7-Extreme Storm Events in Northern Illinois

Extreme Storm Events
in Northern Illinois
Prepared by
Alan J. Hollenbeck, P.E., BCEE
Al Hollenbeck - P.E., BCEE

BS & MS in Civil Engineering - University of Illinois
President/CEO - RJN Group, Inc. Since 1994
37 Years Experience at RJN - Wastewater Collection
Systems
IWEA Collections Systems Committee Chairman
Water Environment Federation - National Collection
Systems Award
Over 100 Technical Papers - Wastewater Collection
Systems
Project Director - Major Metropolitan Area Sewer
System Rehabilitation Projects
MWRD ATP (Advisory Technical Panel) Member
Theres something happening here But what it is aint exactly clear...
August 13-14, 1987

9.5 Inches in 24 Hours at O'Hare
August 13-14, 1987

9.5 Inches in 24 Hours at O'Hare
Three Waves of Intense Rain
August 13-14, 1987

9.5 Inches in 24 Hours
at O'Hare
Three Waves of
Intense Rain
Large Area Exceeded
the 100-Year 12-Hour
Storm (6.6 Inches)
August 13-14, 1987

9.5 Inches in 24-Hours at O'Hare
Three Waves of Intense Rain
Large Area Exceeded the 100-Year 12Hour Storm (6.6 Inches)
Over $250 Million in Damages
July 17-18, 1996

Peak Intensities Concentrated in Southern
Kane, Northern Kendall Counties
(1,000-Year Storm?)
July 17-18, 1996

Peak Intensities
Concentrated in
Southern Kane,
Northern Kendall
Counties
Two Waves of
Storms
Flash Flooding Was
Severe, Estimated
Damage $645 Million
September 12-15, 2008

7.5 Inches in 24-Hours (3 Day Totals
Exceeded 10 Inches - 100-Year Storm)
September 12-15, 2008

7.5 Inches in 24
Hours (3 Day Totals
Exceeded 10 Inches)
Remnants of
Hurricane Ike
Majority of DuPage
and Cook County
Exceeded 6.0 Inches
(50-Year Storm)
June 23, 2010

4.5 Inches in 30 Minutes (> 100- Year Storm)
Straight Line, High Winds, Funnel Clouds, F1
Tornado - Park Forest
Storm Tracked
Northeast
Highest intensity in
Western, Southern
Suburbs
June 23, 2010
July 23-24, 2010

Just One Month Later!!
6.84 Inches in 12 Hours (> 100-Year
Storm)
Centered in DuPage
County, Heavy
Thunderstorms
for 6 Hours
July 23-24, 2010
July 23-24, 2010
July 23, 2011

Another New Record for
24-Hour Rainfall - 6.86
Inches 3 Hours (> 100-Year
Storm)
Heaviest Totals Near
OHare, Northwest Cook
County
Several Individuals
(CoCoRaHs) Reported
Over 7-Inches in 3 Hours in
Elk Grove Village, Des
Plaines, Arlington Heights
(Over 5.5-Inches in 2
Hours)
Widespread Power
Outages, Wind Damage,
Flooding
July 23, 2011
April 17-28, 2013

7.0 Inches in 18
Hours (> 100-Year
Storm)
Entire Metro Area
Exceeded 4.5 Inches
Heaviest Rainfall in
Eastern DuPage,
Northern Cook
Counties
April 17-28, 2013

7.0 Inches in 18 Hours (> 100-Year Storm)
Entire Metro Area Exceeded 4.5 Inches
Heaviest Rainfall in Eastern DuPage,
Northern Cook
Counties
Farmers Insurance
File Lawsuit
Against 98
Communities
April 17-28, 2013
Other Recent Extreme Events
Date
Location
Rainfall
Recurrence Internal/Duration
June 25,
2013
McHenry County
4.5 Inches
25-Year - 18-Hours
August 22,
2014
Northeast DuPage
County
4.5 Inches
50-Year - 30-Minute
Rainfall Statistics
Storm Duration
Period of time over which the peak intensity
of a storm occurred
Actual rainfall can be a shorter duration or a
longer duration
Rainfall Statistics
10-yr, 60-min. storm
Rainfall Statistics
Storm Recurrence Interval
Estimate of the likelihood over an extended time

period that a given amount of rain will fall over a
given storm duration
Based on historical data
Probability of occurrence is independent of
timing of recent events
Applicable to the location of the gauge site on
which statistics were based or
Applicable to spatially averaged rainfall statistics
from multiple gauges
Recent Storm Events - Elmhurst, Illinois
JulyJuly
23-24,
2010 2010
23-24,
6.846.84
in. - 12
in.hrs.
- 12 hrs.
April 17-18, 2013

6.98 in. - 18 hrs.
August 22, 2014

4.04 in. - 3 hrs.
Source: CBBEL Engineers, Inc.
Last 27 Years
500-Year = 1
100-Year = 4
50-Year = 1
Lake County Rainfall Return Intervals
Source: CBBEL Engineers, Inc.
Last 3 Years
50-Year = 1
10-Year = 2
5-Year =2
2014 - National Climate Assessment

Federal Advisory Committee / National
Academy of Sciences
Same Trends Observed 1958 - 2012
Statistical Timeline
1901
1901
1908
1901- Availability of Reliable Rainfall Data in

Illinois
Reasonable Starting Point
for Statistical Analysis
Only 4 Sites Statewide
1908
1901
1908
1908
Last Cubs World Series Championship!
Statistically More of an Extreme than
Storm Events
1935
1901
1908
1935
1935 US Department of Agriculture

Nationwide Analysis of 211
US Weather Bureau Rain
Gauge Sites

Nationwide Analysis of 211
US Weather
Bureau
Rain Gauge Sites
Analysis Period 18931933 (40 Years)
200 Gauges Nationwide
One Gauge in Chicago
Area
60-Minute 10-Year = 2.0
Inches

Nationwide Analysis of 211 US
Weather
Bureau Rain
Gauge Sites
Analysis Period 1893-1933
(40 Years)
One Gauge in Chicago Area
Inches
Inches

Nationwide Analysis of 211 US
Weather
Bureau Rain Gauge
Sites
Analysis Period 1893-1933 (40
Years)
One Gauge in Chicago Area
60-Minute 10-Year = 2.0 Inches
24-Hour 100-Year = 5.5 Inches
1950
1901
1908
1935
1950
1950 - US Weather Bureau TP25

Analysis Period 1905 - 1912 + 1926 1951 (33 Years)
1950 - US Weather Bureau TP25

Analysis Period 1905 -1912 + 1926 -1951
(33 Years)
1 Gauge in Chicago Area
1961
1901
1908
1935
1950
1961
1961 - US Weather Bureau

Technical Paper No. 40
1961- US Weather Bureau
Technical Paper No. 40

200 First Order Weather Bureau Stations
Average Period at Each Gauge = 48 Years
4 Gauges in Chicago Area
60-Minute 100-year = 2.75 Inches
1989
1901
1908
1935
1950
1961
1989
1989 Illinois State Water Survey

Bulletin 70 - Frequency Distributions of
Heavy Rainstorms in Illinois
1989 Illinois State Water Survey

Bulletin 70 - Frequency Distributions of
Heavy Rainstorms in Illinois
Analysis Period 1901-1984 (83 Years)
2004
1901
1908
1935
1950
1961
1989
2004
2004- National Oceanographic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Atlas 14 Volume 2
2004 - National Oceanographic and

Atlas 14 Volume 2
Average Length of Data Per Site = 63 Years
2004 - National Oceanographic and

Atlas 14 Volume 2
Average Length of Data
Per Site = 63 Years
8 Gauges in Chicago
Area
60-Minute 10-Year =
2.09 Inches
60-Minute 100-Year =
3.10 Inches
24-Hour 100-Year =
7.18 Inches
The Bar Has Moved Over Time

Not Much Change for Less than 10-Year
Recurrence Interval
Significant Change for High Recurrence
Intervals (Extreme Events)
Northeastern Illinois Severe Storms

60 Minute
10 Year
60 Minute
100 Year
24 Hour
100 Year
1935 - USDOA
2.10
2.80
5.50
1950 - Weather
Bureau TP25
2.10
3.00
5.30
1961 - Weather
Bureau TP40
1.90
2.75
5.75
1989 - ISWS
Bulletin 70
2.10
3.56
7.58
2014 - NOAA
2.09
3.10
7.22
% Increase 1935
to 1989
0%
19%
38%
Year/Source
The Bar Has Moved Over Time
What Else Aint Exactly Clear?

Tippy-bucket Rain Gauges Under
Record Intense Events
NEXRAD Radar Rainfall Systems Are
Finding More Localized Intense Storms
Tipping-bucket Rain Gauges

2000 Laboratory Calibration by Royal
Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Average Tipping-bucket Gauge Tested
Under Recorded Rain Intensity as
Follows:
Peak Intensity Inches/Hour
Average % Under Recorded
1.97
2%
3.9
5%
7.86
8%
11.8
12%
Tipping-bucket Rain Gauges

25-Year 30-Minute Storm is 3.8
Inches/Hour ( 5% under recording error)
Causes - Debris in Mechanism
Water Loss During Fast Tipping
NEXRAD Radar Rainfall Systems

Based on national Weather Service WSR88D Doppler Rainfall Images - NEXRAD
Raw NEXRAD Data Is Post-processed to
Generate Digital Rainfall Intensity
Must Be Calibrated with Ground Gauges
Resolution Down to (1 Square Kilometer
0.4 Square Miles)
Captures Small Intense Cells Between
Ground Gauges
Radar Derived Rainfall
Why So Many Intense Storms Lately?

Urbanization May Have Changed Our
Climate?
They Have Always Occurred, We Just
Missed Them Due to Fewer Gauges in
Place?
Global Warming / Climate Change?
Last 10 Years Is a Blip,
It Will Not Continue
Post World War 2 Effect?

Ratio of Rainfall Intensities
(1941-1980) Versus (1901-1940)
24-Hour Duration 2 Year
Frequency
Impact of Urbanization on Intense

Rainfall
Location of Changed Rainfall Patterns
Options for Describing Intense Storms

Recurrence Interval Only
100-Year Storm
Recurrence Interval Plus Probability of Occurrence

100-Year Storm with probability of occurrence of 1%
every year
Storm of Record or Design Storm Duration and

Total Rainfall
5.5 inches, 24-hour duration
2.5 Inches, 1-hour duration
Intense Storm Severity Rating

1 - 10 scale
Recurrence Interval Approach

Statistics Result in Moving Target Over
Time
Losing Credibility with the Public/Elected
Officials
Are We Under Sizing New Infrastructure
and Improvements?
Options for Describing Intense Storms

Recurrence Interval Only
100-Year Storm
Recurrence Interval Plus Probability of Occurrence

100-Year Storm with probability of occurrence of 1%
every year
Storm of Record or Design Storm Duration and

Total Rainfall
5.5 inches, 24-hour duration
2.5 Inches, 1-hour duration
Intense Storm Severity Rating

1 - 10 scale
Extreme Storm Severity Classification

1-10 Severity Rating Not Tied to
Probability of Occurrence
1 to 2 - Minor
7 to 8 - Extreme
3 to 4 - Moderate
9 to 10 Catastrophic
5 to 6 - Major
Similar to
Earthquakes - Richter Scale (0 - 9+)
Tornadoes - Fujita (F0 to F5)
Hurricanes - Shirr - Simpson (Categories 1 to 5)
So Whats the So What in All This?
Design Parameters
Existing Levels of Protection
Cost / Benefit Analysis
Communication with the Public
Funding of Infrastructure Improvements
Questions?

7-Extreme Storm Events in Northern Illinois

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Extreme Storm Events

Al Hollenbeck - P.E., BCEE

Theres something happening here But what it is aint exactly clear...

August 13-14, 1987

August 13-14, 1987

August 13-14, 1987

August 13-14, 1987

July 17-18, 1996

July 17-18, 1996

September 12-15, 2008

September 12-15, 2008

June 23, 2010

June 23, 2010

July 23-24, 2010

July 23-24, 2010

July 23-24, 2010

July 23, 2011

July 23, 2011

April 17-28, 2013

April 17-28, 2013

April 17-28, 2013

Other Recent Extreme Events

Estimate of the likelihood over an extended time

Recent Storm Events - Elmhurst, Illinois

April 17-18, 2013

August 22, 2014

Source: CBBEL Engineers, Inc.

Lake County Rainfall Return Intervals

Source: CBBEL Engineers, Inc.

2014 - National Climate Assessment

1901- Availability of Reliable Rainfall Data in

1935 US Department of Agriculture

1935 US Department of Agriculture

1935 US Department of Agriculture

1935 US Department of Agriculture

1950 - US Weather Bureau TP25

1950 - US Weather Bureau TP25

1961 - US Weather Bureau

1961- US Weather Bureau

Technical Paper No. 40

1989 Illinois State Water Survey

1989 Illinois State Water Survey

2004- National Oceanographic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

2004 - National Oceanographic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

2004 - National Oceanographic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

The Bar Has Moved Over Time

Northeastern Illinois Severe Storms

The Bar Has Moved Over Time

What Else Aint Exactly Clear?

Tipping-bucket Rain Gauges

Average % Under Recorded

Tipping-bucket Rain Gauges

NEXRAD Radar Rainfall Systems

Radar Derived Rainfall

Why So Many Intense Storms Lately?

Post World War 2 Effect?

Impact of Urbanization on Intense