support your conclusion with a test of significance.

State: We wish to test H0 : p 0.12 versus Ha : p 0.12, where p = the true proportion of red cars in the parking lot. We will use a significance level of = 0.05. Plan: The procedure is a one-sample z-test for a proportion. Conditions: Random: The fan took an SRS of 210 cars. Normal: np = (210)(0.12) = 24 > 10 and n(1 - p) = (210)(0.88) = 184.8 > 10 Independent: Random selection ensures that individual observations are independent and 10 X 210 = 2100 is less than 21 000. Do: , so

; P-value = 0.0187.

Conclude: A P-value of 0.0187 is less than = 0.05, so we reject H0 and conclude that there is convincing evidence that the true proportion of red cars at Citizens Bank Park is greater than 0.12.
Bonus [2 marks possible]: Construct a 95% Confidence Interval for the true proportion of Phillies fans who drive red cars. (You do not need to check conditions if you have done so in the original question. Simply show your calculations and state your conclusion.)

95% C.I. for p:

We are 95 percent confident that the true proportion of Phillies fans who drive red cars is between 12.27 and 21.07 percent.

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