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World population

Most scientists now agree that the earth is now 4.5 billion years old Humans have been around for around 200,000 years The population is know around 6.8 billion

world population growth

The trend of the growth is an exponential growth starting from only 170 million people in 1 AD which is our first record up to the present date when there are 6.8 billion people. The growth is getting faster as in the first 1000 years there was only a growth of 80 million but between the year 1000 and 2000 there was a growth of 5 billion 850 million people. The world population is growing due to a lack of contraception. People having children to send them to work. Infant mortality getting lower. And there is also more medicine so the average death age is higher The growth of world population Global population is expanding by 80million every year. World population growth does not take place evenly some continents grow at faster rates than others Europe north America and Australasia have low growth rates Estimated that 2050 Europes population will shrink by 90 million China India and Pakistan will contribute most to world population growth by 2050 By 2050 it is estimated India will overtake china as the worlds most populous country 95% of world population growth is happening in 3rd world countrys citys such as Mumbai and Mexico city

Factors which can increase population Lack of contraception and family planning Lack of knowledge about kids Having kids to look after Prostitution Immigration High birth rate Religion people thinking they should have children, not

Factors which can decrease population Disease Death Migration Lack of food no jobs war

key term: Natural change is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate expressed as a % to get it as a percentage it is the birth rate per 1000 death rate divided by 10

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Fertility rate

Birth rate: is an indication of an areas fertility but s specifically the number of live births per 1000 people in a 1 year period Fertility rate: is the average number of children each women in a population will bear Why is infant mortality a good indicator of a countrys development? What is it : the number of deaths of children under the age of 1 year expressed per thousand live births. Why is this a good indicator of development? : in the past in countries such as the UK infant mortality claimed a considerable percentage of children born but rate have declined significantly as the UK has developed due mainly to improvements in sanitation and healthcare This pattern is true for most countries where as a country develops facilities such as sanitation and healthcare improvements inevitably therefore infant mortality falls Countries with a high infant mortality can be reasonably assumed as being less developed than those with low infant mortality rate. The worlds average fertility rate is 2.46 There is a high fertility rate in places such as Africa There is a low fertility rate in areas such as japan

Factors that may cause high fertility rates within a country A High national death rate: if a country has a high death rate more children will need to be born to replace those dying. This may be the case in underdeveloped countries with poor health care and sanitation. Tradition: tradition of either having lots of children or making sure you have a son to keep the family name can cause a high fertility rate Sexualisation of the media: this introduces a more relaxed attitude to sex which can lead to more people having children Poor quality/ no education: if people dont know either were to get or how to use contraception or the effects of having children it can lead to a high fertility rate Access to contraception: A lack of contraception means that there is often accidental pregnancys Religion: In the catholic religion you cant use contraception. Christians believe they have to fulfil gods commandment to be fruitful and multiply Wealth: People may think they have the money to look after kids so they have allot

C/W stage Uk time period 1 Bangladesh and rainforest tribes Uk in 1750

The demographic model 2 Bangladesh, Libya and Nigeria are currently in this stage Uk was in this stage 1750-1880 High birth rate 3 China 1880-1940 The UK was in this from 1880 1940 4 The UK is in this stage at the moment along with the US 1940-now Low BR 5 Italy and japan are in this stage UK is getting close to this stage Very low BR ( lower than DR) Very low DR High A new fifth stage has recently been added This is due to countries like japan and Italy having a higher DR than BR so their populatio n is falling

Birth rate

High birth rate

Middle to low and decreasing Middle to low and decreasing Middle to high and increasing BR falls to near 20 DR continues to fall to 15 Fall in BR due to better access to contraceptio n more family planning education working women getting married and having children later, less need for children in the labour force DR continues to fall as health care improves further and sanitation conditions improve

Death rate Total population Description and explanation of this stage

High death rate Low population High birth rate and high death rate This means a slow population growth High BR rate

High but decreasing death rate Increasing but relatively low BR remains high DR falls to 20 per 1000 by the end The DR falls due to improvements in healthcare sanitation and water quality and increased access to medicine and food The uk was in this period between 1750 and 1880. Countries such as of their development

Low DR High DR and BR are low Population growth is close to zero.

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The population pyramid

Describing the uk population pyramid Most people who were parents in the 1960s were in their 50s in 2001 and feature a slight bulge here. There is a relatively high number of people in their 80s there are 2 main reasons for this, people born in the 1910-20 period were often part of large familys and secondly due to health care they have been living longer. The bulge of population from age 30 40 is due to immigrants who have allot of children. The bulge showing people in their 30s shows that there was a slightly higher BR in the 1960s and 70s as a secondary boom from WW2 baby boom babies who are now parents As the century progressed death rates have fallen despite wars. Improvements in medicine and healthcare have meant that many of these people especially women are living beyond 80. The number of children has fallen around the turn of the century due to various reasons, increased contraception, abortion and sterilisation. The growing importance of material possessions, career women. This shows that the UK is towards the end of stage 4 in the demographic transition model. Dependency ratio This shows the percentage of the population who are dependent on either family, the state or their pension. Worked out by (% of people under 15 + % over 65) divided by % between 15 and 64

Youthful population

Implications Whys so many young people The women dont get much say in how many children they have Religious beliefs discourage contraception For familys in rural areas having lots of children gives the farm more hands Religious social and economic beliefs combine to form large familys The birth rate is 40 It has one of the biggest populations Pyramids and dependency large base narrows quickly when people die young life expectancies is around 48 Implications 11 women die per 1000 children born 73children die per 1000 children born Life expectancy of 53 for men and 57 for women The population pyramids base is expected to grow even more Population will double every 28 years There is a high dependency ratio of over 92% Challenges Government doesnt have the money to build infrastructure as the town grows There is no sanitation or running water There is no money to build schools, one has 3000 children in 26 rooms and there is only 6 toilets. Responses Contraception Most the population doesnt have a television so it is hard for people to get information on it People cannot afford the contraception so it is reliant on aid money Contraception cost has been subsidised by the government. Growth fallen from 4.2% to 3%

Health The government has launched a child health program to stop familys having lots of children as they thing they will die 1 in 10 children die before they are 5 They have put allot of work into stopping diseases and treating them There is also facilities to help mothers who are pregnant to help the children On average the fertility rate is was 7 but it has dropped to 6 by the year 2000 Education Women are encouraged to space out their births They are being educated on the benefits of contraception Counselling is offered to women Managing resources People are hoping that fertility rate is still dropping and it is hoped it will drop even more so the government doesnt take away the funding

Pro-natal policies in Europe Ireland Poland Has the highest fertility rate in the EU even though child care is undeveloped and expensive Mothers get 26 weeks maternity leave and 14 weeks parental leave Birth rate is 1.99

Women are paid for each new child They get 177 for each child. Women from poorer familys get double that Population has decreased by half a million in 6 years Birth rate is 1.78 France UK 6 months paid leave and a option of another 6 months unpaid. Fathers are allowed 2 weeks paid leave Free early education places Has the most expensive state funded child care in Europe Mothers can have 16 weeks paid maternity leave rising to 26 for third child. Child care facilities are subsidised by the government. Child rate is second highest at 1.9

 Parents of children under age of 6 get more flexible working hours Birth rate 1.74 Germany Spain Spain has the second lowest fertility rate amount the original 15 eu countrys There has been a strong public opposition to government action The In 2003 the government introduced a range of government policies including setting up child care and facilities that promote long term employment over short term contracts There 16 weeks paid leave and three years unpaid leave Birth rate is 1.32 Germany has long had one of the lowest birth rates 30% of women dont have children The problem was made worse by being ignored for so long 14 weeks paid leave There is a lack of child care places and it is hard as the school day ends at 1pm 1 in 3 children dont get child care Birth rate is now top of the governments agenda with one idea being to remove the fees for kindergarten The birth rate is 1.37

Case study Ageing population East Devon Why do we have an ageing population? In the UK there are 10 million people who are over the age of 65, that is 16% of the population. People are living longer because we have better healthcare, good education and more money to spend on luxuries. In the UK people are getting married later and are having fewer children. Life expectancy is 81 years for women and 76 for men. Dependency ratio 65% of the population are economically active, 19% of the population are under the age of 15 and 16% are over 65. 19% + 16% x 100 = 53.8% 65% This means that for every 100 people working there are almost 54 people who are dependants. Implications . Areas of the UK with a high percentage of old people are unattractive to young people, they do not want to live there. . Pensioners have a reduced income. . Because there is a high number of elderly more pension funds are needed, this puts a strain on the economically active who pay for the pensions via national health contributions. . An elderly population is a major challenge for the health service. Old people suffer more problems such as needing eye operations and hip replacements, they have more heart problems. This puts more pressure on doctors, chemists and hospitals. . Dispersed settlement pattern the elderly live in spread out communities. Transport links are vital to transport people around, many can not drive or afford a car and some of them will have lost their licence. . The elderly need different kinds of housing. . Old people contribute 215 billion to the economy. . Grandparents look after grandchildren so parents can work saving millions of pounds each year. . Social isolation, old people often live on their own and do not see other people. . Old people affect what type of shops and facilities there are in the area. . Old people often do voluntary work. The area of East Devon East Devon has the 2nd highest concentration of over 50s in England. It is a coastal county with beautiful countryside. It is a World Heritage site that protects its natural beauty. 125,000 live near the coast with the rest of the population scattered in villages, housing is expensive

Meeting housing needs . Retirement flats . Residential complexes designed for the elderly include sockets and pull switches at waist height for easy access, emergency pull cords in each room to get assistance quickly and CCTV for security. The complexes have communal areas for people to socialise. Health . The elderly go to the doctors more often. . There are intermediate care homes to free up hospital space. . NHS try to keep old people in their own homes instead of being in hospital, nurses help at home, this speeds up recovery time. Facilities and services . Old people have more time. . To keep them mentally and physically active there are computer courses, handicrafts, fitness clubs, the NGO Age Concern organises game clubs at their centres and 60% do swimming sessions at their local pool. Transport . Having a dispersed settlement makes it difficult to cover the area with transport. Ring and ride buses help by picking up at home, these buses are adapted but wheel chair access is expensive to run. The bus fares are the same as public transport but more funding is need to keep the service going. The future The market for catering for the elderly will grow. They will become a powerful force in society. East Devon pensioners already have an action forum and are trying to get lower council taxes, larger pensions and benefits.

Sustainable populations A sustainable population: Is one whose growth does not threaten the success or quality of future generations Countries within stage four have low birth rates and low death rates (therefore low growth rates) are the most sustainable Stage 2 and 3 are unsustainable as there are very high birth rates and decreasing death rates therefore there is a huge total population and high growth rate. Overpopulation is when there are to many people in an area for the amount of resources available resulting in a reduced standard of living. Chinas one child policy As the population sky rocketed the government realised it had to do something otherwise there would be enough resources to cope They decided to introduce the one child policy between 1979 and 1981 It was aimed at slowing the rapid population growth that had already taken the population to over 1 billion and to ensure the population growth became sustainable. The country hit 1.3 billion in 2005 If the country had not of introduced a one child policy then the country would of reached 1.3 billion in 2001 China has the worlds largest population What was the problem ? The population was becoming overpopulated The growth was not sustainable The population had doubled from 500k in 30 years Couples were told that : They could only have one child They would be punished if they had more than one There were consequences if they disobeyed: You would loose whatever means you used to make a living You would be fined 4 times your annual income They would be sacked from their jobs People would loose all their privileges Women would be pressured into having an abortion Benefits Cash bonuses

 Longer maternity leave Free education Free medical care Better child care Preferential housing arrangements The current situation Recently a second child has been allowed in rural areas after 5 years Among some ethnic minoritys a third child is allowed For urban areas the policy is strictly enforced A second child is only allowed in urban areas if their first is seriously disabled.

The consequences of the one child policy in china Generation of spoilt children Lonely children Ageing population Gender in balance Additional information and facts Houses would be pulled down if you had a second child They restrict your rights and stop you from making a living People need boys because girls marry of and help out another country The women are pushed to having an abortion The population doubled from 500k to 1 billion in 30 years They think that the population has to be controlled to help boost economic and social growth Beijing has a population of 15 million The policy has been weekend recently due to new leaders and increased wealth. There is concern that the one child policy has created a generation of spoilt children There are over 1 million state run centres who control the one child policy There is free contraception at these centres Free health care and pre natal classes are given to people at the centres You need a permit to have a baby There has been a massive benefit to the health of women due to the attention to detail to the women.

Population and recourses There are two views on how the worlds population. The optimists view that as the worlds population grows our resources will develop to keep up with growing demand. The pessimists view is that their will be a point when it isnt possible for the world to produce enough resources for the population. The pessimist Thomas Malthus is well known for an essay on the principle of population and published it in 1798 the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man Malthus belief Malthus argued that population grows at a geometrical rate while food supply at best at and indefinitely arithmetic rate Population growth = 1,2,4,8,16,32 Good supply growth = 1,2,3,4,5,6 Malthus predictions Population growth would inevitably lead to famine unless mankind showed restraint and limited its population growth During the 19th century Malthus predictions didnt come true although UKs population continued to rise. Malthuss predictions did not come true in the 19 th century due to food supplys increasing from the agricultural revolution so even though the population did increase the food supplys were high enough for people to cope. In my opinion Malthus predictions have come though to some extent in the 21 st century in places like Africa as many people are starving as the population grows further and further but there is a lack of food and resources leading to malnutrition and a crisis in countries like this. One of the main reasons that this is a problem is because of climate conditions in areas like Africa were drought ruins crops and makes it very hard to provide enough food for their ever increasing population. On the other hand many countrys are coping with population goods even countries with huge populations such as china they are hoping as they have enough food due to them not being reliant on weather conditions for their food, and some countries such as Italy are even struggling to cope with a too small population.

The optimist The optimistic view is that as population increases so will our capability to provide for the population. Ester Boserup came up with this theory and she said that necessity is the mother of invention. Boserups belief: She disagreed with Malthus and thought she could explain why his predictions hadnt come true. She said that increases in population act to stimulate changes in agricultural production. In primitive agriculture, increased population had lead to increased use of manure and fertiliser to increase yields. She gave an example of the green revolution of the 1950s saw scientific and technological advances increase the yields of many crops allowing food supply to keep up with growing population Another optimist Julian simon from America wrote a book called the ultimate resource which agreed with Boserups belief and thought that standard of living will in crease. He thought our brain power is the ultimate resource as we can always find a solution. He thinks that you will either find more resources, extract more from what is already known about, find an alternative or produce other ways to create resources.

Evidence to support the population growth theories

Evidence to support the pessimists Food riots in Haiti suggest parts of the world are facing food shortages. Air powered cars have not worked 1.8billion people will be affected by water scarcity by 2025 People have been priced out of food in Haiti A reduction of 80% co2 is needed within the next few decades

Evidence to support the optimists Indonesia and the Philippines have huge potential for geothermal power production due to their geological setting. GM crops are being developed and will provide affordable food to the mass market

The club of Rome The club of Rome was created to tackle the problem of population growth They wrote a book called the limitations of growth. They constructed a model to investigate five major trends of global concern. All levels in the model begin with the 1900 values and go through to 1970. They concluded If the present growth trends in world population, industrialisation, pollution food production and resource depletion continue unchanged the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity. They also said it is possible to alter these growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable Migration

Migration is the term used for any kind of movement from one place to another in the case of population; it usually refers to a long term usually permanent change of residence. Migration is influenced due to - Birth rate - Death rate - Jobs - Unemployment - Climate - Social life - Religion - Family - Safety Push factors: rural -ethnic tensions -Low income - war -health care - climate - unemployment Push factors: urban - Ethnic tensions - Natural disasters - Unemployment - Housing shortages

Pull factors rural - attractive environment - improved housing

Pull factors urban - Health care - Improved housing - Education - Wages - High standard of living - Job prospects

USA to Mexico Migration Between 1 and 2 million Mexicans each year cross the border into the USA People try to move both voluntarily and are sometimes forced The forced migrants have to leave for racial, religious and political reasons Many voluntary migrants choose to leave for mainly financial reason They are attracted to the USA due to the ideology of the American dream Mexican push and pull factors Push - Poor medical facilities 1800 per doctor - Life expectancy of 72 years - 40% unemployed - Low paid jobs (gdp of 3750) - Adult literacy rate of 55% and poor education prospects Pull: - Life expectancy of 76 years - Many jobs available for low skilled workers like Mexicans - Well-paid jobs ( GNP 24750) - Excellent medical facilities 400 per doctor Migration types When migration must occur due to a change of circumstances for example a natural disaster this is forced migration. - Voluntary migrants choose to move of their own decision - The official definition of an international migrant is somebody who has migrated to another country for at least 1 year - Migration within a nation is usually for economic or social reasons - The desire to migrate to another country is normally more complex and restricted by political factors such as immigration laws. Types: Medc Medc = forced for example evacuation of Mt St Helens Ledc Medc = voluntary eg polish immigrants to UK, Forced eg asylum seekers