A new poll shows a competitive race in Michigan's 11th Congressional district. Democrat Bobby Mckenzie trails Republican David Trott by only four percentage points. Democrats can pull ahead and win this district if they have the resources to define it.
A new poll shows a competitive race in Michigan's 11th Congressional district. Democrat Bobby Mckenzie trails Republican David Trott by only four percentage points. Democrats can pull ahead and win this district if they have the resources to define it.
Original Description:
Original Title
MI-11 Tulchin Research for Bobby McKenzie (Aug. 2014)
A new poll shows a competitive race in Michigan's 11th Congressional district. Democrat Bobby Mckenzie trails Republican David Trott by only four percentage points. Democrats can pull ahead and win this district if they have the resources to define it.
A new poll shows a competitive race in Michigan's 11th Congressional district. Democrat Bobby Mckenzie trails Republican David Trott by only four percentage points. Democrats can pull ahead and win this district if they have the resources to define it.
Re: Ben Tulchin, Ben Krompak and Kiel Brunner; Tulchin Research
Bobbys Clear Path to Victory Against Foreclosure King David Trott
Tulchin Research just completed a scientific telephone survey among likely general election 2014 voters in Michigans 11th Congressional district. The results indicate this is currently an extremely competitive race between Democrat Bobby Mckenzie and Republican David Trott in what is clearly a swing district. Furthermore, the survey shows McKenzie can pull ahead and win this district if he has the resources to properly define the race due to the fact that Trott already has high negatives from getting attacked in the primary for being Michigans Foreclosure King. This proves to be an enormous vulnerability for Trott that gives Democrats an opportunity to pick up this seat. We present the key findings from the poll in this memo.
Competitive District
This is a very competitive district and there are many data points demonstrating just how closely matched the two parties are in this suburban Detroit district.
Party identification is even (38% for Democrats, 39% for Republicans, 20% independent); The generic Congressional vote is statistically tied as the results fall well within the surveys margin of error as a Democrat narrowly trails a Republican by just three points (41% to 44%).
Democratic Performance in Michigans 11 th Congressional District Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Party Identification (self-reported, including leaners) 38% 39% -1 Generic Congressional Vote 41% 44% -3
Horserace for Michigans 11 th Congressional District
Our poll finds the Congressional horserace to be just as competitive as the partisan divide in the district. Specifically, Democrat Bobby Mckenzie garners 40 percent of the vote and trails Republican David Trott by only four percentage points, with the remaining 16 percent undecided. These results are a statistical tie as they are within the surveys margin of error, an impressive showing given the fact that Trott substantially outspent McKenzie in communicating to voters in the primary. Tulchin Research Poll Results Bobby McKenzie for MI-11 2
Once voters hear more information about both candidates, the race becomes even more competitive and McKenzie actually pulls into the lead. In fact, after voters are provided positive descriptions about McKenzie and Trott, McKenzie gains more ground than his Republican opponent and leapfrogs ahead, drawing 47 percent of the vote to 46 percent for Trott. After we simulate an attack on both candidates, Mckenzie further extends his lead to 48 percent to 41 percent, with only 11 percent of voters undecided.
Poll Finds Highly Competitive Race, McKenzie Moves to Lead
Initial Vote: McKenzie - Trott Revote After Positives Revote After Negatives on Both Candidates Bobby McKenzie 40% 47% 48% David Trott 44% 46% 41% Undecided 16% 8% 11% McKenzie - Trott -4 +1 +7
In sum, this poll finds that Bobby McKenzie is in a very competitive race against Republican Dave Trott in an evenly matched district. McKenzie starts off in a statistical tie and pulls ahead once voters hear more about both candidates. The poll shows that McKenzie has strong positives that resonate with voters while, conversely, Trott has a major liability as Michigans Foreclosure King. In fact, Trott spent $2.5 million promoting himself in the primary, most of which went to paid media and TV ads, while his opponents only spent $100,000 attacking him as the Foreclosure King. Yet, despite this 25-to-1 ratio, Trotts unfavorable rating is now higher than his favorables, indicating limited negative communication against Trott goes a long way. If the McKenzie campaign has the resources to get its message out, Democrats can pick up this closely divided district.
Survey Methodology: From August 20-24, 2014, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey among 500 likely November general election voters in Michigans 11 th Congressional district using live, professional interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.38 percentage points. Initial Horserace for Michigans 11 th Congressional District If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE) Bobby McKenzie, the Democrat, or Dave Trott, the Republican?