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NIE 11-6-56: Capabilities and Trends of Soviet Science and Technology (1956)
NIE 11-6-56: Capabilities and Trends of Soviet Science and Technology (1956)
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5906
SECRET
N 0: 1.l
308
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NUMBER 11-6-56
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2'6~:~:.6
9 October 1956
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Submitted bv the
DIREC'l'()R OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The JoUowlng tnteUigence organfzatlon.s participated tn the
preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency
and the fnteUigence organf.zation3 ot tM Departments of
State, the Armv, the NaVJJ, the AfT Force, The Jofnt StatJ, and
the Atamlc Enerw Comm~~on.
Concurred in bJI the
DISSEMINATION NOTICE
DISTRIBuTION:
White Hou1e
National security councU
Depo.rtmeni o! State
Department o! Defense
Opero.tlons ~ CoorcllnaUng Board
Atomic Energy Commission
Federal Bureau of Investigation
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. ...
.f,
SJ!fGH:I!iT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Paragraph
Conclusions
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. . . .
I. Administrative Factors
Basic Attitude of the Regime
Organization . . .
Planning and Control
II. Resources
Financial Support
Educational Institutions
Manpower . . . .
Distribution of Effort .
Quality of Manpower .
Research Facilities and Equipment
Collection and Dissemination .
Satellite and Chinese Resources
Foreign Aid Programs
'
. 12-14
. 15-17
. 18-22
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
23-26
27-33
34-37
38-41
42
43-45
46-49
50
51-53
. 54-56
.
.
.
.
57-58
59-a2
63-a4
ss-as
.
.
.
.
.
.
1-3
4-7
8
9-10
11-14
15-19
20-22
23-26
27-28
29-30
SBORB'I'
1-11
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BLANK PAGE
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.20 4003
Paragraph
2-3
4-6
7-9
. 10-13
1
2
3-0
7
8-14
. 15-20
. 21-24
. 25
5ECR13'i'
. 1-6
iii
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DECLASSIFIED
Authority NND 004003
SEG'RET
AND TECHNOLOGY
THE PROBLEM
To assess current capabilities and trends in Soviet science and technology and to
estimate future potential in this field.
I
CONCLUSIONS
2. The USSR
has about four-fifths as
I
many living scientific and technical graduates as tp.e US. We believe that the
USSR has a slightly greater number of
1
scientific and technical graduates than
"Science" is used in this estimate to denote the
natura.i' sciimces lncludltig such fields as mathematics, biology, and the agricultural and health
sciences. The estimate is focussed, h owever, on
scientific capabWtles related to national power,
and most of the detalled discussion in its appendices is devoted to the physical sciences and their
;p~icatlon!>.
.
1
SEiORET
4. The Soviet scientific effort, closely controlled in hine with state plaiming and
party direbtion, has been focussed preponderantly on the building of a strong
industrial !base
and the .development of
I
modern weapons, to the relative neglect
I
of other fields. Although close research
controls ari.d the high priority of militaryindustrial !development will continue, we
believe th~t increasing Soviet scientific
resources ;win permit greater flexibility,
and that individual initiative will be encouraged,j basic research in new fields
will be undertaken, and more scientific
and techtiical effort will be allocated to
agricultur~ and the consumer sector of
I
the economy. (Paras. 12, 15-21, 57-58,
63)
!
1
5. The quality of Soviet science and technology as! measured by personal competence, training, research facilities, and
achievemJn
ts varies widely. In all these
.
I
aspects, the best in the USSR compares
well with jthe best in the Western world,
but the average, though good, is still bel
low Weste,rn standards. In general, quality is high in fields related to military and
heavy irldustrial
development, where
I
some outstanding
advances have been
I
made. W, e believe that the unevenness
in the quality
of Soviet science and techt
.
nology will gradually diminish. (Paras.
I
42-4.;:5156, 62-63, 65-67; Appendices)
OEIORE'i'
(Para. 68)
DISCUSSION
I. ADMINISTRATIVE FACTORS AFFECTING
I
ment of Soviet scientific progress. More recently, however, Soviet leaders have recognized and taken steps to overcome the deleterious effects on their scientific development
of this extreme insularity. They have emphasized that scientists must learn from abroad,
as well as from Soviet experience. They have
instituted a far wider and more systematic
dissemination of foreign scientific information and a new policy of encouraging contacts
and exchanges between Soviet scientists and
their professional counterparts outside the
Communist sphere. These changes from the
restrictive policies of the Stalin period have
probably stimulated creative work in many
fields.
14. Scientists as a class constitute one of the
privileged groups within the USSR. They enjoy a high social position and are well paid.
In addition, many scientists receive large
monetary prizes, honorary awards, and other
benefits such as houses in town and country,
limousines, paid vacations at exclusive resorts,
and special stores in which to shop. Since
the death of Stalin, Soviet scientists have enjoyed a new degree of personal security and
professional freedom from ideological interference with their work, and relations between
the scientific community and the regime have
improved.
OS ORE'%'
II
SEQ RET
Organization
I
15. Academy of Sciences. All Soviet research
' The Adademy of Sciences, USSR, is directly res ponsible to the Council of Ministers, USSR, and
the Union Republic academies are responsible to
the col.mclls of ministers of their respective
Union Republics <see organization chart, following page). In addition to natural science as discussed :in this paper, the Academy and its affilia~
a lso r es ponsible for similar activities in
th~ h!nnanities, law, and social sciences.
:ue
our National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics laboratories, where both basic and applied
research are conducted. The ministerial institute category also includes the Academy of
Medical Sciences under the Ministry of Public
Health, and the Academy of Agricultural Sciences under the Ministry of Agriculture.
17. Higher Educational Institutions. Since
World War II, higher educational institutions
have devoted increasing attention to research
in both theoretical and applied sciences.
Nearly half of all Soviet scientists are employed in such institutions. Since they are
concerned primarily with teaching, they devote proportionately less time to research than
the scientists employed by the academies and
ministerial institutes.
Planning and Control
18. Administrative Control. Soviet scientific
research and development, like other Soviet
activities, is subject to centralized planning
and party control. On the basis of established
broad plans, each research organization works
out its own annual program and coordinates
it with appropriate bureaus of the Academy
or ministerial directorates. The precise nature and extent of party control is not known,
but all scientific organizations are known to
have party units, which probably participate
in developing the research programs as well
as exercise general supervisory and troubleshooting functions. In addition, research programs are subject to approval by operational
planning agencies such as the State Economic
Commission for Current Planning.
19. The effects of the attempt to apply planning principles to scientific enterprise are
mixed. The large size and diversity of the
total scientific effort complicates the coordination of research plans. Moreover, research
pla nning is compartmentalized by administrative organization and in practice there is
a great deal of duplication. As a partial
remedy, in the past year the Academy of Sciences has set up committees to coordinate
a limited number of specific activities between various ministerial institutions and the
Academy.
SEGH:ET
CONiiiD&NTIAL
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State Planni~g
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Agencies 1
Academy of
Sciences
Departments
r--
rl
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Ministry of
Higher Education
A Typical Ministry~
Chief ScientificTechnical
Directorate
Division of
Scien!ific
Research Work
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Chief Directorates!
of Production
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Chief DirectwateJ
of Ed~ca.tionol
lnshtuhons
Dl~~dorates of
Universities
ond Speclaliz:ed
Institutes
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II
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I
Research
Institutes
Research
Institutes
Research
Institutes
Plants and
Plant
laboratories
25627 9 -5~
EONFIBENfiAL
Specializ:ed
Higher
Educational
Institutions
and their
Installations
Universities and
Specializ:ed
Higher Educational
Institutions
and
their Installations
20. The g~neral Soviet tendency to overplanning and excessive bureaucracy is likely to
hamper the enterprise, creativeness, and crossfertilization which contribute so heavily to
progress in scientific inquiry. Constant pressure for fu4mment of planned goals may also
tend~to-lo~er the quality of Soviet scientific
output. While failure of fulfillment is notalways pu~hed, it is an invitation to criticism
and possibly serious consequences. Meeting
planned schedules
sometimes leads to poor
I
quality wo~k and a tendency to undertake
only easily-accomplished projects. The Soviet
government has recently attempted to make
scientific plans more flexible in order to encourage more initiative and responsibility.
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Financial Support
23. The Soviet govemment classifies research
and development expenditures in two main
groupings: (a) the financing of scientific research establishments, and (b) product development (i.e., outlays for ~mastering the production of new products" and for technical improvements and inventions). The first group
is believed to cover primarily research and development in the strict sense of the term,
which includes basic and applied research and
its application to new uses up to the point of
design and production engineering. Funds
appropriated for this purpose are included in
the Soviet budget category concerned with
expenditures on education, health, and social
wellare. The second group (product development) includes design and production engineering, experimental production, testing,
prototype production, and a variety of associated activities; funds appropriated for these
purposes are not explicity indicated in the
Soviet budget.
24. Announced expenditures for scientific research establishments in 1955 were 11.6 billion rubles. The plan for the present year
calls for an increase to 13.6 billion rubles,
which is 70 percent greater than the amount
allocated in 1951 (eight billion rubles) . Over
the last few years these announced expenditures have increased at a slightly greater rate
than the gross national product, and now represent about one percent of GNP.3 However ,
US government expenditures for research and
development, In categories comparable to the
Soviet "scientific research establishments" category, totalled $2.1 billion In FY 1955 and are
expected to be about $2.6 billion in FY 1957. The
latter figure is about 0.6 percent of us GNP. It
is roughly estlmated that the comparable US
nongovernment expenditure is about equal to
these figures. Thus, total US expenditures In
these categol'les are probably somewhat more
than one percent of US GNP.
SRCRE'f
Educational Institutions
I
27. Contin~ed expansion of Soviet scientific
and technical manpower reserves is assured
II
by the Soviet educational system. This system concentrates heavily on training scientists, technicians, and skilled labor. The Soviet 10-year school system, which, in terms
of classroom hours, is roughly equivalent to
the American 12-year system, is under expansion. The Soviets have announced that by
1960, 10 years of primary and secondary education will be universally available.
28. We believe the average graduate of a regular Soviet 10-year school to be somewhat
better trained in the elements of science than
an average American high school graduate.
Training in mathematics and other sciences
is emphasized (comprising more than 40 percent of total course work in the upper grades),
teacher training is improving, and the ratio of
students to teachers is. decreasing. Since
many graduates of the greatly enlarged 10year school must now enter nonprofessional
jobs, the curriculum has been changed to include vocational subjects such as machine
operation and practice farming.
29. The Soviet educational system includes
SEORET
L _ _______ _ L...- - -- - -- - - -- - --
--
in the agricultural field, does the present quality of Soviet higher education in science and
technology appear to be decidedly below US
average standards.
33. At the post-graduate level, there are nearly 500 institutions authorized to conduct training for the Kandidat degree, and 60 percent
of these are authorized to accept dissertations
for the higher degree of Doktor. Both of these
degrees are conferred by a special commission
of the Ministry of Higher Education. The
Kandidat degree requires at least three years
of graduate study, two foreign languages, and
a dissertation. In the physical sciences, engineering, and some of the health sciences, it
represents training roughly equivalent to or
slightly lower than that of the US Ph.D. or
D.Sc. In some of the biological sciences, notably in agriculture, however, the Kandidat is
believed closer to the US master's degree.
The degree of Doktor has no exact equivalent
in the US.
Manpower:.
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SEORET
SECRET
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Distribution : of the Scientific Effort
OElORBT
ORE~
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10
in some cases the USSR has . gained significantly from such operations.
47. The most obvious exploitation of non-soviet Bloc ~cientific-technical knowledge has
been in military equipment, especially nuclear
energy, ele~tronics, guided missiles, and aircraft. The USSR exploited equipment which
it received under lend-lease or which fell into
its hands dOring World War II. In the Korean
conflict it ~cquired many US items of recent
design. It: also benefited greatly in postwar
years from the transfer of German scientists
and technicians into the USSR, and from the
declassifica~ion and release of information by
the US and.the UK, particularly in electronics
and radar Western technical and trade publications, particularly those of the United
States, continue to contain a wealth of detail
concerning1 the development and characteristics of n~w military equipment, and are
readily available to the USSR. These factors
have saved ',several years of development time
in some fields.
48. The USSR currently assists research workers by an Jxtensive program for the dissemination and exchange of both foreign and
domestic scientific information. Scientific
and technibal meetings and conferences are
held frequ~ntly. Numerous scientific books,
journals, and monographs of domestic and
foreign scientific information as well as translations, abstracts, and indexes are now readily
available. ~he All-Union Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of the Academies of Sciences publishes monthly abstract
journals surveying several thousand Soviet
and foreigrt journals, and also weekly information bulletins for industry. Thus, at least
in high priority fields, Soviet scientists have
access to the full range of published worldwide scientific research.
49. A considerable portion of Soviet research,
including ~ilitary and other sensitive projects,
is not published in open literature. This
restriction probably does not seriously hamper
the dissemi~ation of information among those
persons having an obvious and direct need to
know. However, secrecy denies useful information to investigators in related fields and
thuthampers general scientific progress. This
Chinese Resources
50. East Germany and Czechoslovakia, and to
numbers of scientists, engineers, and technicians to other Bloc countries, including Communist China, since World War II. Since late
1955, the export by Soviet Bloc countries of
scientific-technical personnel to underdeveloped, non-Bloc countries has been rapidly expanded both in numbers of persons, which
now total several thousand, and in the number of recipient countries involved. Bloc technical aid has been concentrated mainly in
Egypt, Syria, and the South Asian countries- India, Burma, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
and Indonesia. Communist China's first offer
of any magnitude was made to Cambodia in
April 1956.
52. In addition to sending technical personnel
abroad, the USSR has for some years been
providing scientific and technical education
at its own institutions to substantial numbers
SEGRii:T
SECRET
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55~
11
is
56. The qualitative capacity of Soviet scientific and technical resources, however, is illustrated by current achievements in the military field. The high calibre of nuclear research is evident from the relatively early
dates at which nuclear and thermonuclear
explosionS were achieved. The Soviet guided
missile program is extensive and well advanced, and Soviet plans for earth satellite
launchings are similar to those of the US.
Aeronautical research in the USSR is generally equal to that in the US, with excellent
capability in theoretical aerodynamics and
improving competence in its applications. In
hydrodynamics Soviet theoretical research has
been equal and in some respects superior to
Western research. However, the lack of an
experimental research program has led to a
failure to apply its results. Military endproducts show effective adap~tion and improvement of complicated foreign equipment
SECRIST
12
of investigation, though still within the framework of the national economic plan and in
accordance with the principle that the function of science is service to the state.
Manpower
59. As yet there have been no indications that
Soviet rates of growth in scientific and technical manpower will slacken, and Soviet plans
call for increasing the numbers of graduates
and post-graduates. Reasons for this continued high rate of expansion are to be found
in the needs arising from the rapidly expanding Soviet economy, in the belief of Soviet
leaders that further increases in scientific and
technical manpower will improve economic
productivity, and in the Soviet intent to chaJ~
lenge the Wes~ in economic competition.
60. If present trends continue, the numbers '
of Soviet scientists, engineers, and technicians
will increase, in the period through 1961, considerably more rapidly than in the US, and I
by about 1961 aggregate Soviet manpower in
these categories would be about equal to that
of the US. The number of Soviet scientific
and technical graduates per year will probably
continue to increase through 19_61, leveling off
for a period thereafter, in part because of the
low birth rates of the World War II years.
(See Appendix D, Figures 8 and 9.)
61. In the engineer category, we estimate that
the Soviet supply will be generally adequate to
carry out internal objectives, and that substantial numbers could be employed in export
industries and in scientific-teclmical missions
abroad without .significant detriment to domestic programs. On the other hand, beca use
of increased demands for nonprofessional
technical personnel, the deficiency in this
category will continue through 1961, although
it will be significantly reduced by the large
training program designed to produce such
technicians. Similarly, because of increasing
demands within the Bloc, as well as demands
created by Soviet technical aid programs in
non-Bloc countries, we believe that shortages
of scientists will continue through this period.
G2. As the large number of postwar graduates
gain experience and assume positions of leadership there s~ould be a general rise in the
OEORBl'
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Distributidn of Effort
63. The USSR will continue to give very high
priority to :r esearch related to the development
of weapons systems. Up to the present time,
the Soviet ieaders appear to have concentrated
their highest-grade scientific resources in military and bbic industrial fields at the expense
of other areas of the economy, and we believe
this policyj will be continued when necessary
for the attainment of priority goals. Increasing Soviet 1 scientific resources, however, will
probably make it possible for the USSR to
devote gre~ter efforts to basic research without hindering military development. In addition, mot e resources will probably be allocated to scientific effort in those fields which
until the present have had relatively low priority, including agriculture, public health, and
consumer goods.
I
64. The SoViet technical aid program will almost certainly expand in countries already
receiving Soviet technical aid and will probably. be ex~nded to other countries. We estimate that the USSR will continue to expand
its technid tl aid program on a selective basis
in the un~erdeveloped countries of Eurasia
and Africa and in Latin America. Soviet scientific and technical resources will almost
certainly b~ adequate to support a continued
and moderately expanded program of scientific and technical aid to underdeveloped countries witho:u t serious detriment to domestic
programs.
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Capacity for Future Advances
65 . ....We-believe that the USSR will continue to
mak~ impottant
progress in the fundamental
I
sciences. It is likely to break new ground in
13
OEOREC'
14
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OECRD'f'
SEGHET
15
APPENDIX A
SOVIET CAPABILITIES IN MAJOR SCIENTIFIC FIELDS
Physics
1. The present capabilities of the USSR in important fields of physics are gene~ally co:r;nparable to those of the leading nations of the
5. During the last year the USSR has anwest. While the scope of Soviet research in
.
nounced that it has a number of particle acphysics, in terms of range of probl~ms. under
celerators,
including a synchro-cyclotron, the
investigation, is less than in the US, its quallargest
machine
of its type in existence, which
ity in areas given greatest priority is consistwas
allegedly
rebuilt
a few years after its
ently high. For basic knowledge in fields of
completion
in
1949
to
attain
its present energy~
lower priority, reliance has been placed on the
of
680
Mev.
The
USSR
also
announced that
. published work of foreign scientists. .
it expected to complete in 1956 a 10 :Bev
2. The USSR has shown particular strength
proton synchrotron; this would be the largest
in theoretical physics (e.g., theory of quantum
accelerator in the world. The US is presently
electrodynamicS and elementary particles),
operating a six Bev proton sjnchrotron, the
solid state physics (e.g., semiconductors), and
largest currently operating; higher energy
low temperature physics (e.g., first experimachines will not be completed until 1960.
mental obsetvation of second sound in liquid
However, the US has more accelerators of
heliUm, and Landau's theory of superfiuidity).
lower capacity than has the USSR and is
We believe that in these fields the USSR will
therefore able to carry on a greater volume
continue to: concentrate its efforts on key
of research in this field.
problems an~ will make significant advances.
6. The USSR has recently organized the Joint
'
3.. We estimate that, if present trends conInstitute for Nuclear Research, which has as
tinue, within a decade the USSR will have
its announced purpose international cooperaachieved eqti.ality with the US in scope, magtion in solving the most important problems
itude, and qtiality of research in physics and
of contemporary physics. The new organizathat the number of active Soviet physicists
tion will incorporate the Laboratory of Nuwill exceed 1that of the US. Emphasis has
clear Problems and the Laboratory of High
been given thus far to theoretical aspects at
Energy Physics (sites of the 680 Mev and 10
the expense bf the experimental, but, as numBev accelerator, respectively). The Joint Inbers of phy~icists increase, a better balance
stitute will also acquire a Laboratory of Thewill probably result. Facilities for experiOletical Physics which will include an elec1
mental work should be adequate to support
tronic computer department, and a LaboraI
research pr~grams.
tory of Neutron Physics which will have a
I
high
neutron flux experimental reactor. An
'
accelerator
for multicharged ions will be built.
Nuclear
Pnysics
.
I
Also being considered are cosmic ray lab4. Present d.pabilities of the USSR in nuclear
oratories and other facilities. All facilities of
physics rese~rch are estimated to be second
the Joint Institute will be located in the USSR.
only to thosel of the US. Work in high energy
Representatives from all of the Soviet Bloc
physics has been of good quality and comparacountries have signed an agreement to parble tR9ugh probably not equal to that of the
ticipate in this Institute, and it has been anWest.-#- Cosmic ray research has been of parnounced that membership will . be open to
' quality and on a par with that
non-Bloc countries.
ticularly high
SBGRE'r
Mathematis
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8. Soviet scientists display outstanding ability
in pure m athematics, and have achieved international ~recognition in nonlinear mechanics, probability theory, and topology. Although top: level mathematicians are probably fewer ~n the USSR than in the US, the
Soviet lag ip numbers will probably .be considerably leSsened in the next 10 years because
of the emphasis on mathematics training
during the ~ast decade. Soviet wealmesses in
applying theoretical mathematics to other
branches of science and technology may be
largely corr~cted by the growing emphasis on
channeling ! the results of mathematics research into high priority areas such as weapons developinent. Thus Soviet over-all mathematical capabilities may be brought close to
those of th~ US.
I
Astronomy :
9. The scierice of astronomy appears to be developing rapidly in the USSR under an effort
now compatable to that devoted to it in the
US. Although Soviet astronomical instrumentation ihnot as fully developed as that in
the US, asttonomical facilities have been improving ste~dly. Soviet literature in astronomy touches!on all phases of the science and
shows emphasis on work in stellar astronomy,
the-sju~y of variable stars, solar physics, the
study of mirior planets, and cosmogony. 1 One
sub-field in ~hich Soviet astronomy is signifi-
16
Geophysics
f
11. Soviet capabilities in the geophysical sciences, including meteorology, hydrology, oceanography, geology, and terrestrial and arctic
geophysics, are generally comparable with
those of leading Western nations. Among the
geological sciences, the USSR has maintained
outstanding capabilities in engineering geology, permafrost research; and geochemical and
geological mineral prospecting methods. Soviet geophysical research conducted on ice
floes in the Central Arctic and at many permanent stations has materially aided shipping
operations along the Northern Sea Route and
could be of great importance for military operations in the Arctic area.
12. The USSR has one of the most comprehensive and well-planned programs of any of
the countries participating in the International Geophysical Year (1957-1958) . The
USSR will probably intensify its central Arctic
research, and already has a large and wellequipped expedition in the Antarctic. During
the next few years the already high Soviet
capabilities in geophysics will almost certainly
be substantially increased through procurement and analysis of the voluminous data arising from IGY activities, which will be available for the first time on a world-wide scale.
13. The USSR is currently engaged in the
development of earth satellites for research
at very high altitudes and we believe that its
Radio astronomy Is treated under. electronics, ln
paragraph 26 below.
OEORE'i'
17
efforts will be intensified during the International Geophysical Year. Research of this
nature is ~ikely to enhance Soviet capabilities
for furth~r development of guided missiles
and -result in increased knowledge in many
fields of g~physics. Rockets and guided missiles currently estimated to be within Soviet
capabiliti~ could also be effectively utilized
in gathering upper atomsphere data. Important m:eteorological advances could result
from a cu:rrent Soviet program involving the
use of high-speed electronic digital computer..s
in weather forecasting, and from high altitude and weather control research that will
probably receive high priority.
_14. In
16. Physical Chemistry. The USSR has conducted important research on combustion,
flame propagation, and detonation, occasionally in advance of Western research. Soviet
physical chemistry is strong~t in the study
of fundamental mechanisms of combustion
and reaction. In the well-developed field of
basic combustion chemistry, further advances
are probable which will be of use in combustion chamber design or in the selection of propellants. The USSR has for many years had
both outstanding scientists and many workers
generally versed in reaction kinetics, the concepts of free radicals, and the behavior of carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, and oxygen systems
at elevated temperature.
OEOR'S~
SB9RI!:T
Me.t qllurgy :
20. Soviet fundamental metallurgical research
18
Electronics
23. The USSR has a well balanced and extensive program in a number of basic science
areas which contribute significantly to electronics research and development (e. g., dielectrics, crystallography, semiconductors, and
ferrites). In addition, extensive and capable
work is being done on theoretical studies and
experimental research in areas which con tribute more indirectly to electronics research and
development (e. g., information and propagation theory). In other fields of basic science,
electronics is extensively used as a tool in botll
instrumentation and in control applications.
Recent SoViet radar designs reflect original
work of high quality.
24. In phases of basic electronics research in
which the USSR and the West have equal interest, the USSR is closely behind the West;
and in at least one case in which the USSR
has made special efforts, in communications
theory dealing with noise studies, it now leads.
We estimate that over the next 10 years Soviet scientists will .be capable of making significant further advances in the electronics
field, and will be generally on a par with the
West in most areas.
Soviet scientists have investigated the probability theory,
correlation analysis, and information theory
in an endeavor to obtain a comprehensive understanding of communications. The range
and depth of published native research is on
a par with unclassified research on the same
topics in the West. The type of resea rch implies that considerable classified research on
novel communications techniques, such as
squirt transmission and noise modulation, as
well as speech encryption devices and band
reduction systems, may be under way. While
no specific information is available on the
USSR's progress on these techniques, its classified research effort is probably also comparable to that of the US. We estimate that significant progress will be made . in applying
communica tions theory to such fields as data
25. Communications Theory.
8130REq?
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transmissi~n. data handling, and servo-mechanisms. One significant result may be the
achievement of communications systems
which are ~t once secure, reliable, and of high
caP.acity. j
Agricultural Sciences
29. For several decades preceding 1953, agricultural
science was accorded a very low pri26. Radio Astronomy. Soviet research capa1
ority
in
the Soviet Union, and progress was
bilities in r adio astronomy are believed to be
much
slower
in agriculture than in any other
comparable in quality to those of the West.
major
segment
of the economy. Research in
Significant Jwork has been performed in the
agricultural
science
was further restricted
detection of weak signals in radio spectroduring
the
last
decade
of this period by Lyscopy and ib. meteor st~dies. This work indisenlm's
influence.
Currently,
however, Soviet
cates the attainment of a high levelof experiagriculture
enjoys
a
considerably
higher primental proficiency which could have direct
ority.
Present
efforts
to
send
agricultural
application~ in military fields of microwave
specialists to the US, recent widespread appliradio reception.
I
cations of US research findings, publisheq.
statements
by Deputy Premier Matskevich qn
Medicine bnd the Biological Sciences
the
superiority
of US agricultural research
I
.
27. The USSR has made impressive progress and technology and direct observations made
in medical. research,
and its work . in this field
1n the USSR by US agriculturists- all indil
is more advanced than in most of the non- cate that the USSR is attempting to make
medical biological disciplines. In the field of
improvements from a relatively low base of
hematology J the USSR has developed one of agricu_ltural research and technology.
the world's largest and most complete r~earch
30. The Sixth Five~Year Plan.cails for a douborganizatioris for the study of blood, its derivatives an'd plasma extenders. Important ling of grain output, with 80 percent of the
increase to be achieved by increasing per acre
advances h~ve also been made in biophysics,
yield through utilizing the results of research
epidemioiogy, radiobiology, and physiology.
and
technology. Evidence indicates that maMajor strength has been displayed in Soviet
jor
emphasis
will be placed on improving fertiresearch on Ithe physiology and functioning of
lizer
technology,
on development and utilizathe central :nervoqs system. In certain subtion
of
herbicides,
new insecticides and fungi.fields of Soviet microbiological research, such
cides,
on
developing
disease-resistant and
as those reldted to genetics and biochemistry,
high-yielding
varieties
of
crop plants, on imthe quality 6f work is low, though improving.
provement
of
vaccines
and
antibiotics for ani.
I
28. The major problems investigated by Somal diseases, on fOQd technology, especially
viet clinical lscientists will probably continue . preservation and storage methods, and on
to be those of heart disease, cancer and inmethods for improving livestock quality. In
fectious disekses, and those related to indusaddition, the USSR will almost certainly con..
tinue to strive for a technological breaktrial hygiene.' In the more
fundamental areas
of the medicb-biological sciences the emphasis
through in photosynthesis research in the
probably will be on using developments in the
hope of developing techniques for synthesizing
physical sci~nces for further research on the
food. In summary, Soviet progress in agribasic natur~ of living matter, disease, and cultural research and technology over the next
radiation datnage. In the aggregate, we befive years may result in substantial means for
improvement of the Soviet food supply.
lieve that thb USSR is now somewhat behind
.
- .,.
....
8130RBT-
II
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
SJ!lG:Rl!:T
20
APPENDIX 8
Petroleum jTechnology
Steel Technology
SE!CRE'fl
SECRET
techniques on an ambitious scale in its newly
constructed, plants.
'
5. The Magilitogorsk
and Kuznetsk plants and
I
several others are the equal of the best in the
US .in terms of output of iron and steel per
unit of productive capacity. Investment for
technological improvements at these plants,
above all iil the furnace facilities, has been
unstinted iil a conscious effort to outstrip the
best plants~ the world and to serve as models
for other Soviet steel works. Output per worker at Magnitogorsk is twice the average for the
Soviet steel ,i ndustry.
6. The .application of new technology to dif'
ferent segments
of Soviet ferrous metallurgy
has varied markedly. The Soviet effort has
been directed primarily to blast and open
pearth furnace processes, and on high temperature alloy steels, widely used in military
end-item ptoduction.
In comparison, rolling
I
mill and finishing line technology has lagged,
The failure, to broaden the range of finishing
equipment has resulted in less variety of finished products to serve specific applications
than in the us.
I
o!
21
OE!ORET
12. Soviet ,aircraft and other weapons systems revealI a wide range in the quality of the
various parts and components. Those portions of th~ system that are critical to its performance are usually equal in quality to Western counterparts. Less critical portions may
be designe'd and constructed in a manner
that result;.'> in lower levels of quality than
those required in the US. We believe that the
Soviet philbsophy is to obtain weapons <'good
enough" r~ther than "best in all respects."
The result of this philosophy is the acceptance
of small reductions in performance if those
reductions Ieffect significant savings in time
and effort.;
I
22
SEORET
23
APPENDIX C
Nuclear Energy
I
1. Details of the Soviet nuclear energy program ar~ discussed in Nm 11-2-56, published
8 June 1,956. 1 In brief, the USSR has shown
the ability to produce fissionable materials in
quantitY, for the military and research phases
of the nuclear energy program and to develop
a variety of air-deliverable nuclear weapons
with yie~ds from a few kilotons to the megaton
range. ~t has also demonstrated a generally
well-developed capability for nuclear reactor
design ahd operation. The announced Soviet
nuclear ~lectric power pro~am for 2,000-2,500
megawatts of electric power by 1960 is of considerable magnitude but could be attained
with a yery high priority effort. Successful
develop~ent of reactors for aircraft propulsion applications probably will not be realized
for som~ time. It is also improbable that the
USSR ~~ produce economical power from
thermo~uclear processes for many years.
Guided Missiles
I
.....
,
,
'
3. Soviet literature indicates that in its theAircraft and Related Weapons
Systems~
I
OECRE'i'
SEO'RE'F
row the gap and may equal the West in applying theoreti~al aerodynamic knowledge during the nex~ five years.
I
24
"
8. For about the last 50 years, Soviet theoretical research in hydrodynamlcs has been
equal . to, and in some respectS superior to,
Western research. Only recently, however,
have there been enough model basins and
other research facilities for an adequate experimental hydrodynamics research program
to supplement theoretical research: Consequently, the failure of naval architects in
some cases to incorporate refinements of design reflects the lack of an adequate experimental research program.
7. The Soviet research and development program in gro~nd force weapons has yielded
many new and improved designs which h ave
appeared in ~eapons and other items of equipment in the last few years. The primary Soviet objectiv~ in the development of new
ground force Iweapons is to increase firepower
and mobility !fOr ground troops. In this context, we estinjate that over the next few years
the....9S_SR will be able to develop new weapons ""to~ fin t~e few existing gaps in ground
force weapons systems, such as certain self-
'
OEORE'F
D~CLASSIFIED
- i.
26
. NET air ~earch radar appears to be ail advanced deSign based upon native effort. The
airborne intercept radar set in the FRESCO
"D" ftghtJr,
although of comparatively short
I
range, h~ complex search and track characteristics riot similar to those of any other
kn.own r~dar, and the FLASHLIGHT is
equipped ,with an airborne intercept radar
which is probably different and considerably
larger than that of the FRESCO "D". We believe that' Soviet research and development
capabilities in the field of radar will be gen'
. those of the West over
erally comparable
w1th
the next f$w years.
17. Communications. Soviet electronics research an.d development establishments are
capable of providing communications equipment equ~l in quality to that of the West.
Although to date Soviet communications
equipment designs have been conventional,
with little indication of miniaturization, recent Soviet advances in semiconductor research and in the development of transistors
should permit the design of lighter, more compact comtrlunications equipment. Improved
Soviet competence in television research and
development will probably result in a greatly
increased ~ndustrial and military use of tele1
vision.
18. Navigation. In the development of air
navigatiort equipment, the USSR has relied
rather he~vily on conventional and dependable instruments, the principles of which have
I
been proven through wide use by Western
nations. improved airborne navigational aids,
including !automatic astronavigation and visual omnitange systems, will probably come
into morel extensive use during the next several years. Future Soviet techniques for long
and short; range air navigation are expected
to be adaptations of well-established basic
theory forj the most part.
I
'
SEORET
OBORET
,~
25. In addition to its capabilities for developing individual weapons and items of equipment, the USSR has shown the capacity to
develop complete weapons systems, by timing
and integrating individual developments in
vast and complex programs using resources
and scientific and technical skills from many
contributory fields. A good example is the
postwar development of a modem air defense
system, which now includes a series of jet interceptors equipped with airborne-intercept
radar, modern early-warning and ground control equipment, communications and dataprocessing equipment, radar-directed antiaircraft artillery. and surface-to-air guided missiles. Similarly, Soviet development of a longrange nuclear-air offensive weapons system
includes not only the long-range bombers
themselves, but also air-deliverable nuclear
weapons and facilities for refueling the delivery aircraft in flight. In general, we estimate
that Soviet weapons systems development capabilities are well advanced and compare favorably with those of the West. Despite the
increasing complexities of modern warfare, we
estimate that the USSR will be capable of continuing the successful development of weapons systems necessary for up-to-date air,
ground, and naval forces.
. ..
27
SEORB'F
SEOHET
28
APPENDIX D
a. Data from the prewar statistical compilations have proved consistent in other respects
with subsequently ascertained facts.
b. The manpower figures in the 1941 Soviet
plan, which was classified by the USSR but
seized by the Germans and later published,
agreed well with the information which ~ad
previously appeared in open Soviet publications.
c. Data since the war, while generally
scarce, ,are consistent with prewar trends.
While an analysis of the Soviet Statistical
Handbook published in 1956 has not been completed, a preliminary examination reveals no
significant discrepancies with the data used
in the calculations.
4. The Commission of Human Resources and
Advanced Training_of the National Research
Council and the Department of Health, Education and Welfare supplied most of the material upon which the US figures are based.
Some adaptations and extensions of US and
Soviet materials have been made in order to
reduce them to comparable categories.
5. The data for both the USSR and the US are,
in some places, estimated or incomplete. During the postwar period up to 1956, data for the
USSR have become increasingly scarce, while
for the US the reverse is true. In breaking
down raw data into more useful form and in
supplying data to fill gaps in certain categories or for certain years, statistical methods
have been used. The numerical data on scientific and technical personnel are believed
to be correct within plus or minus 10 percent.
O:SORET
I
companson dimcult. For the purposes of the
breakdown 1among scientific fields illustrated
in Figures 2, 3, 4, and 7 the sciences have been
categorized as follows:
a. Ph~sical sciences and engineering
Physics
ChElmistry
Ma~hematics
Metallurgy
Astronomy
Meteorology _
GeOlogy and geography
Engineering (mechanical, chemical,
civil, electrical, etc.)
Other fields based on physics, chemiStry, or the earth sciences (e.g.,
seismology)
I
'
:29
b. Agricultural Sciences
OSORET
Figure 1
CONF19EN1'1AI.-
6,400.000
living college and
university graduates
in all fields
.s
V'O
Vl
Q<
~
a.
lL
3,125,000
living graduates of
higher educational
i nstitu lions in all fields
V}
z.
Q
-.J
-.J
1,970,000
living scientific and
technical graduates
.
1,240,000
graduates employed in
scientific and
technical "'""'"""'
1,690,000
living scientific and
technical graduates
1,360,000
graduates employed in
scientific and
technical
280,000
scientists in
research and teaching
190,000
scientists in
research and teaching
0
USSR
us
25628 956
CONFIDENTIAL
_J
..
I
I
I.
I
Figure 2
CONFIBENTI~L
Total - J, 360.000
Total- 1,240,000
us
USSR
I
I
256 29 956
CONFI9ENTIAL
..
~UMBER
Figure 3
1930.56
I
I
II
I
I
I
Jo
,,
10
40~------~-------+--------~------+--------r------~--~
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
-USSR
--us
tO
9-56
CONFIDENliAL
I
I
I
_
L-~--_jL..._
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ I
Kondidats
I
Kandidats
USSR
79,000
80
USSR
Kand idots
Totol-79,000
-.i. .-
90
100
110
us
PhD's a nd DSc's
rotol- 57,000
These charts Jo not toke into account the foci that in some biological sciences, which molce up o port of
the agriculture ond health sciences, the Kondidot degree is more nea rly equivalent to the US master's
degree thon to t he Pl.. D. or D. Sc. Figures for US holders o f master's degre es ore no~ included.
2563 1 9-56
'
CONFIDEt.. TIAL
120
...
'
CONFIBENTIAl
Figur~
193356
10
a
7
:s<:
~
Soviet Kondidots
~
~
0 ~--L---L---L---L---~~~~--~--_.
19..12
'3~
'36
'38
1940
'42
'44
'46
25632 ! 9-56
I
CONFIBE~UIAL
'J~.a
19:so
. 280
- ,
I
240
'
USSR
'
---us
220 f-
'
200
/~
/,
v
1--
~
120
100
'
//
.-..
'
40
//
---.,...,.. \
-t'~
6o
'
/
I
80
f-
,.-'
\/
..--
1/
/
v
~.,
//
_,/
I -
,~
180 ~
1
20 1-
0
19JO
25633 956
I
'J2
'JtJ
'J6
'J8
1940
I
' 42
I
19~0
'52
1956
'-
Figure 7
AS OF MID-1956
II
By Place ol Employment
25~
in higher
educational
institutions
60~
90,000 in
physical sciences
and engrneering
225,000
47%
in physical. sciences
and engineering
80%
25634 9-56
CONFIDENTIAL
..
...
CONFI9ENTIAL
26o
2ll0
220
-ussR
--us
200
180
.-
,.
.#
##
16o
lliO
t-
V)
Cl
_4~- .
1\
120
100 1-
.'
80
6o
~ ~'-... ...
\ /
io-" .....
110
20
/ \
I
-'
,j
'X
../'
####
tf
I
, ....
#-
~:
I
I
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/I
##
II
~-
...-
ptO/ectrons
. . -
0
19J8
I
19110
I
'112
'114
: !
r-
j_
'46
't~e
1950
'52
J
'.s4
's6
'58
196o
25635 9-56
CONFIDENTIAL
- -
..-
- - --
- - --
- - --
- - --
I_ _
<.
Figure 9
'3.6
J.ll
J .2
I
i
.3.0 1-
2.6
I
I
2.8
2.11
~'F
,
,,
..
V).
'2: 2.2
0
::J
_,
'
2,0
/
f-
1.2
I
1.0,
~'
;~~'
1 .~
I
#
#
_/
f-
1-- ProiKbon-
/
v
. /"""
.a
:V
!--
.2. '--
.6
I
'
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I
!'
0
1938
~
4'
I
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J
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'44
I
'46
'48
19SO
'52
I
'5/a
'56
I
'58
196o
.
Projection is l>osed on current enrolfmeots odiusted for attrition on the basis or past experience.
25636
9~56
I
=EONFIDENTIAL
.I
,~
..
BLANK PAGE
Sec et,_.