VE Weekly 120803

August 3, 2012
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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!
MARKET OVERVIEW
Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500
started week
13075.35 2959.07 796.37 1385.94
Thursday Close
12878.9 2909.77 768.6 1365
4 day change
-196.45 -49.3 -27.77 -20.94
4 day change %
-1.50% -1.67% -3.49% -1.51%
ytd
5.41% 11.69% 3.74% 8.54%
Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 72.52% 27.48% 38.81% 10.00%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities
Change
-0.10% -1.78% -0.79% -0.59% -0.75% 0.34% -1.04% -0.47% -0.38% -0.59% -0.45% -0.62% -1.02% -0.18% -0.02% -0.83%
MTD
-1.09% -3.76% -1.81% -2.44% -1.72% -0.94% -2.19% -0.40% -1.06% -1.82% -1.24% -1.11% -1.27% -1.41% -1.47% -1.23%
YTD
-0.71% -3.53% -6.71% 2.37% 1.40% 80.16% 9.30% 8.10% 13.70% -1.69% 11.87% 6.38% -10.73% 9.24% 6.64% -0.16%
Valuation
1.53% undervalued 20.17% undervalued 16.64% undervalued 6.73% undervalued 2.22% undervalued 11.59% undervalued 9.96% undervalued 9.02% overvalued 2.42% overvalued 7.44% undervalued 4.24% overvalued 2.08% undervalued 11.69% undervalued 2.98% overvalued 4.34% undervalued 10.83% overvalued
Last 12-M Return

-12.38% -18.58% -37.15% -5.28% -11.78% 3.54% -6.82% -5.69% 0.77% -14.56% -8.34% -5.21% -26.36% 3.97% -13.41% -2.37%
P/E Ratio
30.64 16.8 23.5 23.42 38.97 54.47 28.07 18.95 23.15 25.69 38.08 15.55 31.03 28.82 22.53 18.79
Sector TalkOils/Energy
Below, we present the latest data on leading Oils-Energy Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Top-Five Oils-Energy Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
STO EC TSO VLO WNR
Name
STATOIL ASA-ADR ECOPETROL- ADR TESORO CORP VALERO ENERGY WESTERN REFING
Mkt Price
23.66 58.43 31.79 27.3 24.04
Valuation(%)
-18.84 -3.07 -8.38 -14.24 -6.13
Last 12-M Retn(%)

3.64 49.48 36.03 18.39 20.99
Top-Five Oils-Energy Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
OGZPY STO BP TOT YPF
Name
GAZPROM OAO-ADR STATOIL ASA-ADR BP PLC TOTAL FINA SA YPF SA D CV ADR
Mkt Price
9.03 23.66 39.95 45.68 11.26
Valuation(%)
3.01 -18.84 -23.04 -27.72 -67.34
Last 12-M Retn(%)

-48.31 3.64 -4.47 -6.76 -71.69
Top-Five Oils-Energy Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
STO VLO TOT BP TSO
Name
STATOIL ASA-ADR VALERO ENERGY TOTAL FINA SA BP PLC TESORO CORP
Mkt Price
23.66 27.3 45.68 39.95 31.79
Valuation(%)
-18.84 -14.24 -27.72 -23.04 -8.38
Last 12-M Retn(%)

3.64 18.39 -6.76 -4.47 36.03
Top-Five Oils-Energy Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
EGY FXEN CXPO EQU IOC
Name
VAALCO ENERGY FX ENERGY INC CRIMSON EXPLOR EQUAL ENERGY INTEROIL CORP
Mkt Price
7.08 6.6 4.26 3.15 87.82
Valuation(%)
300 300 166.17 112.59 49.92
Last 12-M Retn(%)

13.28 -28.1 37.42 -49.11 42.33
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Free Report Download for Subscribers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.
This week's free download is our report on Apple (AAPL).Apple Computer, Inc. designs, manufactures and markets personal computers and related personal computing and communicating solutions for sale primarily to education, creative, consumer, and business customers. The internets are once again awash in speculation about APPLE. Rumours abound concerning new products like the iPhone 5, the long-rumoured Apple HDTV, and the iPad mini. As usual, the stock continues to perform and our model likes to buy the slight dips. As of this writing, Bloomberg is reporting that Apple has just set September 12th as the day it will announce the new iPhone5. New products are confirmed by the fact that Apple has been doling out LOTS of cash to secure supply chains for new product lines. It has now made pre-payments totaling more than $1 billion to suppliers for components.
Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on Apple Corp HERE
If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.
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What's Hot--Market Valuation

It's time for our monthly look at our overall market valuation figures. The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 8000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges. The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. We use this metric to get an overall snapshot of the market and to discern if stocks are a bargain or overpriced. In the past, the valuation figures have correlated fairly well to market tops and have signaled impending pull backs. Whenever we see overvaluation levels in excess of @ 60% for the overall universe, we issue a valuation watch. We do not have a similar metric for the undervaluation levels, but we generally find that when stock sare calculated to be more than 75% undervalued overall it is time to do some bargain hunting. Subscribers Get FULL ACCESS to our Market and Sector Overviews In the chart below, you can see that our Valuation Model finds that the market is in a range of undervaluation just above what we would consider "normal." We cannot really say that things are at a level where stocks may be considered "cheap." Back in early June we had levels around 80% but since then they have receded and keep flirting with "normal" range. From this chart it sure seems as though "Sell in May and Go Away" may not hold this year--the S&P 500 is up 6% since June 1st., but that is to be expected when there is a US presidential election.
For reference, here is a longer-term chart which tracks the metrics back to March, 2010. Note that undervaluation levels peaked in excess of 90% last Summer.
And finally, here is the chart tracking the levels back to March, 2007. As you can see, elevated undervaluation levels can persist for long periods of time.
We will continue to watch and track our valuation metrics so that we may add to our data set.
Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to [email protected] Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.478) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 1.681 and 1.853 with daily and monthly pivots at 1.507 and 1.468, and semiannual risky level at 1.389. The 50-day simple moving average was tested at 1.566 on Thursday. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1590.5) Annual, weekly and monthly value levels are $1575.8, $1574.3 and $1525.3 with daily, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1632.6, $1643.3, $1702.5 and $1805.8. Below is my second annual risky level at $1388.4. The weekly chart stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at $1601.5. Nymex Crude Oil ($87.34) My semiannual value level is $76.71 with daily and weekly pivots at $88.96 and $89.21 and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at $90.40, $103.58 and $107.63. The weekly chart stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at $88.49. The Euro (1.2182) Daily and monthly pivots are 1.2299 and 1.2237 with weekly risky level at 1.2388. My semiannual value level is 1.1078 with a semiannual risky level at 1.2917. The weekly chart for the euro remains oversold with the five-week modified moving average at 1.2433. Major Indices Daily Dow: (12,879) Annual and semiannual value levels are 12,312 and 10,738 with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 13,072, 13,518 and 13,625. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 12,816.
S&P 500 (1365.0) My annual pivot at 1363.2 with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1381.1, 1435.7 and 1458.2. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the fiveweek modified moving average at 1357.5. NASDAQ (2910) Annual and semiannual value levels are 2698 and 2527 with daily, weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 2931, 3085, 3194 and 3232. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 2920. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2626) Annual and semiannual value levels are 2603, 2300 and 2239 with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 2637, 2750 and 2877. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 2607. Dow Transports (4984) I show no nearby value levels with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 5027, 5346 and 5373. The weekly chart profile needs a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 5128 to be positive - otherwise this chart could be negative. The Dow Transports is back below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 5079 and 5091. Russell 2000 (768.60) I show no nearby value levels with daily, annual, weekly and monthly risky levels at 776.00, 836.15, 841.66 and 846.16. The weekly chart profile stays positive this week on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 790.79 otherwise this chart could be negative. The SOX (381.48) I show no nearby value levels with daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 393.51, 397.61, 420.20 and 450.28. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 376.32.
ValuEngine.com Tools and Services

We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Newsletters, Articles and Other Research Pieces Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Get short, timely messages from ValuEngine Inc Daily Bulletin PDFs, Weekly Newsletter PDFs, and PDF Research Reports

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VE Weekly 120803

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August 3, 2012

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Last 12-M Return

Top-Five Oils-Energy Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Last 12-M Retn(%)

Top-Five Oils-Energy Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Last 12-M Retn(%)

Top-Five Oils-Energy Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Last 12-M Retn(%)

Top-Five Oils-Energy Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Last 12-M Retn(%)

Free Report Download for Subscribers

Sponsored AdUniCore Holdings

Find our more about UniCore Holdings HERE

What's Hot--Market Valuation

ValuEngine.com Tools and Services

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