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CFR - AmStillUnprep
CFR - AmStillUnprep
Stephen E. Flynn,
Project Director
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TASK FORCE MEMBERS
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CONTENTS
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
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FOREWORD
Attacks against Americans on U.S. soil that may involve weapons of mass destruction are likely,
but the structures and strategies to respond to this serious threat are fragmented and inadequate.
So warned the U.S. Commission on National Security led by former Senators Gary Hart and
Warren Rudman in their final report released on March 15, 2001. Hardly anyone in Washington
or the mainstream media paid any attention. They should not make the same mistake twice by
overlooking the key finding from this Task Force report, again co-chaired by Senators Hart and
Rudman: “A year after September 11, America remains dangerously unprepared to prevent and
respond to a catastrophic terrorist attack on U.S. soil.”
This chilling conclusion comes on the eve of what now appears to be a pending war with
Iraq to dethrone Saddam Hussein. It was arrived at by a bipartisan group that includes two
former secretaries of state, two former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a former director of
the CIA and FBI, and some of the nation’s most distinguished financial, legal, and medical
authorities. Of the dozens of Independent Task Forces that have been assembled during my
decade-long tenure as president of the Council on Foreign Relations, no report has been so
timely or important.
Around the anniversary of September 11, we were saturated with one-year retrospectives.
If there are Americans on Main Street or in the halls of government who have concluded that it is
now time to get back to our “normal” lives, this report is mandatory reading. As the Task Force
participants conclude, we are entering a time of especially grave danger. We are preparing to
attack a ruthless adversary who may well have access to weapons of mass destruction. Yet we
will not see the full effect of many of the post–September 11 initiatives undertaken by the
president, Congress, governors, and mayors for some time. This is no one’s fault. It simply
reflects the fact that you cannot turn a nation as large and complex as this one on a dime.
Still, given the stakes—potentially the loss of thousands of innocent American lives and
the mass disruption of America’s economy and society—there are things we must be doing on an
emergency basis to reduce our vulnerabilities here at home. Let me stress that the Task Force
report does all this without thinking about or placing political blame for what has not been done
to prepare our nation against terror attacks. The Task Force was conceived and dedicated to
creating a necessary sense of urgency and to helping get the necessary things done. This Task
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Force lays out a series of recommendations that should help guide the nation’s efforts in the
weeks and months ahead.
My deepest appreciation and admiration go to Senators Warren Rudman and Gary Hart
for agreeing to lead this Task Force. The Council and the nation owe a debt to them and all the
distinguished Task Force members who brought their vast and diverse professional expertise to
this enterprise. They selflessly agreed to serve on very short notice to prepare this report with the
same sense of urgency that our current circumstances clearly warrant. On a personal note, having
served with the two formidable former senators on their National Security Commission, I can
think of no more qualified people to take on this responsibility. My thanks also go to Council
senior fellow Stephen Flynn, who served as project director, lending his considerable expertise,
draftsmanship, and independence of thought to crafting and informing what follows. He was
very ably assisted by the Council’s Army military fellow, Colonel (P) Sal Cambria, and research
associates Rob Knake and Uday Ram.
This Task Force has made an outstanding contribution to informing how we should
proceed in the post–September 11 security environment. Shame on us if we do not pay heed both
to the warning and wisdom of what is outlined on the pages that follow.
Leslie H. Gelb
President
Council on Foreign Relations
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
When Les Gelb approached me in late July with the proposal that I serve as project director for
an Independent Task Force on Homeland Security Imperatives, I voiced some trepidation. His
aim was for the Task Force to operate essentially on a wartime footing—something our
homefront rightfully should be on, given the likelihood of a second catastrophic terrorist attack
more deadly and disruptive than what we suffered on September 11, 2001. I wondered aloud if
we could assemble a blue-ribbon task force with just a couple of weeks notice and demand so
much of their time and energy in the following sixty-day period. As soon as he told me that
Senator Warren Rudman and Senator Gary Hart had agreed to co-chair the Task Force, my
doubts evaporated. I had the privilege to serve with them while they were at the helm of the now
famous Hart-Rudman U.S. Commission on National Security. There could be no better chairs for
this initiative as events over the ensuing weeks proved. I count it as a highlight of my
professional career to have again been afforded the opportunity to work with them.
I have drawn added inspiration from the generosity of intellect, wisdom, and time of all
our distinguished Task Force members. What a special experience it has been to be a part of an
enterprise with these most extraordinary Americans. Secretary George Shultz, Secretary Warren
Christopher, General John Vessey, Admiral William Crowe, General Charles Boyd, Judge
William Webster, Dr. Joshua Lederberg, Dr. Harold Varmus, Dr. Steven Weinberg, Dean Ann-
Marie Slaughter, Mr. Phillip Odeen, Mr. Donald Marron, Mr. Stephen Friedman, and Mr. James
Kallstrom—thank you for your grace and responsiveness in the face of draconian deadlines, and
a steady stream of late night e-mails, faxes, and phone calls.
My debt to Les Gelb extends beyond his affording me the opportunity to serve as project
director—he also made every possible Council resource available to support me. He was
instrumental in sharpening the focus, structure, and language of the initial concept paper that got
us launched. Most importantly he assigned my colleague, Colonel (P) Sal Cambria, to serve as
the Task Force coordinator. Colonel (P) Cambria has flawlessly tended to the innumerable
details to get the Task Force from its starting point to the finish line. Finally, I have received
extraordinary research support from two of the Council’s brightest and most energetic research
associates, Rob Knake and Uday Ram. In short, if this Task Force report misses the mark in
contributing substantively to the national conversation on this vital issue, the responsibility lies
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completely with me since no project director has been afforded more ingredients for potential
success.
Stephen E. Flynn
Project Director
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
“When you see the multiple attacks that you’ve seen occur around the world, from Bali
to Kuwait, the number of failed attacks that have been attempted, the various messages
that have been issued by senior al-Qaeda leaders, you must make the assumption that
al-Qaeda is in an execution phase and intends to strike us both here and overseas;
that’s unambiguous as far as I am concerned.”
—George Tenet, Director, Central Intelligence
Testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, October 17, 2002
A year after September 11, 2001, America remains dangerously unprepared to prevent and
respond to a catastrophic terrorist attack on U.S. soil. In all likelihood, the next attack will result
in even greater casualties and widespread disruption to American lives and the economy. The
need for immediate action is made more urgent by the prospect of the United States going to war
with Iraq and the possibility that Saddam Hussein might threaten the use of weapons of mass
destruction (WMD) in America.
The Task Force recognizes that important and generally salutary measures have been
undertaken since September 11 to respond to the risk of catastrophic terrorism, including
pending legislation to create the Department of Homeland Security, which should be enacted on
an urgent basis. Yet, there is still cause for concern. After a year without a new attack, there are
already signs that Americans are lapsing back into complacency. Also, a war with Iraq could
consume virtually all the nation’s attention and command the bulk of the available resources.
President Bush has declared that combating terrorism requires a war on two fronts—at home and
abroad. The Task Force believes the nation should respond accordingly. It outlines a number of
homeland security priorities that should be pursued with the same sense of urgency and national
purpose as our overseas exertions.
Among the risks that the United States still confronts:
• 650,000 local and state police officials continue to operate in a virtual intelligence
vacuum, without access to terrorist watch lists provided by the U.S. Department of
State to immigration and consular officials.
• While 50,000 federal screeners are being hired at the nation’s airports to check
passengers, only the tiniest percentage of containers, ships, trucks, and trains that
enter the United States each day are subject to examination—and a weapon of mass
destruction could well be hidden among this cargo. Should the maritime or surface
elements of America’s global transportation system be used as a weapon delivery
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device, the response right now would almost certainly be to shut the system down at
an enormous cost to the economies of the United States and its trade partners.
• First responders—police, fire, emergency medical technician personnel—are not
prepared for a chemical or biological attack. Their radios cannot communicate with
one another, and they lack the training and protective gear to protect themselves and
the public in an emergency. The consequence of this could be the unnecessary loss of
thousands of American lives.
• America’s own ill-prepared response could hurt its people to a much greater extent
than any single attack by a terrorist. America is a powerful and resilient nation, and
terrorists are not supermen. But the risk of self-inflicted harm to America’s liberties
and way of life is greatest during and immediately following a national trauma.
• An adversary intent on disrupting America’s reliance on energy need not target oil
fields in the Middle East. The homeland infrastructure for refining and distributing
energy to support the daily lives of Americans remains largely unprotected to
sabotage.
• While the overwhelming majority of the nation’s critical infrastructure is owned and
operated by the private sector, significant legal barriers remain to forging effective
private-public partnerships on homeland security issues. These include potential
antitrust conflicts, concerns about the public release of sensitive security information
by way of the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), and liability exposure.
• Domestic security measures must be pursued within an international context. The
critical infrastructures that support the daily lives of Americans are linked to global
networks. Efforts to protect these systems will fail unless they are pursued abroad as
well as at home.
• The National Guard is currently equipped and trained primarily for carrying out its
role in supporting conventional combat units overseas. The homeland security
mission can draw on many of these capabilities but it requires added emphasis on
bolstering the capacity of National Guard units to respond to biological attacks;
acquiring protection, detection, and other equipment that is tailored for complex
urban environments; and special training to provide civil support in the aftermath of a
large-scale catastrophic attack.
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KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
• Empower front-line agents to intercept terrorists by establishing a twenty-four–hour
operations center in each state that can provide access to terrorist watch list information
via real time intergovernmental links between local and federal law enforcement.
• Make first responders ready to respond by immediately providing federal funds to clear
the backlog of requests for protective gear, training, and communications equipment.
State and local budgets cannot bankroll these necessities in the near term.
• Recalibrate the agenda for transportation security; the vulnerabilities are greater and the
stakes are higher in the sea and land modes than in commercial aviation. Systems such as
those used in the aviation sector, which start from the assumption that every passenger
and every bag of luggage poses an equal risk, must give way to more intelligence-driven
and layered security approaches that emphasize prescreening and monitoring based on
risk-criteria.
• Fund energy distribution vulnerability assessments to be completed in no more than six
months, fund a stockpile of modular backup components to quickly restore the operation
of the energy grid should it be targeted, and work with Canada to put in place adequate
security measures for binational pipelines.
• Strengthen the capacity of local, state, and federal public heath and agricultural agencies
to detect and conduct disease outbreak investigations. The key to mitigating casualties
associated with a biological attack against people or the food supply is to identify the
source of infection as early as possible.
• Enact an “Omnibus Anti-Red Tape” law with a two-year sunset clause for approved
private-public homeland security task forces to include: (1) a fast-track security clearance
process that permits the sharing of “secret-level” classified information with non-federal
and industry leaders; (2) a FOIA exemption in instances when critical infrastructure
industry leaders agree to share information about their security vulnerabilities with
federal agencies; (3) an exemption of private participants in these task forces from
antitrust rules; (4) homeland security appropriations to be managed under the more liberal
rules governing research and development programs in the Department of Defense rather
than the normal Federal Acquisition Rules; and (5) liability safeguards and limits.
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• Fund, equip, and train National Guard units around the country to ensure they can support
the new state homeland security plans under development by each governor. Also, triple
the number of National Guard Weapons of Mass Destruction Support Teams from
twenty-two to sixty-six.
Quickly mobilizing the nation to prepare for the worst is an act of prudence, not fatalism. In
the twenty-first century, security and liberty are inseparable. The absence of adequate security
elevates the risk that laws will be passed immediately in the wake of surprise terrorist attacks that
will be reactive, not deliberative. Predictably, the consequence will be to compound the initial
harm incurred by a tragic event with measures that overreach in terms of imposing costly new
security mandates and the assumption of new government authorities that may erode our
freedoms. Accordingly, aggressively pursuing America’s homeland security imperatives quickly
and immediately may well be the most important thing we can do to sustain America’s cherished
freedoms for future generations.
Preparedness at home plays a critical role in combating terrorism by reducing its appeal as an
effective means of warfare. Acts of catastrophic terrorism produce not only deaths and physical
destruction but also societal and economic disruption. Thus, as important as it is to try and attack
terrorist organizations overseas and isolate those who support them, it is equally important to
eliminate the incentive for undertaking these acts in the first place. By sharply reducing, if not
eliminating, the disruptive effects of terrorism, America’s adversaries may be deterred from
taking their battles to the streets of the American homeland.
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TASK FORCE REPORT
INTRODUCTION
A year after September 11, 2001, America remains dangerously unprepared to prevent and
respond to a catastrophic terrorist attack on U.S. soil. In all likelihood, the next attack will result
in even greater casualties and widespread disruption to American lives and the economy. The
need for immediate action is made more urgent by the prospect of the United States going to war
with Iraq and the possibility that Saddam Hussein might threaten the use of weapons of mass
destruction in America.
This report’s recommendations are intended to focus the nation on what must be done on an
emergency basis to prevent attacks and to limit the consequences of these attacks should U.S.
prevention efforts fail. The Bush administration, Congress, governors, and mayors around the
country have taken important measures since September 11 to respond to the risk of catastrophic
terrorism. Legislation creating the Department of Homeland Security should be enacted on an
urgent basis, and initiatives to improve U.S. intelligence operations must go forward. But the
United States will not see the full effect of these fundamental changes for several years. In the
meantime Americans cannot afford to become complacent. Our enemies are not idle.
The Task Force identified six critical mandates that deserve the nation’s immediate
attention:
• Empower front-line agents to prevent terrorist attacks and make first responders ready to
respond; 650,000 local and state law enforcement officers are operating in a
counterterrorism information vacuum, and first responders are not nearly ready enough to
respond to catastrophic events.
• Make trade security a global priority; the system for moving goods affordably and
reliably around the world is ripe for exploitation and vulnerable to mass disruption by
terrorists.
• Set critical infrastructure protection priorities; some potential targets pose a graver risk
for mass disruption than others.
• Enhance America’s public health system so that it is able to quickly detect and respond to
biological attacks.
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• Move quickly to clear federal obstacles to forging effective private-public security
partnerships by addressing industry concerns with respect to potential antitrust conflicts,
public release of sensitive security information by way of the FOIA, and liability
exposure.
• Fund, train, and equip the National Guard to make homeland security a primary mission.
The nation must accept three facts of life after September 11. First, America is in a war against
terrorists who want to attack its homeland, and it must act urgently to reduce its most serious
vulnerabilities. Second, bolstering America’s emergency preparedness in the near term is
essential to minimizing casualties when an incident occurs on U.S. soil. Third, America’s own
ill-prepared response can do more damage to its citizens than any single attack by a terrorist.
America is a powerful and resilient nation, and terrorists are not supermen. But the risk of self-
inflicted harm to America’s liberties and way of life is greatest during and immediately
following a national trauma. Accordingly, preparing for the worst is an essential investment in
preserving America at its best.
On September 11 we witnessed how warfare will likely be conducted against the United
States for the foreseeable future. Prudence requires we assume America’s adversaries, including
Saddam Hussein, have learned from the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, as
well as the anthrax mailings, the extent to which the U.S. homeland is unprotected. They will
also have observed that relatively low-cost terrorist operations directed at civilian targets can
inflict extensive damage and profound disruption. In short, as long as catastrophic attacks are
likely to yield tangible results in undermining America’s economy and way of life, undertaking
these attacks will be attractive to those who regard America as their enemy.
The Task Force identified several overarching considerations that should guide the
nation’s approach to homeland security.
Homeland security measures have deterrence value: U.S. counterterrorism initiatives abroad can
be reinforced by making the U.S. homeland a less tempting target. We can transform the
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calculations of would-be terrorists by elevating the risk that (1) an attack on the United States
will fail, and (2) the disruptive consequences of a successful attack will be minimal. It is
especially critical that we bolster this deterrent now since an inevitable consequence of the U.S.
government’s stepped-up military and diplomatic exertions will be to elevate the incentive to
strike back before these efforts have their desired effect.
Federalism is a major asset: Given the size and complexity of the American society, there are no
“one-size-fits-all” approaches to addressing the nation’s most serious homeland vulnerabilities.
Private sector leaders and local authorities who are most familiar with those vulnerabilities will
generally have the best insights on the most effective solutions. National coordination, resource
support, and leadership by the federal government are all essential. But encouraging the capacity
for states, localities, and the private sector to experiment and to be flexible in adapting to local
and regional circumstances will ensure that our nation’s approach to homeland security will be as
dynamic as the threat that confronts us.
Domestic security measures must be pursued within an international context: The critical
infrastructures that support the activities of our daily lives are linked to global networks. For
example, the Northeast is dependent on electrical power generated in Quebec, and much of the
natural gas used to fuel the power plants on the West Coast originates in the western provinces of
Canada. Computer viruses such as the “Love Bug” know no boundaries as they cascade around
the Internet at the speed of light. Many of the goods that fill America’s stores originate from far
flung corners of the globe and arrive at U.S. borders in massive volumes via an extremely
efficient and low-cost land, sea, and air transportation system. Efforts to protect these systems
will fail unless they are pursued abroad as well as at home. The State Department, Treasury
Department, Commerce Department, and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative all have a
critical role to play in making sure that our allies and trade partners work with us to ensure a
collective approach to protecting critical infrastructures as we did with the Year 2000 (Y2K)
computer challenge.
Proceed with caution when embracing technological security “fixes”: Technology can often
serve as an enabler, but it must belong to a layered and dynamic system of defense that
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incorporates the contribution of human intuition and judgment. Any proposed technological
“solution” must be evaluated against the costs and consequences if it should be compromised. In
the end, security is not just about protecting American lives. It is also about sustaining systems
that support our way of life in the face of designs to exploit or target those systems. This means
that the security protocol must be able to manage any suspected or real terrorist breach without
imposing costs so high as to compromise the very network it is designed to secure. Ultimately,
the end game must be to continue to live and prosper as an open, globally engaged society, not to
become a nation trapped behind the modern versions of moats and castles.
Emergency preparedness can save lives—potentially a lot of lives: During the Cold War, the
prevailing view among most Americans was that civil defense measures were futile—even self-
defeating. Nuclear war was viewed as Armageddon, and preparations to survive a nuclear strike
were seen as making nuclear war more probable because they eroded the presumed deterrence
value of the “balance of terror.” The contemporary security environment mandates that we put
this anti–civil defense bias behind us. America’s ability to strike back with devastating force will
not deter terrorists. Meanwhile a nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon poses a grave danger
not only to those who are immediately exposed, but also to the entire emergency response and
medical care system in the areas where such a weapon might be used. Heavy losses of seasoned
firefighters, emergency technicians, police, and medical personnel can easily compromise a
community’s long-term capacity to provide for public health and safety.
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Homeland security measures will almost always have derivative benefits for other public and
private goods: Terrorists may acquire a weapon of mass destruction, but they will not have
unlimited access to these weapons. Consequently, they have to be selective about where, when,
and how they will carry out an attack. No mayor or industry leader will want to be caught
unprepared if his/her city or critical infrastructure is targeted. But making a case for investing in
security safeguards for low probability/high consequence events can be a hard sell to a tax-wary
populace or CEOs under pressure to guard the bottom line.
Fortunately, many appropriate measures enacted to prevent and mitigate the
consequences of a terrorist attack have other benefits. Bolstering the tools to detect and intercept
terrorists will enhance the means authorities have to combat criminal acts like cargo theft,
violations of export controls, and narcotics- and migrant-smuggling. The tools used to save lives
and property in the wake of a catastrophic terrorist act are largely the same as those that would
be used in the event of a tragic industrial or transportation accident or natural disaster. As a
result, some of the costs may be offset by reduced losses and lower insurance rates. Public health
investments will inevitably provide the United States with more effective tools to manage the
rising incidence of global diseases and pandemics. In short, sustaining support for actions to
confront the new security environment may not be as difficult as it first appears because many of
these measures can tangibly improve the quality of life for our society as well.
The Task Force recognizes that many useful initiatives are now underway that will advance
homeland security. The case for establishing a new Department of Homeland Security is a
compelling one, and legislation to create this department should be enacted without delay. The
National Strategy for Homeland Security released by the White House on July 16, 2002, makes a
salutary effort to frame this complex mission and to sketch out priorities. Equally commendable
is the extent to which the strategy recognizes the importance of bolstering intelligence and
warning systems, improving border and transportation security, enhancing domestic
counterterrorism, protecting critical infrastructure and key assets, defending against catastrophic
threats, and improving emergency preparedness and response.
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In addition to reviewing the president’s new strategy, the Task Force reviewed other recent
contributions to the homeland security dialogue, most notably the National Academies’ June 30,
2002, report Making the Nation Safer.
In selecting the imperatives on which to focus, the Task Force decided to place its emphasis
on issues that satisfied the following three criteria:
(1) the potential consequences of neglecting the imperative area are serious and well-
documented;
(2) the recommendations for addressing the imperative can be acted upon quickly; but
(3) these recommendations are not being pursued on an emergency basis.
The six critical mandates summarized above and detailed in the following sections represent
only a portion of the homeland security agenda for our nation. There are other issues that we
examined and judged to be very important but decided the measures to address them were
adequate. For example, the president’s Critical Infrastructure Protection Board—created in
October 2001—recently released a draft National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace for public
comment. This plan—developed by a private-public partnership involving corporate and
nongovernmental organizations—outlines a comprehensive strategy to protect against the
disruption of the complex, interdependent network of critical infrastructure information systems
that is essential to America’s national and economic security.
Other issues require much more study before government actions should be taken on an
expedited basis. For instance, preventive vaccinations of the general population against diseases
like smallpox may be harmful and even fatal for a small percentage of healthy people and are not
presently an option for the millions of Americans with weakened immune systems. In short, the
Task Force’s list is inevitably an incomplete one. Nonetheless, the Task Force believes that
acting on the critical issues targeted in this report with the kind of urgency our wartime footing
mandates would contribute significantly to U.S. security in the months and years ahead. The
nation’s leaders in Washington, state capitals, counties, city halls, and boardrooms should be
working overtime to address them—right now.
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ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS
1. TAP THE EYES AND EARS OF LOCAL AND STATE LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS IN PREVENTING
ATTACKS; MAKE FIRST RESPONDERS READY TO RESPOND.
“Today, we are fighting a different kind of war—on two fronts. One front is
Afghanistan, where we have the best technology, the best equipment, the best
intelligence being sent right to the front, and no expense is spared. But for the first time
in nearly 200 years, the second front is right here at home. And to date, it’s where we’ve
seen the greatest loss of life. Yet we have insufficient equipment, too little training, and
a lack of intelligence sharing with federal authorities.”
—Martin O’Malley, Mayor of Baltimore, April 10, 2002
There are an estimated 8.5 million illegal aliens living in the United States, including nearly
300,000 fugitive aliens who have opted for life as a fugitive rather than submitting to a final
order of deportation. Stowaways arriving in U.S. ports and jumping ship are almost a daily
occurrence. These illegal migrants find it easy to blend in among the tens of millions of
foreigners who arrive legally in the United States each year to travel, study, or work.
Compounding the problem is widespread trafficking in forged or fraudulently obtained passports,
licenses, and other identification documents. Baseline documents such as social security cards,
birth certificates, and driver’s licenses are particularly subject to abuse.
With just fifty-six field offices around the nation, the burden of identifying and intercepting
terrorists in our midst is a task well beyond the scope of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
This burden could and should be shared with 650,000 local, county, and state law enforcement
officers, but they clearly cannot lend a hand in a counterterrorism information void.
When it comes to combating terrorism, the police officers on the beat are effectively
operating deaf, dumb, and blind. Terrorist watch lists provided by the U.S. Department of State
to immigration and consular officials are still out of bounds for state and local police. In the
interim period as information sharing issues get worked out, known terrorists will be free to
move about to plan and execute their attacks. And if a catastrophic terrorist attack occurred
today, emergency first responders—police, firefighters, and emergency medical personnel—in
most of the nation’s cities and counties are no better prepared to react now than they were prior
to September 11. The tools of emergency preparedness are in very short supply. For instance,
according to a survey done by the U.S. Conference of Mayors earlier this year:
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• 79% of mayors reported a funding shortfall for necessary threat detection equipment;
77% for emergency response equipment; and 69% for personal protective apparel.
• 86% said they did not have adequate personal protective apparel and only 10% were
satisfied with the protective equipment they had in the event of a biological attack."
COMMUNICATIONS
In virtually every major city and county in the United States, no interoperable
communications system exists to support police, fire departments, and county, state, regional,
and federal response personnel during a major emergency. Radio frequencies are not available to
support the post–incident communication demands that will be placed on them, and most cities
have no redundant systems to use as backups. Portable radios will not work in high-rise buildings
unless the buildings are equipped with repeater systems. Most U.S. cities have separate
command-and-control functions for their police and fire departments, and little to no
coordination exists between the two organizations. Furthermore, with few exceptions, first-
responder commanders do not have access to secure radios, telephones, or video-conferencing
capabilities that can support communications with county, state, and federal emergency
preparedness officials or National Guard leaders.
PROTECTIVE GEAR
In the event of a chemical attack, a window of a few minutes to two hours exists to respond
to the incident before morbidity and mortality rates skyrocket. Yet protective gear is often
available only to a few specialized incident response teams. Most communities will run short of
even the most basic emergency response resources (e.g., life-saving equipment, personal
protection suits, oxygen, respirators, etc.) in six hours. Federal agency response teams can help
but they will invariably arrive too late (i.e., no earlier then twelve hours after the attack).
DETECTION EQUIPMENT
Portable and hand-held detection equipment for highly explosive, chemical, biological, and
radiological materials is in short supply and notoriously unreliable in urban environments.
Department of Defense and Department of Energy sensors deployed to local first responders
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have been issued without adequate personnel training on use and maintenance of the equipment,
or guidance on what to do should the detection equipment register an alarm.
TRAINING
Major field exercises are important tools to test the adequacy of contingency plans,
equipment, command-and-control procedures, and training. In all but America’s largest cities,
there is a paucity of resources and expertise to organize and conduct these large scale exercises.
For example, from 1996 to 1999, the federal government was able to provide WMD response
training to only 134,000 of the nation’s estimated nine million first responders. Furthermore,
only two percent of these 134,000 responders received hands-on training with live chemical
agents. The Center for Domestic Preparedness in Anniston, Alabama, is the only facility in the
nation where first responders can train with and gain first-hand knowledge of chemical agents.
At peak capacity, it can train only 10,000 responders per year.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Our nation would not send its armed forces into harm’s way without outfitting them with the
right tools and skills. Our first responders and local law enforcement officers deserve the same
investment—their lives and our lives depend on it. Therefore, the Task Force makes the
following recommendations:
• Establish a twenty-four–hour operations center in each state that can provide a real
time intergovernmental link between local and federal law enforcement. Field-level
police would contact this center when they apprehend suspects to receive a red or
green light to hold or release them based on a check of federal and Interpol databases.
• Step up efforts to rein in identity fraud by strengthening the anti-counterfeit
safeguards in state driver’s licenses and passports, passing state laws criminalizing
identity theft, and mobilizing 120-day joint local, state, and federal agency task forces
to investigate and target phony identification traffickers.
• Provide grants for states and cities to hire retired first responders on ninety-day
renewable contracts to conduct comprehensive assessments on the status of urban
emergency preparedness, including the state of protective gear, communications plans
and equipment, and the availability of chemical antidotes.
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• Fund the backlog of protective equipment and training requests by urban fire
departments. This is a case where an immediate infusion of resources can make an
immediate difference in reducing the risks to first responders and the morbidity and
mortality of incident victims.
• Fund and deploy commercial off-the-shelf technologies that can integrate multiple
radio platforms to support interoperable communications, including the ability to
coordinate the flow of voice, image, and electronic information among responding
agencies.
• Provide the national research labs with adequate funding to develop, field-test, and
widely distribute new portable and hand-held sensor equipment suitable for urban
environments.
• Ensure that the distribution of new technologies to first responders is supported by
training and long-term maintenance contracts.
• The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Guard
should collaborate with state and local officials to deploy threat-based simulation
models and training modules to support local emergency operations center training.
WMD field exercises should be funded in all the nation’s major urban areas over the
next eighteen months. Senior police and fire officials from smaller cities and
localities should be included in these exercises.
“There is virtually no security for what is the primary system to transport global trade.
The consequence of a terrorist incident using a container would be profound. . . If
terrorists used a sea container to conceal a weapon of mass destruction and detonated it
on arrival at a port, the impact on global trade and the global economy could be
immediate and devastating—all nations would be affected. No container ships would be
allowed to unload at U.S. ports after such an event.”
—Robert Bonner, Commissioner, U.S. Customs Service, August 26, 2002
Immediately following the September 11 attacks, federal authorities ordered the closing of U.S.
airspace to all flights, both foreign and domestic, shut down the nation’s major seaports, and
slowed truck, automobile, and pedestrian traffic across the land borders with Canada and Mexico
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to a trickle. Nineteen men wielding box-cutters forced the United States to do to itself what no
adversary could ever accomplish: a successful blockade of the U.S. economy. If a surprise
terrorist attack were to happen tomorrow involving the sea, rail, or truck transportation systems
that carry millions of tons of trade to the United States each day, the response would likely be the
same—a self-imposed global embargo.
VULNERABLE SEAPORTS
Ninety-five percent of all non-North American U.S. trade moves by sea and arrives in 361
ports around the nation. Despite the vital role seaports play in linking America to the world, both
economically and militarily, port vulnerability studies for the nation’s fifty largest ports are not
scheduled to be completed for five more years. Over the past few decades, container traffic and
energy imports increasingly have been concentrated in just a handful of ports, making them
inviting targets. For instance, forty-three percent of all the maritime containers that arrived in the
United States in 2001 came through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. As the recent
West Coast port closures demonstrated, the cost to the economy of closing these ports totals
approximately $1 billion per day for the first five days, rising exponentially thereafter. Nearly
one-quarter of all of California’s imported crude oil is offloaded in one geographically confined
area. A USS Cole–style incident involving a ship offloading at that locale could leave Southern
California without refined fuels within just a few days. The American Association of Port
Authorities estimates the cost of adequate physical security at the nation’s commercial seaports
to be $2 billion. So far only $92.3 million in federal grants have been authorized and approved.
Even then, the grants have not been awarded on the basis of a port’s relative importance to the
nation. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach requested $70 million in post–September 11
grants and were awarded just $6.175 million. The adequacy of such grant levels needs urgent
reexamination.
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40’ container costs on average $2,500 to build and holds up to thirty tons of freight. The cost of
the ocean voyage for a full container from Europe or Asia is approximately $1,500. There are no
required security standards governing the loading or transport of an intermodal container. Most
are “sealed” with a numbered fifty-cent, lead tag.
If an explosive device was loaded in a container and set off in a port, it would almost
automatically raise concern about the integrity of the 21,000 containers that arrive in U.S. ports
each day and the many thousands more that arrive by truck and rail across U.S. land borders. A
three-to-four-week closure of U.S. ports would bring the global container industry to its knees.
Mega-ports like Rotterdam and Singapore would have to close their gates to prevent boxes from
piling up on their limited pier space. Trucks, trains, and barges would be stranded outside the
terminals with no way to unload their boxes. Boxes bound for the United States would have to be
unloaded from their outbound ships. Service contracts would need to be renegotiated. As this
system becomes gridlocked, so would much of global commerce.
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RECOMMENDATIONS
The Task Force makes the following recommendations:
• Develop a layered security system that focuses on the entire logistics and intermodal
transportation network rather than on an unintegrated series of tactics aimed at addressing
vulnerabilities at arrival ports or at already congested land borders.
• Develop standards for security at loading facilities for an intermodal container. Require
certification of these standards and periodic independent audits for compliance as a
condition for gaining access to an international transportation terminal.
• Identify and test commercial off-the-shelf sensors and tracking devices to assure in-
transit visibility and accountability of container movements and conduct demonstration
projects using volunteer commercial shippers to test their technological and commercial
viability.
• Improve the accuracy, timing, and format for transmitting and sharing data about the
contents, location, and chain of custody involving a container shipment.
• Accelerate the time table for the action plans agreed to in the U.S.-Canada and U.S.-
Mexico “smart-border” accords.
• Work with Canada to implement adequate security measures for cross-border bridges and
the Detroit-Windsor tunnel.
• Task the U.S. Department of State, U.S. Department of Commerce, and U.S. Trade
Representative to actively promote rapid adoption of security standards governing surface
and maritime transportation in bilateral and multilateral arrangements with America’s
trading partners. Work to advance these standards within appropriate international
organizations such as the International Standards Organization, International Maritime
Organization, and the World Customs Organization. Retrofitting security into the global
trade system is not only about mitigating the risk of terrorists exploiting these systems to
target the United States, but also about sustaining the system that underpins global
commerce.
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3. SET CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION PRIORITIES.
“We are convinced that our vulnerabilities are increasing steadily, that the means to
exploit those weaknesses are readily available and that the costs associated with an
effective attack continue to drop. What is more, the investments required to improve the
situation—now still relatively modest—will rise if we procrastinate.”
—The Report of the President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection, 1997
Our adversaries can attempt to strike anywhere, but their choice of target will likely not be
indiscriminate. There are some targets in the United States that are more high-value than others
in terms of visibility and the disruptive potential. Not all critical infrastructure is equally critical.
Decisions about what warrants the most immediate attention must be made on the basis of
relative vulnerability and consequence. Many of the critical infrastructures that underpin our
national economy and support our modern way of life remain as vulnerable to attack today as
they were a year ago. In some instances, the U.S. government is just beginning the process of
undertaking an initial inventory of these vulnerabilities. Greater attention has been paid to
physical security—gates, guards, and guns—but few resources are focused on preparing to
respond and restore critical systems should these protective measures fail. The Task Force
reviewed the June 30, 2002, findings and recommendations contained within the National
Academies’ report, Making the Nation Safer. The areas that the Task Force finds most
worrisome include:
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these flows. Nearly fifty percent of California’s electrical supply comes from natural gas power
plants and thirty percent of California’s natural gas comes from Canada. Compressor stations to
maintain pressure cost up to $40 million each and are located every sixty miles on a pipeline. If
these compressor stations were targeted, the pipeline would be shut down for an extended period
of time. A coordinated attack on a selected set of key points in the electrical power system could
result in multistate blackouts. While power might be restored in parts of the region within a
matter of days or weeks, acute shortages could mandate rolling blackouts for as long as several
years. Spare parts for critical components of the power grid are in short supply; in many cases
they must be shipped from overseas sources.
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rule. This lack of testing and monitoring capability can compound the consequences of a
localized attack since there is no means to quickly reassure an anxious public across America
that their drinking water is safe once a highly publicized incident takes place.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The Task Force makes the following recommendations:
• Set critical infrastructure priorities by moving beyond a ranking of vulnerabilities within
each sector. Instead, conduct a cross-sector analysis, placing a premium on addressing
vulnerabilities that present the greatest risk of cascading disruption and losses across
multiple sectors.
• Fund energy distribution vulnerability assessments to be completed in no more than six
months.
• Fund a stockpile of modular backup components to quickly restore the operation of the
energy grid should it be targeted.
• Work with Canada to put in place adequate security measures for cross-border pipelines.
• Bolster the capacity for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to exercise control
over detection and incidence management of plant and animal disease, drawing upon the
best practices developed by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) for managing human
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disease. Task USDA with immediately bringing online a shared communications network
to link it with states and U.S. trade partners.
• Provide adequate funding to significantly enhance USDA’s training in identifying foreign
diseases and assume global leadership in devising a robust international system for
monitoring the outbreak of animal and plant disease.
• Identify and remove legal liability constraints to routinely testing public water supplies
for dangerous contaminants. Accelerate the development of adequate laboratory testing to
serve local water companies and commissions.
• Create common integrated communication networks and real-time data/software backup
repositories among the clearing banks, the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation,
dealers, and other key participants in the government securities market. Routinely test for
recovery and resumption operations. The goal is to ensure that there are sufficient funds
and securities available to market-makers in times of market stress so as to support the
high level of liquidity required for trading.
“Our concern is that bioterrorism preparedness funding must be adequate, lasting, and
reliable to enable local public health agencies to build and sustain permanent
improvements in their ability to protect their communities twenty-four hours a day, seven
days a week. Most communities do not now have this level of protection.”
—Thomas L. Milne, Executive Director
National Association of County and City Health
Officials, April 18, 2002
Agents used in biological attacks often require several days before victims start exhibiting acute
symptoms. Early detection is key to stemming morbidity and mortality rates. Yet, with the
possible exception of New York City, America’s urban areas lack the advanced public health
warning systems or specialized equipment to make this determination. There are simply not
enough resources available within existing state and local budgets to remedy this situation in a
timely way. Most local public health departments are barely funded and staffed to run during a
normal 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. work week. Medical professionals often lack the training to properly
diagnose and treat diseases spawned by biological agents. Many of the states’ public health
reporting systems are antiquated, slow, and outmoded. It can routinely take up to three weeks for
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a public health department to register a disease incident report in the national database. And there
is no consensus on which language and diagnostic coding system should be used for a national
database or how to safeguard that information.
Recent efforts in the federal government to respond to the bioterrorism threat may only add
to confusion over responsibility and accountability. Responsibility for direction and coordination
of public health efforts should rest with a substantially bolstered Centers for Disease Control
with clear lines of communication to other departments and agencies such as the National
Institutes of Health. Since much of the nation’s research and most of the treatment capacity lie in
the private sector, outreach is essential.
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Health Officials estimate that localities need 10,000 to 15,000 new employees to work in public
health preparedness functions. Given these shortages, few localities have the ability to assemble
a team to conduct an outbreak investigation.
Public health laboratories cannot support a surge in the number of tests to verify the
existence of a biological agent. Seven months after the anthrax mailings, there was a backlog of
thousands of unexamined specimens suspected of being contaminated with anthrax powder
around the United States.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The Task Force makes the following recommendations:
• Ensure that major cities and counties plan and train for truly catastrophic attacks. While
these scenarios strike many as too horrific to contemplate, imagining and planning for
them can potentially make the difference between a twenty percent casualty rate and an
eighty percent or higher casualty rate.
• Make emergency federal funding available to address the highest priority state, county,
and city public health needs.
• Develop public health surveillance systems built around monitoring ambulance calls,
pharmacies reporting an upsurge in the purchase of certain over-the-counter drugs,
corporations and schools reporting a surge in worker or student absenteeism, and doctors
and hospitals reporting an increase in walk-in patients.
• Develop and maintain call lists of retired nurses, doctors, and emergency medical
technicians living in the community who can be mobilized in an emergency. Provide
annual training for these nonpracticing professionals and create a process for activating a
“good Samaritan” clause to override malpractice issues.
• Identify and maintain call lists of knowledgeable experts who can authoritatively speak to
the media about nuclear, chemical, or biological agents, symptoms of exposures, and
recommended safeguards. Develop communications strategies and prepare educational
materials and media guides for radio and TV on survival fundamentals for attacks
involving weapons of mass destruction.
• Recruit major corporations and schools to help provide medications during an
emergency. While the federal government will soon have the capability to ship antibiotics
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and vaccines from the twelve national pharmaceutical stockpiles to urban areas within six
hours, there are currently no local distribution plans to get these medicines to the general
population.
• Provide funding to hospitals to pre-wire and outfit certain common areas such as lobbies,
cafeterias, and hallways to support a surge in patients. Negotiate arrangements with
hotels and conference centers to provide bed space for spillover patients.
The burden of preparing and responding to catastrophic terrorist attacks lies primarily outside the
federal government at the local and state levels and with the private sector companies that own
and operate much of the nation’s critical infrastructure. Most of the expertise about both the
vulnerabilities and the most practical protective measures to save lives and avert mass societal
and economic disruption rests at this level as well. The federal government must provide
leadership by issuing the call to action, supporting forums convened to address these issues, and
supplying as much specific information as possible to key decision-makers on the nature of the
threat.
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and preclude the ability of federal government officials to share anything but the most generic
security and threat information.
The real value of sharing information is that it can encourage efforts to develop innovative
security measures that involve all the relevant stakeholders. But innovation also generally
requires the infusion of federal resources to support research and development. Here the sense of
urgency required by the homeland security mission collides with the lethargic and arcane system
governing federal procurement—the Federal Acquisition Rules (FAR). These rules, which run
literally into the thousands of pages, may be tolerable for routine government purchases, but
without a more streamlined process to move federal resources, change will be measured in terms
of years, not in the weeks and months that taking emergency measures to address our most
serious vulnerabilities requires. Also, private companies that agree to work with the public sector
to assist in developing and providing security measures will require legal safeguards that
appropriately reduce their liability exposure. Good faith efforts to advance security should not
result in a risk of bankruptcy or huge litigation costs should these measures ultimately fail to
deter or prevent terrorist attacks.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The Task Force makes the following recommendations:
• Draw on private sector experts who are involved in the design and operations of
critical infrastructures such as the electric-power grid, telecommunications, gas and
oil, banking and finance, transportation, water supply, public health services, and
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emergency services. Enlist their participation to conduct government-sponsored
vulnerability assessments and to participate in red-team activities.
• Enact an “Omnibus Anti-Red Tape” law with a two-year sunset clause for approved
private-public homeland security task forces to include: (1) a fast-track security
clearance process that permits the sharing of “secret-level” classified information
with non-federal and industry leaders; (2) a FOIA exemption in instances when
critical infrastructure industry leaders agree to share information about their security
vulnerabilities with federal agencies, (3) exemption of private participants in these
task forces from antitrust rules; (4) permitting homeland security appropriations to be
managed under the more liberal rules governing research and development programs
in the Department of Defense rather than according to the customary Federal
Acquisition Rules; and (5) liability of safeguards and limits.
• Fund and deploy survey teams in Britain, France, Spain, and Israel to conduct studies
on managing urban terrorism, evaluating European airline security procedures, and
examining private-public intelligence sharing arrangements.
6. FUND, TRAIN, AND EQUIP THE NATIONAL GUARD TO MAKE HOMELAND SECURITY A PRIMARY
MISSION.
The National Guard will play a critical role when the next catastrophic terrorist attack happens
on American soil, and it must be well trained and equipped. Governors will expect National
Guard units in their states to help with detecting chemical and biological agents, treating the
victims, managing secondary consequences, and maintaining civil order. The National Guard has
highly disciplined manpower spread throughout the nation in 5,475 units. The men and women
who make up its ranks often come from the local community in which their unit is based. When
called up by governors, the National Guard can be used to enforce civil laws—unlike regular
forces which are bound by posse comitatus restrictions on performing law enforcement duties.
The National Guard’s medical units, engineer units, military police units, and ground and air
transport units will likely prove indispensable in helping to manage the consequences of a
terrorist attack.
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ADAPTING TO THE NEW HOMELAND SECURITY IMPERATIVE
Governors, charged with developing state homeland security plans, will look to their
National Guard units to fulfill such needs as:
• State-of-the-art communications systems necessary for command-and-control during the
chaos of a terrorist attack;
• Manpower in order to evacuate, quarantine, and protect residents as need be;
• Knowledge of chemical, biological, and radiological attacks and the capability to respond
to them;
• The capacity to provide local medical centers with additional trauma and triage
capabilities.
The National Guard is currently equipped and trained primarily for carrying out its role in
supporting conventional combat units overseas. The homeland security mission can draw on
many of these capabilities but requires added emphasis on:
• Responding to a biological attack—the National Guard’s focus in recent years has been
primarily on surviving and fighting in a battlefield where chemical weapons have been
deployed.
• Acquiring protection, detection, and other equipment that is tailored for complex urban
environments.
• Training to provide civil support in the aftermath of a large-scale catastrophic attack.
RECOMMENDATIONS
An aggressive approach to revamping the capabilities of National Guard units designated to
respond to domestic terrorist attacks can in the short-term provide a more robust response
capability while states and localities work to bring their individual response mechanisms up to
par. In order for the National Guard to fulfill this mission, the Task Force recommends:
• Congress should authorize and fund additional training for National Guard units to work
with state civil authorities and to conduct exercises with local first responders in support
of the new homeland security plans being developed by each governor.
• Triple the number of WMD-Civil Support Teams from twenty-two to sixty-six teams,
develop capabilities so that response times are reduced to within the narrow window
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where their presence is still valuable, and reevaluate equipment and training programs in
order to develop response capabilities for the full range of WMD threats in urban
environments.
• Bolster the National Guard’s “train the trainers” programs to quickly bring baseline
training on the recognition and response to WMD events to localities around the country.
• Move away from using National Guard resources where their deployment has a minimal
impact. National Guardsmen are too valuable to be assigned to borders and airports
where they are limited in the functions they can perform. Instead, the agencies with the
mandate in these areas need to be given the necessary resources to perform their missions
without National Guard help.
• Redress the pay and job protection discrepancies between when National Guard units are
called up by the president and when they are called up by a governor. When governors
order an activation, guardsmen receive no protection that allows them to return to their
civilian jobs as provided under the Soldiers and Sailors Civil Relief Act. In addition,
when on state active duty they may be paid as little as $75 a day.
CONCLUSION
Quickly mobilizing the nation to prepare for the worst is an act of prudence, not fatalism. In the
twenty-first century, security and liberty are inseparable. The absence of adequate security
elevates the risk that laws will be passed immediately in the wake of surprise terrorist attacks that
will be reactive, not deliberative. Predictably, the consequence will be to compound the initial
harm incurred by a tragic event with measures that overreach in terms of imposing costly new
security mandates and the assumption of new government authorities that may erode our
freedoms. Accordingly, aggressively pursuing America’s homeland security imperatives
immediately may well be the most important thing we can do to sustain our cherished freedoms
for future generations.
Preparedness at home also plays a critical role in combating terrorism by reducing its appeal
as an effective means of warfare. Acts of catastrophic terrorism produce not only deaths and
physical destruction but also societal and economic disruption. Thus, as important as it is to try
and attack terrorist organizations overseas and isolate those who support them, it is equally
important to eliminate the incentive for undertaking these acts in the first place. By sharply
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reducing, if not eliminating, the disruptive effects of terrorism, America’s adversaries may be
deterred from taking their battles to the streets of our nation’s homeland.
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TASK FORCE MEMBERS
CHARLES G. BOYD is currently Chief Executive Officer and President of Business Executives
for National Security (BENS). Before retiring from the U.S. Air Force in August 1995,
General Boyd served as Deputy Commander in Chief for the U.S. European Command.
WILLIAM J. CROWE is a Senior Adviser at Global Options. Previously, Admiral Crowe served
as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Ronald Reagan.
STEPHEN E. FLYNN, who directed the Task Force, is the Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow
for National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and recently retired as a
Commander in the U.S. Coast Guard. He served in the White House Military Office during the
first Bush administration and as a Director for Global Issues on the National Security Council
staff during the Clinton administration.
GARY HART, who co-chaired the Task Force, has been Of Counsel with Coudert Brothers since
1994. As Senator from Colorado from 1975 to 1987, Gary Hart served on the Armed Services,
Budget, and Environment committees and was also a Congressional Adviser to the SALT II
talks in Geneva.
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JAMES KALLSTROM is currently Senior Executive Vice President at MBNA America Bank.
After September 11, 2001, Mr. Kallstrom took a leave of absence from MBNA America and
served as the Director of the Office of Public Security for the State of New York.
PHILIP ODEEN is Chairman of TRW Inc. Before joining TRW Inc., Mr. Odeen was President
of BDM International, Inc., and a Vice Chairman at Coopers & Lybrand LLP.
WARREN B. RUDMAN, who co-chaired the Task Force, is currently a Partner in the
international law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton and Garrison and formerly Chairman of
the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board under Clinton. Previously, he represented
New Hampshire in the U.S. Senate from 1980 to 1992.
GEORGE P. SHULTZ is currently the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow at
the Hoover Institution. He has served as Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury,
Secretary of Labor, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget.
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ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER is currently Dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and
International Affairs at Princeton University. Prior to her appointment at Princeton, she was
the J. Sinclair Armstrong Professor of International, Foreign, and Comparative Law at
Harvard Law School.
JOHN W. VESSEY is currently Chairman of the Council’s Center for Preventive Action and
previously served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff as well as Vice Chief of Staff of the
U.S. Army.
WILLIAM H. WEBSTER is a Partner at the law firm of Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy. He
previously served as the Director of Central Intelligence from 1987 to 1991 and as Director of
the Federal Bureau of Investigation from 1978 to 1987.
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