~LOOICAL

R>RECASTINO ANO ~

aIANOE

47, 7.s-U (1994)

c . MAR CHE-rn

AMTRACT
Penooa1 tnvd Ippean IO be mllCb IIDdcr tbc ~
of buIc bIItiIM:ta lJIaDof ~c
drives. 1bia
may be tbc reaon ror tbc ~atic
Iniml8tch bettbc raulu of ~ benefit 8D8lYlll8IId the KtU8I bebavior
or travelen.
In tbis paper wc put toIetber alist of tbc buic iDItiDdJ tbat driw 8IId coataIn tnvders' bebavior. showina
how tbey ~
wIth ~
~
8IId ~
alllltraiDU.

latrodudioa
Tbat man is a territorial animaI is a statement that does not need demonstration.
History is a coUection of squabbles between human groups competing far territories;
but also brothers sbarinS tbc lame room squabble far its division in areasof inftuence.
Now the basic insiinci of a territorial animai is to expand ils lerrilory. A larser terrltory
means larser resources and opportunities and the rationaIe far accretion is obvious.
Exploiting a larse territory is also expensive,however, botb becauseit requirestbc physical
exertlon of moving aver larse distances, and becausemoving meansto be in tbe open,
under the possible threat from enemiesand predators.
For an animaI, and far a pretechnological man, a baIancecan be struck byadjusling
one single parameter: meon lraveling lime per day. Strict1y speaking this fixes only tbc
"exposure lime," but, in fact, multiplied by tbc mean speed of movement of a certain
animaI, it fixes a distance, or a range, that is a territory.
Tbe second point is that man hos a cave inslincl. Tbc protection of the high tree
witb dense foliage in tbe tropical rain forest has found a Sood substitute in tbc hiding
shade of tbc caVerD,where man 5pent most of tbe time not devoted to gathering and
hunting. Tbis relic is important as the big businessof air transport pivots on this instinct,
as wc shaU$CCin a momento
The field work of Zahavi (6, 71, who was at tbc World Bank when he did it, is in
my opinion most remarkable becauseit showstbc quinlessenllIunily 01lraveling insiincis
around lhe world. above culture, Tace,and religion, 50 to speak, which gives unity to
tbc considerations relative to tbc history and future of traveling, and provides a robust
basis for forecasts in time and lcography.
The empirical conclusion reached by Zahavi is that aD over the world the mean
exposure lime for man is around one hour per day. This is a mean aver the year and
over a population, but the tails of tbc distribution afe not spreadmuro around tbc centraI
vaIue. The efl'ectsof tbc instinct afe pervasive. Even people in prison for a life sentence,
Cesare Mud.ctti is at tbc IDtCnI8tIooa1lnJtitute for Applied SystCIIIIAn~
LaSCII~,
Addreu reprint req-.
to Or. Celare Marcbetti, JacquiDl8lle 45/11, Vienna 3, Adita.

o 1994EIIeYia'ScieIM:e
Inc

Austria.

0040-1625

/94/S7

. IX)

76

c . MAR CHE"m

FiI. 1. Territor} aroa.d miaca la Grefte. TH alricuharal ara relerrial to a vlllaie ba -- settled
b, tri" and error darilll the centaries.Tblslaare sbowsa ,.n 01Greece,wltb vm.le8 m.rked IS points
on tbe map. Tbe mean are. beIOD&lIIIIOeacb vOlale Is a Ordeabove 10 km', polDtlnl lo a radlas 01
abolII 1.5 km. Tbis Is"so tbelII,.,estradlas01tbe w"'s 01ancint citin, UkeRome,Persepolls,Marrakecb,
or Vien.a. The conaectedcore 01 VeDb bas tbe samedlmetl8io88loda, (1).

baving nothing to do and nowhere to IO, waJk around far ODehour a day, in tbe open.
Wa1king about 5 km/hr, and camini back to the cave far the night, gives a territory
radius of about 2.5 km and an area of about 20 kmz. This is the definition of the territory
of a viliage, and, as Figure l sbows. tbis is precisely tbe mean area associatedwitb Greek
viliage! today. sedimentedtbrough centuriesof history. The sameprinciple operate! when
a city, through its importance, political or economic, expands its population and, as a

ANTHROPOLOOICAL

INV ARIANTS

IN TRA VEL BEHA VlOR

."

.R20km===:~:::-r

"'
'-

IIOkm
/up

--

" '" '\:\ \

- Pedestrians .nd coaches

from 1860 - Horse Tramways and BUles
rrom 1905 - Electric Trams
from 1925 - Subways
I

to 1815

rrom

1950

Cars

,I

"1. 2. Clly dimenlion 8ad speed 01 masport: ne ase 01 Berlln. ne 18d tut tH Md811yr8dius"
depeDds OD aH speed 01 tr8alpon8tioa Is de8r1y _Dil~ed
by the evolutioa 01 tIIe sIze 01 alle dty 01
Ber118. ne Bertl8 01 1800 W81 very c:omP8d .nth 8 r8dlus 012.5 km, polatlna to 8 speed 015 k8l/hr,
the speed 018 8I8a w8Jki8a. Witb fIle lntroduc:tioa 01 I-er aad luter meaas 01 tr8Bsportation the r8dius
01 fIle dty aFeWin P't)portion to tbrir speed, 8nd is aow 8bout 20 k8l, poIatiDI to 8 mea8 Speedlor c:an
01 8bout 40 km/hr. The ceater 01 fIle c:lly c:aa lIe defiDed, then, ti alle polnt tbat fIle 18F1eslnumber 01
peopie c:aareac:hla le8 th8a JO mlaDtes. Redudag fIle 8ttess to fIle leo_tril:
c:enter, lor eD8Iple, tbroalb
zoniDl, c:.n dispiace the lundional center elsewhere, lor ex8mple, outslde Ihe c:lly. Sbopplaa centen afe
8 lypic:aJ c:oIueqUeBc:e01 poor tr8asport8tioa tOW8rd fIle cenler 01 1M dty.

consequence,its physicaJsize. There are no city waJIsof large, ancient cities (up to 1800),
be it Rome or Persepolis, which bave a diameter greater than 5 km or a 2.5 km radius.
Even Venice today, stilI a pedestrian city, has exactly 5 km as the maximum dimension
of the connected care.
When introducing mechanical transportation with speedshigher than 5 km/hr, the
physical size of the city can grow in proportion, as the historical anaJysisapplied to the
city of Berlin clearly shows (Figure 2). The commuting fields, basedon cars, of a dozen
American cities afe reported in Figure 3. On the same chart and to the same scale, the
Greek villages of Figure l are shown in schematic formo Con moke 0/1 the difference.
As they bave a speedof 6 or 7 times greater than a pedestrian,they expanddaily connected
$pace6 or 7 times in linear tenns, or about SOtimes in area. Ancient cities typica1ly had
a maximum popuJation of about l million people. Today the population may tend to
reach 50 million people in conurbations like Mexico City (Figure 4), with a population
density equa! to that of Hadrian's Rome. lf the Japanesecomplete a ShinkonsenMoglev
(a magnetically levitated train) connecting Tokyo to Osaka in lessthan ODehour with a
!arge transportation capacity, then we may witness a city of 100 million people. If we
expand the reasoning, we can museabout a city of l billion people, which would require
an efficient transportation system with a mean speed of only ISO km/br. This could

C. MARCHE'rn

f:-:~ ~',~ '

,

lfJ,. .

I ..
I i//

...~

1\

',.

"'-..

"

IV

I,~

FiI.3. Co_utl81 leldala Il Americaa ddes. ne IeOlnphy 01cM "w8Ik'aa -"

"_0..
Hre
ODtk _e IC8lea that 01the "driv'na.aa" commuti8lln a aumber01 American dtles. As can bave
aspeed01 aM8t l't ta- tUa 01 a pedeItriaD,1M ro_utiBI
diI~
8ft aho.t ...t tI8eI
alleat. ne area acc-'ble - tH t.mtory- ho.ever, lrow a tk Iqure 01 tlle dUtaDCe,IO t- drlYi81
~
ha a ferritOr)"whk~ is about 60 ~
'araer than the waUdaaODeIl).

t1a. 4. Oty lize od traaport

speed:Tbe case01Mexico Clty. At

.. de8Iityor Hadrtu'sRo- (1
miUon people oyer 20 km~, we
wonld P8Ck 60 mMUo. peopie lo a
dty WMn 1M Speedor trauportadon atvel accessto a. area 60 tlme!
1811, _ai.
I a. ri&bt-Iold 10creaa i. speed 01 trauportati08.
Tbe lolistie aDalysis 01 tbe lrowtb
or Mnko Qty poi8ts to a satti- leye! or abo.t 50 mDIIo', weU

m t-

-;-

+-

-4

witbt~- top-dOw.
esti-

_tes. We took a trauportadoa

speedof 5 km/hr for Home.nd 40
ka/br ror Mnko OIy.

ANTHROPOLOOICAL

INV ARJANTS IN TRA VEL BEHA VIOR

79

bappen in China, as theseaggregationstend to stop at cultural and poIitical barriers as

we sha// see.
Tbe accent can be set, then, on transportation as the unifying principle 01 the world,
and noI communication as tbe current wisdom indicates. On ODeside the so-calledexplosion in communication during the last 20 years did BOt dent transportation expansion;
on the other band, they tend to move together (Figure S)asGriibler hasshown, pointing to
a synergisticmore than a competitive situation (4). As communication and transportation
move together, ODecan be used as a proxy for the other far measuring the effect of the
political-cultural barriers we cited before. We can look, far example, at interactions
betweencommunities of different languages(e.g., culture), or betweencommunities with
the same language but different political denomination. Tbe results of the analysis are
obtained by looking, far example, at telephone calls between cities in Quebec (French
speaking) and Ontario (English speaking) and the nearby United States. As we can see
in Figure 6, cultural barriers or political barriers bring a reduction byan order 01 magnirude in communication, and supposedly in personal movement.
Tbc reduction can be seenby applying a gravitational model to communication and
transportation, which works weUin both casesand differ in the numerical coefficient as
explained in the legendof Figure 6. Tbis means.that a superfastMaglev connection system
for the European care may link it without really unifying it in the senseof the Shinkansen
area, at least in the short term - SOyears, far example. Mixing people may favor cultural
compatibility - ashistory shows.Cultural traits are slow to modify and fast transportation
may finally raise the centraI problem of /tow to rea!iu a viable multicultural society,

80

C. MAR CHETTI

10000

1~
.!!
-=
o
'M)O

10

100

1000

10000

100(MX)

P, x P/d
Fil. 6. Me
es as measure of inten:onDection: ne case of Canada. Due to paraUelism betWeetl
mes88le Rcunce by telephone and travelinl, we may ase the IIrst 8S a proxy for the secoad, at least in
aa approximatioa where we look for ballpark filures. Bere, we are trylng to assessthe barrier effect of
politica! and cultura! dUfereoces. The base model is gravitatioD81 (81, maDiDI that in a homoceneous
system tdephone calli hetween two cities are proportional to the produCi of their population divided by
some power of their distan4:e KP,P,jd.
ne model works al50 for systems with dilferent lanlUalel (here ODtario and Quebec) bui equal
politica! systems, and for systems of the S8JDelanluace (ODtario and nearby USA) bui dllferent politica)
systems. The proportiolla/lty coefficient K i.J an order of mllgnitude smaller, showing thllt cultural and
poUtical differencu lire very powerful interchange ~s,
however. Sinular results are obtained by
100Dnl at mvel Inside Europe, where rea) unlfication may t8ke 10Dcer than the abolition of frontiers
or tlle roDstruction of a fasi connection grid wlth Mallevs (Il.

however.This is not only an inevitable politica} and religious problem, but also an ecologicol ODe,so to speak, as it seemslike a good idea to preserve the cultural diversity of
human populations in parallel with the biodiversity of liviDI species.
In ODeof my GedankenexperimenteI explored the possibility of using transport
technology in such a way as to leave the possibility of saving cultural roots, allowing
intense interaction at the salDetime. Such problems can be solved only by going back
to basic principles and I tried to go in that direction. Man, as I said before, is a cave
animal and spends much 01 his lime in his cave, actual/y more than two thirds (Figure
7). His family, bis fumiture, and bis cultural roots afe there. In order to preserve ali
that it seemsalmost necessaryto permit a person to come back to the cave, wherever
bis work and businesstakes biro during thc day.

ANTHROPOLOOICAL

INV ARIANTS

81

IN TRA VEL BEHA VIOR

Percent

75*

Athens

61
70
76

Poland

68
'11.7.TI_..'

a. ~O- byad"""..no.

CO881ries
(2).

My Gedankenexperimenl, which I presentedat Marrak~h in a congresarelated to

the problerns of linking Africa (or better the Magreb) to Europe with a bridge or a tunnel
across tbe Gibraltar Strait, was based on tbe exploitation of tbc maximurn poteotial of
tbe Maglev, tbe maaneticaIly levitated and driveo traino At tbe Polytecbnic of Lausanne
a Ma&iev transportation system about 700-km Ioni linking tbe major Swiss cities with
transit times of lO minutes hasbeenproposed (Figure 8), witb tbe characteristicof runninl
in an evacuatedpipe (air presaureequivaleot toabeight of 15,(XM)
mders) [3]. Tbe rationale
is to bave a small tunnel, almost fittinl tbe size of tbe traino Due to tbe mountainous
conformation of Switzerland, sucb connections bave to be made in tunnels for tbe most
part, and tbe cost of tunnelinl is dominant over every otber component of tbe system.
Operating in a partial vacuum, however, removes the most important constraint to
vehicle speed, as Ma&ievs move more or lesa in a frictionless manner on a magnetic
cushion. We stiU bave a limitation on tbe acceleration that hurnans can take. I assurned
0.5 G or S m/sec1as an acceptableODe.It is the acceleration(for a few precious seconds)
of extremely expensivecars, like Ferraris and Porsches.
Operatinl a MaIlev betweenCasablancaand Paris at constant acceleration(CAM>,
tbat is, by acceleratinl halfway and brakinl tbe other half at O.SI, tbe train wou1dcaver
tbe distance in about 20 minutes. In other words a woman in Casablancacould IO to
work in Paris, and cook dinner for ber children in tbe evening. Vice versa for shopping
for specia1items in a specialculturai atmosphere.Witb appropriate interfaces, suchtrains
cau1d carry hundreds of thousauds of people per day. The idea behind Ihis is lo SQ\Ie
cultural rools wilhoul impeding work and businessin lhe mosl suilable places. IncidentaUy, businessmeowho can afl'ord the extraordinary cost of air travel in Europe do exactty

C. MARCHETI1

82

FII. 8. Proposai lor a "SwissM~tro" Dlad~ by tbe Fedenl PoIytecknk Scbool 01 La...n_.
Switurland. A Maale" traIn would run in a partiaIly ~"acuated tube to J8"~ on tunnellnl COlts. Tb~ lime tak~n
to conned two adjacent claies15k~pt constaat at about IO minul~s. TbecODsequ~Dc:e
01 such an arraageDl~DI
would be th~ luMon 01 tlatte c:ities al aIll~"tls 01 opention. Tbe pl"ol dty, &era. collld bODl~ tbe "cily
cnter"

01 the syst~m.

that. They take the pIane becauseit permits them to come back at night to sleep in their
beloved cave, with fami1y, cultural, and status symbols in pIace.
Speaking of a European care, I must saythat functional integration at a high hierarchicallevel (e.g., having a common foreign policy) may not require full intearation at
a lower level, which would be an integration hitting againstcultural and linguistic barriers.
A suggestionin that sensecomes from an analysis I did on the rank-size of world cities.
This rank-size imagesthe distribution oJ tasks betweenthe largest cities of the world (or
of a nation) in running the systemand filling a territory fractally. As shown by Zipf in
bis seminai work in the 19405,a well-developed system shows a fractaI structure in the
size of the population of cities (Figure 9). In 1920 London was the world's largest city
and ber number ODeranking was obvious in terms of politics and finance. The ranking
of the world's cities sat on anice straight line as it should according to Zipf. If we repeat
the exercisenow, we find that the world cities line has a big knee (Figure IO). In a sense,
eitber the world is short of large cities or in some way it is not at equilibrium.
Air transportation has made it possible to commute betweencities, however, if not
everyday, at least far tbe necessarynumber of times, far the "elites" in functional termsmanagers,politicians, professionalI of a high rank. The sets of cities where air shuttles
work, showing high density of this kind of exchange,bave been dubbed by Doxiadis as
corridOI'S.They often bave a linear structure like Boston-New York-Washington, or

ANTHROPOLOGICAL

INV ARIANTS

IN TRA VEL BEMA VlOR

83

l
Rank

lO

100

Fig.9. ne raak-size distribution 01 tbe world's largest cities in 1920. Zipl sbowed tbat in an interconnected system tbe population size 01 cities tendI to bave a constant ratio wben ordered in a decreasinl
size sequence (rank). Accordinc to Zipl, wbo ordered tbese sequences in a 101-101"rank-size," matcblng
a straiCbt liRe is tbe manilestation 01 some sort 01 equilibrium In tbe distribution 01 tuks. Raak number
ODe belonls to tbe city witb tbe bllbest rank lunctlons in world politicI and finance. At world level,
London fltted weU iato tbat position in 1920. Tbe dlstrlbution can also be interpreted as a lractal sei tbat
IIIls a space (8).

Tokyo-Nagoya-Qsaka. Assimilaling corridors lo cities and repeating tbe exercisewe find

a fit according to Zipf's paradigrn. This is certainly not a proof, but a strong suggestion
tbat tbe movement of tbe elite is sufficient for a lunclional inlegralion al Ihe highesl
level. Most corridors afe betweencities tbat afe culturaUy and politica1ly homogeneous;
a generalization is tben not advisable. Some strong interconnections between cities like
London and Amsterdam may be testbedsfor studying tbe effect of cultura! and politica!
barriers at tbe level of tbe elite.
If tbese effectsafe not so strong as for tbe bu1k of tbe population, in tbe sensetbat
tbey can be digestedin a relatively sbort time, tben hypersonicplanes operating sbuttles
at world level, witb tbe elite coming back to tbeir cave at Dght wberever tbey bave to
IO, could become tbe backbone 01 a single world. Speedis a unifying principle. as tbe
case of tbe evolution of "on foot empires" and "borseback empires" in China sbows
(Figure Il). Tbey eventually reacbedtbe samefinal dimension measuredin lime of about
one monlh for a retum trip from tbe peripbery to the capita!. If it takes longer, as
bappened wben Rome lost control of tbe sea, tben tbe peripbery splits, building an
independent politica! unit (tbe Eastem Roman Empire). This one-montb max.imumtime
lag in the dominant-to-subject feedback cycle has never been studied to my knowledge
but tbe evidence tbat comes from tbe evolution of Roman, Persian, Chinese, and Inca

84

100

~
.

C. MARCHETn

SHINKHANSEN
NORTH EASTERN CORRIOOR

RHINE SYSTEM

GREATlAKES
CAllFORNIA
JANGTSE
SAO-RIO
MEXICO CITV

10

""""

'"

"'

1..'

50

10

"'"

100

130

RANK
Fia. lO. "Corridors" u lunc:tlooa! unIti. Il we repeat the Zipl chart 011920 today, we find that the
rank-slze 01 world cities line bendi sharply at around a poputatloo 01 7 miJlion. proJectina lrom the
sma!ler cities upward, oDe could say that, lo the Zlpl logic, we are short 01 very large cities. However,
c:ouolioa "corridors", that is, seu 01 cities coanected wlth a!r shutdes aod very lut trains, as slnale uoiu,
we find 7Jpfs order aaalo. This may meao that the daily movemeot 01 the "elite" is sufficleot to eosure
tbe highest raok luoctioos, wlth c:orrespoodlng slzes equa! to the sum 01 tbe coooected cities.

empires points to another subjacent, basic instinct. The splendid transport networks
empire builders were forced to put in piace appear to be a necessaryconsequence.
Trips of longer periods afe the ones made by tourists (historically precededby pilgrirns) about once a year. Coming tram a tourist attractor (Florence), I bave always been
curious about the driving forces behind tourist wanderings, and being familiar with the
speciesI am very skeptical about their rationalizations. My hypothesis is that there is
again a basic drive behind this. If I can describethe behavior of a tourist, perhapsa little
sarcastically: he chasesa target as far away aspossible, hopefully unexplored (unpolluted
meanshe is the first to go there). Once the piace is reached,he collects material far tales
and physical souvenirs. Then he comes back and fills the heads of colleagues, friends,
and parents with the tales of the magnificent land he has just discovered. The behavior
is very much reminiscent of the danc;ng bee telling where the blossoming tree is located
and the mass and kind of ftower (she carries the souvenirs, pollen and the perfume, on
herself). Souvenirs then becomea tangible testimony that the tales afe veridical (man is
a bom liar). When Moses sent scoutsto Palestine, they traveied back loaded with specimens, in particular, a bunch of grapes so large that two men with a pale were needed

ANTHROPOLOOICAL

INV ARlANTS

IN TRA WL

85

SERA VIOR

_H._I

lilI. Il. Tra'fel speed aod tbe muimum me 01 ao empire. As tbe Chlnese say, past blstory contains
ali useful precedRts to interpret tbe presento It may be interesti81 to mule about bow traDsportation
speed sbapes tbe empireI. Rere, tbe size 01 tbe IUlest empireI in Cbinese Asia aFe reported. Tbey an
be ordered ia two iogistics baviDl saturation polnts 01 0.7 x lO' kJD1aod -lO x IO' kJD1, or merm
dMmeten 01 - 930 km and - 3700 km. In both cases, tbis corresponds to about a lS-day retum trip
lrom the center oa/oot, aad on horseback, respectively. Apparentiy, empireI wbere tbe peripbery is more
thaa lS days away lrom tbe capita! spUt, sbowiDl tllat fidelity to the centrai polller h4J a holdlng lime
o/ one moon. Rome's empire ~ad to split wben Rome iost contro! 01 tbe seas. An overiaod trip to the
Black Sea took ODemoBIlI. Tbe lood news is tllat with c.rrent airplanes a world 10'femment is possibie.
Witb macb- 7 airplanes aad matcllinl Maaievs, a world city is also possibie. Tbe assimUation 01 the
tecbooiogies ia poiideal terms, however, wiIl take some lime.

to carry it. Seen from this systemic point of view, we can perhaps study the tourist
phenomenon throUgh a fresh and objective approach.
There is another fundamental observation made by Zahavi that links instincts and
money. Becauseof its generality it could be dubbed as a money instinct. People spend
about 13'7. of their disposableincome on traveling. The percentageis the samein Germany
or Canada, now or in 1930. Within this budget, time and money afe allocated between
the various modes of transport available to the traveUer in such a way as to maxim;ze
mean speed.The very poor man walks and makes 5 km/day, the very rich man fties and
makes 500 km/day. The rest sit in between. People owning a car use it far about ODe
hour a day (Figure 12) and travel about 50 km/day (Figure 13). People who do not bave
a car spend less than 130/. of their disposable income, however, presumably because
public servicesafe underrated and consequently there is no possibility of spending that
share of income traveling ODehour per day (Figure 14). Contrary to the risk of aD this
"exposure," the number of people killed by road traffic seemsto be invariant to the
number of vehicles (Figure 15).
Technology introduces faster and faster means of transportation, which also afe
more expensivein terms of time of use. These new technologies afe introduced rougbly
every 55 years in tune with the Kondratiev cycle. Their complete adoption takes about
100 years (Figure 16). We afe now in the secondKondratiev far cars and most mobility
comesfrom tbem. It wasabout IO km/ day earlier, and is now about 40 km/ day . Airplanes
afe making inroads into this situation and they promise to bring the next leap forward
in mobility, presumably with the help of Maglev trains. Hypersonic airplanes promise
to glue the world into a singie territory: the famous global village.

86

c. MAR.CHETTI

Miles/Year

10,000'

~1---1

..

;:!~~--..
9,400

--12

-. .

-. .

..

5.000-

oI
1930

1940

I
1950

'

I
1960

'

I
1970

'

.I

1980

Fig. 13. A historical overview or car mUeage in the USA (miles/year). The regulari., In the UR or
can (about one hour per day) Is mirrored in the stabUlty or mUnge per year. reported bere 'or the USA.
Thls Implies a curious stabUlty in the mean speed, about 30 miles/hr-since
Henry Ford's tlmes. Data
rrom [5].

ANTHROPOLOGICAL

INV ARIANTS

IN TRA VEL RERA VIOR

87

NATIONWIDE vs Total HouseholdExpenditures,%

US

1963-1975

13.18:i: 0.38

Canada

1963-1974

13.14:f: 0.43

UK

1972

West Germany

11.7

1971-1'974

11.28:f: 0.54

URBAN vs. Household Income, %

With Cars

Carless

Washington, DC

1968

Il.0

4.2

Twin Cities

1970

10.1

Nuremberg Region

1.97~

~1.8

3.4
3.5

Fig. 14. Rates of travel expeoditure io varlous couotries. Expeoditure 00 travel appean to add up
to qoite a stable meao value of about 13'70or personal disposable lncome. This badIe i8 allocated betweeo
traolport modes io a way that realizes maximom meao speed (i.e., territory). People who do oot bave
a car UR pubUc services, which afe osoally uoderpriced, aod io the avaUable hour for travelappear unable
to speod Ihe whole budget.

30
c
2
"4
""5
gQ.

8.
8
--~
~
"4
..
a

20

..

20 M
lO

32 M

156 M

74 M

27 M

...

39 M

108 M

184 M

US Registered Motor Vehicles (M)

U

l'

1930

1940

'

I
1950

'

I
1960

I
1970

I
1980

I
1990

Fig. 15. Death rateI due to road traflc and clrculating vebicles. Death rateI due to motor vehide
traflc appear to be largely independent 01 the nnmber 01 vehicles in circulation and stable around 12
per l00,/MN) per year since Henry Ford's times. We seem to be 'aciDi here anotber basic instinct in risk
management. Data Irom [5).

C. MARCHETTI

88

Km

Meter
100,000

10-2

10,000

lO-'

+ Cars

_Buses

2-Wheelers

'--'~.~
10

1,000

101

;;;---

al' ways ,"' '

'Waterways "'
-

1800

~.I-'

---'"T'--""1'

102

- ...,...
,

,--R I

1825

1850

1975

..
..

1900

::A'Ir

\\

I
I
'.
TGV

'

1925

1950

1975

"'

100

lO
2000

Fig. 16. TechDical inDOvatioD in tnnsport 88d tlle i.cin mobWty for Franee. DuriDI the lat
200 years transport technology ha been in search of speed at accessible COlO. About every KoDdratiev
cyde a new basic mode! of traDSportation is introdueed. The last ODewas the airplane; the next ODewW
most probably be the Maglev. The .are of the fastal mode of transport In tbe time badlet of the traveler
keep increasing, with the COlO decreasiDI aDd bis disposable income increasiog. The increase in me8n
speed for tbe last 200 yean for Fra.ce appean to be a fairly stable 3070per year tak1DI iDtO account 811
mixes of transport modes, ne basic drive of man's territoriai IDstlDct is behiDd tbis tecllnologlcal evolution.
The cbart reporls distance traveled per day on vebides (4).

References
I. Abler, R., Adams, J.S., andOould, P., S/JtICiIlIOrganiZQtioll:TMGeogrupilen's VlewoltM World, Prentice
Hall, London, UK, 1972.
2. Doxiadis, C.A., and Papaioannu, J.O., Ecumenopolis: The lnevitable City or tbe Future, Atene, 1974.
3. FederaJPolytechnic School or Lausanne (Ecole Polytecbnique Federale de Lausanne), SwissMetro: Etude
p.-eliminair (preliminary study) SETS-AI67-OFEN-ITEP, 1991.
4. Oriibler, A., me Rise and FaU 01 In/rastructures. Thesis, Physica VerI.., Heidelberg, Gerrnany, 1989.
S. V.S. Department or Commerce, Hislorictl/ Statislics 0/1 1M U.S. Coioniai TlnIes to /970, Washington,
DC, 1975.
6. Zahavi, Y., me "UMO~ Proiecl. Project No. DOT -RSPA-DPB, 2-79-3, V.S. i)epartment or Transport,
Washington, DC, 1979.
7. Zahavi, Y., TM UMOT -Urban IlIleractio/lS, Repon No. DOT -RSPA-DPB-l0n, V.S. i)epartment or Transport, Washington, DC, 1981.
8. Zipf, O.K., Humall Bellavior and tM PriIlCipies 01 Larst E;fforI, WashingtOD, DC, 1972.
ReceiVftl16 November 1992; IYYtWtl1 ~pt_be,

1993.

ti