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PROJECT REPORT ON

TWO-WHEELER INDUSTRY

QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES BASED DECISION MAKING I

SUBMITTED BY: SAGAR PANCHAL (2012262) SHILPI BHANDARI (2012294) SNEHAL SHARMA (2012310) PGDM (2012-14) Group No. : 09 SECTION E

COURSE COORDINATOR: Dr. S. MAHESWARAN

ABOUT THE COMPANIES:


HERO MOTOCORP LIMITED
Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (Formerly Hero Honda Motors Ltd.) is the world's largest manufacturer of two - wheelers, based in India. In 2001, the company achieved the coveted position of being the largest two-wheeler manufacturing companyin India and also, the 'World No.1' two-wheeler company in terms of unit volume sales in a calendar year. Hero MotoCorp Ltd. continues to maintain this position till date. The story of Hero Honda began with a simple vision - the vision of a mobile and an empowered India, powered by its bikes. Hero MotoCorp Ltd., company's new identity, reflects its commitment towards providing world class mobility solutions with renewed focus on expanding company's footprint in the global arena. Hero MotoCorp's mission is to become a global enterprise fulfilling its customers' needs and aspirations for mobility, setting benchmarks in technology, styling and quality so that it converts its customers into its brand advocates. The company will provide an engaging environment for its people to perform to their true potential. It will continue its focus on value creation and enduring relationships with its partners. Hero MotoCorp's key strategies are to build a robust product portfolio across categories, explore growth opportunities globally, continuously improve its operational efficiency, aggressively expand its reach to customers, continue to invest in brand building activities and ensure customer and shareholder delight.

BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED


Bajaj Auto Limited is an Indian motorized vehicle-producing company. Bajaj Auto is a part of Bajaj Group. Its founded by Jamnalal Bajaj at Rajasthan in the 1930s. It is based in Pune, Maharashtra, with plants in Chakan (Pune), Waluj (near Aurangabad) and Pantnagar in Uttaranchal. The oldest plant at Akurdi (Pune) now houses the R&D centre Ahead. Bajaj Auto makes and exports automobiles,scooters, motorcycles and the auto rickshaw. Bajaj Auto is the world's third-largest manufacturer of motorcycles and second-largest in India. The Forbes Global 2000 list for the year 2005 ranked Bajaj Auto at 1,946. It features at 1639 in forbes 2011 list. Over the last decade, the company has successfully changed its image from a scooter manufacturer to a two-wheeler manufacturer. Its product range encompasses scooterettes, scooters and motorcycles. Its real growth in numbers has come in the last four years after successful introduction of a few models in the motorcycle segment. The company is headed by Rahul Bajaj who is worth more than US$1.5 billion. Bajaj Auto came into existence on 29 November 1945 as M/s Bachraj Trading Corporation Private Limited. It started off by selling imported two- and three-wheelers in India. In 1959, it obtained license from the Government of India to manufacture two- and three-wheelers and it went public in 1960. In 1970, it rolled out its 100,000th vehicle. In 1977, it managed to produce and sell 100,000 vehicles in a single financial year. In 1985, it started producing at

Waluj near Aurangabad. In 1986, it managed to produce and sell 500,000 vehicles in a single financial year. In 1995, it rolled out its ten millionth vehicle and produced and sold one million vehicles in a year.

INDIA YAMAHA MOTORS:


Yamaha made its initial foray into India in 1985. Subsequently, it entered into a 50:50 jointventure with the Escorts Group in 1996. However, in August 2001, Yamaha acquired its remaining stake becoming a 100% subsidiary of Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd, Japan (YMC). In 2008, Mitsui & Co., Ltd. entered into an agreement with YMC to become a joint-investor in the motorcycle manufacturing company "India Yamaha Motor Private Limited (IYM)". IYM operates from its state-of-the-art manufacturing units at Surajpur in Uttar Pradesh and Faridabad in Haryana and produces motorcycles for both domestic and export markets. With a strong workforce of more than 2,000 employees, IYM is highly customer-driven and has a countrywide network of over 400 dealers. Presently, its product portfolio includes VMAX (1,679cc), MT01 (1,670cc), YZF-R1 (998cc), FZ1(998cc), YZF-R15 version 2.0 (150cc), Fazer (153cc), FZ-S (153cc), FZ16 (153cc), SZ-R(153cc), SZ & SZ-X (153cc), SS125 (123cc), YBR 125 (123cc), YBR 110 (106cc) and Crux (106cc).

TVS MOTORS
TVS Motor Company Limited is the fourth largest two-wheeler manufacturer in India. It is part of TVS Group and manufactures motorcycles, scooters, mopeds and auto rickshaws. TVS Motor has grown to be the largest in the group, both in terms of size and turnover, with four state of the art manufacturing plants in Hosur, Mysore and Nalagarh in India and Karawang in Indonesia. TVS Motor is credited with many innovations in the Indian automobile industry, notable among them being the introduction of India's first two-seater moped, the TVS 50cc. The company became the leader in its category of sub 100 cc mopeds, having sold 7 million units. It also introduced the TVS Scooty, which is India's second largest brand in the scooterette segment. The TVS Jive launched in November 2009 became India's first clutch-free motorbike aimed at a stress-free rider experience while the unisex scooter TVS Wego is targeted at urban couples, featuring body-balance technology for easier handling. On 1 June 2012, TVS Motors reported a dip of 5% in its total sales for May 2012. In July 2012, TVS Motors and BMW Motorrad were reported to be in talks for technology sharing.

OBJECTIVES OF STUDY:

To find consistency of Production, Domestic sales and export sales of 4-major two Wheeler player Bajaj Auto., Hero Moto Corp., Yamaha Motors and TVS Motors. To test hypothesis about significance difference in population mean based on the data gathered from the 4-major two Wheeler players Bajaj Auto., Hero Moto Corp., Yamaha Motors and TVS Motors of the Production, Domestic sales and export sales. To predict the effect on Bajaj Two-wheeler domestic sales by increase in per capita income of India.

METHODOLOGY:
Coefficient of Variation Analysis of Variance Linear Regression Analysis

COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION:
Domestic Sales in Volumes (UNITS)
Operational Figures Bajaj Auto Ltd. Hero Moto Corp. Yamaha Motors TVS Motors 2008-09 1286119 3640807 162346 1136344 Bajaj Ltd. 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Total Average Variance 1286119 1785247 2414633 2566757 8052756 2013189 3.4939E+11 2009-10 1785247 4502431 223305 1356843 Auto. Hero Corp. 3640807 4502431 5269381 6069280 19481899 4870474.8 1.081E+12 1039839.6 21% 2010-11 2414633 5269381 277546 1764956 Moto Yamaha Motors 162346 223305 277546 355497 1018694 254673.5 6732293152 82050.55242 32% 2011-12 2566757 6069280 355497 1895500

TVS Motors 1136344 1356843 1764956 1895500 6153643 1538410.75 1.24487E+11 352826.6817 23%

Standard 591095.919 Deviation Coefficient of 29% variation

INTERPRETATION OF RESULT: In domestic market sales of HERO MOTO CORP. Is more consistent and homogenous as lowest CV followed by TVS, BAJAJ and YAMAHA with decreasing consistency and homogeneity.

EXPORT (UNITS):
Operational Figures 2008-09 2009-10 726449 97699 65123 165414 2010-11 972437 133063 89224 227594 2011-12 1267648 165915 129394 260899

Bajaj Auto Ltd. 633463 Hero Moto 81193 Corp. Yamaha 38537 Motors TVS Motors 193398

Bajaj Ltd. Total Average Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of variation 3599997 899999.3 8.05E+10 283768.7 32%

Auto. Hero Moto Yamaha Corp. Motors 477870 119467.5 1.43E+09 37775.71 32% 322278 80569.5 1488019196 38574.85 48%

TVS Motors 847305 211826.25 1716818027 41434.50 20%

INTERPRETATION OF RESULT: In export market sales of TVS MOTORS is more consistent and homogenous as lowest CV followed by HERO MOTO CORP & BAJAJ having same CV and YAMAHA with decreasing consistency and homogeneity.

PRODUCTION (UNITS)
Operational Figures Bajaj Auto Ltd. Hero Moto Corp. Yamaha Motors TVS Motors 2008-09 1900504 3723402 213759 1282405 2009-10 2518885 4596245 283971 1520511 2010-11 3404103 5408694 362345 2013099 2011-12 3849163 6274117 498350 2148241

Bajaj Ltd. Total Average Variance

Auto. Hero Corp.

Moto Yamaha Motors 1358425 339606.25 14883146764

TVS Motors 6964256 1741064 1.66269E+11

11672655 2918164 7.66E+11

20002458 5000615 1.19E+12

Standard Deviation Coefficient of variation

875205 30%

1092874 22%

121996.5031 36%

407761.3087 23%

INTERPRETATION OF RESULT: In production of two-wheeler HERO MOTO CORP. Is more consistent and homogenous as lowest CV followed by TVS, BAJAJ and YAMAHA with decreasing consistency and homogeneity.

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA):


Domestic Sales in Volumes (UNITS)
1. Null Hypothesis, Ho : 1 = 2 = 3 = 4 Alternative Hypothesis, H1 : 1 2 3 4 2. Level of Significance () = 5% (Assumed) 3. Grand Total : Xij = 34706992 4. Correction Factor : (CF) = =
2 16

(34706992)2

= 7.528E+13

5. Raw sum of Square (RSS) = XiJ2 = 1.255E+14 6. TSS = RSS CF = (1.255E+14) - (7.528E+13) = 5.02E+13 7. TrSS = = 4.55E+13

8. ESS = TSS TrSS = (5.02E+13) (4.55E+13) = 4.7E+12

9. Anova Table Sources of Degree Variation Freedom 1 2 Treatment Error Total 10. Ftab = 3.41 11. F > FTab INTERPRETATION OF RESULT Reject null hypothesis and conclude that mean domestic sales of 4 two wheeler players are not equal. K-1 = 3 n-k = 16-3 = 13 n-1 = 15 of Sum of Squares TrSS = 4.55E+13 ESS = 4.7E+12 TSS = 5.02E+13 Mean Sum Squares of F-Ratio

F = TMS = TrSS/DoF TMS/EMS = 1.5166E+13 = 41.95 EMS = ESS/Dof = 3.615E+11

For Export sales (Units)


1. Anova Table Sources of Degree Variation Freedom K-1 = 3 Treatment Error Total 2. Ftab = 3.41 3. F < FTab of Sum of Squares Mean Sum of Squares F-Ratio TrSS = TMS = TrSS/DoF F = TMS/EMS 1.78E+12 = 5.93E+11 = 0.226 ESS = EMS = ESS/Dof 3.408E+13 = 2.621E+12 TSS = 3.586E+13

1 2

n-k = 16-3 = 13 n-1 = 15

INTERPRETATION OF RESULT Do not reject null hypothesis and conclude that there is no significance difference in the mean export sales of 4 two wheeler players

For Production (Units)


1. Anova Table Sources of Degree Variation Freedom 1 2 Treatment Error Total 2. Ftab = 3.41 3. F > FTab INTERPRETATION OF RESULT Reject null hypothesis and conclude that there is significance difference in the mean production of 4 two wheeler players. of Sum of Mean Sum of F-Ratio Squares Squares TrSS = TMS = TrSS/DoF F = TMS/EMS K-1 = 3 4.670E+13 = 1.556E+13 = 31.51 ESS = EMS = ESS/Dof n-k = 16-3 = 13 6.42E+12 = 4.938E+11 TSS = n-1 = 15 5.312E+13

Linear Regression Analysis:


Testing of the effect of increase in per capita on sales of Bajaj 2-wheeler segment Bajaj Domestic TwoPer Capita Wheeler sales (In Rs Income (In Rs.) X^2 million) X Y
40649 39595 40441 54527 175212 87370 89609 118275 163914 459168 1652341201 1567764025 1635474481 2973193729 7828773436

Year

XY

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 SUM

3551503130 3548068355 4783159275 8937738678 20820469438

Equation of simple regression = bo b1X SSxy = XY


()()

= 20820469438 = 707533534 SSxx = X2 ()^2

175212459168 4

b1 =

= 7828773436 = 153962200

(175212)2 4

= 153962200 = 4.60 b0 =
459168

707533534

= (4.60 4 = - 0.0867

175212 4

= (-0.0867) + (4.60) X INTERPRETATION OF RESULT This result indicates that for each unit Increase in per capita (X) income, sales (Y) are predicted to increase by 4.60 units. bo indicates that the value of Y when x=0. It indicates that when there is no per capita income, sales is predicted to decrease by -0.0867 million rupees.

CONCLUSION:
Based upon the measures of Coefficient of Variance
In domestic sales and production of two-wheeler, HERO MOTO CORP.is more consistent than TVS, BAJAJ and YAMAHA. So, future perspective and investment in two-wheeler industry HERO is more sensible than any other player. Bajaj and TVS are close to HERO but Yamaha needs to be more consistent in its production and domestic sales front. The export sales of TVS is very robust and consistent, where as HERO MOTO and BAJAJ are not much consistent and YAMAHA is the worst performer.

Based on ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE


The mean population domestic sales of Hero Moto Corp, TVS, Bajaj and Yamaha are not equal which shows that they occupy the domestic market to different extent with Hero Moto Corp leading the market. The mean population export of all the four companies are surprisingly equal which shows their expansion abroad is same , on an average. The mean population production of all the four companies is also not equal which shows their different production capabilities.

Based on LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS


By checking the effect of per capita income on Bajaj two-wheeler sales value, we conclude that by increasing per capita income by one unit Bajaj sales increases by 4.6 units. So, we can say that Bajaj sales is positively related to per capita income.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOOKS REFERRED:
BUSINESS STATISTICS NAVAL BAJPAI STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS - ANDERSON, SWEENEY, WILLIAMS

WEB REFRENCES:
Hero Moto Corp. - http://www.heromotocorp.com/ Bajaj Auto - http://www.bajajauto.com/ Yamaha Motors India - http://www.yamaha-motor-india.com/ TVS Motors - http://www.tvsmotor.in/index.asp Data Regarding per capita income http://www.indiastat.com/default.aspx Data regarding sales, production, domestic and export from https://www.crisilresearch.com/
Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturer http://www.siamindia.com/scripts/gross-turnover.aspx (SIAM)

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