Jim Duncan's Market Report

Jim Duncan's Market Report
market update
CROZET
22932
Current prices for condominiums, townhomes, TICs on the market

Trends in pricing
Current levels of supply and demand
Value metrics
Report for the week of

Sunday June 6, 2010
Presented by Jim Duncan

434-242-7140
RealCentralVA.com/Nest Realty Group
www.RealCentralVA.com - [email protected]
Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2010. All Rights Reserved

www.altosresearch.com
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
City Overview CROZET

Real-Time Market Profile Trend THIS WEEK
Median List Price $ 247,650 The median condominium price in
Average List Price $ 245,305 CROZET this week is $247,650. The 12
Least Expensive Listing $ 159,900 condos have been on the market for
Most Expensive Listing $ 299,975 an average of 51 days.
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 140
Average Days on Market 51
Total Inventory 12
Absorbed This Week 0
Percent of Properties with Price Reductions 17 %
Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 25 %
Percent Flip (price increased) 17 %
Median Size (sq ft) 1,631 Demand measured by the Market
Median Number of Bedrooms 2.8
Action Index is increasing and days-on-
Median Number of Bathrooms 2.8
market is trending downward. Even as
Median Age 6
Altos Research Value Statistics more properties come available, these
Market Action Index Cold! Buyer's Market 16 are positive trends for the market.
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supply
relative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favor
the seller. See the section below for full details.
Trend Key
Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons. QUARTILES
Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which properties
sold. To get a tightly targeted understanding
of properties on the market, we break
each locale into quartiles. Each quartile
is 25% of the condos listed.
Characteristics per Quartile

Med. Ab- Avg.
Quartile Median Price Med. Sqft Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM
1 $ 299,900 1,925 3.0 3.0 3 3 0 0 79 Most expensive 25% of condos
2 $ 259,900 1,700 3.0 3.0 0 3 0 0 61 Upper-middle 25% of condos
3 $ 239,900 1,796 4.0 3.0 0 3 0 0 12 Lower-middle 25% of condos
4 $ 179,990 1,710 2.0 2.0 0 3 0 0 54 Least expensive 25% of condos
We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend

graphs below.
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CROZET 2

PRICE
The market has been on a downward
trend recently and this week, while
essentially flat, doesn't break us out of
that cycle.
QUARTILE PRICES
Often, we find insights by watching
pricing trends within the quartile
segments.
Prices have been mixed-to-negative
trends in recent weeks. Quartile 4 is
down, while the rest of the market is
basically flat. Look to the Market Action
Index to determine if this plateau is the
stage for a prolonged price decline.

PRICE AND VALUE

The market appears to be placing an
increasing premium on homes. When
list prices and price per square foot
consistently increase in tandem, as
they're doing now, you can often find
short-term investment opportunities.
Watch the Market Action Index for
persistent changes as a leading
indicator for these trends to flatten or
drop.
INVENTORY
Inventory has been climbing lately.
Note that rising inventory alone does
not signal a weakening market. Look to
the Market Action Index and Days on
Market trends to gauge whether buyer
interest is keeping up with available
supply.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

Property prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be
characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index The condo market in CROZET is
falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward
currently quite strongly in the Buyer's
correction.
zone (below 30). The 90-day Market
Action Index stands at 16. With several
months of inventory available at the
current sales rate, buyers should find
ample choice.
The Market Action Index has been

trending lower for several weeks while
prices have remained relatively stable.
If inventory continues to grow relative
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a to demand however, it is likely that we
statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. will see downward pressure on pricing.
An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")
because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will
typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold
Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at
the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES

Not surprisingly given the overall
Market Action Index, all quartiles are in
the Buyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
rate of demand for homes in the
quartile. Watch the quartile for changes
before the overall market shifts. Often
one end of the market (e.g. the low end)
will improve and signal a strengthening
market before the whole group changes.
The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my price
range?"

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

The properties have been on the
market for an average of 112 days. Half
of the listings have come newly on the
market in the past 84 or so days.
DOM PER QUARTILE

It is not uncommon for the higher
priced homes in an area to take longer
to sell than those in the lower
quartiles.

CROZET
Neighborhood Detail 22932
Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Median List Price $ 247,650 THIS WEEK
Average List Price $ 245,305 The median condominium price in
Least Expensive Listing $ 159,900 CROZET 22932 this week is $247,650.
Most Expensive Listing $ 299,975
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 140
Average Days on Market 51
Total Inventory 12
Absorbed This Week 0
Median Size (sq ft) 1,631 Demand measured by the Market
Median Number of Bedrooms 2.8
Action Index is increasing and days-on-
Median Number of Bathrooms 2.8
market is trending downward. Even as
Median Age 6
Altos Research Value Statistics more properties come available, these
Market Action Index Cold! Buyer's Market 16 are positive trends for the market.
PRICE
Prices in this zip code have been on a
downward trend recently and this
week, while essentially flat, doesn't
break us out of that cycle.

PRICE PER QUARTILE

In the quartile market segments, we see
price for this zip code in general with
price stagnation in recent weeks.
Quartile 4 is down, while the rest of the
market is basically flat. Look to the
Market Action Index to determine if this
plateau is the stage for a prolonged
price decline.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES

Med. Ab- Avg.
Quartile Median Price Med. Sqft Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM
1 $ 299,900 1,925 3.0 3.0 3 3 0 0 79 Most expensive 25% of condos
2 $ 259,900 1,700 3.0 3.0 0 3 0 0 61 Upper-middle 25% of condos
3 $ 239,900 1,796 4.0 3.0 0 3 0 0 12 Lower-middle 25% of condos
4 $ 179,990 1,710 2.0 2.0 0 3 0 0 54 Least expensive 25% of condos
INVENTORY
Inventory has been climbing lately.
Note that rising inventory alone does
not signal a weakening market. Look to
the Market Action Index and Days on
Market trends to gauge whether buyer
interest is keeping up with available
supply.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

The CROZET 22932 is quite strongly in
the Buyer's Market zone. The 90-day
Market Action Index stands at 16. With
several months of inventory available
at the current sales rate, buyers should
find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES

Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the
Buyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
levels of demand. Watch the quartiles
for changes before the overall market
shifts.
DAYS ON MARKET
The properties have been on the market
for an average of 51 days. Half of the
listings have come newly on the market
in the past 28 or so days. Watch the 90-
day DOM trend for signals of a changing
market.

DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon for the higher
priced properties in an area (Quartiles
1 and 2) to take longer to sell than
those in the lower quartiles.
About Altos Research Corporation

Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets across
the country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available
publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition to
the market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to the
best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estate
decision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other Altos
Research publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with a
licensed real estate agent or broker.
Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2010. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com

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Jim Duncan's Market Report

Current prices for condominiums, townhomes, TICs on the market

Report for the week of

Presented by Jim Duncan

Powered by Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2010. All Rights Reserved

City Overview CROZET

Characteristics per Quartile

1 $ 299,900 1,925 3.0 3.0 3 3 0 0 79 Most expensive 25% of condos

2 $ 259,900 1,700 3.0 3.0 0 3 0 0 61 Upper-middle 25% of condos

3 $ 239,900 1,796 4.0 3.0 0 3 0 0 12 Lower-middle 25% of condos

4 $ 179,990 1,710 2.0 2.0 0 3 0 0 54 Least expensive 25% of condos

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend