The Ultimate Football Betting Strategy
The Ultimate Football Betting Strategy
INTRODUCTION
This system is based on the fact that there are some teams that are far more consistent and predictable than others. These are not necessarily better or worse teams than others; they are just very well suited to gambling. The teams that have been selected to appear in this book have been chosen because they consistently produce a particular result. Over several years this result has appeared far more often than any other and certainly far more often than bookmakers odds would suggest. This is the way to Value for Money betting. Value For Money (VFM) is all-important. If you are not getting good odds on a bet, then it is a bad bet and will eventually leave you broke. The systems described here are very simple to understand and follow all the hard work has been done for you.
Home/Away Common Result Value odds (VFM) score % Fractional Decimal Away 1-0 18.4 9-2 5.5 Away 0-0 18.4 9-2 5.5 Home 1-0 19.7 9-2 5.1 Home 1-1 18.4 9-2 5.5 Home Home Away Home Home Away 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 21.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 18.5 21.7 4-1 9-2 9-2 9-2 9-2 4-1 4.6 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 4.6
STAKING SYSTEMS
When you have identified the matches youll be betting on, there are a number of systems you can use in order to maximise your profits. If you have a favourite staking system, you can obviously use that, or you could use one or all of the three shown here. System 1 Level Stakes The simplest way to bet on the selected matches is to bet at level stakes and treat each match as a single bet. On a day when there are six bets, you should only expect one or perhaps two to be winners but the over-generous odds offered will ensure that the small number of winners is easily enough to cover any losing bets and still leave a good profit. One winner from six bets will give you a profit of one or two points. Two winners from six bets will give you about eight points profit. Important point When the Top Ten list requires you to bet on a teams away games, make sure you write the bet with the home team and their score listed first. E.g. If Bolton are away at Tottenham, the bet is written as Tottenham 1-0. The Top Ten list always gives the Home teams score first. If you are using a pre-printed football coupon, just write the score exactly as it appears in the top ten list. Important point 2 When two teams from the list are playing each other, treat it as two separate bets. Both bets are good value although they obviously cant both win (except for Big Bets, described below). Betting at level stakes is the best way to ensure consistent and regular profits and those profits will average out at a couple of points each matchday. If however, you want bigger profits and are prepared to be a little patient, try betting multiples as shown in system 2. System 2 Betting in Multiples When you have selected your bets, its possible to greatly increase the potential payout by combining the bets into multiples. Just use the permutation chart on the next page to find out how many bets are required. Doubles and Trebles are generally the best multiples because they give a nice payout for a small stake and they will come up fairly regularly. Many punters dont bet multiples because they believe you are multiplying your disadvantage with every bet and usually this is correct. However, when you only bet on VFM bets, you are actually multiplying your advantage and therefore your profits are also multiplied. System 3 Big Bets This is when two teams in the list are playing each other and they both have the same common score. This year there are five big bets: Man City vs Bolton 1-0 Bristol City vs Crystal Palace 1-1 Coventry vs Crystal Palace 1-1 Ipswich vs Crystal Palace 1-1 Morecambe vs Shrewsbury 1-1 These are bets that are worth getting an extra couple of pounds on.
PERMUTATION CHART
No. Matches Singles
Doubles
Trebles
Four-folds
Five-folds
Six-folds
Seven-folds
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3 6 10 15 21 28 36 45
1 8 36 120 1 9 45 1 10 1
Ten-folds
Nine-folds
Eight-folds
EXPECTED RESULTS
The reason that all of these systems are so effective is that you are only betting on VFM bets. When you combine those bets, whether as doubles or trebles, etc. you multiply your advantage. As an example we can see that VFM odds on a Wigan home game ending up as a 1-1 home win is listed as 9-2. In reality it is much more likely that this bet would be offered at around 6-1 or more. This is therefore a VFM bet. The average odds you will be offered on all the results listed will be at least 6/1, and usually will be more, especially using Betfair. A successful treble will therefore pay a return of at least 342/1. If you hit a successful four-fold, you will be paid at least 2400/1. From these figures you can see that your stakes dont need to be very big to produce a very good return. Use the permutation chart and decide whether you want to bet on doubles or trebles or bigger multiples. Choose a stake that you can afford and that will give the returns you desire. If you have a spare pound, I would also recommend investing this on an accumulator consisting of all bets for the day. On days where you have six suitable bets, you could win over 120,000 for your one pound stake. Obviously this bet isnt going to win very often, but it only needs to happen once, ever, to be worthwhile. Its definitely a far better bet than spending it on the lottery.
SUMMARY
You now know which the most predictable teams in the English leagues are. You also know what the most common result of each team is. You know how often that result occurs and what odds can be accepted in order for the value to be good value.
So, to summarise. Only bet on the VFM matches shown in the Top Ten list. Remember only bet when the listed team is at home or away as required and also remember that the home teams score is always listed first. Bet at level stakes to produce regular, long-term profits. You can also bet in multiples to increase payouts. Keep stakes low enough so you can afford to cover all the multiples. Bet on each team individually using increasing stakes to produce a pre-planned profit. Dont allow sentiment to cloud your judgment. The systems and statistics in this book are all based on hard facts. If the system says you must bet on your favourite team to lose, then that is what you must do if you want maximum profits.