MC Kinsey Investigación Impact of Internet On Economic Growth
MC Kinsey Investigación Impact of Internet On Economic Growth
EXHIBIT 1
Share of GDP
%
736
1.8
Private
investment
1.0
395
Public
expenditure
209
0.5
Trade balance
36
0.1
Total
1,376
3.4 percent
of GDP
EXHIBIT 2
Real estate
Financial services
6.4
Health care
6.3
Construction
5.4
Discrete manufacturing
5.2
3.9
Transportation
Education
3.0
Communication
3.0
Agriculture
2.2
Utilities
2.1
Mining
1.7
Internet1: 3.4
1 Internet share includes parts of other sectors (e.g., communication).
SOURCE: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; McKinsey analysis
In the advanced economies we studied, the Internet accounted for 10 percent of GDP growth
over the past 15 years, and its influence is growing. Over the past five years, the Internets
contribution to GDP growth in these countries doubled to 21 percent. If we include the large,
emerging economies of China, India, and Brazil, the Internet contributed 7 percent of growth
over the past 15 years and 11 percent over the past five. In countries such as Turkey,
Malaysia, and Mexico, where both Internet usage and GDP per capita fall within the medium
range on the global scale, the Internet has also contributed substantially to economic growth,
though to a lesser degree than in mature economies. Research currently under way suggests
the Internet drove roughly half as much GDP growth in these countriesstill a substantial
amount with the potential to increase significantly. However, there is sizable variation among
countries, including those at relatively similar stages of development, leaving tremendous room
for further Internet-related growth.
Internet ecosystem maturity related to rising living standards
There is also a clear connection between the maturity of the Internet ecosystem1 and rising
living standards. We found that an increase in Internet maturity similar to the one experienced
in advanced countries over the past 15 years correlates with an increase in real per capita
GDP of $500 on average during this period. It took 50 years for the Industrial Revolution of the
19th century to achieve the same results. This demonstrates both the magnitude of the positive
impact the Internet delivers to all levels of society and the speed at which it delivers them. The
correlation to increased living standards is particularly relevant for developing economies,
where the potential exists to rapidly leap forward and drive Internet-related growth.
Although the United States has thus far led in terms of the strength of its Internet infrastructure,
access, and innovation, the landscape is evolving rapidly. India, China, and Brazil have the
fastest-growing ecosystems, and other developed and developing countries are rapidly
growing their usage through improved infrastructure and access.
The Internet drives business transformation and economic modernization
Rejuvenating traditional activities has been the Internets main impact. The Internet has
enabled fundamental business transformations that span the entire value chain in virtually all
sectors and types of companiesnot just online ones. These shifts include wholesale changes
not only in how products are bought and sold but also in how products and services are
designed, produced, and distributed. Even a tiny business today can operate with a
dynamically managed supply chain that spans geographies and operates with a global
workforce. Our global Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) survey found that 75 percent of the
economic impact of the Internet accrued to traditional companies that would not define
themselves as pure Internet players. These businesses have benefited from the higher
productivity the Internet enables.
The Internet can also serve as a powerful catalyst for job creation. Of course the Internet has
made some jobs obsolete. However, early evidence suggests the Internet can be a net job
creator. Jobs are created in the Internet ecosystem itself, as Internet companies hire workers
The McKinsey Global Institute created an index to reflect Internet maturity of a country. Referred to as the e3
index, it measures e-ngagement, e-nvironment, and e-xpenditure, which are themselves largely based on
numbers provided by the World Economic Forum and OECD. Weighing these three components, the e3
index represents the depth of a countrys maturity in access infrastructure and Internet usage by individuals,
businesses, and governments. Scandinavian and North American countries, three north European countries
(the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), and South Korea capture the top ten positions in
our e3 rankings. See McKinsey Global Institute, Internet matters: The Nets sweeping impact on growth,
jobs, and prosperity, May 2011.
ranging from engineers to sales and service personnel who design and deliver Internet
products and services. However, the Internet also has helped create jobs in other industries. A
detailed analysis of the French economy, for example, showed that while the Internet is
reported to have destroyed 500,000 jobs over the past 15 years, it created 1.2 million new
ones, a net addition of 2.4 jobs for every one destroyed. This conclusion is supported by
McKinseys global SME survey, which found 2.6 jobs were created for every one destroyed.
Web intensity1
Low
(Web index <20%)
Medium
(Web index 2040%)
Revenues due
to exports
% of total
6.2
2.5
7.4
High
(Web index >40%)
2.7
13.0
X2.1
5.3
X2.1
The Internets biggest impact on SMEs has been as a great leveler, making it possible for a
small firm to be a global company from day one, with the reach and capabilities that once only
large companies could possess. They can reach customers, find suppliers, and tap talent on
the other side of the world and also use the Internet to provide significant marketing and brand
muscle. As a result, small firms can compete like big ones. This has led to the emergence of
so-called micro-multinationals, some of which are born global. In other words, these
companies start with operations and business relationships in multiple countries, breaking the
old mold of entrepreneurship that begins in a single country and only expands to others when
the company has reached a large scale.
But we should not overlook peoplethe real beneficiaries of the Internets growth. The Internet
has fundamentally empowered the consumer, allowing shoppers to compare prices, find
instant sales, and locate specific makes of automobiles or attractive rental properties without
the use of brokers and dealers. It can offer road directions or health information. It saves the
consumer time, boosts price transparency, and gives customers access to hard-to-find
products. Academic research demonstrates that the more consumers visit price comparison
Web sites, the lower prices fall and the greater the difference between the average and
minimum prices for a particular good. Preliminary research shows online prices are, on
average, 10 percent lower than their offline counterparts as a result of the price transparency
that search tools offer. The economic surplus captured by consumers from web services alone
ranges from $18 a month per user in Germany to $28 in the United Kingdom. The consumer
surplus generated by the Internet in 2009 ranged from $10 billion in France to $64 billion in the
United States.2 (See Exhibit 4.)
EXHIBIT 4
The value of the surplus accruing to users of the Internet varies between
$18 and $28 per user per month in each country
Total Internet
user surplus
$ billion
28
26
United States
22
France
Germany
18
13
64
10
10
1 All in the same currency based on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development exchange rates.
SOURCE: McKinsey study (with Internet Advisory Board); Yankee; McKinsey analysis
People have benefited not just as consumers but as citizens, individuals, and members of
communities as large as nations and as small as a city block or focused around a particular
common interest. The degree to which people use the Internet to seek personal connection,
McKinsey & Company High Tech Practice, The impact of Internet technologies: Search, July 2011.
public information, and new knowledge is large and increasing. For example, 82 percent of US
Internet users start with a search engine when they look for public information or complete a
transaction with a governmental entity, while 80 percent use a search engine as a starting
point for health queries.3 Public organizations and nonprofits are increasingly using the Internet
to conduct their operations, enhancing a range of services from disaster relief coordination to
public safety campaigns. The value of such Internet-enabled activities is immense and in most
cases flows directly to individual people.
ComScore qSearch.
See Jacques Bughin, Michael Chui, and James Manyika, Clouds, big data, and smart assets: Ten techenabled business trends to watch. McKinsey Quarterly, August 2010.
See McKinsey Global Institute, Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity, May
2011.
to changes in the environment. These smart assets can make processes more efficient, give
products new capabilities, and spark novel business models.
Finally, there will be fundamental shifts in how people are organized into increasingly flexible
and multifaceted networks. The ability to organize communities of Internet participants to
develop, market, and support products and services is moving from the margins to the
mainstream. And Internet communities are beginning to perform tasks that enhance the public
good, from updating missing person lists during natural disasters to sharing health information
about rare disease. And the assumptions underlying traditional organizational models will be
stretched as social networks link employees, former employees, customers, and stakeholders
across organizational silos and engage them in solving problems, whether servicing a complex
technical support issue or securing the right talent for a specialized project.
Foster competition. Countries that make their markets more open and competitive
achieve greater productivity. Such competition ensures that the most innovative and
productive companies create more attractive products and services for users and gain
market share at the expense of the less productive. In the Internets rapidly changing
environment such renewal is particularly important to ensure benefits are captured. The
countries that have benefited most from the Internets contribution to growth have tended to
have open and highly competitive Internet ecosystems.
Develop human capital. The United States in particular has used its vast talent pool,
tolerance for risk, and excellent resources in tertiary education to promote Internet-related
human capital, serving as an incubator for new industries and as a magnet to attract talents
from around the globe. This talented human capital has been attracted, generated and
nurtured by universities, corporate Research and Development centers, and early stage
companies. Clusters of entrepreneurship and innovation have formed around world-class
universities that have created the dense, interconnected social webs of personal
relationships that underlie a risk-taking, startup culture. As a result, the United States is
today the country with the most diverse structure within the global Internet ecosystem,
garnering relatively equal contributions from hardware, software, services, and
telecommunications. However, the United States will increasingly compete for such talent
with other countries, as rivals try to emulate some of the features that have characterized
US success as well as come up with innovations of their own.
Growth >10%
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
While the United Kingdom has strong Internet usage, it has lagged behind other countries in terms of
Internet speed, falling below the average for OECD countries. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development, broadband statistics, September 2010.
Of course, certain risks have grown with the Internets rapid adoption. Concerns about privacy,
online fraud, identity theft, and hacking of sensitive materials and databases have captured
significant attention. The frameworks that govern access, usage, protection of various rights,
and considerations of security must be continually reviewed. But these legitimate policy
concerns need to be weighed against the opportunity and growth potential the Internet offers to
enrich lives, build businesses, and give consumers enhanced choices in the years to come.
Achieving the joint aims of security and protection on one hand and economic growth and
participation on the other will require collaboration across the private, public, and nonprofit
sectors.
Policy makers and business leaders should collaborate in a fact-based, public-private dialogue
to assure optimal conditions for the development of the Internet ecosystem within each country
as well as internationally. Open discussions between governments and business leaders can
help create a constructive environment in which the benefits of the Internet can be better
understood and the Internet ecosystem can grow. Issues such as standards for digital
identities and intellectual property protection can be considered as countries strive to stimulate
usage, while topics relevant to improving the supply ecosystem include the availability of talent
and the overall business environment.
Finally, many governments themselves could benefit from increasing their own use of the
Internet to transform the efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector. In many countries,
parts of the public sector continue to suffer low productivity and the adoption of technology in
the public sector often lags well behind what has been accomplished in the private sector.
There is opportunity for both well-managed, large transformations as well as for smaller scale
innovations. For instance, some local governments are shifting motor vehicle registration
online, using a popular private sector strategy: rather than investing in an expensive, fully
automated back-end system, they create public websites that gather the necessary information
from the motorist and feed the data to existing back-end systems. Constituents see only a
user-friendly front endand avoid the trip to the licensing office. Some progress has been
made as governments explore wider use of Web-based services and e-government
initiatives; however the full power of Internet has yet to be unleashed to provide better services
to citizens often at a lower cost.
CONCLUSION
The Internet has already served notice that it will be a disruptive force resolutely shaping the
economy and society of the 21st century. But it can be a positive disruptor, supplying engines
of growth to regions of the world that have been disadvantaged in the past, creating whole new
industries from electrons and software code, and offering hope and opportunity to millions with
its ability to spread knowledge, empower consumers, and organize social interactions.
As the aftermath of the global financial crisis challenges our government and business leaders
to innovate as never before, we should not lose sight of the enormous value the Internet
economy has already brought to rich and poor nations alike and its potential to boost growth
across the globe.