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Attribution ExtreAttribution of Extreme Weather Events in The Context of Climate Changeme Weather Brief Final
Attribution ExtreAttribution of Extreme Weather Events in The Context of Climate Changeme Weather Brief Final
March 2016
DIVISION ON E ARTH AND LIFE STUDIES
AT T RI B UT I ON OF
Climate Change
Quality/
Length of the
Observational
Record
Understanding of
Physical Mechanisms
that Lead to Changes in
Extremes as a Result of
Climate Change
Tropical cyclones
Extratropical
cyclones
Wildfire
Severe convective
storms
= high
= medium
= low
Extreme cold events
Extreme heat events
Drought
Extreme rainfall
Extreme snow
Figure 1. Overall confidence in event attribution is strongest for extreme event types that
are adequately simulated in climate models, have a long-term historical record of observations, and are linked to human-caused climate change through an understood and robustly
simulated physical mechanism. The entries in this table, which are presented in approximate
order of overall confidence, are based on the available literature and are the product of
committee deliberation and judgement.
Figure 2. Confidence in attribution is higher for events such as more frequent heat waves
and less frequent cold snaps, which are linked to human-caused increases in global
temperatures through an understood and robustly simulated physical mechanism. There is
less confidence in the attribution of other types of events, such as tropical cyclones, that are
related to climate change in more complex and less understood ways.