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VE Weekly 120803
VE Weekly 120803
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MARKET OVERVIEW
Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500
started week
13075.35 2959.07 796.37 1385.94
Thursday Close
12878.9 2909.77 768.6 1365
4 day change
-196.45 -49.3 -27.77 -20.94
4 day change %
-1.50% -1.67% -3.49% -1.51%
ytd
5.41% 11.69% 3.74% 8.54%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities
Change
-0.10% -1.78% -0.79% -0.59% -0.75% 0.34% -1.04% -0.47% -0.38% -0.59% -0.45% -0.62% -1.02% -0.18% -0.02% -0.83%
MTD
-1.09% -3.76% -1.81% -2.44% -1.72% -0.94% -2.19% -0.40% -1.06% -1.82% -1.24% -1.11% -1.27% -1.41% -1.47% -1.23%
YTD
-0.71% -3.53% -6.71% 2.37% 1.40% 80.16% 9.30% 8.10% 13.70% -1.69% 11.87% 6.38% -10.73% 9.24% 6.64% -0.16%
Valuation
1.53% undervalued 20.17% undervalued 16.64% undervalued 6.73% undervalued 2.22% undervalued 11.59% undervalued 9.96% undervalued 9.02% overvalued 2.42% overvalued 7.44% undervalued 4.24% overvalued 2.08% undervalued 11.69% undervalued 2.98% overvalued 4.34% undervalued 10.83% overvalued
P/E Ratio
30.64 16.8 23.5 23.42 38.97 54.47 28.07 18.95 23.15 25.69 38.08 15.55 31.03 28.82 22.53 18.79
Sector TalkOils/Energy
Below, we present the latest data on leading Oils-Energy Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Name
STATOIL ASA-ADR ECOPETROL- ADR TESORO CORP VALERO ENERGY WESTERN REFING
Mkt Price
23.66 58.43 31.79 27.3 24.04
Valuation(%)
-18.84 -3.07 -8.38 -14.24 -6.13
Name
GAZPROM OAO-ADR STATOIL ASA-ADR BP PLC TOTAL FINA SA YPF SA D CV ADR
Mkt Price
9.03 23.66 39.95 45.68 11.26
Valuation(%)
3.01 -18.84 -23.04 -27.72 -67.34
Name
STATOIL ASA-ADR VALERO ENERGY TOTAL FINA SA BP PLC TESORO CORP
Mkt Price
23.66 27.3 45.68 39.95 31.79
Valuation(%)
-18.84 -14.24 -27.72 -23.04 -8.38
Name
VAALCO ENERGY FX ENERGY INC CRIMSON EXPLOR EQUAL ENERGY INTEROIL CORP
Mkt Price
7.08 6.6 4.26 3.15 87.82
Valuation(%)
300 300 166.17 112.59 49.92
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For reference, here is a longer-term chart which tracks the metrics back to March, 2010. Note that undervaluation levels peaked in excess of 90% last Summer.
And finally, here is the chart tracking the levels back to March, 2007. As you can see, elevated undervaluation levels can persist for long periods of time.
We will continue to watch and track our valuation metrics so that we may add to our data set.
Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to [email protected] Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.478) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 1.681 and 1.853 with daily and monthly pivots at 1.507 and 1.468, and semiannual risky level at 1.389. The 50-day simple moving average was tested at 1.566 on Thursday. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1590.5) Annual, weekly and monthly value levels are $1575.8, $1574.3 and $1525.3 with daily, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1632.6, $1643.3, $1702.5 and $1805.8. Below is my second annual risky level at $1388.4. The weekly chart stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at $1601.5. Nymex Crude Oil ($87.34) My semiannual value level is $76.71 with daily and weekly pivots at $88.96 and $89.21 and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at $90.40, $103.58 and $107.63. The weekly chart stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at $88.49. The Euro (1.2182) Daily and monthly pivots are 1.2299 and 1.2237 with weekly risky level at 1.2388. My semiannual value level is 1.1078 with a semiannual risky level at 1.2917. The weekly chart for the euro remains oversold with the five-week modified moving average at 1.2433. Major Indices Daily Dow: (12,879) Annual and semiannual value levels are 12,312 and 10,738 with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 13,072, 13,518 and 13,625. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 12,816.
S&P 500 (1365.0) My annual pivot at 1363.2 with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1381.1, 1435.7 and 1458.2. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the fiveweek modified moving average at 1357.5. NASDAQ (2910) Annual and semiannual value levels are 2698 and 2527 with daily, weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 2931, 3085, 3194 and 3232. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 2920. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2626) Annual and semiannual value levels are 2603, 2300 and 2239 with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 2637, 2750 and 2877. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 2607. Dow Transports (4984) I show no nearby value levels with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 5027, 5346 and 5373. The weekly chart profile needs a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 5128 to be positive - otherwise this chart could be negative. The Dow Transports is back below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 5079 and 5091. Russell 2000 (768.60) I show no nearby value levels with daily, annual, weekly and monthly risky levels at 776.00, 836.15, 841.66 and 846.16. The weekly chart profile stays positive this week on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 790.79 otherwise this chart could be negative. The SOX (381.48) I show no nearby value levels with daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 393.51, 397.61, 420.20 and 450.28. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 376.32.