Forecasting Process
Forecasting Process
Forecasting Process
Trend Chasers
a.k.a. Forecasters locate the spawning grounds of trends identify emerging concepts fashion information passed on to other forecasters, product developers, marketers and the press work for all kinds of firms
Strategic Window
i.e. a window of opportunity timing a firms product offerings to the customers readiness and willingness to accept and adopt those products.
Forecasting Defined:
Forecasting should identify: Source Underlying Pattern Direction Tempo Forecasting attempts to project past trends into the future Anticipates future developments by watching for signals of change in current situations
Trend:
Can be emerging, building or declining It has identifiable similarities across information sources. (styles, details, etc) Characterized by a building awareness among consumers
Fad:
short trend (a trend with a short duration) accepted among a relatively small contingent of consumers fades quickly because it isnt supported the corresponding lifestyle changes.
Classics:
long trend any item or style that gains visibility, generates multiple purchases, and reaches a plateau level of widespread acceptance that persists over a long period of time. classics implement core attributes desireable while avoiding extreme styling
Visualization
Helps forecasters understand and communicate the movement of fashion and project future directions. There are 3 most familiar patterns of visualization.
Fashion Curve:
trends are classified in duration and penetration which are visualized by a curve time is on the horizontal axis consumer adoption is on the vertical axis
Pendulum Swing:
refers to periodic movement of fashion between extremes. Ex. Power dressing in the 80s moved on to relaxed dress codes.
Fashion Cycles:
The idea that there exist cyclical patterns in fashion that reoccur over time and are discernible. The reoccurring patterns are called long wave phenomenon
Fashion Scan:
Following the latest fashion news to spot emerging fashion & lifestyle trends Focus on color, textiles or style forecasting
Consumer Scan:
Attempts to identify clusters of people who share Characteristics Usually combined with demographics, lifestyle, attitudes and behavior Used to determine target market Can be used to better understand consumer behavior
Fashion Analysis:
Combines FASHION SCAN and CONSUMER SCAN to determine what is likely to happen next Brings together expertise of a fashion insider & the insights of consumer behavior
Trend Analysis:
Detects short & long term trends that affect business prospects Uses all of the aforementioned tools: Fashion Scan Consumer Scan Fashion Analysis Social and Economic Trends Trend Analysis
Competitive Analysis
Reasearches the plans and capabilities of competing firms by tracing public information sources. Over time this allows for the benchmarking of activities against competitors and to develop an accurate view of the market environment.
Defining Fashion:
Fashion is a style that is popular in the present. It is a set of trends that have been accepted by a wide audience. It is a complex phenomenon: psychological, sociological, cultural or commercial points of view
7 Statements of Fashion:
Fashion as a Social and Psychological Response Fashion as a Popular Culture Fashion as Change Fashion as a Universal Phenomenon Fashion as a Transfer of Meaning Fashion as an Economical Stimulus Fashion and Gender Differences
7 Statements of Fashion:
Fashion as a Social and Psychological Response Clothing simultaneously conceals and reveals the body & self. The buying of fashion is cognitively challenging ($$$ vs. value) and emotionally arousing (+ vs. -) in terms of symbolic meaning to products.
7 Statements of Fashion:
Fashion as a Popular Culture
Operating within the domain of popular culture It is sometimes trivial and transient This invites skepticism because it sometimes seems frivolous or extreme
7 Statements of Fashion:
Fashion as Change
Captures charms of novelty Responsiveness to the spirit of the times and the pull of historical continuity
7 Statements of Fashion:
Fashion as a Universal Phenomenon example: Mid 15th century Burgundy was a fashion hub With international trade came exposure to foreign styles Fashion is trade in materials, ideas and artisans
7 Statements of Fashion:
Fashion as a Transfer of Meaning Meaning exists in the cultural environment Designers, marketers and the press transfer meaning to a consumer good. One buys the consumer good and constructs ones world
7 Statements of Fashion:
Fashion as an Economical Stimulus Fashion is an economic entity Planned obsolescence powers the economic engines of fashion There is a pleasure associated with new looks and new clothes, styles, etc.
7 Statements of Fashion:
Fashion and Gender Differences
Mens clothes traditionally occupational Womens clothes traditionally vented their individuality Apparel for the genders is not on the same field.