Professional Documents
Culture Documents
WEF Book
WEF Book
Chronic disease,
developed world
China economic
hard landing
Asset price
collapse
2nd
Retrenchment
from globalization
(developed)
Slowing Chinese
economy (<6%)
Pandemics
Asset price
collapse
Retrenchment
from globalization
Interstate and
civil wars
Pandemics
1st
2nd
Asset price
collapse
2010
Global governance
gaps
infrastructure
Fiscal crises
Breakdown of
critical information
Chronic disease
Slowing Chinese
economy (<6%)
Fiscal crises
Chronic disease
Retrenchment
from globalization
(developed)
Economic
Fiscal crises
infrastructure
Chronic disease
Breakdown of
critical information
Retrenchment
from globalization
(developed)
Asset price
collapse
2009
Retrenchment
from globalization
(emerging)
Global governance
gaps
Chronic disease
Slowing Chinese
economy (<6%)
2011
Environmental
Extreme energy
price volatility
Asset price
collapse
Geopolitical
conflict
Climate change
Fiscal crises
2011
Climate change
Biodiversity loss
Corruption
Flooding
Storms and
cyclones
2012
Geopolitical
Extreme volatility
in energy and
agriculture prices
imbalances
Food shortage
crises
Water supply
crises
Major systemic
financial failure
2012
Water supply
crises
Cyber attacks
Rising greenhouse
gas emissions
Chronic fiscal
imbalances
Severe income
disparity
2013
Societal
Diffusion of
weapons of mass
destruction
Chronic fiscal
imbalances
Water supply
crises
Major systemic
financial failure
2013
Mismanagement
of population
ageing
Water supply
crises
Rising greenhouse
gas emissions
Chronic fiscal
imbalances
Severe income
disparity
2014
Technological
Critical information
infrastructure
breakdown
Unemployment
and
underemployment
Water crises
Climate change
Fiscal crises
2014
Cyber attacks
Climate change
Unemployment
and
underemployment
Extreme weather
events
Income disparity
2015
Interstate conflict
with regional
consequences
Weapons of mass
destruction
Water crises
2015
High structural
unemployment or
underemployment
State collapse or
crisis
Failure of national
governance
Extreme weather
events
Interstate conflict
with regional
consequences
2016
Severe energy
price shock
Large-scale
involuntary
migration
Water crises
Weapons of mass
destruction
2016
Major natural
catastrophes
Interstate conflict
with regional
consequences
Extreme weather
events
Large-scale
involuntary
migration
2017
Major natural
disasters
Water crises
Extreme weather
events
Weapons of mass
destruction
2017
Massive incident
of data fraud/theft
Large-scale
terrorist attacks
Major natural
disasters
Large-scale
involuntary
migration
Extreme weather
events
5th
4th
3rd
2008
Asset price
collapse
2007
5th
4th
3rd
Middle East
instability
Chronic disease
in developed
countries
1st
2010
Asset price
collapse
2009
Asset price
collapse
2008
Asset price
collapse
Breakdown of
critical information
infrastructure
2007
Strategic Partners
Marsh & McLennan Companies
Zurich Insurance Group
Academic Advisers
National University of Singapore
Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania
Contents
4
Preface
By Klaus Schwab
Foreword
Executive Summary
Introduction
10
22
42
29
35
48
53
58
Conclusion
60
Appendices
68
Acknowledgements
Preface
Klaus Schwab
Founder and Executive Chairman
World Economic Forum
Foreword
Richard Samans
Head of the Centre for the Global Agenda,
Member of the Managing Board
Executive
Summary
Introduction
Part 1
Part 2
Part 1: Global
Risks 2017
Part 3
10
Part 1
Part 3
Part 2
11
Part 1
Part 2
1975
115
1982
110
1991
2001
105
2009
100
Part 3
95
0
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Unemployment and
underemployment
Profound social instability
Large-scale involuntary
migration
State collapse or crisis
Failure of climate-change
mitigation and adaption
Water crises
Part 1
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
United States
Eurozone
Society: Rebuilding
Communities
Issues of identity and culture were
central to the two most dramatic
Western political results of 2016, in the
United Kingdom and the United States.
This is part of a broader trend affecting
both international and domestic
politics. Across the European Union,
parties stressing national sovereignty
and/or values have prospered,21
boosted in part by migration flows that
GRPS respondents continue to point to
as a major geopolitical risk. Outside the
European Union, polarization in Turkey
has deepened since 2010,22 while
Russia has been expressing its national
13
Part 3
-14
Part 2
-2
Part 1
Technology: Managing
Disruption
12
Mean vote share (%)
Part 2
10
8
6
4
5.1%
Part 3
2
0
1970s
2000s
Source: Adapted from Inglehart and Norris (2016), drawing on Dring and Manow (2016). Parliaments and
government database (ParlGov) Elections dataset.
Note: Vote shares of populist-right parties in national parliamentary and European parliamentary elections in 24
European countries.
14
Part 1
Geopolitics: Strengthening
Cooperation
In a worrying sign of deteriorating
commitment to global cooperation,
states are stepping back from
mechanisms set up to underpin
international security through mutual
accountability and respect for common
norms. For example, 2016 saw Russia,
South Africa, Burundi and Gambia
withdraw from the International
Criminal Court, and China reject the
verdict of the international tribunal on
the South China Sea. At the time of
writing, the incoming US president
is considering withdrawal from the
recent Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (Iran nuclear deal) and the Paris
Climate Change agreement. The exit
of major stakeholders from economic
agreements such as the Trans-Pacific
Partnership and Trans-Atlantic Trade
15
Part 3
Part 2
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Environment: Accelerating
Action
As Figure 2 (inside front cover)
illustrates, a cluster of interconnected
environment-related risks including
extreme weather events, climate
change and water crises has
consistently featured among the topranked global risks for the past seven
editions of The Global Risks Report.
Environment-related risks again stand
out in this years global risk landscape
(see Figure 3 (inside rear cover), with
every risk in the category lying in
the higher-impact, higher-likelihood
16
Part 1
GtCO2e/year
55
45
35
2025
2005 baseline
Unconditional INDCs
2C scenario
2030
17
Part 3
Part 2
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Box 1.2: Climate Change and the 4IR - by Al Gore, Generation Investment Management
Every day we spew 110 million tons of heat-trapping global warming pollution into our atmosphere. The accumulated amount of all
that manmade global warming pollution is trapping as much extra heat energy as would be released by 400,000 Hiroshima-class
atomic bombs exploding every single day. All that extra heat energy is disrupting the hydrological cycle, evaporating water vapor
from the oceans and leading to stronger storms, more extreme floods, and deeper and longer droughts, declining crop yields,
water stresses, the spread of tropical diseases poleward, and refugee crises and political instability, among other problems. Our
efforts to solve the climate crisis are a race against time, but the technologies embodying the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), and
the implications of these changes for business and society, contain hope for the acceleration of the necessary solutions to the
climate crisis.
We are seeing a continuing sharp, exponential decline in the costs of renewable energy, energy efficiency, batteries and storage
and the distribution of technologies that allow for the spread of sustainable agriculture and forestry giving nations and
communities around the world an opportunity to embrace a sustainable future based on a low carbon, hyper-efficient economy. In
fact, in many parts of the world, renewable energy is already cheaper than that of fossil fuels. In some developing regions of the
world, renewable energy is leapfrogging fossil fuels altogether, much in the same way mobile phones leapfrogged land-line
phones.
Sixteen years ago, projections said that by 2010 the world would be able to install 30 gigawatts of wind capacity. In 2015, we
installed 14.5 times that amount. Solar energys price decrease is even steeper and more exciting. Fourteen years ago, projections
said that the solar energy market would grow 1 gigawatt per year by 2010 that goal was exceeded by 17 times over. In 2015, we
beat that mark by 58 times and 2016 was on pace to beat that mark 68 times over. In fact, the cost of solar energy has come down
10 percent per year for 30 years.
Similar developments are likely to occur across the board as new developments in electric vehicles, smart grids and micro grids,
advanced manufacturing and materials, and other areas continue to accelerate climate action. We are already seeing revolutions
unfolding in areas like car sharing, forest monitoring, and data-driven reductions in industrial energy usage.
But it is not just the technologies of the 4IR that are directly making a difference: it is also the transformative operating models
inherent within these technologies that contain the seeds for change. The Internet of Things has introduced a world of hyperconnectivity that allows us to approach decision-making in an entirely new manner. Our increased connectivity between one
another and to the material world enables us to transfer information and materials more efficiently to greater numbers of people.
All of this is making the tools we need to solve the greatest challenges we face more effective and more ubiquitous at a previously
unseen pace.
We are going to prevail in our collective effort to solve the climate crisis, and it will be in large part due to our increasing ability to
mitigate the burning of dirty fossil fuels through the opportunities presented to us by the 4IR.
18
Part 1
Endnotes
These problems did not begin with the financial crisis. For example, Russell Dalton
(Dalton, 2004) was writing about the erosion of political support in advanced
industrial democracies in 2004, and one prominent argument about the hollowing
out of Western democracy looks to the 1990s as a pivotal decade for declining
public engagement in politics (Mair, 2013).
1
Schuman 2016.
World Economic Forum Global Risks Reports, various years.
For evidence of global falling inequality see McCloskey 2016; Pinkovskiy and Sala-iMartin 2009; Roser 2016.
4
39
Lavars 2015.
40
41
Gonzales 2016.
42
Gonzales 2016.
Roser 2016.
44
UNEP 2016b.
Gabaix and Landier 2008; Lustig, Syverson, and Van Nieuwerburgh 2011.
45
Sherwin 1981.
46
IEA 2016a.
47
UNEP 2016a.
See Darvas and Wolff (2016) on the jobs polarization hypothesis, which suggests
that technology leads to increased demand for high-skilled and lowest-skilled labour,
leading to a hollowing out of the middle class.
10
Milanovic 2012.
11
See Eaton et al. 2011; Hoekman 2015; World Economic Forum 2016b.
49
NOAA 2016.
12
Sala-i-Martin 2006.
50
UNEP 2016a.
13
51
14
52
Kaye 2016.
15
Middeldorp 2015.
53
54
Berger 2016.
55
Nelsen 2015.
56
Nelsen 2016.
57
58
59
60
CRED 2016.
17
Kahn 2016.
19
20
See, for example, the performance of the National Front in France; Alternative for
Germany in Germany; Sinn Fein in Ireland; the Freedom Party in Austria; the Party for
Freedom in the Netherlands; Law and Justice in Poland; the Danish Peoples Party in
Denmark; Fidesz in Hungary.
21
22
23
24
For information on relocation plans for Alaska, see Malo 2016; for Fiji see Climate
Home 2014; for Kiribati see Chapman, 2012.
61
62
van der Heijden, Otto, and Maddocks 2015; World Bank 2016.
63
64
65
Reuters 2016.
66
Erdogan 2016.
Galeotti and Bowen 2014.
The Economist 2016; Oxford Dictionaries 2016.
25
26
27
28
29
30
Mair 2013, p. 2.
32
Acemoglu 2016.
33
34
35
Schwab 2015.
36
OECD 2012b.
37
IEA 2016b.
19
Part 3
Part 2
Part 1
References
Part 2
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Lustig, H., C. Syverson, and S. Van Nieuwerburgh. 2011. Technological change and
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21
Part 3
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Part 2
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externalmpc/extmpcpaper0042.pdf
Part 1
Part 2
Part 2:
Social and Political
Challenges
Part 3
22
Part 1
Alongside globalization,
technological change has
dramatically affected many
peoples sense of economic
security. Traditional manufacturing
hubs in advanced economies
have been hollowed out by a
The Global Risks Report 2017
23
Part 3
Part 2
Part 1
Part 2
combination of labour-saving
technology and outsourcing.10
Technology has historically been
a net creator of jobs, but new jobs
do not necessarily materialize
quickly or in the same locations
as jobs that have been displaced:
economist Diane Coyle has argued
that one of the drivers of current
political disaffection in postindustrial regions is that job losses
have eroded whole communities.11
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Part 1
Box 2.1.1: Social Media and the Distortion of Information - by Walter Quattrociocchi, Northeastern University
Part 2
Social media can liberate, inform, engage, mobilize, and encourage innovation and democracy. However, social media has also
changed the way we get informed and form our opinions, with troubling results. According to one recent estimate,1
approximately 63% of users acquire their news from social media. But news sourced in this way is subject to the same
dynamics as other forms of online content, such as selfies and cat photos. It is the most popular content that spreads,
regardless of its factual accuracy.
As a result of disintermediated access to information and algorithms used in content promotion, communication has become
increasingly personalized, both in the way messages are framed and how they are shared across social networks. Recent
studies show that, online, we seek information that supports existing viewpoints and predominantly engage with communities of
like-minded people, leading to the problem of confirmation bias.2
Part 3
Online discussion negatively influences users emotions and intensifies polarization,3 creating echo chambers closed, mostly
non-interacting communities with different narratives, where beliefs become amplified or reinforced. With users on social media
aiming to maximize the number of likes, information is frequently oversimplified. The combination of simplification and
segregation provides a fertile environment for the diffusion and persistence of unsubstantiated rumours.4
Misinformation has always represented a political, social and economic risk. Social medias power to misinform, manipulate and
distort public opinion has become severe. Experimental evidence shows that confirmatory information is accepted even if it
contains deliberately false claims, while dissenting information is mainly ignored or might even increase group polarization.5
This evidence suggests a real possibility that public opinion can be intentionally distorted by exploiting information overload and
confirmation bias, with significant political, social and economic consequences. Strategies for mitigation remain uncertain.6
Google has proposed trying to correct false claims by marking information as fact-checked; but confirmation bias might simply
result in the claim of fact-checking being discounted. The problem behind misinformation is polarization hence, we need to
create synergies among institutions, scholars and communicators to reframe and smooth contrast in the information system.
Notes
1
Newman, Levy, and Nielsen 2015.
2
Quattrociocchi, Scala, and Sunstein 2016; Del Vicario et al. 2016.
3
Zollo et al. 2015; Sunstein 2002.
4
Mocanu et al. 2015.
5
Quattrociocchi, Scala, and Sunstein 2016.
6
Ciampaglia et al. 2015.
Technological change is
diminishing the contribution
of labour to GDP growth, as
machines become more able to do
a wider range of work. One study
predicts that 47% of US jobs are at
risk of automation,24 affecting over
80% of low-income workers.25 New
technology has also historically
increased labour productivity and
created new and better jobs but
as machines become better at
cognitive as well as physical tasks,
there is significant uncertainty
about the future of job creation.
25
Part 1
2. Maintaining continuity in
government while accelerating
change
The economic policies of
historically mainstream political
parties from the left and the right
have converged in recent
decades.31 This has enabled
once-fringe movements to rise by
portraying the established parties
as part of the same technocratic
political class, focused on selfenrichment while the institutions
of government are allowed to
fail. Populist movements call
for bold, dramatic action; when
moderates point to public debt
and overstretched monetary
policy as constraining room for
manoeuvre, they can be portrayed
as patronizing.
Part 2
Part 3
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('''#
1999
(''!#
1995
(''*#
1993
(''(#
1991
50
!"#
(''%#
1997
60
$"#
453-53#
Output
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2016; U.S Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2016.
26
Part 1
38
Part 3
Endnotes
Part 2
Kaufmann 2016.
Conclusion
There is room for debate about
the extent to which the rise of antiestablishment sentiment in Western
democracies reflects a threat to the
democratic process itself. Nonetheless,
there are clear reasons to worry
about the health of democracy,
and challenges related to cultural
polarization and economic dislocation
have no straightforward answers. This
could be a pivotal moment in political
history, and it requires courageous new
thinking about how best to manage the
relationship between citizens and their
elected representatives.
27
Part 1
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28
Part 1
29
Part 3
Part 2
Part 1
Africa
Part 2
Americas
Asia
Europe
Middle East
14
4
5
10
3
10
Part 3
;-51.,"
Closed
Repressed
Obstructed
<.64.11.,"
=>124392.,"
?0445@.,"
=6.A"
Narrowed
Open
Rising nationalism
Changing scene of
development aid
Market
fundamentalism
30
Part 1
Figure 2.2.2: The Top Performers on the World Banks Doing Business Survey:
Mostly Free Countries
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
4
0
Top 25 performers
Free
Partly Free
Bottom 25 performers
Not Free
Sources: World Bank, Doing Business; Freedom House, Freedom in the World.
Note: The top-25 and bottom-25 rankings are based on the World Bank 2015 Distance to Frontier indicator.
The freedom categories are taken from the Freedom House 2015 Freedom in the World report.
31
Part 3
Part 2
corruption, as quantitative
and qualitative studies attest to
the contribution of civil society
organizations in reducing illicit
activities;22,23
polarization of views, due to
misinformation or asymmetry of
information across countries and
societal groups;24 and
socio-political and economic
instability as discontent around
governance systems that are not
participatory and accountable
manifests as protests.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Conclusions
Despite the global nature of closing
civil society space, there is still not
much awareness among businesses,
decision-makers and a good part of
societal actors about this worrisome
pattern and the potential risks it can
engender: increased social and
economic instability, augmented social
polarization, more fragile governance,
and major detriment to basic civil
and political rights that have been
gainfully acquired by many countries
in the past 50 years. More investment
should be put to further study this
phenomenon and quantify it in terms of
lost economic and social opportunities.
With technological innovation creating
new opportunities for social inclusion
and civic empowerment, time is
ripe for all actors to come together
and enable an open civic space by
collectively taking measures and
engaging technology to address this
risk effectively.
Chapter 2.2 was contributed by Silvia Magnoni, World
Economic Forum, and Kira Youdina, World Economic
Forum.
32
Endnotes
The Economist 2016; Kerry 2015; Sherwood 2015; Stone 2015.
The World Bank definition for civil society refers to the wide array of nongovernmental and not-for-profit organizations that have a presence in public life,
expressing the interests and values of their members or others, based on ethical,
cultural, political, scientific, religious or philanthropic considerations. Civil Society
Organizations (CSOs) therefore refer to a wide of array of organizations: community
groups, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), labor unions, indigenous groups,
charitable organizations, faith-based organizations, professional associations, and
foundations. See World Bank 2013.
3
United Nations General Assembly 2016.
4
United Nations General Assembly 2015.
5
CIVICUS 2016c, pp. 5, 8.
6
Assis 2015; CIVICUS 2016a; Roth 2016;Unmig 2016. Resolutions regarding
enabling civil society space have been adopted at the UN Human Rights Council,
and the Officer of the High Commissioner for Human Rights created a handbook on
enabling civil society space: http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/AboutUs/CivilSociety/
CS_space_UNHRSystem_Guide.pdf
7
CIVICUS 2016b; Sriskandarajah 2016. Indexes can also be found in USAIDs CSO
Sustainability Indexes for Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Europe and Eurasia, and Middle
East and North Africa.
8
The International Press Institute has recorded increased repression and hostilities
towards critical and investigative reporting in the past few years, with journalists
being detained and killed, or opposition newspapers suspended/shutdown; see
http://www.freemedia.at/
9
CIVICUS Monitor 2016.
10
ISHR 2015.
11
There are many examples of the vilification of or smear campaigns against civil
society organisation, painting them as working against the interest of citizens. See
Green 2016; Hungary Matters 2015; UN News Centre 2016.
12
Widespread protest movements, empowered by new technologies, have
threatened those in power, thus triggering clampdowns. See Green 2015; Minder
2016; Sherwood 2015.
13
The organisation Frontline Defenders currently has 220 active cases of
actions taken against human rights defenders, including violence. https://www.
frontlinedefenders.org/open-cases
14
Civil society actors do not deny the need for transparency, but regulations
have made it impossible for some organisations to function due to an overload of
reporting requirements. See ICNL 2016b. Restrictions on receipt of foreign funding
have also ensured that organisations have to scale down or stop their activities;
see The Economist 2014. The Financial Action Task Force requirements, an antiterrorism response, has also limited the money that civil society organisations can
receive: see the Global NPO Coalition of FATF at http://fatfplatform.org/civil-societyconcerns/
15
Examples include interrupting the internet before or during protests, blocking
certain websites, or mass surveillance impinge on digital rights. Numerous cases
exist around the world: see Article 19 2015; Mavhinga 2016; Ramdani 2011; RFE/RL
2016; Sutter 2012.
16
Boon 2015; ICNL 2016b; Sherwood 2015.
17
As an example, the Scholars at Risk Network, which helps place scholars in
universities around the world when they are under threat in their home countries,
reports an increase in attacks on scholars: see SARN 2016 at https://www.
scholarsatrisk.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/SAR-2016-Global-CongressReport.pdf
18
It has to be noted that available research on the incidence of NPO (non-profit
organisations) abuse for terrorist financing and money laundering is limited and of
low quality, and no study has been able to reliably quantify this risk of abuse.
19
Green 2015; Omidyar 2014; Treisman 2014.
20
OHCHR 2016.
21
Oxfam International 2016; SIPRI 2016.
22
Themudo 2013.
23
Florini and Simmons 2000; McCoy and Heckel 2001; Ralchev 2004.
24
Bequelin 2014. Reporting on political issues, corruption and economic trends
becomes difficult (see Otis 2013).
25
Researchers are still debating and clarifying the methodological approaches to
defining civil society and measuring its impact (see Enjolras 2015).
26
Salamon et al. 1999.
27
CAF 2016.
28
De Lombaerde and Garay 2006.
29
Wasow 2011.
30
IMF 2016.
31
In Venezuela, for instance, a repressive and populist regime has, over time,
imposed its controls on companies, seizing private businesses and farms and
restricting the economic influence of major corporate actors. See Forero 2016.
32
Wilshaw 2015.
1
2
Part 1
34
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Enjolras, B. 2015. Measuring the impact of the third sector: From concept
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34
Smedley, T. 2015. Risks abound as companies export their pride globally. Financial
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Unmig, B. 2016. Civil socity under pressure shrinking closing no space.
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Webb, T. 2014. Two reasons companies need campaigning NGOs, and how they
can support them when under attack. Sustainablity = Smart Business Blogpost, 11
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Wilshaw, R. 2015. What would loosen the roots of labour exploitation in supply
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Box 2.3.2: Advanced versus Emerging Economies: Differing Challenges and Opportunities
Advanced and emerging economies face different challenges and opportunities for developing social protections that support
economic growth and social stability in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Advanced economies have had the resources to create layered social safety nets, with costs shared across individuals,
employers and government, resulting in many more people than in the developing world enjoying some level of protection
today. For example, the US Social Security programme, funded by employers and workers, was providing benefits to 60 million
people at the end of 2015, while Medicare and Medicaid covered healthcare for 55 million. But such programmes were not
designed for the extreme demographic shifts, chronic healthcare challenges, and the effects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
that are reshaping societies. Advanced economies face the challenge of reforming them without incurring a crippling debt
burden.
Many emerging market economies arguably have an opportunity to avoid these pitfalls, potentially leapfrogging their wealthier
neighbours by formulating sustainable social protection systems that are responsive to the risks of the Fourth Industrial
Revolution. Brazil, for example, has implemented the largest cash transfer programme in the world, the Bolsa Familia, which
today reaches 55 million of its poorest citizens, costs 30% less per person than more traditional aid programmes, and has
helped lift 36 million people out of extreme poverty.1
Nonetheless, the varying demographic profiles of growth economies pose different challenges. Asia Pacific is the worlds
fastest ageing region, with a 71% increase in the number of people aged 65 years and above projected by 2030. Singapores
elderly population will rise from 11% to 20% in the next 15 years; in France, the same shift took 49 years. A rapidly contracting
workforce and reallocation of resources towards elderly healthcare weakens these economies fiscal position and erodes the
adequacy and sustainability of pension and social security systems.2
Conversely, India has significant potential to reap a demographic dividend, but its limited capacity to create employment poses
a serious challenge: between 1991 and 2013 the size of the working-age population increased by 300 million, yet the number of
employed only increased by 140 million.3 By 2017, a staggering 93% of Indians will hold jobs without social security benefits.4
Solutions are being sought, as the government launches three mega social security schemes accident coverage, life
insurance and pensions.
Sub-Saharan Africa is growing faster than any other region, with an average birth rate of five to seven children per mother and
little effective birth control.5 This scale of growth undermines efforts to reduce poverty or to create jobs, and youth
unemployment is high 50% in South Africa. The ability of nations in Sub-Saharan Africa to create sustainable safety nets will
require both political will and economic activity sufficient to create the necessary resources.
Notes
1
Tepperman 2016.
2
Marsh & McLennan Companies APRC 2016.
3
UNDP 2016.
4
Waghmare 2016.
5
UNICEF 2014.
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Figure 2.3.1: A Whole-of-Life Approach to Social Protection Needs in the Fourth Industrial Revolution Era
Part 2
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3. Implementing policies to
increase flexicurity
The changing needs of businesses
and individuals in the Fourth
Industrial Revolution require giving
employers access to a flexible
labour force while providing
individuals with the security of
a safety net and active help in
securing employment.
38
Part 1
Endnotes
Part 3
27
Part 2
References
Arntz, M., T. Gregory, and U. Zierahn. 2016. The risk of automation for jobs
in OECD countries: A comparative analysis. OECD Social, Employment and
Migration Working Papers No. 189. Paris: OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.
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Clayton, J. and H. Holland. 2015. Over one million sea arrivals reach Europe in
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Eurostat Statistics Explained. 2014. Disability statistics health. Data extracted
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Disability_statistics_-_health
FIAP (International Federation of Pension Fund Administrators). 2011. Advancing
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uploads/2016/01/libro_fiap_2011_eng.pdf
Flynn, M. 2014. Lessons from Japan: Helping the older unemployed back into
work. The Guardian, 17 July 2014. https://www.theguardian.com/careers/careersblog/retirement-ageing-workforce-japan-jobs
Frey, C. B. and M. A. Osborne. 2013. The future of employment: How susceptible
are jobs to computerisation? 17 September 2013. Oxford, UK: Oxford Martin
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Employment.pdf
39
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GMB. 2016. GMB fight employment case of the year against Uber. GMB, 20 July
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Guy Carpenter. 2015. A Clearer View of Emerging Risks: Interactive PDF Instructions.
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Loch, C., F. J. Sting, N. Bauer, and H. Mauermann. 2010. The globe: How BMW
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The Migration Observatory. 2016. The fiscal impact of immigration. Update.
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OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2015. Old-age
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Bolsa Famlia. Foreign Affairs (January/February 2016). https://www.foreignaffairs.
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UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2016. Asia-Pacific Development
Report Shaping the Future: How Changing Demographics Can Power Human
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UNICEF (United Nations Childrens Fund). 2014. Generation 2030 / Africa. UNICEF,
Division of Data, Research, and Policy. https://www.unicef.org/publications/files/
Generation_2030_Africa.pdf
United Kingdom, Gov.UK. 2016 State Pension: Delay (defer) your State Pension.
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Waghmare, A. 2016. 6 indicators of Indias looming demographic disaster.
IndiaSpend, 2 May 2016. http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/6-indicators-ofindias-looming-demographic-disaster-99797
World Economic Forum. 2016. The Human Capital Report 2016. Geneva: World
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Zhai, Z. 2015. Ageing in China: Trend, process and character. Renmin University of
China. http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Session1_Mr.ZhaiZhenwu_China.
pdf
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41
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Part 3:
Emerging
Technologies
Part 3
42
Part 1
Description
3D printing
Advances in additive manufacturing, using a widening range of materials and methods; innovations
include 3D bioprinting of organic tissues.
Creation of new materials and nanostructures for the development of beneficial material
properties, such as thermoelectric efficiency, shape retention and new functionality.
Development of machines that can substitute for humans, increasingly in tasks associated with
thinking, multitasking, and fine motor skills.
Biotechnologies
Innovations in genetic engineering, sequencing and therapeutics, as well as biologicalcomputational interfaces and synthetic biology.
Breakthroughs in battery and fuel cell efficiency; renewable energy through solar, wind, and tidal
technologies; energy distribution through smart grid systems, wireless energy transfer and more.
Distributed ledger technology based on cryptographic systems that manage, verify and publicly
record transaction data; the basis of "cryptocurrencies" such as bitcoin.
Geoengineering
Also known as the "Internet of Things". The use of networked sensors to remotely connect, track
and manage products, systems, and grids.
Neurotechnologies
Innovations such as smart drugs, neuroimaging, and bioelectronic interfaces that allow for reading,
communicating and influencing human brain activity.
New architectures for computing hardware, such as quantum computing, biological computing or
neural network processing, as well as innovative expansion of current computing technologies.
Space technologies
Developments allowing for greater access to and exploration of space, including microsatellites,
advanced telescopes, reusable rockets and integrated rocket-jet engines.
Source: The 12 emerging technologies listed here and included in the GRPS are drawn from World Economic
Forum Handbook on the Fourth Industrial Revolution (forthcoming, 2017).
The Global Risks Report 2017
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Governance Dilemmas
How to govern emerging technologies
is a complex question. Imposing overly
strict restrictions on the development
of a technology can delay or prevent
potential benefits. But so can continued
regulatory uncertainty: investors will be
reluctant to back the development of
technologies that they fear may later
be banned or shunned if the absence
of effective governance leads to
irresponsible use and a loss of public
confidence.
Ideally, governance regimes should
be stable, predictable and transparent
enough to build confidence among
investors, companies and scientists,
and should generate a sufficient
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Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016.
Note: Respondents were asked to select the three emerging technologies that they believe most need better governance. The figure presents the percentage of
respondents who selected each technology.
46
Part 1
Endnotes
Alford, Keenihan, and McGrail 2012.
Juma 2016.
3
The overall average response for benefits to emerge from emerging technologies
was 5.6, equating to a likelihood of above 55% and below 75%. This contrasts
sharply with the average of 3.8 for negative consequences, equating to an assessed
likelihood of between 25% and 45%.
4
It is noteworthy that no single technology was, on average, assessed to present
negative consequences at a higher likelihood than its benefits. The technology with
the lowest net benefits in this regard was Geoengineering, with the fourth highest
assessment of negative consequences overall and the lowest assessment of
benefits. At the other end of the scale, the technology with the greatest assessed net
benefit was Energy capture, storage and transmission.
5
Quid analysis performed by the World Economic Forum on key search terms
across major news sources, November 2016.
6
In the United States, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
issued its first federal framework for biotech regulation in 1986.
7
United Nations 1992, Convention on Biological Diversity, Article 8.
8
Wright 2000.
9
See, for example, ISO 10218-1 (2011) and ISO 10218-2 (2011).
10
Volkswagen 2016.
1
2
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11
Part 2
KPMG 2015.
References
Alford, K., S. Keenihan, and S. McGrail. 2012. The complex futures of emerging
technologies: challenges and opportunities for science foresight and governance in
Australia. Journal of Futures Studies 16 (4): 6786.
Juma, C. 2016. Innovation and Its Enemies: Why People Resist New Technologies.
New York: Oxford University Press.
Karembu, M., D. Otunge, and D. Wafula. 2010. Developing a Biosafety Law:
Lessons from the Kenyan Experience. Nairobi: ISAAA AfriCenter.
KPMG. 2015. Marketplace of change: Automobile insurance in the era of
autonomous vehicles. White Paper, October 2015. https://home.kpmg.com/
content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2016/05/marketplace-change.pdf
Nuffield Council on Bioethics. 2016. Genome Editing: An Ethical Review. London:
Nuffield Council on Bioethics.
Volkswagen. 2016. MOIA: The Volkswagen Groups new mobility services
company. Press release, 5 December 2016. https://www.volkswagen-mediaservices.com/documents/10541/4e91af8e-0b11-477c-a6fb-7ee089f1cc4d
Wright, G. 2000. Review of Helpman (1998). Journal of Economic Literature 38
(March 2000: 16162; cited in Brynjolfsson, E. and A. McAfee. 2014. The Second
Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies.
New York and London: W. W. Norton & Company.
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Growing Investment,
Benefits and Potential Risk
By providing new information and
improving decision-making through
data-driven strategies, AI could
potentially help to solve some of the
complex global challenges of the 21st
century, from climate change and
resource utilization to the impact of
population growth and healthcare
issues. Start-ups specializing in AI
applications received US$2.4 billion
in venture capital funding globally in
2015 and more than US$1.5 billion
in the first half of 2016.2 Government
programmes and existing technology
companies add further billions (Figure
3.2.1). Leading players are not just
hiring from universities, they are hiring
the universities: Amazon, Google
48
Risks to Decision-Making,
Security and Safety
In any complex and chaotic system,
including AI systems, potential
dangers include mismanagement,
design vulnerabilities, accidents and
unforeseen occurrences.11 These
pose serious challenges to ensuring
the security and safety of individuals,
governments and enterprises. It may
be tolerable for a bug to cause an AI
mobile phone application to freeze or
misunderstand a request, for example,
but when an AI weapons system
or autonomous navigation system
encounters a mistake in a line of code,
the results could be lethal.
Machine-learning algorithms can also
develop their own biases, depending
on the data they analyse. For example,
an experimental Twitter account
run by an AI application ended up
being taken down for making socially
unacceptable remarks;12 search engine
algorithms have also come under fire
for undesirable race-related results.13
Decision-making that is either fully
or partially dependent on AI systems
will need to consider management
protocols to avoid or remedy such
outcomes.
AI systems in the Cloud are of particular
concern because of issues of control
and governance. Some experts
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196
131
$2,177
$2,388
67
$282
$415
2011
2012
$757
2013
2015
Part 3
2014
Number of deals
Box 3.2.1: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare - by Jean-Marc Rickli, Geneva Centre for Security
Policy
One sector that saw the huge disruptive potential of AI from an early stage is the military. The weaponization of AI will
represent a paradigm shift in the way wars are fought, with profound consequences for international security and stability.
Serious investment in autonomous weapon systems (AWS) began a few years ago; in July 2016 the Pentagons Defense
Science Board published its first study on autonomy, but there is no consensus yet on how to regulate the development of
these weapons.
The international community started to debate the emerging technology of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) in
the framework of the United Nations Convention on Conventional Weapon (CCW) in 2014. Yet, so far, states have not
agreed on how to proceed. Those calling for a ban on AWS fear that human beings will be removed from the loop, leaving
decisions on the use lethal force to machines, with ramifications we do not yet understand.
There are lessons here from non-military applications of AI. Consider the example of AlphaGo, the AI Go-player created by
Googles DeepMind division, which in March last year beat the worlds second-best human player. Some of AlphaGos
moves puzzled observers, because they did not fit usual human patterns of play. DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis
explained the reason for this difference as follows: unlike humans, the AlphaGo program aims to maximize the probability
of winning rather than optimizing margins. If this binary logic in which the only thing that matters is winning while the
margin of victory is irrelevant were built into an autonomous weapons system, it would lead to the violation of the principle
of proportionality, because the algorithm would see no difference between victories that required it to kill one adversary or
1,000.
Autonomous weapons systems will also have an impact on strategic stability. Since 1945, the global strategic balance has
prioritized defensive systems a priority that has been conducive to stability because it has deterred attacks. However, the
strategy of choice for AWS will be based on swarming, in which an adversarys defence system is overwhelmed with a
concentrated barrage of coordinated simultaneous attacks. This risks upsetting the global equilibrium by neutralizing the
defence systems on which it is founded. This would lead to a very unstable international configuration, encouraging
escalation and arms races and the replacement of deterrence by pre-emption.
We may already have passed the tipping point for prohibiting the development of these weapons. An arms race in
autonomous weapons systems is very likely in the near future. The international community should tackle this issue with the
utmost urgency and seriousness because, once the first fully autonomous weapons are deployed, it will be too late to go
back.
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Part 3
Can AI Be Governed
Now or in the Future?
So far, AI development has occurred in
the absence of almost any regulatory
environment.18 As AI systems inhabit
more technologies in daily life, calls
for regulatory guidelines will increase.
But can AI systems be sufficiently
governed? Such governance
would require multiple layers that
include ethical standards, normative
expectations of AI applications,
implementation scenarios, and
assessments of responsibility and
accountability for actions taken by or
on behalf of an autonomous AI system.
50
Part 1
Conclusion
Both existing ASI systems and the
plausibility of AGI demand mature
consideration. Major firms such as
Microsoft, Google, IBM, Facebook and
Amazon have formed the Partnership
on Artificial Intelligence to Benefit
People and Society to focus on
ethical issues and helping the public
better understand AI.27 AI will become
ever more integrated into daily life as
businesses employ it in applications
to provide interactive digital interfaces
and services, increase efficiencies and
lower costs.28 Superintelligent systems
remain, for now, only a theoretical
threat, but artificial intelligence is here
to stay and it makes sense to see
whether it can help us to create a better
future. To ensure that AI stays within the
boundaries that we set for it, we must
continue to grapple with building trust
in systems that will transform our social,
political and business environments,
make decisions for us, and become an
indispensable faculty for interpreting
the world around us.
Part 3
Part 2
51
Part 1
Endnotes
Russell, Dewey, and Tegmark 2015.
CB Insights 2016.
3
Mizroch 2015.
4
Martin 2012.
5
Clark 2016.
6
Bostrom 2014.
7
Scherer 2016.
8
Frey and Osborne 2015.
9
Sherpany 2016.
10
Bostrom 2014; Armstrong 2014.
11
Wallach 2015.
12
Hunt 2016.
13
Chiel 2016.
14
Maderer 2016.
15
Talbot 2009.
16
Russell, Dewey, and Tegmark 2015, p. 111
17
Bloomberg 2016.
18
US regulatory policy is aimed at end products such as automated vehicles rather
than the underlying technical system or its development.
19
Scherer 2016, p. 359.
20
U.S. Department of Transportation 2016.
21
Cohen 2013.
22
Kelly 2016.
23
Bostrom 2014, Chapter 3.
24
Conversation with Aldo Faisal, Senior Lecturer in Neurotechnology, Imperial
College London, 29 September 2016.
25
Yirka 2016.
26
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2016.
27
Hern 2016.
28
Kime 2016.
1
2
Part 2
Part 3
References
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CA: Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
Bloomberg. 2016. Boston Marathon Security: Can A.I. Predict Crimes? Bloomberg
News, Video, 21 April 2016. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/d260fb95751b-43d5-ab8d-26ca87fa8b83
Bostrom, N. 2014. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford: Oxford
University Press.
CB Insights. 2016. Artificial intelligence explodes: New deal activity record for
AI startups. Blog, 20 June 2016. https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/artificialintelligence-funding-trends/
Chiel, E. 2016. Black teenagers vs. white teenagers: Why Googles algorithm
displays racist results. Fusion, 10 June 2016. http://fusion.net/story/312527/
google-image-search-algorithm-three-black-teenagers-vs-three-white-teenagers/
Clark, J. 2016. Google cuts its giant electricity bill with deepmind-powered
AI. Bloomberg Technology, 19 July 2016. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
articles/2016-07-19/google-cuts-its-giant-electricity-bill-with-deepmind-powered-ai
Cohen, J. 2013. Memory implants: A maverick neuroscientist believes he has
deciphered the code by which the brain forms long-term memories. MIT Technology
Review. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/513681/memory-implants/
Frey, C. B. and M. A. Osborne. 2015. Technology at work: The future of innovation
and employment. Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, February 2015. http://
www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/reports/Citi_GPS_Technology_Work.pdf
Hern, A. 2016. Partnership on AI formed by Google, Facebook, Amazon, IBM and
Microsoft. The Guardian Online, 28 September 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/
technology/2016/sep/28/google-facebook-amazon-ibm-microsoft-partnership-onai-tech-firms
Hunt, E. 2016. Tay, Microsofts AI chatbot, gets a crash course in racism
from Twitter. The Guardian, 24 March 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/
technology/2016/mar/24/tay-microsofts-ai-chatbot-gets-a-crash-course-in-racismfrom-twitter
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Kelly, A. 2016. Will Artificial Intelligence read your mind? Scientific research analyzes
brainwaves to predict words before you speak. iDigital Times, 9 January 2016.
http://www.idigitaltimes.com/will-artificial-intelligence-read-your-mind-scientificresearch-analyzes-brainwaves-502730
Kime, B. 3 Chatbots to deploy in your busines. VentureBeat, 1 October 2016.
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Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. 2016. Lawrence Livermore and IBM
collaborate to build new brain-inspired supercomputer, Press release, 29 March
2016. https://www.llnl.gov/news/lawrence-livermore-and-ibm-collaborate-build-newbrain-inspired-supercomputer
Maderer, J. 2016. Artificial Intelligence course creates AI teaching assistant.
Georgia Tech News Center, 9 May 2016. http://www.news.gatech.edu/2016/05/09/
artificial-intelligence-course-creates-ai-teaching-assistant
Martin, M. 2012. C-Path: Updating the art of pathology. Journal of the
National Cancer Institute 104 (16): 120204. http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/
content/104/16/1202.full
Mizroch, A. 2015. Artificial-intelligence experts are in high demand. Wall Street
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Russell, S., D. Dewey, and M. Tegmark. 2015. Research priorities for a robust and
beneficial artificial intelligence. AI Magazine Winter 2015: 10514.
Scherer, M. U. 2016. Regulating Artificial Intelligence systems: Risks, challenges,
competencies, and strategies. Harvard Journal of Law & Technology 29 (2):
35498.
Sherpany. 2016. Artificial Intelligence: Bringing machines into the boardroom, 21
April 2016. https://www.sherpany.com/en/blog/2016/04/21/artificial-intelligencebringing-machines-boardroom/
Talbot, D. 2009. Extracting meaning from millions of pages. MIT Technology
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Turing, A. M. 1951. Can digital machines think? Lecture broadcast on BBC Third
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U.S. Department of Transportation. 2016. Federal Automated Vehicles Policy
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transportation.gov/AV/federal-automated-vehicles-policy-september-2016
Wallach, W. 2015. A Dangerous Master. New York: Basic Books.
Yirka, B. 2016. Researchers create organic nanowire synaptic transistors that
emulate the working principles of biological synapses. TechXplore, 20 June 2016.
https://techxplore.com/news/2016-06-nanowire-synaptic-transistors-emulateprinciples.html
Part 1
Price (US$/W)
1990
10
2000
2010
1
0
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
53
Part 3
The Economic
Characteristics of
Infrastructure Networks
Part 2
The Revolution
Part 1
Gigabytes in a second
3D video, UHD screens
Work and play in the cloud
Smart home/building
Augmented reality
Industry automation
Voice
Smart city
Future IMT
54
Part 1
Part 3
The Risks
Chinese border
0 295 590
1,180
1,770
2,360
Kilometers
5
6
7
8
Part 2
55
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Governance of
Infrastructure Networks in
the 4IR
Like infrastructure networks
themselves, arrangements for their
governance have evolved incrementally
and mostly siloed by sector not least
because ownership arrangements can
be so different, ranging from highly
competitive privatized markets (e.g.
in mobile phone provision) through
regulated monopolies, public-private
partnerships, state-owned enterprises
and direct public provision.1
Governments are increasingly
recognizing that this fragmented
approach is becoming unfit for purpose
56
Part 1
Endnotes
1
OECD 2015.
Part 2
References
Hu, X, Hall, J.W., Shi, P. and Lim, W-H. 2016. The spatial exposure of the Chinese
infrastructure system to flooding and drought hazards. Natural Hazards 80 (2):
1083118. doi:10.1007/s11069-015-2012-3
ITU (International Telecommunication Union). 2015. IMT vision: Framework
and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2020 and beyond.
Recommendation ITU-R M.2083. http://www.itu.int/dms_pubrec/itu-r/rec/m/R-RECM.2083-0-201509-I!!PDF-E.pdf
57
Part 3
Conclusion
58
59
Appendices
60
Environmental Risks
Economic Risks
Global Risk
Description
Unmanageable inflation
61
Technological Risks
Societal Risks
Geopolitical Risks
Global Risk
62
Description
Food crises
Water crises
Large-scale cyberattacks
Trends
A trend is defined as a long-term pattern that is currently evolving and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/
or altering the relationship between them.
Trend
Description
Ageing population
Changing landscape of
international governance
Changing landscape of global or regional institutions (e.g. UN, IMF, NATO, etc.),
agreements or networks
Changing climate
Change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, that alters
the composition of the global atmosphere, in addition to natural climate variability
Degrading environment
Deterioration in the quality of air, soil and water from ambient concentrations of
pollutants and other activities and processes
Increasing national
sentiment
Increasing polarization of
societies
Rise of cyber dependency due to increasing digital interconnection of people, things and
organizations
Rising geographic
mobility
Increasing mobility of people and things due to quicker and better-performing means of
transport and lowered regulatory barriers
Increasing socioeconomic gap between rich and poor in major countries or regions
Shifting power
Shifting power from state to non-state actors and individuals, from global to regional
levels, and from developed to emerging market and developing economies
Rising urbanization
Rising number of people living in urban areas resulting in physical growth of cities
Emerging Technologies
Emerging Technology
Description
3D printing
Innovations in printing using various types of materials to move beyond prototyping and
towards increasingly distributed manufacturing and medical applications that range
from a greater use of technologies such as contour crafting in construction to the
opportunity to develop printed biological materials, such as organ tissues, bone and
muscle
63
Emerging Technologies
64
Emerging Technology
Description
Biotechnologies
Innovations in genome editing, gene therapies, and other forms of genetic manipulation
and synthetic biology resulting in additions to the registry of sequenced species of
animals as well as human DNA, the creation of previously non-existent organisms,
and modifications to microbes and organisms for medical, agricultural and industrial
applications, including integrating them with electronic and computing advancements
Blockchain and
distributed ledger
Geoengineering
Proliferation and
ubiquitous presence of
linked sensors
Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors, also known as the Internet of
Things, combined with sophisticated large-scale data analytics that will connect, track
and manage physical products, logistics systems, energy grids and more by sending
and receiving data over widespread digital infrastructures
Neurotechnologies
Creation of new methods for insight into, and control of, the functionality and
processing dimensions of the human brain, allowing for the ability to read, influence and
communicate brain activity through various secondary technological dimensions such
as smart drugs, neuroimaging, bioelectronic interfaces, machine-brain interfaces and
brainwave decoding and manipulation
New computing
technologies
Space technologies
Technologies that can be used in space that will increase the ability of both public
and private entities to access, explore, and create new forms of value such as
microsatellites, reusable rockets, integrated rocket-jet engines, optical and imaging
technologies, sensor developments, resource exploitation, laser and communications
technologies, space exploration and habitat developments, and techno-scientific
breakthroughs that are transferable to the marketplace
Analysis
The Global Risks Landscape 2017
(Figure 3)
Respondents were asked to assess the
likelihood and global impact of each of
the 30 risks. For each risk, they were
asked, What is the likelihood of [the
risk] occurring globally within the next
10 years? and What is the negative
impact for several countries or industries
within the next 10 years? For the first
question, the possible answers ranged
from 1 (extremely unlikely with an
associated probability of occurrence
lower than 5%) to 7 (extremely likely
with an associated probability of
occurrence greater than 95%). For the
question on impact, respondents could
select one of five choices: minimal,
minor, moderate, severe, or
catastrophic. These five alternatives
were turned into a 15 scale (1 =
minimal, 5 = catastrophic). It is worth
noting that, as a consequence of the
scale modification, the impact results
cannot be compared with those of
previous years.
65
Expertise
Number of participants
745
Geopolitics
Academia
9.13%
9.40%
Society
18.66%
Economics
12.21%
Environment
7.92%
International organizations
Technology
15.97%
Other
31.68%
55.97%
4.83%
15.97%
Female
Male
10.60% 1.23%
NGO
46.98%
36.24%
Gender
Government
Business
Not informed
Not informed
12.08%
12.35%
Eurasia
Europe
Region
Age distribution
Not informed
2.28%
30.60%
12.48%
North America
East Asia
and the Pacific
14.09%
16.11%
Middle East
and North Africa
5.23%
17.85%
22.95%
<30
3039
20.94%
4049
14.63%
19.1%
8.86%
5059
6069
2.42%
>70
12.35%
Not informed
Latin America
and the Caribbean
10.07%
Oceania
Sub-Saharan Africa
1.2%
South Asia
4.16%
4.97%
n=1
N2i
1
impacti = impacti,n
Ni N2i
n=1
1
impacti = impacti,n
Ni
where N is the number
of respondents
n=1
pairmax = max (
ij
n=1
N
The Global Risks Report 2017
pairmax = max (
ij
n=1
pairij,n )
pairij,n )
likelihood
N
i
i
i,n
i n=1
differences more N
apparent
across the
n=1
weakest connections. Out of the 406
possible pairs of risks, 167 or 41% were
not cited. Similarly, out of the possible
N22i
377 trend-risk combinations,
33 or 9%
1 Ni
1 impact
impactFormally,
were not impact
cited.
the
intensity
of
i== N
i,n
impact
i N i
i n=1
the interconnection
betweeni,nrisks i and j
n=1
(or between trend i and risk j), denoted
interconnectionij, corresponds to:
NN
pairij,n
n=1pair
interconnectionij =n=1
interconnectionij = pairmaxij,n
pairmax
with
N
n=1
1N
% concern =1 c
% concern =i Nc i,n
Here again, respondents were given the governancei (the score) measures the
percentage of respondents selecting
option of choosing No Opinion if they
Ni
the emerging technology
i.
felt unable to provide an informed
1
benefitsi,n
benefitsi =
answer. Respondents could also leave
Ni
n=1to then answer a
the question completely blank. A simple The respondents had
question about which emerging
average of responses to the benefits,
technologies exacerbate
each of the five
negative consequences, and level of
Ni
1 risks. The question
categories of global
confidence questions was calculated. neg.consequences
=
neg.consequencesi,n
reads: For eachi question,
please select
Ni
Formally, for any given emerging
n=1
the three emerging technologies that
technology i, its benefits and negative
you believe will most significantly
consequences, denoted respectively
exacerbate global risks within the stated
benefitsi and neg.consequencesi, are:
N
risk category. By exacerbate
we mean
1
=
governance
governance
Ni
increase
the
likelihood
and/or
impact
i N
i,n of
Ni
11
n=1risk category, the
those
risks.
For
each
benefits
benefits
benefits
benefitsi =
i=N
i,n i,n
Nii n=1
results are computed as:
n=1
exacerbatei, a =
1
N
exacerbatei,a,n
n=1
67
Acknowledgements
68
69
Boxes
Box 1.2: Climate Change and the 4IR
by Al Gore, Generation Investment
Management
Box 2.1.1: Social Media and the
Distortion of Information by Walter
Quattrociocchi, Northeastern
University
Box 3.2.1: Artificial Intelligence and the
Future of Warfare by Jean-Marc Rickli,
Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Box 3.2.2: Aligning the Values of
Humans and AI Machines by Stuart
Russell, University of California,
Berkeley
The Global Risks Team would like
to extend their gratitude to the
Global Risks Perception Survey
2016 review group
Chase Harrison, Department of
Government, Harvard University
Olivier Oullier, Word Economic Forum
Caroline Roberts, University of
Lausanne
Piet Sellke, University of Stuttgart and
Insights for Impact
Richard Smith-Bingham, Marsh &
McLennan Companies
The project team is grateful to the
respondents to the Global Risks
Perception Survey 2016, without
whom the production of this Report
would not have been feasible. The
respondents include the Forums
multistakeholder communities and
members of the Institute of Risk
Management Network.
A special thank you also goes to
the following for their contributions
and support of The Global Risks
Report:
At the World Economic Forum
Founder and Executive Chairman
Klaus Schwab
Executive Committee
David Aikman, Marco Albani, Pedro
Rodrigues de Almeida, Marisol
Argueta, Emma Benameur, Arnaud
Bernaert, Matthew Blake, Jennifer
Blanke, Roberto Bocca, Giancarlo
Bruno, Sebastian Buckup, Denise
Burnet, Nicholas Davis, Jean-Loup
Denereaz, Sean Doherty, Lisa Dreier,
Michael Drexler, Margareta Drzeniek
Hanouz, Silvio Dulinsky, Miroslav
70