From Maliki To Abadi: The Challenge of Being Iraq's Prime Minister
From Maliki To Abadi: The Challenge of Being Iraq's Prime Minister
June 2016
No. 100
This Brief reviews Abadis premiership so far and seeks to answer the following
questions: How much has Abadis governance differed fromor resembled
Malikis? And has the transition from Maliki to Abadi led to any significant
change in Iraqs political dynamics? The Brief argues that, despite improvements
in his style of governing, Abadi could not make a significant alteration
regarding major political issues, especially those pertaining to relations with
the Kurish and the Sunni groups, constitutional reforms and political and
security arrangements in the war against ISIS. The necessary conclusion is that
Iraqs main problems are systemic and related to the way the whole political
system is structured. A Shia prime minister like Abadi needs to command a
broad constituency that is loyal to and supportive of him in order to make the
concessions and compromises that a new political compact would require.
Abadi, although armed with good intentions and the desire to make a difference,
lacks such a constituency and, as a result, has not been able to make those
changes.
The Kurds
Relations with the Kurds have continued to be
problematic since Malikis second term and seem headed
in the direction of more tension. Baghdad and Erbil, the
capital of Kurdistan, disagreed on the share of the Iraqi
budget and on how to manage Iraqs and Kurdistans
oil resources. The KRG has been complaining since the
rise of tension with Malikis government, particularly
during his second term (2010-2014), that it has not been
receiving the stipulated 17 percent of the federal budget,
including expenditures on the regions security forces,
the Peshmerga.10 This percentage was established by the
interim government of Ayad Allawi and was meant to
reflect the population of areas under the KRG, although
many Arab politicians questioned the accuracy of this
percentage, given that Iraq had not conducted a reliable
census since 1987 and that a considerable number of Kurds
live outside such areas controlled by the KRG, including
Kirkuk and Diyala. For its part, Baghdad protested against
the contracts that the KRG had unilaterally signed with
international oil companies (IOCs) to invest in its oil
fields and export production without the approval of
the federal government. The two sides offered different
interpretations of the constitutional provisions addressing
the management and exportation of oil and whether that
was an exclusive authority of the federal government or
one shared withor that could be unilaterally assumed
bythe region.11
Abadi and his minister of oil, Adil Abd al-Mahdi, tried
to negotiate a new deal to resolve those disputes with
the KRG. In November 2014, the two sides reached a
temporary agreement, albeit one that could not stand for
a long time, especially once oil prices plummeted and the
two sides started to look for ways to compensate for their
shrinking resources. Currently, there is no functional
arrangement governing relations between Baghdad and
Erbil.
Sunni Arabs
Another important issue that Abadi failed to resolve was
relations with Sunni Arabs. Abadi was aware that his
predecessor had been repeatedly accused of pursuing
exclusivist sectarian policies, and he tried to avoid
such accusations. Indeed, the political agreement that
established the government made it a requirement to pass
new laws and measures to address sectarian tensions.
For example, the National Guards law was suggested as
a mechanism whereby security apparatuses would be
decentralized and local Sunni fighters motivated to secure
their areas by giving them governmental guarantees and
adding them to a sustainable formal payroll system.
Abadi could not get major parties to agree on a single
version of this law, however. Most Shia parties, including
his own SOL, were suspicious that the law would end
up creating a Sunni military force that would be paid by
the government but whose loyalty would lie somewhere
else. Accordingly, those parties proposed formalizing
the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs), which were
predominantly irregular Shia forces, and integrating Sunni
fighters into its formations. Pressure from the Shia alliance
forced Abadi to go with this option.
Initially, Maliki attempted to use his leverage within
powerful groups in the PMFs, such as Badr and AAH, to
weaken Abadis authority. Before leaving office, he issued
a decree turning the PMFs into a formal body organized
and funded by the state. Confronting that reality and in
order not to antagonize the PMFs, Abadi instructed his
ministers to deal with the PMFs as an official body under
his authority as commander in chief.14
Conclusions
Abadis experience as Iraqs prime minister teaches us an
important lesson: Changing the prime minister without
changing the paradigm of and formula for governance in
Iraq has not yielded significant results. The ethno-sectarian
paradigm now prevailing in Iraq will keep limiting the
prime ministers room for maneuver, while depriving him
of the leverage necessary to initiate major reforms. The
prime ministers political effectiveness depends on his
ability to create a consensus around his policies, or else to
impose his own options if a consensus cannot be achieved.
This is why both Maliki and Abadi sought ways to build
autonomous political constituencies. Maliki did this by
exploiting sectarianism and patronage to consolidate his
support base within his Shia community, which in the
end further polarized Iraqi politics and made it difficult to
bridge the gap between communities.
He became the most powerful and popular Shia politician, but the price was losing credibility among Sunnis and Kurds,
while alarming his Shia rivals. Abadi tried to create a constituency by trying to be a reformer. The April 30 protesters
focused their criticism on muhassessa: power-sharing agreements that made state institutions resemble the fiefdoms
of powerful parties. Abadi hoped that the pressure from the street might ease the parties grip over ministries and
governmental bodies, which in turn could help him pursue his agenda more smoothly. Lacking a parliamentary bloc that
supported him, however, Abadi relied on that pressure, and on extra-constitutional forces, such as the Shia religious
authority and Sadrs movement, to compel parties to accept reforms that limited their powers. This put him in the
awkward position of needing the support of the very forces that he sought to undermine. The outcome was contradictory
policies, and choices that lacked clarity and decisiveness.
What Abadi wanted was to be a more effective prime minister, but the means of achieving this became as problematic
as those adopted by his predecessor. As the country faces the difficult economic challenge resulting from the decline in
oil prices, along with a fierce and costly war against ISIS, Abadis indecisiveness and lack of leverage could cost him his
office, or at least keep him as an ineffectual leader waiting to be replaced after the next election. In the end, the prime
minister has managed neither to assert his image as a reformer, nor to keep the support of major political groups, which
he needs to facilitate his effective performance. Additionally, the storming of Parliament by Sadrist protesters left Abadi
in the awkward position of not deciding where to stand. In the increasingly polarized Iraqi political climate, Abadi,
indecisive and lacking the tools to implement solutions to Iraqs problems, might be the next victim of the countrys
dysfunctional system.
Endnotes
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Loveday Morris and Mustafa Salim. Iraqi Security Forces Use Live Fire to Break up Protests in Green Zone, Washington Post,
May 20,2016.
Nouri al-Maliki Forced from Post as Iraqs Political Turmoil Deepens, The Guardian, August 12, 2014.
Jay Solomon and Carol E. Lee, U.S. Signals Iraqs Maliki Should Go, Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2014.
On June 25, 2014, members of the Dawa leadership wrote a letter to Sistani asking his advice regarding the negotiations to form
a new government. Sistani replied in very explicit terms, reflecting his status: I believe it is necessary to choose a new prime
minister who has broad national acceptance and can work with political leaders of other Iraqi communities to save the country
from the dangers of terrorism, sectarian war and partition. Details are published on Sistanis website [in Arabic] (accessed on
March 30, 2016).
For further details, see Ahmed Ali, Iraqs Prime Minister Reshuffles the Security Commanders, Institute for the Study of War,
November 13, 2014, and David D. Kirkpatrick, In Shake-Up, Iraqi Premier Replaces 36 Commanders, New York Times, November
12, 2014.
The General Secretary of Council of Ministers, The By-law of the Council of Ministers (accessed on April 4, 2016).
Buratha News Agency, The Amendments on the Governorates Law, [in Arabic] (accessed on April 4, 2016).
Prime Minister Office, the First Reforms Package Presented by the Prime Minister to the Exceptional Session of the Council of
Ministers, [in Arabic] (accessed on April 4, 2016).
The Text of the Political agreement between Political Blocks Participating in the Government, Iraq Press, (accessed on March
30, 2016) [in Arabic].
Kurdistan Government Blasts Baghdad Over Budget Freeze, Rudaw, March 3, 2014 (accessed by June 9, 2016).
Ben Holland, Are Kurdistans Oil Contracts Constitutional? (Energy in the Middle East, 2012) (accessed on March 30, 2016).
Denise Natali, How Independent Is the Iraqi-Kurdish Pipeline to Turkey? Almonitor, November 4, 2013, and Ed Butler, Iraqi
Kurdistans Battle with Baghdad over Oil Revenues, BBC News, April 10, 2015.
Authors meeting at the Atlantic Councils Future of Iraq Task Force, Iraq, March 2016.
AIN News, The Cabinet Links PMFs to Abadis Office, [in Arabic] (accessed on March 30, 2016).
Authors meeting with Iraqi senior officials at the Atlantic Councils Future of Iraq Task Force, Baghdad, March 2016.
Authors meeting with Sunni officials and activists at the Atlantic Councils Future of Iraq Task Force, Baghdad, March 2016.
Toby Dodge, Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2012).
In a conversation with the author, Baghdad, March 2016.
Authors meeting at the Atlantic Councils Future of Iraq Task Force, March 2016.
Iraq Press Agency, Iraq Press Publishes the Package of reforms voted on by Parliament (accessed on March 30, 2016).
Parliament Votes to Support Abadis Reforms, Al-Mashriq, November 2, 2015.
Zalmay Khalilzad, Haider al-Abadis Dangerous Gamble, New York Times, April 12, 2016.
Iraqi Shia Protesters Storm Baghdad Parliament, BBC News (accessed on April 30, 2016).
*Weblinks are available in the online version at
www.brandeis.edu/crown