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PredPol Presentation To Seattle Police Department
PredPol Presentation To Seattle Police Department
Predictive Policing
No standard definition Paradigm Similar to weather forecasting Not Minority Report
High
Reports (i.e. dashboards) Broad-level focus Long-term trends
Examples
Pattern focused
One incident
Low (No)
PredPol is
software technology that predicts the time and place of future crimes high level mathematics combined with experienced crime analysts and veteran police using their own knowledge and experience more than rear view mirror policing that simply maps past crime
www.predpol.com
the science
repeat victimization
B D 2 = B B + t 4
near-repeats
local search
offender behavior
www.predpol.com
mathematical model
LAPD Deployment
tactical ambiguity
tactical clarity
500
micro place-based
intelligence-led
broken-windows
Disrupt Crime by
Detection Apprehension Prevention
Crime Detection
Best chance for being at the right place at the right time
Crime Apprehension
Even being near the right place, near the right time is beneficial
One study found that when the first police car arrived within 4 minutes of a Burglary in Progress call, an arrest was twice as likely as when they arrived at 6 minutes Arrest at the time of burglary is less time-consuming than detecting them after the offenders have left the crime scene
Crime Prevention
policing the risk = reducing the opportunity
Bored Teens
-19%
Santa Cruz burglaries 1st half 2011 vs. 1st half 2012
-12%
L.A. Foothill Division
-12%
serious property crime all L.A. divisions
Nov 11 to May 12
+0.4%
Rest of L.A.
2011-2012
start of LAPD rollout
Day
Standardized: October 15 2011 = October 16, 2010
Contributions to Prediction
Components to Gun Homicide Homicide Robbery Assault Statistical Model 5.5% 13.9% 23.6% Weapons Violation 32.1% Battery 24.8%
Prediction Accuracy
Previous Homicide Robbery Assualt Weapons Volation Battery
PredPol
is NOT: a replacement for knowledge, skills & experience profiling of individuals probable cause new hardware or new hires IS: assigning probabilities of crime in space and time focal points for effective use of police resources use of existing crime data
Residential Burglary Commercial Burglary Vehicle Prowl Auto Theft Robbery Assualts
Strategic Plan
Info view
Directed Patrol
Incident Mapping
Crimeview
Data-Driven Objectives
Create a situational awareness of citywide crime activity, trends, and emerging issues (hard & soft crime) Identify effective crime fighting strategies, tactics, and resources to address those issues Ensure follow-up and assessment so that desired results are achieved and sustained, and successful strategies and tactics are replicated