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Greenhaven Road Capital Q1 2017
Greenhaven Road Capital Q1 2017
Nike and Berkshire Hathaway have been brilliant investments over the last thirty plus years, and both have
seen short-term declines of 50% or more three separate times on the path to a many-thousand-fold return.
Fortunately, Greenhaven Road did not have a dramatic decline this quarter, but short-term success does
not make us immune to the inevitable gyrations even wonderful investments experience over their life.
Three months, and even a year is too short a timeframe to judge progress, so we try to abstain from
excessive self-flagellation for a losing quarter and excessive victory laps for positive quarters.
Fortunately, for three-year, five-year, and life of the fund timeframes we remain ahead of all relevant
benchmarks net of fees and expenses. This quarter, the partnership had gross returns of approximately
19%. Net returns vary depending on investor class and start date but were approximately 15%. This
performance compared favorably to the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 which returned 6% and 2.5%
respectively over 1st quarter of the year. Our performance was aided by the announced acquisition of
Fortress Investment Group, our second largest holding, by Softbank at a 61% premium to where shares
started 2017. Performance was also aided by the announced acquisition of Halogen Software by Saba
Software at a 43% premium to where shares started 2017. We will continue to have down months,
quarters, and years but are thankful when value is crystalized in two large investments in a single quarter.
TOP 5 POSITIONS
Fiat Chrysler (FCA) Our thesis on FCA remains the same: if the turnaround continues to be successful,
Fiat will earn in excess of $5 next year and have a net cash position. The company will benefit from
margin expansion as their product mix shifts away from commodity sedans and increasingly towards
luxury cars (Maserati and Alfa Romeo) and SUVs (Jeep). There are several ways to realize value,
including selling off the parts business or spinning off the luxury brands as they have already done with
Ferrari. Ultimately, strong businesses with strong brands and reasonable balance sheets do not trade for
2X earnings for long. Either the company will fall far short of their 2018 plan and todays prices will
seem reasonable, or they will continue to execute and todays prices will be deemed quite attractive.
Fortress Investment Group (FIG) Fortress agreed to be bought out by Softbank for $8.08 per share.
We continued to add to this long-term holding throughout 2016 as the share price bounced around in the
$4s. With 45% of shares held by insiders who are supporting the Softbank acquisition, it is highly unlikely
the deal breaks. I believe the shares are worth materially more than $8.08, but am pleased with the
outcome. The fund continued to hold shares through quarter-end to reach long-term gains tax treatment.
Howard Hughes (HHC) We recently been opportunistically adding shares to our 6-year position in
Howard Hughes, a real estate company focused on master-planned communities, operating assets, and
Upon taking the job in late 2010, Howard Hughes CEO spent his own money not options granted
through compensation to purchase $15M worth of warrants that would allow him to acquire 2.3M shares
at $42. Upon the warrants expiration this year, the CEO will either have to write another check for $96M
(2.3M * $42) or pursue a cashless exercise whereby shares will be sold to cover the exercise price. In
a cashless exercise, a higher share price is better as he will retain more shares. In the companys proxy
statement following quarter-end, management asked for shareholder approval to sell another $50M of
additional warrants to the CEO.
In addition to the CEO having financial motivation for higher share prices this year, HHCs largest
shareholder is activist Bill Ackmans Pershing Square, which has had a couple of bad years. One would
assume they are eager for some winners. Combined with the CEOs unique warrant situation, is it
surprising the company has scheduled its first analyst day for May 17th? Management has also just started
holding quarterly calls. It appears a concerted investor relations effort has begun.
Howard Hughes is currently structured as a C corporation and benefits from a tax shield related to legacy
losses. As this shield is depleted and REITs continue to receive generous valuations from yield-starved
investors, I would not be surprised to see a favorable corporate action such as spin-offs of some income-
producing properties such as hotels, malls, and retail. The combination of quality assets, quality team, a
discounted valuation, and the CEO warrant incentives underpin our conviction and led to incremental
purchases during the quarter.
Videocon d2h (VDTH) Videocon shares appreciated almost 40% over the quarter, turning our
investment profitable after a period of unrealized losses a helpful reminder that returns can be very
lumpy. The Indian direct to home TV companys merger with DishTV India remains on track to be
completed this year, yet the shares continue to sell at a double digit discount to the value of DishTV India
shares we will ultimately receive, which themselves are quite reasonably valued. The rationale for the
deal continues to make sense, there will be real operating leverage in the combined business and reduced
risk of a price war. We have the tailwinds of rising prices, growing market, and expanding margins.
ETSY (ETSY) As a new holding, Etsy is discussed in more detail later in this letter.
Over the course of the quarter, we covered our short positions in both Tesla and Lands End. We were
able to side step much of the Tesla carnage, but I undeniably underestimated investors ability to ignore
the poor unit economics, need for additional capital, and unrealistic pricing of the upcoming Model 3.
Our short interest in Lands End rested heavily on the companys incredibly poor choice for its new CEO.
For those who do not remember, she had a high fashion background (her initiatives included establishing
a fashion week presence for the otherwise casual brand) and commuted to the companys Wisconsin
headquarters from New York. That CEO has been replaced since, and borrow rates made holding the
position too expensive to maintain. As individual shorts are 1-2% positions, the impact on performance
was less than 1%. We maintain two index shorts and are short a richly-valued, no growth consumer staples
company that yield-hungry investors are currently treating as a bond replacement. If and when rates rise,
that company could be viewed as an overvalued, no growth company with products that are increasingly
out of favor. Per usual, we have a very long bias.
At the core of our partnership is a belief that size is the enemy of returns. Opportunities lie in the cracks
of the markets that the computers cannot understand and larger funds cannot bother with. Yes, we will
adapt and take what the market gives us, and at times we will invest in the largest companies when we see
opportunity. But to grow too large and be forced to give up the off the beaten path opportunities would
be the equivalent of tying our hands behind our back. While a single year is too short to measure returns
for a fund, it is notable that last year, the ten largest hedge funds all had sub-par returns. These funds did
not trail the market because the portfolio managers got dumber or had fewer resources these are brilliant
investors; that is how they got to be so large in the first place. However, large funds are slow-moving
aircraft carriers and suffer from a significantly diminished opportunity set. The largest funds are playing
a lucrative game of collecting management fees, but actually consistently beating the market is very
difficult. Even the Warren Buffett and Berkshire have seen book value grow at a slower pace than the
S&P 500 for four of the last five years. Yes, there are some accounting reasons, but Berkshires operating
businesses generate an additional $70 million per day, each and every day of the week. That money needs
to be invested. If Warren and his team sit on their hands for a month, over two billion dollars will pile up
in the corner. Can you imagine coming up with $70M worth of really good investment ideas each and
every day? I have the luxury of being able to wait for the ripest opportunities. I can also invest profitably
in a $200M market cap company, whereas Berkshire can only buy the whole company and a $5B fund
can only look wistfully at owning 10% of outstanding shares, which would amount to less than a percent
position in their portfolio.
Given our concentrated investing style, a typical starter investment is equal to about 5% of the portfolio.
As confidence grows and the risk/reward equation skews in our favor, we may invest to 10-12% in a single
company. Historically, very little of our returns and attention has been paid to sub-$50m market cap
companies, so I am not concerned about preserving our ability to invest in that space. I would, however,
like to preserve the ability to invest in $200M companies with no analyst coverage. There is not a hard
and fast rule that says at X size you preserve Y opportunity, but I can say for sure that at a fund size of
$1B for a concentrated investor, a $200M market cap company is not investable. Even at a fund size of
$300M, investing 5% of the fund in a $200M company is a challenge. While we flexibly invest across all
market capitalizations, the portion of our concentrated strategy that includes micro caps is capacity
constrained.
Honestly, I dont know where the line is how big is too big for the fund? As we have grown, I have
started to use external block traders that have allowed us to acquire more shares at better prices, faster
than would ever be possible just entering buy orders into Interactive Brokers. Are there other levers to
pull? Time will tell. I certainly dont want to take a lot of additional capital and find out the hard way
that we have gone flying past the optimal size. We should also continue to grow through compounding.
There is a direct line of sight to $40M, as the fund is a bit under $35M with another $5M to come from
the Royce Family / Stride Capital Group. Remember, my family group is the largest investor in the fund.
Our existing LP base, many for whom Greenhaven Road is a small/starter investment, collectively has
well over a billion dollars of investable assets. We also continue to receive meaningful interest from
hundreds of high net worth individuals and institutional clients. Raising how and when we may close the
fund is no longer the rantings of a dreamer. We are not in the basement anymore.
As previously discussed, we believe size is the enemy of returns. Perpetually raising money is not good
for my familys existing investment in the fund, or yours. The plan going forward is to soft close at
$80M or a bit more than double our current size. When we reach that point, we will take a long pause to
evaluate if we can/should accept any new/additional investors.
NEW INVESTMENT CLASS FOR NEW LIMITED PARTNERS & EXISTING LPs ADDING
NEW CAPITAL AFTER 2017
Our original investment terms were modeled on the Buffett partnership: a 25% incentive fee over a 6%
hurdle with a 50 basis point cap in administration/accounting expenses. This is an extremely investor-
friendly structure, and if it was good enough for Buffett, it was good enough for me. In reality, Buffett
closed his partnership as it was not the long-term model he wanted. My aspiration is to remain a boutique,
to grow your family capital alongside mine for decades. I want Greenhaven Road to be the vehicle to do
this. With no management fee and incentive fees only crystalized on an annual basis, a down year means
at least twenty-four months with no fees to run the business. In the six years the fund has been running,
a dollar invested in Greenhaven Road on day one has generated an excess return of +45.2% over the S&P
500, +66.8% over the Russell 2000 and +135.7% over the HFRI Equity Hedge (Total). Yet, in three of
the six years, the fund received no income (and, by extension, nor did I) because our returns were below
our hurdle rate for that year. Long stretches with no revenue or income does not create an environment
for optimal decision-making.
I also want to have access to the resources we need to be in a position to compound capital at high rates.
Having no management fee places the onus of funding resources entirely on me. I am capping the size of
the fund to everyones benefit, and would like to align everyones interest around a reasonable structure
to support the business while focusing my incentive around outperformance. To this end, we are adjusting
our Long-Term Class to add a .75% annual management fee for new investors starting June 1st. There
will be no change to the terms of existing capital, and current investors can add funds under their no
management fee terms through the end of 2017.
Going forward, there will still be a high-water mark and hurdle rate of 6% over which a 25% incentive
fee will be charged. We will also maintain the 50 basis point cap in administration/accounting expenses.
Because of the hurdle rate and a high-water mark, the fees paid by investors in flat or down years will be
below those of a mutual fund. Since we are capping the size of the fund, this is not a way to enrich myself
at the expense of investors, and instead an effort to begin reasonably supporting Greenhavens business
and have a foundation that can last for decades.
I believe that introducing more management fee paying assets will make the partnership healthier even if
it grows more slowly, and I think the new structure remains very investor-friendly and highly aligned.
Again, nothing is changing with your current investments and you can add more capital under the current
We will be closing our current liquid class to new investors and offering a new one whose terms will be
finalized shortly. In exchange for the liquidity, we are going to raise the minimum for this new Liquid
Class, which will also be capped in total size. The Long-Term Class will now be available to investors
making commitments of $200K or higher. I value having a broad base of like-minded investors. A long-
term orientation, an understanding that markets go up and down, and a recognition that volatility is
ultimately our friend is far more important than the size of the check.
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) is a mission-driven e-commerce company that builds markets, services and economic
opportunity for creative entrepreneurs. Serving as an alternative to Amazon and eBay, Etsy features
unique, handmade items often sold directly by the designers. Think of an online crafts fair. Instead of
competing on price or speed of delivery, Etsy attracts shoppers because purchases on the site support the
little guy, which has emotional value to many Etsy consumers and there is a vast selection of one of a
kind items that are not available elsewhere.
Etsy has a high value proposition from a vendors perspective. Over 28 million individual consumers
made purchases via Etsy in 2016. Accessing this swath of 28 million purchasers costs vendors a mere 20
cent listing fee per each item to be included on the site. This seems more than fair. Etsy also has built a
number of business integration tools to help generate shipping labels, place preferred listings, build
websites, purchase google AdWords, and export sales and expense data into accounting software. The
goal is to make life on the Etsy platform easier for the creative entrepreneur. Last year there were 1.7
million active sellers on Etsy.
There are clear network effects to the business. Sellers come because there are buyers on the site and
buyers come because of the quality and quantity of items available. Etsy itself is a platform: it holds no
inventory and instead makes money on transaction fees. Etsy has a long runway as it expands domestically
and internationally. A unique and differentiated platform with the opportunity to sell add-on products to
vendors and to grow demand internationally was a sexy enough story to attract a $16/share price for its
April 2015 IPO. Shares traded as high as $30 in the first few months of trading. Well, that was over a
year and a half ago where are we now? ETSY shares are trading in the mid-$10s and the companys
market cap is just over $1B with almost $300M in cash. This year the company will launch a studio
business where it will use existing technology to sell craft supplies to Etsy vendors. The company will
again hold no inventory, and start with 8M products on the platform. Etsy is also investing to ease
transaction friction with improved checkout mechanisms, and, importantly, is improving search and
What is not to like? There is far lower insider ownership than our typical investments. The primary
"insider" owners are the top tier VCs Union Square Ventures and Accel Partners. At the time of our
investment, the CEO had stock and options for a few million shares, which is nice, but I would prefer a
true owner-operator. The CFO is also at the end of a six-month departure process. Amazon has launched
a competitive offering, Handmade, which has not yet gained traction.
Last night, the company reported earnings, and made meaningful accommodations to a recent activist
investor Black-and-White Capital. Changes included naming a new CEO with experience at Ebay, layoffs
to address swelling SG&A expenses, naming Fred Wilson as Board Chair, and changing the CTO to
address technical issues. The net result, is the company will likely be in the penalty box for the short
term as guidance has been suspended and the new CEO and CFO find their way. I think all of these
changes are ultimately very beneficial. We cannot have everything, but in the case of Etsy, the asset light
business model, unique products, and a robust community of creative entrepreneurs has value. Etsy is the
fourth most visited general merchandise shopping website and the 50th most visited site in the U.S. For
less than $1B (ex cash) we get 28 million buyers and almost two million sellers. The company sells for
less than 2X EV/Sales while comps sell 3X+. Etsy would be a bite sized acquisition for eBay (the new
CEOs former employer) which is starved for growth and in this case it easier to buy than build. Etsy is
an interesting setup for long-term returns as we benefit from margin expansion and multiple expansion if
we are not acquired in the medium term.
It should be noted that one of our LPs, my mother, has a shop on Etsy SeaTreasuresByMiller (one word)
where she sells jewelry made from seashells she has collected. Etsy is easy enough to use and
inexpensive enough that she was able to launch her own hobby shop with minimal cost. (Her largest
expense was paying a granddaughter to model some earrings.) I have spent a fair amount of time on her
site understanding all of the back-end tools available to merchants. Great value is provided to the budding
creative entrepreneur by the platform. For those of us that are shopping challenged, Mothers Day is
coming up check out Etsy and SeaTreasuresByMiller.
When operating a business, teams matter, approach matters, and incentives matter. Using a non-finance
example, when you go to an art fair at your local school, you can see exhibits where an entire class has
painted the same still object after receiving instruction from the same teacher and having access to the
same supplies, yet the range of outcomes is a wide bell curve. As much as my parents loved me, there is
no way they looked at my scraggly depiction of an apple on a table and thought it was as good as that of
There are times in investing when a change in management and ownership is the catalyst: when the A
Team arrives, it is go time. To understand why the A Team may have arrived at Redknee Solutions, lets
go back to the late 1990s with five Stanford undergrads trying to launch a software company from their
dorm room. (It is a long, sordid story worth listening to: http://ecorner.stanford.edu/podcasts/1568/The-
Passion-and-Perseverance-Behind-a-Start-up). The short version is that they were trying to write software
to help Fortune 500 companies profitably price and sell complex products such as airplanes. Some of the
largest companies in the 1990s were trying to build similar software. HP spent millions, Silicon Graphics
scoured the earth as it was in desperate need. Ultimately this group of Stanford students launched Trilogy
Software, initially selling their software to HP, Bank of America, and Silicon Graphics before going on to
have over 10,000 customers across 45 countries. Triology remained private and, according to a Harvard
Business School case study, co-founder and initial CEO Joe Liemandt retained over 50% ownership of
the company.
Trilogy was an early adopter of using offshore software engineering talent, and even spun off two
businesses to help other companies do the same. They also pioneered a dynamic pricing model based off
of savings or benefits provided to customers instead of flat rate pricing. Trilogy was so successful that
Jack Welsh of GE called them out in an annual letter to acknowledge the savings their technology provided
to GE Medical. Trilogy CEO Joe Liemandt recognized that these business strategies utilizing cheaper
offshore talent, passing through aggressive savings to the customer, and persistent growth were scalable
and could be monetized outside of Trilogy Software, so he set up a family office, ESW Capital, which has
gone on to purchase over 40 software companies. Trilogy/ESW also spun off two companies: DevFactory,
which provides high quality, lower cost outsourced software development, and Crossover, a provider of
offshore recruiting and staffing for technology companies. So we have an A Team with vast experience
buying and improving software businesses, and a proven process of using its own subsidiaries for less
costly software development and effective multi location (offshore) staffing.
In 2014, ESW Capital made its first investment in a public company, Upland Software. Since ESW has
invested, Upland has utilized DevFactory to significantly reduce costs, and has placed a significant
emphasis on profitability over growth. ESW is up approximately 100% on their Upland Software
investment in just over two years.
Redknees previous management team tried to grow through acquisition, buying a division of Nokia
Siemens in 2013 and Orga Systems in 2015. The expected cost savings and synergies were never realized,
and Redknee Solutions was in violation of debt covenants in 2016. Following a fundraising process,
management reached an agreement with Constellation Software, one of the most effective acquirers of
software companies. At the end of 2016, ESW effectively outbid Constellation and invested another $83M
USD into the company in the form of a preferred security that pays 10% interest, can be repaid at the
companys discretion, and comes with warrants allowing ESW to purchase 46.2M shares at $1.68 CAD.
Since first becoming involved, the A team has invested $100M into Redknee, taken six of seven board
seats, fired the old CEO, installed an interim CEO, and installed interim sales personnel from Trilogy.
The ESW Capital playbook of reducing costs, consolidating SG&A activities, and emphasizing
profitability over growth appear to be exactly what Redknee needs. As a point of reference, in 2016
the last full year of the old management Redknee spent in excess of 25% of revenue on R&D while their
competitor Amdocs spent 7%. Likewise, Redknee spent 35% on SG&A last year while Amdocs spent
less than 13%. Granted, Amdocs has greater scale the Redknee and a similar comparison with their other
public investment, Upland Software, is less dramatic. Still, the combined difference between Redknee
and Amdocs on R&D and SG&A spend as a percentage of revenue is over 40% there is fat to be cut
here and likely pricing optimization on the existing Redknee Solutions software platform.
Like many of our investments, we are operating with imperfect information. ESW has a track record of
success and is largely aligned in the long term. ESW/Redknee have stated that the company will require
an additional $60M to restructure and build out the product offerings. This will most likely be done as a
rights offering, where each existing shareholder is offered the option of buying additional shares. Given
that ESW is the controlling shareholder, they would typically backstop the rights offering, buying any
shares that other investors pass up, which effectively increases their ownership. If there is in fact such a
backstopped rights offering coming, ESW has every incentive to keep the share price down: the lower the
share price, the more shares ESW will acquire, and the lower the strike price on their warrants, which have
anti dilution provisions.
I would expect ESW to act completely ethically, but would be surprised if any good news comes out of
Redknee before the rights offering. At the end of March, ESWs installed CEO hosted a very somber
investor call. Management stipulated that in the short term, fixing Redknee would require continued R&D
investment of $100M over three years as well as significant hiring and retraining to focus on customer
success. ESW stated the company was in far worse shape than they had believed when they made the
investment. This is likely true, but remember, ESW and management are in the process of laying off staff
There are two competing narratives right now. The literalists hear management say, things are bad and
think, if even management says things are bad, that means things are really bad! Time to sell. The
optimist thinks that managements short-term incentives are to magnify the challenges and minimize the
assets, strengths, or opportunities. However, this phase will likely end soon as the restructurings and
rights offerings are complete. As incentives change, tune will likely change.
REDK.TO Shares currently trade at $1 (CAD) with 108M shares outstanding. Given that revenue and
preferreds are in USD, it is easiest to convert to USD market capitalization of $80M (all future numbers
in USD) with $80M in preferred shares effectively debt. The company had $28M in cash as of December
31st plus $23.2M in extra cash, after the preferred placement/debt repayment, that it indicated it would use
for restructuring. To be conservative, assume all of the cash is used for restructuring, we have an enterprise
value of $160M for a software company that did $171M in revenue last year effectively 1X trailing
revenue. ESW has indicated that $120M is a more appropriate revenue number going forward, so we are
at 1.5X forward revenue. However, there are outstanding warrants with a strike price more than 50%
higher than todays price and a rights offering to come. The warrants if exercised would provide $60M in
cash but add 46.2 million shares. The rights offering, depending on price will add somewhere north of 80
million shares. thus pro forma post a rights offering and warrant exercise, we are looking at approximately
230M shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis.
Trilogy and their holdings are private so there is limited disclosure. Canadian investor Valsef Capital
claims their portfolio companies average 35%+ EBITDA, and Upland Software also just guided to this
number as their target going forward. Amdocs trades above 10X EV/EBITDA. If ESW can get Redknee
Solutions to 30% margins on $120M in revenue, it would imply $36M in EBITDA and $360M USD in
EV. This implies a USD share price of $1.56, or more than $2 CAD (effectively a double from here).
The investment becomes more interesting if Joe Liemandt uses Redknee as a platform to make additional
acquisitions in the space, or if they are able to grow revenue or expand margins.
It is worth noting that if I were reporting weekly or monthly numbers and had an entire investor base with
monthly liquidity, this is not an investment I would make. It is effectively a private equity investment in
a public company that will take years to fully play out and management/ESWs current incentives are to
sand bag. Time will tell if this is value off the beaten path or just off the beaten path. So far shares
have traded lower and lower. Currently, my money is on Joe Liemandt and co. with their talent,
OUTLOOK
My outlook has not changed at all from last quarter where I wrote, I am skeptical of the Trump Rally.
I understand the euphoria around the potential for changes to the corporate tax code its impossible to
argue with the math. For profitable companies, when taxes go down, earnings go up and everyone can
party on. Given the Republicans have a majority, the likelihood of reform is clearly increased....Our
process (US Government) of checks and balances is unwieldy and the influence of special interests has
not abated with the new administration. Inertia is a powerful force, and legislation by a committee of
600+ people has the ability to stall or bastardize the magnitude of tax reform the Trump bulls are hoping
for. So, I dont believe in the foundation of the most recent leg of our bull market, but the reality is, our
investments are made on the fundamentals. Ultimately, volatility is our friend. We will continue to invest
with a long time horizon like it is our own money because it is. Thank you for the opportunity to grow
your family capital alongside mine.
Sincerely,
Scott Miller
This document, which is being provided on a confidential basis, shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy which may
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