TASTER Value Betting Course: Under / Over X Goals
TASTER Value Betting Course: Under / Over X Goals
Now you can, with Soccerwidow's comprehensive betting course, a unique 69-page tutorial compiled by
professional statisticians describing how to calculate percentages, probabilities and odds to identify the 'value'
of odds offered by bookmakers and/or betting exchanges enabling you to find a mathematical edge: In other
words, 'sharp betting'. The example used is the under/over 'X' goals market in the German Bundesliga, but the
methods of analysis are easily transferrable to any bet type, in any sport.
So, say the true (zero) odds for any given Bayern Munich home game under 4.5 goals are 1.31 and the
market odds for the next match are showing a price of 1.23. Financially speaking, should this be a back bet or
a lay? What is the probability that this bet will win? How much value does this bet contain? What is the
potential income of this investment in the long-term?
If you can answer the above questions off the top of your head then this course is probably too basic for you,
but if you are already confused and perhaps also count yourself in the group of people who lose more money
than they win, then this course is for you. It will help you to understand odds calculation and how to gain the
mathematical edge when betting. Betting for long-term profit then becomes nothing more than a numbers
game.
The course contains a statistical-mathematical tool developed from financial shares analysis and explains not
only odds calculation, but also gives you a broader understanding of how market odds are compiled and
different angles on looking for that golden mathematical advantage. The reader will learn in detail how to
analyse a betting market and gain confidence to ultimately develop his/her own successful betting strategy.
At the end of the course, betting tables are presented for the nine German Bundesliga 1 teams playing in the
2011-2012 competition, who have also played in the previous five seasons. These will allow accurate
evaluations of the entire over/under X goals market for 76.5% of all Bundesliga 1 games throughout 20112012. The reader will then learn how to incorporate the results from 2011-2012 into fresh tables for the 20122013 season, and so on. In this fashion, the course is timeless.
Why use the Bundesliga 1 as an example?
The Bundesliga 1 displays almost unfaltering consistency in its goals events, year after year. For this reason, it
is a hugely attractive league for investors and gamblers alike.
As always from Soccerwidow, the course provides sound mathematical advice and many people have already
purchased this course, with only positive feedback received. We are sure that it will be an invaluable addition
to the knowledge base of any bettor, enhancing the users chances of succeeding knowing exactly what the
mathematical ingredients are for making regular profits from betting.
Buy now with the confidence of knowing that full support is available from the Soccerwidow team should
anything in the course require further explanation.
Thanks for your time and as always, good luck!
Soccerwidow
03/2012
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Odds compilation, probabilities and statistics has much to do with simple counting and the first table below
shows the frequency of goal events in the Bundesliga over the last five years. For example, in 2006-07 there
were 68 matches with exactly 3 goals, et cetera:
I strongly recommend the reader acquires a full understanding of this table until the ability to reconstruct it
becomes second-nature. With many of the exercises contained in this article, the length of time they will take to
master and the level of knowledge gained from them will depend upon combined Excel and mathematical skills.
This first table compilation task would perhaps take an Excel expert up to two hours to perform.
Practice 1:
Download the historical data from www.football-data.co.uk (blue links to each season in the middle of the page)
and using Excel count the number of total goal events per season (2006-07 to 2010-11) in order to replicate
Table 1 above.
Soccerwidow.com isnt affiliated in any way to Football-data.co.uk but it is an invaluable resource site.
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The above graph clearly shows that the results in the Bundesliga are very formulaic due to the fact that the
curves for each year nearly all follow the same path. This is far too improbable to be a coincidence and the
results should surely be capable of being harnessed and exploited by a formula.
I shall not touch on the subject of formulae here as the topic is way outside the realms of this course but suffice
to say the graph clearly shows it is possible to perform accurate statistical prognoses to provide clear and
reliable trends, which is good news for investors and gamblers alike.
Despite seeing graphs like this on a regular basis for a whole multitude of different football betting events in
various European leagues, it never ceases to amaze me how many times the curves follow a similar, regular
pattern.
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