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Brighton
Shots faced per game

Blackburn

9.4

With Brighton among the best sides in the division at restricting chances and their visitors among the worst, we could see a lot of traffic towards the away goalmouth

12.3

Goals per match scored vs. conceded from outside the area The hosts excel at finding the net from range, but that particular skill might not be of much use to them against Blackburns alert rearguard

0.33

0.13

Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the right Brighton are the Championships heaviest users of the right flank, which pits them nicely against the weaker left side of Blackburns defence

41%

37%

This is a tough one to call between two sides in similar form battling for supremacy on the cusp of the play-offs. While Brighton look marginally more likely to prevail, a draw seems the most probable result given the number these two sides have already served up this season.

Expected score: 1-1

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Hull

Derby

Goals scored vs. conceded per game from open play down the right The Tigers are the Championships most successful users of the right flank and find themselves up against the defence with the divisions weakest left side Shots taken per game (home vs. away) This match looks likely to be a Hull-dominated affair no Championship side averages more shots per match at home and Derby muster very few of their own away Goals scored vs. conceded per game from headers Hull offer one of the divisions greater aerial threats and they should definitely be persisting with high balls given their visitors susceptibility

0.40

0.47

14.9

7.7

0.33

0.40

I wrote Derbys prospects off in a similar match-up at the weekend but they took their few chances well to earn a point. However Hull look better equipped to keep them at bay.

Expected score: 2-0

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Middlesbrough
Shots taken vs. faced per game Leeds seem content with letting their opponents do more of the attacking, and Middlesbrough look happy to oblige

Leeds

12.0

12.2

Goals scored vs. conceded per game from outside the box Boro wont get many better chances to exploit their long range accuracy than this, with Leeds looking vulnerable from distance

0.37

0.30

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the left

16%

The visitors have used the left wing to great effect this season but the right side of Boros defence has been relatively tight, which could well blunt their goal threat

40%

Its been a horrible start to the year for Middlesbrough, who come into this match off the back of 5 consecutive defeats, and while theyll have easier matches than this I still expect them to get back to winning ways.

Expected score: 2-1

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Brentford
Shots taken vs. faced per match

Stevenage

12.6

In addition to soaking up a lot of shots, Stevenage dont take very many either, meaning that this match will probably comprise mostly home traffic

11.9

Goals scored vs. conceded in the first & last 15 mins of matches Half of Brentfords goals come either early or late, which is coincidentally when Stevenage concede roughly half of theirs

49%

49%

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right

35%

While Brentford dont present any glaring weaknesses for Stevenage to exploit, the visitors best chance may be to probe down the right where theyve been relatively successful

45%

With these two teams in stuttering form this is a tough one to call, but Brentford look set to have more opportunities to take the points here.

Expected score: 2-1

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Bury

Sheff Utd
Headed goals scored vs. conceded per game While both these sides are equally dangerous in the air going forward, the visitors are noticeably more vulnerable at the back

0.40

0.37

Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the left Bury have depended heavily on their left flank for goals this season and this is a strategy which could pay off in this instance

50%

33%

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right

45%

The Blades will carry the greater goal threat down their right flank, with their hosts attack-minded left side proving all too vulnerable to opponents incursions

35%

Despite a frustrating start to the year, the visitors are unbeaten in 5 away matches. Bury look capable of giving them a good game, but I suspect not enough of one to outscore them over 90 minutes.

Expected score: 1-1

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Crewe

Bournemouth
Shots faced vs. taken per match Despite being the away side, the Cherries look the more likely to dominate proceedings, testing Crewes strong defensive record at home

12.2

13.1

Goals scored vs. conceded from open play through the centre Both these sides create the majority of their goals in the middle of the pitch, but the visitors police the centre much more effectively

58%

27%

Goals scored vs. conceded in the 15 mins before half time

27%

Crewe often strike late in the first half, which is where Bournemouth have a tendency to concede

21%

While Bournemouth should prove too strong for Crewe, both sides look capable of scoring here and it should be a close match.

Expected score: 1-2

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Doncaster

MK Dons

Shots faced (home) vs. taken (away) per match Doncaster dont allow many shots at their goal on their own turf, but MK Dons tend to take the game to their opponents irrespective of venue, so there could be a heated battle in midfield

7.6

11.4

Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the left Both sides tend to favour the centre when attacking but Doncaster shouldnt overlook the left wing, which aligns nicely with a weak point in their visitors defence Points won from winning vs. losing positions If Doncaster score first then precedent suggests that MK Dons wont be able to recover no League 1 side is better at closing wins out than Rovers while their visitors have struggled to recover from going behind

30%

35%

96%

11%

Neither of these sides are in great form and this is a tougher match than either would want during such a sequence, but Doncasters blip looks to be much less serious and they should be capable of a win.

Expected score: 2-1

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Hartlepool

Portsmouth

Shots per goal scored (home) vs. conceded (away) The divisions most profligate home attack meets its most porous away defence will either be able to raise their game? Goals conceded vs. scored from set pieces Pompey have undeniably relied on set pieces for goals this season but this is no guarantee of success here

13.4

5.4

17%

42%

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play through the centre The visitors tendency to channel their attacks through the middle could also hinder them here, with Hartlepool relatively solid in central positions

37%

59%

Portsmouth arguably wont have a better chance to end their 18 match winless run than against the only side currently still beneath them in the table. The problem is that their hosts are undergoing a revival and have only lost 1 in 5, so this could be the day they swap places.

Expected score: 1-0

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Scunthorpe

Carlisle

Goals scored vs. conceded per match from open play down the right The Iron have been heavily dependent on their right wing for goals this season and theyd be foolish not to move the ball in that direction given their visitors shaky left side Goals conceded vs. scored per match from set pieces Dead ball situations havent favoured Scunthorpe at either end this season, but Carlisle thrive on them to the extent that their hosts should be very nervous Shots per goal scored vs. conceded

0.42

0.40

0.58

0.43

10.5

The home sides wasteful attack is up against one of the divisions more porous defences itll be interesting, but perhaps not pretty, to see which gains the advantage

6.2

This doesnt appear to have the hallmarks of a classic encounter, but both sides are enjoying their best run of form for a while and have a clear means of breaching the others defence. I expect a score draw to be the most likely outcome.

Expected score: 1-1

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Yeovil

Preston

Goals conceded vs. scored per game from set pieces Prestons dead ball proficiency should be worrying Yeovil given their vulnerability at set pieces and in the air generally

0.43

0.43

Goals scored vs. conceded in the 15 mins before half time Yeovils best chance of scoring is just before half time, when theyve been particularly lively and their visitors flat-footed so far this season Shots faced per game (home vs. away) The precedent is for these sides both to restrict the others chances, which will emphasise the need for sharpness in front of goal

24%

23%

7.7

8.6

Despite the Glovers impressive recent form which has lifted them to the periphery of the playoff zone, playing to their strengths will give Preston a great chance of ending their current malaise.

Expected score: 1-2

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Morecambe

Aldershot

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right The right flank offers the Shots an obvious avenue of attack here if theyre prepared to take it Shots faced vs. taken per game Morecambes defence is used to taking a battering, but their visitors are one of League 2s most shot-shy teams will this respite enable the hosts to push further forward?

42%

40%

11.9

7.8

Goals scored vs. conceded per match from open play through the centre

0.65

The home sides most promising means of attacking is through the middle, where theyve been carving out goals on a more regular basis than their league position would suggest

0.53

This looks likely to be a low-scoring affair (cue goal avalanche) despite both sides having a promising route to goal. Despite their lowly position, Aldershot have been relatively successful on the road and should run Morecambe close.

Expected score: 1-1

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Oxford

Fleetwood

Goals conceded vs. scored per match from set pieces Neither of these sides has defended set pieces particularly well this season, but the visitors are significantly more effective at converting their own Shots per goal scored vs. conceded Oxford have one of the more clinical attacks in League 2 but theyll have their work cut out trying to breach Fleetwoods resolute defence Proportion of time spent losing by 1 goal These two sides spend very little time being a goal down, although in Oxfords case this has tended to be due to them conceding again, suggesting they leave themselves overly exposed when chasing a game

0.43

0.43

7.4

10.6

13%

10%

Oxford have struggled for goals recently and their recent 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture doesnt bode well for them here.

Expected score: 0-2

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Southend

Cheltenham

Shots taken (home) vs. faced (away) per match The numbers suggest that well see a dominant home performance, as both these sides play much more freely at home than away

13.4

12.8

Shots conceded vs. scored from inside the 6 yard box If Cheltenham can work the ball in close to the Shrimpers goal then they stand a good chance of getting on the score sheet Goals per game conceded vs. scored from set pieces

33%

40%

0.20

Cheltenham have relied on corners more than any other Football League side this season, but theyre up against one of League 2s better drilled defences

0.48

With both sides in the thick of the promotion contest this could be a tense encounter, but with Cheltenham in poor form this looks like the wrong time to be playing a side who look capable of nullifying their game plan.

Expected score: 1-0

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Torquay
Shots faced vs. taken per game

Rotherham

12.9

The Gulls have League 2s busiest defence and their visitors all-action approach looks set to keep them even busier than usual Goals scored vs. conceded in 6 yard box Torquay have profited from getting the ball into the 6 yard box but are likely to find this a trickier task against the Millers

13.1

39%

23%

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the left If the visitors continue to bias their attacks towards the left then they stand a good chance of breaching the Gulls rearguard

32%

38%

With Rene Howe back in the side and prodigal poacher Elliot Benyon also returning to the club, the Gulls should be capable of getting on the score sheet. The problem is that their visitors dont look likely to draw a blank either and have won 4 of their last 5 away matches.

Expected score: 1-2

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Wycombe

Bradford

Goals conceded vs. scored inside the 6 yard box Much depends on how hard their players will be pushing with the League Cup Final approaching, but if Bradford can get the ball in close then Wycombe could struggle to keep a clean sheet

38%

43%

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the left Bradfords main route to goal is the left flank, but Wycombe look more capable of choking their supply line than most Shots taken vs. faced per game

14%

52%

8.2

If Bradford have their mind on the job at hand then Wycombe will still need to make the most of their goalscoring chances, as theyre unlikely to get many

7.8

The distraction of the cup seems to have robbed the Bantams of their edge lately, with their form nosediving just as Wycombes is soaring. I suspect that theyll be good enough for a point however.

Expected score: 1-1

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York

Gillingham
Shots per goal conceded vs. scored Gillinghams lofty position has been partly due to ruthlessness in front of goal and theyre up against one of the divisions more porous defences here Matches in which failed to score vs. kept clean sheet Gillinghams defence has been immense this season and theyll be targeting a clean sheet against a front line which has drawn a blank on numerous occasions Shots taken per game home vs. away

6.2

7.0

35%

40%

9.1

York create fewer chances than most at home so could find themselves on the back foot for long spells against one of the divisions more aggressive travellers

10.4

York managed a draw in the reverse fixture but are now winless in 6, the last 2 being heavy defeats, which doesnt seem conducive to overcoming opponents with the best away record in the division.

Expected score: 0-2