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The Black Swan Concept
The Black Swan Concept
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JCN 1/12
AUTHORISATION
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ii
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PREFACE
The reader must prepare himself for what looks like a reversal of policy;
but which indeed had been the real policy throughout. No sooner had I
won from the Cabinet the authority to order the four super-dreadnoughts of
the year 1914 than I immediately resumed my plans for converting two of
these ships into a much larger number of smaller vessels. I proposed to
treat these dreadnoughts not as capital ships but as units of power which
could, if desirable, be expressed in any other form.. It was necessary to
proceed in great secrecy. How could I ask the Cabinet and Parliament for
four super-dreadnoughts as a vital matter in March [1914] and then
transform two of these precious machines into thirty or forty submarines
and torpedo-craft a few months later?
Winston Churchill 19141
1.
The future Black Swan class sloop-of-war is a manned ship that will
act as the core for a group of manned and unmanned platforms which, as an
integrated system, will provide the units of power required by those surface
assets2 tasked with the protection of sea lines of communication and sea
control. At an acceptable financial cost and operating in groups, the sloops
will provide both the quantity of platforms, and the quality of systems, that will
be demanded of the Royal Navy in the future operating environment. In
operations other than war, the increased hull numbers will provide the
capabilities required to fulfil the maritime security tasks demanded by a
maritime nation as well as the global presence required to engage with the
international community.
2.
The name of the concept is drawn from the Black Swan, and modified
Black Swan, class sloop-of-war, which were built during World War II to
protect shipping and gain sea control. The concept was to combine the
three types of sloop emerging in 1937 into one type for rapid production.3
Although the modified Black Swan class lost its minesweeping capability to
become a more highly specialised gunnery vessel, the original units were
1
First draft of Sir Winston Churchills, The World Crisis, Chartwell Trust: Churchill Papers, Churchill College, Cambridge,
8/61, folder 28.
2
This would include frigates, destroyers, mine countermeasures vessels, hydrographic and oceanographic vessels,
patrol vessels, and their complementary assets/capabilities.
3
Elliott P, Allied Escort Ships of World War II a complete survey, Macdonald and Janes Publishers Limited, 1977,
page 137.
JCN 1/12
iii
McQueen H, The Black Swans of Trespass: The Emergence of Modernist Painting in Australia 1918-1944, Alternative
Publishing, Sydney 1979.
iv
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guidance at the strategic level has come from Joint Doctrine Publication
(JDP) 0-01 (4th Edition), British Defence Doctrine and JDP 0-10 British
Maritime Doctrine as well as operational-level guidance from Allied Joint
Publication 3.1, Allied Joint Maritime Operations. Advice and guidance on
tactical level doctrine and concepts has come from the Maritime Warfare
Centre and the Royal Navys Fighting Instructions.
Acknowledgements
6.
Many individuals from military organisations and academic bodies
have contributed a great deal to the development of this Joint Concept Note.
The author would like to thank all of those who have assisted him in the
production of this publication. Particular thanks must be given to Richard
Braithwaite and Tim Plant who designed the sloop-of-war, Dr Alistair Greig
from University College London and Dr Tim Benbow from the Corbett Centre
of Kings College London, both of whom have provided much academic
rigour.
Captain J A P White, Royal Navy
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iii
vi
The Problem: How to Maintain a Balanced
Fleet Out to 2035
The Future Strategic Maritime Context
The Future Roles of Maritime Power
What Constitutes a Balanced Fleet for the UK?
Summary
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
2-1
2-4
2-10
The Future Black Swan Class Sloopof-War: its Roles, Tasks and Possible Systems
Unmanned Systems
The Sloop of War
vi
1-2
1-5
1-11
1-14
3-1
3-6
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The Problem
Prime Minister David Camerons statement to the House of Commons on the Strategic Defence and Security Review,
Tuesday 19 October 2010, http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/sdsr/.
2
The ability to project power at sea and from the sea to influence the behaviour of people or the course of events. Joint
Doctrine Publication (JDP), 0-10, British Maritime Doctrine, page V.
3
The ability to conduct warfighting under-writes the ability to deliver maritime security and international engagement and
this role has primacy. JDP 0-10, paragraph 215.
4
The Submarine Service, Surface Flotilla, Fleet Air Arm and Royal Marines.
5
This would include frigates, destroyers, mine countermeasures vessels, hydrographic and oceanographic vessels,
patrol vessels, and their complementary assets and capabilities.
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The Problem
In the period from 1946 to 2008, the UK has been involved in 22 state-based conflicts, second only to France on 25,
which equates to 91 conflict years, the fifth most in the world. Human Security Report 209/2010, The Causes of Peace
and The Shrinking Costs of War, Simon Fraser University, Canada, Oxford University Press 2011, pages 165166.
7
Throughout maritime forces are those systems, platforms and vehicles, together with their associated personnel, that
are attributed, trained and certified to operate in the maritime environment.
8
A Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: National Security Strategy (NSS) Cm 7953, October 2010, page 4.
9
Ibid., page 3.
10
Ibid., page 4.
11
The ability to project power at sea and from the sea to influence the behaviour of people or the course of events.
JDP 0-10, page v.
1-2
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The Problem
support or the need for access, basing and overflight permissions from other
countries. Sovereign bases, either afloat or ashore, will remain crucial to
enabling freedom of political action. 12 The ability to continue to provide a
significant contribution to protecting and promoting UK national interests at
home and across the world, at sea and from the sea, on land and in the air, at
all scales of effort and up to the highest intensity, will continue to require a
balanced maritime force with warfighting at its core. The force will need to be
appropriately structured, trained and resourced, and agile enough to take
advantage of technological advances that will be too fast for current
procurement and platform upgrade cycles. This will require maritime
capabilities that are either built to adapt or cheap to replace.
105. Future Character. Out to 2035, an increasingly interdependent world
will be characterised by intense globalisation and competition. While it will
favour many, it will also alienate others. Alongside this, tensions and rivalries
between states and a variety of trans-national pressures, some of which will
be precipitated by climate change will remain. The future character of the
maritime environment will be dominated by littoral 13 complexity and oceanic
competition:
a. Littoral Complexity. By 2020, over 80% of the worlds
population will live within 100 miles of the sea. At present 147 (over
75%) of member states of the UN, are coastal states. Most of these
states have extended their jurisdiction out to sea, in many cases as far
as 200 nautical miles or more. Most human maritime activity
shipping, fishing, hydrocarbon exploration etc is currently conducted
within a 300-mile zone. This means that a substantial proportion of
the worlds economic and political activity is being conducted in a
narrow strip of land and sea (the littoral) on average no wider than 300
miles. Not only will the littoral be threatened by the consequences of
climate change, it will also face the effects of extreme weather and
other natural events, all of which will have a negative impact on these
heavily populated littoral regions.
12
To guarantee non-complicity in acts that may otherwise contravene international law, any offensive action launched by
a state from another state requires the hosts endorsement this does not apply on the high seas.
13
Those land areas (and their adjacent sea and associated air space) that are predominantly susceptible to
engagement and influence from the sea. JDP 0-10, page 1-6.
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The Problem
b. Oceanic Competition. The high seas, the deep ocean and the
polar regions, as well as the airspace above, will become areas of
increased competition as advanced technology, greater accessibility
and growing resource pressures encourage more intensive
exploitation by states and commercial interests. Competition will
centre on fishing, deep sea mining and the extraction of oil and gas,
and will extend to transportation and rights of passage. Such
competition may, in parallel, give rise to security challenges and will
become a constant sources of environmental and humanitarian
concern about pollution.
106. Future Conflict. A high proportion of future tensions and conflicts will
occur inside, or adjacent to, zones of maritime influence. While the UK is
currently free from the threat of invasion, this is not the case for the
sovereignty of some of the 14 Overseas Territories (of which 12 are islands),
with a combined exclusive economic zone of 2.6 million square miles, the 5th
largest in the world, they could well be subject to territorial claims by other
states. 14 Also, the ever greater number of UK nationals living overseas, 15
together with national interests that continue to be under-pinned by a firm
commitment to human rights, justice and the rule of law, 16 mean that the UK
will remain engaged with the world. Such wide-ranging national interests in
an unstable world that is increasingly susceptible to conflict make the UK
both vulnerable and sensitive to events across the globe. Consequently,
British military power is likely to remain heavily committed to operations
overseas, a significant proportion of which are either in the maritime
environment or may be decisively influenced by maritime forces.
107. Political Objectives. Protecting and promoting the UKs vital
interests, including domestic security, cannot be separated from the security
and stability of the wider international system. 17 The UK will therefore
continue to play an active and engaged role in shaping global change. 18
International problems usually require international solutions, although the
UK will be required to maintain the ability to act independently if necessary.
As the world balance of power shifts to a multi-polar construct with the rise of
powers such as China, India and Brazil, the UK will continue to: maintain its
14
DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme, Future Character of Conflict, pages 7 and 25.
Op. Cit., NSS, estimated at 5.5 million, almost 10% of the population, page 2.5.
16
Ibid., page 0.9.
17
Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: The Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), page 2.10.
18
Op. Cit., NSS page 2.1.
15
1-4
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The Problem
close relationship with the US; rely on NATO; and develop a leading role in
Europe. Working with emerging states, it will also seek to counter global
inter- and intra-state conflict at source. With no shrinkage in strategic ends
a secure and resilient UK, able to shape a stable world19 the maritime
environment will remain critical for British policy.
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The Problem
For a detailed description of simultaneous attrition and its application in modern warfare, see Fleet Tactics and
nd
Coastal Combat 2 Edition, Chapter 2, Captain Wayne P Hughes Junior, US Navy (Retired), US Naval Institute,
Annapolis.
26
Climate change will fundamentally impact on the maritime environment, meaning that meteorological forecasting and
hydrographic data that can only be gained by presence in regions of interest will be crucial for operational success.
1-6
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The Problem
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The Problem
tension, sea denial or monitoring capabilities will allow regimes and states to
oppose access by expeditionary forces or simply to enforce claims to
jurisdiction over Exclusive Economic Zones or resources in international
waters. At all levels, anti-access weapons such as mines, unmanned
systems, swarm tactics and improvised explosive devices may be readily
employed. As well as more widely employable traditional threats, maritime
forces will also need to be ready to deal with emerging threats from: directed
energy weapons, electromagnetic pulse, more sophisticated forms of
electronic warfare, cyber warfare and precision physical attack. Chemical,
biological, radiological and nuclear weapons will continue to pose a threat.
With no safe havens for maritime forces, while operating environments will
remain distinct, they will be increasingly interconnected and interdependent,
meaning that the ability to obtain sea control will increasingly rely on a
substantial level of control of land, air, space and the cyber domain. Going
beyond joint will not be a choice, which is why the Royal Navy must remain
inherently joint in design and in control of the environmental seams. 27
International Engagement
112. Nature. International obligations, as well as national policy, will
continue to require British maritime forces to contribute to the preservation of
international peace and economic growth, and provide a military commitment
to confront actual and emerging crises. Under a UN mandate, the UK may
be required to intervene to support a fragile or failed state. Where the
environment is non-permissive, the main military task will be to create the
security conditions that allow development and governance measures to be
implemented. This may mean that maritime forces are required to deliver
development activities directly. 28
113. Character. Although most security sector reform has hitherto been
land-based, British maritime forces, either independently or as part of a
coalition, will increasingly play a key role in achieving success. This will be
especially important in states where an enduring land-based stabilisation
operation, with mass in the form of UK boots on the ground, risks
destabilising the state further, or in cases where the political will for such a
British commitment is lacking. The use of maritime capabilities to conduct
27
For a detailed description of maritime operations and its need to control the air, sea and land interfaces, see JDP 0-10.
This activity is primarily the remit of non-military organisations, including other government departments, nongovernmental organisations, industry and business.
28
1-8
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The Problem
security sector reform allows a low footprint, high return for the UK despite a
limited footprint. 29 Such an approach can deliver desired political intent with
lower risk of entanglement, especially when mass is not immediately
available or is politically undesirable.
Maritime Security
114. Nature. Increasing global security challenges, such as proliferation of
piracy and resource exploitation, mean that maritime security will remain a
high priority for the UK. The tasks associated with maritime security fall into 2
interrelated categories: Firstly, UK maritime security, which is focused purely
on the UK mainland and overseas territories, and secondly, maritime
protection, which is focused on physical protection and availability of an
internationally recognised maritime infrastructure. While usually separated in
time and space, they will remain, to a significant degree, interdependent and
support the other 2 roles of maritime power. Both will continue to require
inter-agency and international co-operation as well as the exploitation of a
wide range of sources to increase understanding. The attributes of maritime
power 30 mean that maritime assets will continue to play a major role in
support of international and national authorities. Additionally, maritime
security relies on a committed and dependable level of presence, visibility,
assurance and credibility. These are required not only to defend the UK
homeland and sovereign territories at range where necessary but also to
preserve the free and safe use of the high seas. This ability is underpinned
by the enforcement of a rules-based international system at sea, which
protects UK and allied forces in oceanic and littoral areas. This enduring
requirement requires a presence that can only be achieved by a forward
deployed navy, in sufficient numbers, that is ready to deliver strategic effects
on behalf of the UK. 31
29
UK combat forces, primarily based in the southern city of Basra, withdrew from Iraq in July 2009, but, until Aug 2011,
at the request of the Iraqi Government, the Royal Navy has continued to train the Iraqi Navy to defend its territorial
waters and offshore oil infrastructure. http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/DefenceNews/DefencePolicyAndBusiness
/OperationsInIraqFinishWithCompletionOfRoyalNavyTrainingMission. htm accessed November 2011.
30
JDP 0-10, pages 2-1 to 2-7, dated September 2011.
31
For example, the contribution of US and partner forces to relieve the distress caused by the catastrophic Pacific
tsunami of December 2004, reversed the perceptions of America held by many Indonesians. Perhaps no other mission
performed by the Joint Force provides so much benefit to the interests of the United States at so little cost. Joint
Operating Environment Report 2010, US Joint Forces Command, page 33. accessed Jul 11.
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The Problem
The international anti-piracy operation off Somalia is but one example, which sees NATO nations, alongside Japan,
China and Russia, to name but a few, conducting maritime security operations in support of a common aim.
33
Bob Ainsworth MP, writing the forward to, The Tipping Point: British National Strategy and the UKs Future World Role,
by Bernard Jenkin MP and George Grant, www.henryjacksonsociety.org, July 2011.
1-10
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The Problem
34
Greenert J Admiral, Navy, 2025: Forward Warfighters, US Naval Institute Proceedings, dated 18 December 2011,
page 21.
35
Military Task 1: providing strategic intelligence; Military Task 2: providing nuclear deterrence; Military Task 3: defence
of the United Kingdom and overseas territories; Military Task 4: support to the civil emergency organisations in times of
crisis. Interim Defence Strategic Guidance, dated 12 May 11.
36
We will maintain our ability to act alone where we cannot expect others to help. Op. Cit., Securing Britain in an Age
of Uncertainty: The Strategic Defence and Security Review.
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The Problem
b.
c.
For a description of maritime power projection see JDP 0-10, paragraph 231.
http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/spring2009/cost3.html accessed 9 January 2012.
39
As Norman Augustine, an aerospace industry executive, stated in his famous forecast of 1986 in reference to the
soaring prices: In the year 2054, the entire defence budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be
shared by the Air Force and the Navy three and one half days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made
available to the Marines for the extra day. His dire prediction of vanishing aircraft inventories equally applies to ships.
38
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The Problem
119. Quality. For the surface fleet tasked with protecting SLOC and
gaining sea control, set against the future operating environment and
maritime roles, current procurement strategies will fail to deliver a balance in
terms of either quality or quantity. There is no doubt that the current and
future surface combatants will be capable of conducting a wide range of tasks
across the full spectrum of maritime operations. However, these large
combatants will be too few, too costly, too mission essential and most
importantly too vulnerable to be risked in a contested littoral although
without an alternative they will have to be risked with the knowledge that they
will probably take losses. Defence needs to escape its current predicament
of escalating platform and personnel costs causing ever decreasing numbers,
which also lack the quality required to make them fit for task. If this issue is
not tackled, Defence will be unable to fulfil its important peacetime roles of
international engagement and maritime security, while in war it will not have
the quality required to assure access, thereby severely restricting the
expeditionary capability of the British Armed Forces. Quite independent of its
impact on numbers, concentrating capability in large platforms no longer
delivers the necessary capability; quality is not achieved, while quantity is
jeopardised.
120. Quantity. While perceptive, dynamic and motivated people are
critical, a balanced fleet also demands the right number of credible and
capable units of power to deliver the tasks required of maritime forces. The
drive for increased quality demands continued investment in all the
components of fighting power; however, this should not be at the expense of
quantity, which having both a quality and capability all of its own also requires
investment. The changing character of maritime warfare means that the
Royal Navy will most likely find itself operating in a complex, congested
environment involving disparate actors with very short warning and reaction
times. 40 In this environment, UK Armed Forces may lack the political or
military initiative to prevent an opponent striking first with enough firepower to
have a significant strategic impact including sunken ships. In many
regions, the offensive firepower available to potential adversaries is already a
real threat and it is only predicted to get more serious, both in lethality and
proliferation. Attempting to offset this risk with more sophisticated defensive
firepower or more resilient platforms carries obvious risks and escalating
costs. Further, when viewed against technological advances in decision40
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The Problem
41
The Submarine Service 1900-1918, edited by N Lambert Navy Records, Section 2001, pg xxvii.
1-14
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The Problem
SUMMARY
122. The UK needs affordable solutions to deliver a balanced fleet. It
requires the agility to adjust to an uncertain future where it is not known
precisely, who, where and when, it will be required to fight. It only knows that
history has shown that it will be required to fight. Defence, therefore, needs
an intellectual and physical agility that is able to deliver this fleet, fit for task.
If not, the Navy risks slipping into terminal decline unable to protect the UKs
vital interests.
123. Further, after investigating some perennial naval truths the limiting
danger lines Chapter 2 explores the future Black Swan class sloop-of-war
concept. Drawing on the key deductions from this Chapter, it offers a solution
to the problem of maintaining a balanced surface fleet with warfighting at its
core.
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The Problem
1-16
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A Solution
NAVAL TRUTHS
202. The Seat of Purpose is on the Land. For British maritime power, the
real focus of maritime strategy is on what you do once you have control of the
sea; the essence of maritime power is the ability to influence events on
land. 2 This means that while sea control is essential, only the minimum level
of effort, commensurate with the acceptable level of risk, should be employed
in it. The rest of our resources should be used to influence events on land,
both at, and from, the sea. This also requires sea control, of course, which
enables the holder to use maritime power and, if required, denies an
1
2
MOD, Enhancing Strategic Capability Study, Final Report (Revised), 25 August 2011, paragraph 2.2.
Joint Doctrine Publication (JDP) 0-10, British Maritime Doctrine, paragraph 227.
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A Solution
opponent that same ability. At sea, the military, diplomatic and economic
impact will depend upon the opponents dependence upon the maritime
environment for its security and resilience; for many states sea dependency
is growing. On land, the military, diplomatic and economic impact will depend
upon the holders ability to influence its opponent from the sea; this influence
could take a variety of forms from a low-level focused maritime blockade
(such as one focused on components for weapons of mass destruction), to
an invasion of the opponents territory.
203. Technology is Vital, but Doctrine is the glue of tactics and to know
tactics know technology. 3 In naval warfare, technology drives tactics but
concepts and then doctrine decide how that technology should be applied to
deliver the required effect. Shaped by the enduring nature of maritime power,
the size, shape, means of movement and medium in which a maritime asset
moves are only important to the extent that they allow it to cope with the
changing character of maritime warfare. Until it becomes impossible to
exercise sea control, British maritime power will continue to exist and its
influence will be measured by the extent to which the capabilities, rather than
the ships in themselves are able to make that control effective.
204. People Matter Most. People provide the edge and matter most, both
ashore in acquiring the capability and afloat in applying it. This requires the
future navy, to be an educated institution, imbedded with the enduring nature
of maritime power (its history), constructed to meet the challenges of today
and yet with a realisation that this will not be what is required in the future.
205. Change is the Steady State of Navies. The role of the conceptual
component is to ensure that the thinking navy continues to explore new ways
to meet emerging threats and challenges. This is the nature of the maritime
business. It means that if the Royal Navy is right for today, it may not be right
for tomorrow. The role of concepts is to ensure that this gap is never too
large, so that a thinking navy is always able to reconstitute itself and its skills
in time of need. Retaining this ability to bridge the gap requires maritime
assets to be agile enough to adapt to the changing character of maritime
warfare within a relatively short timescale. However, with procurement
3
Hughes W.P Jr, Captain, US Navy (Retired), Fleet Tactics and Coastal Combat 2nd Edition, US Naval Institute,
Annapolis, Maryland, page 174.
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A Solution
timescales stretching into decades, and the life spans of platforms being 30
plus years or more, this adaptability must be found primarily within the people
and systems which operate in, and from, the platform.
206. Evolution Rather than Revolution in Maritime Affairs. As the Royal
Navy is always in contact, its response to technological change has always
demanded an evolution, rather than revolution, in maritime affairs. As one of
the major tasks of the Royal Navy is to exert power and influence in support
of national political objectives with the aim to prevent conflict by deterring,
coercing, stabilising and reassuring others in time of crisis, 4 the audience
needs to believe in that power. It is this interpretation that prevents conflict.
A maritime power, such as the UK, would not wish to risk a revolutionary
change in its means of applying that power being misinterpreted as a marked
reduction in its warfighting capability and/or credibility. Therefore, any
change not only needs to deliver improved capability but also requires a clear
articulation of its credibility in order to support the primary objective of
maritime power: to prevent conflict.
207. Naval Warfare is Attritional. Tactically, at sea, naval warfare centres
on the process of attrition which comes from the successful delivery of
firepower. Therefore, whoever fires first has the advantage, even if
outgunned. The ability to fire first requires superior decision-making (which
depends upon information superiority and effective command and control),
tactical control of the engagement envelope (the ability to find, fix and strike
before the opponent can find you) and a weapon system that works. This
does not mean that the manoeuvrist approach has no place in naval warfare,
but, rather like in air warfare, it means that the first targets need to be those
which have the greatest ability to restrict your freedom of manoeuvre.
Conclusion
208. In the future maritime operating environment, gaining sea control will
require maritime assets with agility (built to adapt), superior decision-making,
tactical control of the engagement envelope at a greater range, and enough
numbers to withstand inevitable losses. In the contested littoral, until sea
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A Solution
control has been assured to an acceptable level of risk it will remain no place
for mission essential units.
A POSSIBLE SOLUTION
209. Introduction. This possible solution only looks at those surface
assets, or units of power 5 which are primarily tasked with achieving sea
control; these assets will form a coherent whole with other maritime platforms
more oriented to exploiting sea control. The solution is not about more
corvettes and fewer frigates. Neither is it simplistically about a high/low mix
or quantity versus quality, although it offers all of these. Rather, it is about the
perpetual problem of keeping pace with the changing character of maritime
warfare in order to ensure that the Royal Navy is fit for task now and in the
future.
210. Systems Not Platforms. Much as torpedoes, submarines and aircraft
changed the face of maritime warfare in the last century, unmanned systems
will do the same in the 21st Century. In the future, unmanned systems could
help to provide a solution to maintaining a balanced fleet by matching the
required capability to future threats, available resources and mandated tasks.
This future concept would concentrate investment in systems, rather than the
ship, and a change in emphasis to one that does not see the ship as the
fighting platform. This concept has no place within the current rigid force
structures, which tends to see capability largely in terms of platforms.
Instead, capability would be delivered by deployed systems from multiple
sloops-of-war, much as they did extremely successfully in World War II. At
less cost and less risk it only takes one torpedo to sink a ship 4 or more
of the future sloops-of-war deployed systems, when combined, would deliver
more capability than a single, large mission-essential multi-role platform.
The Ship
211. The future sloop-of-war will be more akin to an aircraft carrier, or an
amphibious ship (albeit on a much smaller and less sophisticated scale),
providing command, hotel services, maintenance facilities and a taxi service
5
This would include frigates, destroyers, mine countermeasures vessels, hydrographic and oceanographic vessels, and
patrol vessels.
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A Solution
http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/Operations/Enduring-Operations/Caribbean-Patrol.
Able to make decisions and act on them as a free and independent moral agent The Concise Oxford Dictionary, 11th
Edition.
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A Solution
The White Ensign or St George's Ensign is an ensign flown on Royal Navy ships. It consists of a red St George's Cross on a white
field with the Union Flag in the upper canton.
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A Solution
Ship (Continued)
Endurance: unsupported 90 days (crew), min 30 days (fuel).
Performance: globally deployable, able to operate both in the marginal ice
zone and in hot and humid conditions with minimum survivability
characteristics. The unmanned systems, rather than the ship, should be
capable of operating in areas of denied access.
Crew: a core crew of around 8 9 with accommodation for those additional
personnel required for each module, plus basic dormitory style
accommodation for a further 60.
Cyber: secure from cyber attack.
Internal Weapon Systems
Sensors: basic sensors to support navigational safety standards and selfprotection weapon systems.
Weapons: a visible deterrent in the form of a gun; self-protection weapon
systems such as small arms, directed energy weapons, lasers etc.
Mission Bay/Hangar: a mission bay to act as a hanger/repair facility for
unmanned systems 10 (able to accommodate at least one medium and one
small rotary wing unmanned air system).
Flight Deck: large enough to accommodate a Chinook-sized helicopter, with
personnel access to rear ramp.
Mission Planning Room: a mission planning space for up to 30 people to
plan and execute missions.
Communications: basic communications facilities supplemented by
essential unmanned systems mission support architecture; the major
capability will be invested in the external systems.
OF4/OF3 commanding officer depending on ships role. 8 is the minimum number required to operate the vessel at
sea, but it will demand a change to current practices. For example, machinery spaces will need to be remotely monitored
and the crew will have to do without chefs and stewards; although perhaps sous vide cooking, as demonstrated by
Heston Blumenthal on HMS TURBULENT. http://www.mirror.co.uk/celebs/news/2011/03/20/heston-blumenthal-sslow-food-going-on-forces-menu-115875-23002217/
10
This is a generic term for all unmanned systems regardless of their environment.
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A Solution
11
This may be as a coordinator operating UXSs, including those from other platforms, or just a mission planner, with
UXS having mission command.
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Pros (Continued)
Resilience of capabilities there is no single point of failure; instead
capabilities are delivered by a greater number of assets.
This concept is a necessary counter to the philosophy that even if it means
fewer platforms, bigger is better.
It is at the crest of a wave of challenging the previous orthodoxy.
Will prevent the Royal Navy from going into terminal decline, unable to protect
the UKs vital interests.
Cons
The concept is untested as navies are always in contact and rely on
credibility and capability to deter, any change needs to be evolutionary rather
than revolutionary.
It goes against the universal tendency, both from allies and potential
adversaries, to procure fewer, but bigger platforms.
Previous attempts to re-adjust the balance have failed due to an overriding
conservatism that sees bigger, and hence more expensive, as better.
Implementing the concept will require challenging ingrained thinking.
Loss of versatility offset by increased presence and the ability to switch
between roles?
Loss of resilience in the ship true, but the investment will be in protecting
the crew rather than the ship.
Risk of the uneducated still seeing the ship as the capability and therefore
constraining the Naval Plan to platform numbers rather than capability.
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A Solution
SUMMARY
215. With naval truths providing the safe water and doctrine the pilot, this
concept offers the surface fleet an operational capability that is agile enough
to adapt to the changing character of maritime power. While acknowledging
that this is an initial analysis for how the Royal Navy, within financial
constraints, can maintain a balanced surface fleet with war-fighting at its core,
overall the benefits far outweigh the risks. The need for a graduated change
means that mine countermeasure, hydrographic and patrol ships should be
the first capabilities to be replaced by the future Black Swan class sloop-ofwar, followed by frigates and destroyers. The requirement for a greater
number of surface ships when warfighting will also have the added advantage
of allowing the current gaps in maritime security and international
engagement to be filled.
216. Having explored the problem and proposed a possible solution,
Chapter 3 takes an unclassified look at the future of unmanned systems
before providing a detailed description of the future Black Swan class sloopof-war. This description is expanded to discuss its roles, tasks and possible
systems that will operate off, and from, the platform.
2-10
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The Future
UNMANNED SYSTEMS 2
Background
302. Unmanned systems already play a central role in modern warfare, and
there is a real possibility that, after many false starts and broken promises, a
technological tipping point is approaching that may well deliver a genuine
revolution in military affairs. 3 This belief was reflected in the recent 2010
Strategic Defence and Security Review which stated that one of its principles
was to invest in programmes that will provide flexibility and advanced
capabilities, and reduce legacy capabilities which we are less likely to need in
a world of precision weaponry, and where the battlespace increasingly
1
Niccol Machiavelli, The Prince and The Discourses, The Modern Library, Random House, Inc., 1950, page 21.
Unmanned Systems (UXS) include air (UAS), ground (UGS), maritime surface (USS) and subsurface (UUS) systems,
and are defined as: a system whose components include the unmanned platform and all equipment, network and
personnel necessary to control the unmanned platform. Joint Doctrine Note (JDN) 2/11, The UK Approach to
Unmanned Aircraft Systems.
3
Ibid., page iii.
2
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The Future
Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: The Strategic Defence and Security Review 2010, page 17.
A UK MOD roadmap for unmanned air systems was produced in 2005.
6
DCDC, Future Maritime Operational Concept 2007, dated 13 November 2007, page 1-15.
7
JDN 2/11, page 5-11.
5
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FY20092034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, USA DoD, dated 6 April 2009, page 27.
Ibid., page 28.
10
3-4
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11
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The Future
Technologies such as carbon nanotube networks may provide an attractive alternative for unmanned underwater
systems.
13
FY20092034 Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, USA DoD, dated 6 April 2009, page 33.
3-6
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The Future
THE SLOOP-OF-WAR
Hull Configuration
309. Recent work in the UK on future warship design concluded that a
conventional monohull configuration was the most cost effective solution,
especially (like the sloop-of-war) if high speed was not a requirement.
Additionally, as the ship is a more akin to a lean-manned mother ship,
providing mission planning and garage services for a range of unmanned and
manned systems, it is well suited to this type of construct. Recently, the
same conclusion was reached for a number of coastguard vessels whose
monohull design is characterised by a short, high forecastle and forward
superstructure, with a long, low cargo/working deck aft. The Norwegian
Coastguard Vessel at Figure 3.4 is a good example.
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The Future
Chinock capable
flight deck
Directed
energy
weapon
30mm gun
Sail/kite stowage
Crane
Open
quarterdeck
Stern
ramp
3-8
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The Future
311. The ship design has been created using a ship sizing tool that enables
a balanced design to be rapidly derived and linked to a cost model. Once the
model has been set up, cost capability trades can be readily accomplished to
assess the implications of design changes.
Main Dimensions
Tank capacities
Length overall
95.00m
Fuel oil
390 tonnes
Length (WL)
90m
Fresh water
24 tonnes
Breadth (WL)
15.50m
94 tonnes
Depth moulded
11.60m
Draft
4m
Speed and Range
Top speed
18 knots
Range
10,000nm at 12
knots
Deadweight and Draught
Main Machinery
Generators
2 x Wartsila 8L201
1 x Wartsila 12V26
Propulsion motors
2 x 2MW electric
motors
Weapons (Fixed)
Deep Displacement
3150 tonnes
1 x 30mm gun
Total mission
payload
400 tonnes
2 x GPMG2 x miniguns
Helicopter
Accommodation
Flight deck
Basic complement
of 8 plus 32 mission
planners
40 (HMS ASTUTE
standard) inside the
CBRN citadel
Hangar
Merlin + 1 rotary
wing UAV
ISO container
accommodation for
14
at least 20
In mission bay
14
This accommodation could be used for a number of maritime security and international engagement tasks where
greater numbers of crew are required, or to accommodate trainees during routine operations.
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The Future
312. Payload Capacity and Adaptability. The large hangar and mission
bay provides a total of 970m2 of deck area and 400 tonnes payload. This is
similar to that achieved in the US Navy Littoral Combat Ship. 15
313. Hangar and Flight Deck. A 370m2 hangar is provided, sufficient to
accommodate a medium-sized helicopter, such as a Merlin and a light rotarywing manned, or unmanned, aircraft. The flight deck is large enough to
accommodate a Chinook-sized helicopter with access to its rear ramp via the
stern of the ship.
The Littoral Combat Ship is a fast, agile, focused-mission platform designed for operation in near-shore environments
yet capable of open-ocean operation. It is designed to defeat asymmetric anti-access threats such as mines, quiet
diesel submarines and fast surface craft. http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=4200&tid=1650&ct=4
16
A 20 foot ISO container equals one Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit (TEU).
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The Future
of the payload will depend upon the ships role, it is only by enforcing a
recognised standard that the ship will be flexible enough to keep up with
rapidly changing technologies. An open working deck area has been
provided at the aft end of the mission bay, with the addition of a 25-tonne
crane to enable modules to be loaded, and unloaded, without shore
assistance. Two TEU locations are provided at the transom for systems that
require direct access over the stern, such as towed array modules, or
unmanned surface, or sub-surface deployment systems. A universal stern
ramp is fitted on the centreline, capable of recovering manned and
unmanned surface and sub-surface platforms with the minimum manning
requirement. In addition, the ramp will also enable rapid refuelling, a feature
that is also planned for the US Navy Littoral Combat Ship.
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The Future
to 18 knots to align with the transit speed of a maritime task force. This
equates to an installed propulsion power requirement of 4 mega watts, as
compared with a requirement for around 20 mega watts for 25 knots.17 The
operating profile is anticipated to include transit to the theatre of operations,
generally at the most economical speed of 12 knots, before conducting low
speed/loitering operations in the theatre of operation. This operating profile,
biased towards low speed operation, will significantly reduce annual fuel burn
by the ship. Further work, taking into account likely consumption by off-board
assets in a number of scenarios, would be required to quantify the overall
savings achievable through this concept of operation.
316. Fuel. The main fuel tanks have been sized to give 10,000 nm range
at 12 knots. An additional 94 tonnes of fuel has been allocated for off-board
systems (although fuel requirements will depend upon the sloops mission). It
is hoped that by the time this ship enters service, a common fuel policy will
have been adopted thereby, allowing greater flexibility between the ships
range and that of its off-board systems.
317. Propulsion Machinery. A low voltage electric propulsion
arrangement has been selected in order to enable efficient operation at low
speeds as well as to minimise overall installed power by allowing propulsion
power to be traded for weapons systems demand. The cost of fossil fuels is
forecast to increase significantly over the next few decades. A number of
alternative energy sources are being considered for shipping. At this point
the most promising involves directly harnessing the power of wind-utilising
sails or kites. Recent trials on commercial ships have shown that significant
fuel savings are achievable in this way. Other energy harvesting
technologies, such as photovoltaic paint and collapsible wind turbines,
although likely to be less effective overall, should also be considered.
318. Accommodation. Accommodation standards on Royal Navy vessels
reached a peak in the Type 45 Destroyer. The resulting increase in volume
demand on the ship can become a significant driver in both its size and cost.
This has been recognised. Future programmes are looking at reducing
accommodation standards. For this ship, the crew accommodation standard
has been based upon HMS Astute, which results in the commanding officer
17
The vessel size would need to increase by around 500 tonnes to accommodate the machinery required to achieve the
higher speed, increasing cost by around 15M.
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The Future
having his cabin reduced from the 41m2 on a Type 23 Frigate, to a 5m2 cabin
and ratings in 3-tier bunk spaces. The same philosophy has been applied to
all the accommodation spaces.
319. Combat System. With the need to keep costs down while maximising
flexibility, the ship has been fitted with a minimal common core combat
system. This includes a local area network, reconfigurable computer
workstations and open architecture software, similar to that adopted in the
Littoral Combat Ship and the Danish StanFlex system. 18 For the ships safety,
a medium range 3D radar has been fitted. The rest of the baseline sensor fit
has been minimised with a view to customised upgrades for the required role
being delivered though modular fits, or distributed sensors on unmanned
systems. The sloops will require information systems to allow them to
integrate into a UK or coalition task force.
320. Fixed Weapon Systems. These are confined to the minimum
required for self-defence and offer a limited anti-surface and anti-air
capability. Additional weapon systems could be carried in the mission bay,
hangar or upper deck module positions. The ship will be able to re-role
independently using a logistic supply system involving ISO-containerised
mission modules and onboard cranage.
321. Survivability. With resilience stemming from numbers, and the intent
to keep the host platform outside the tactical weapon envelope of potential
adversaries, cost has been reduced through adopting commercial standards
where possible. If the risk to the platform from enemy action is low, then
adopting commercial International Maritime Organisation conventions on
subdivision and damage stability is a feasible option. For a combatant,
adopting The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea 19 to define
the safety limit would not be appropriate, unless the military value of the
asset is equitable with the value and availability of a merchant ship. 20 This
fits well with a philosophy of survivability through platform numbers. The
18
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The Future
21
3-14
The Future
Counter-piracy
or counter-drugs
Mine Hunting
22
Officer ranks are: OF2 Lieutenant, OF3 Lieutenant Commander, OF4 Commander and OF5 Captain.
The Royal Singapore Navy successfully deployed Protector, a unmanned surface vessel, fitted with a camera,
loudhailer and mini Typhoon weapon in a force protection role in the Gulf in 2005
http://www.mindef.gov.sg/imindef/publications/cyberpioneer/3g_saf/2005/features/may05_cs.html
23
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The Future
Sea Control
(Contined)
24
Atlas engineering already offers a containerised system for streaming towed array sonar over the transom.
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The Future
3-18