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Science Food Security PDF
Science Food Security PDF
SPECIAL SECTION
VIEWPOINT
Global food security will remain a worldwide concern for the next 50 years and nearly 35-year delay in meeting the Millennium
beyond. Recently, crop yield has fallen in many areas because of declining invest- Development Goals. In some places, circum-
ments in research and infrastructure, as well as increasing water scarcity. Climate stances will deteriorate, and in sub-Saharan
change and HIV/AIDS are also crucial factors affecting food security in many regions. Africa, the number of malnourished preschool
Although agroecological approaches offer some promise for improving yields, food children will increase between 1997 and 2015,
security in developing countries could be substantially improved by increased in- after which they will only decrease slightly
vestment and policy reforms. until 2050. South Asia is another region of
concernalthough progress is expected in this
The ability of agriculture to support growing erosion and desertification. Increasing devel- region, more than 30% of preschool children
populations has been a concern for genera- opment into marginal lands may in turn put will remain malnourished by 2030, and 24% by
tions and continues to be high on the global these areas at greater risk of environmental 2050 (21).
policy agenda. The eradication of poverty degradation (10, 11). The HIV/AIDS epidem- Achieving food security needs policy
and hunger was included as one of the United ic is another global concern, with an estimat- and investment reforms on multiple fronts,
Nations Millennium Development Goals ed 42 million cases worldwide at the end of including human resources, agricultural re-
adopted in 2000. One of the targets of the 2002 (12); 95% of those are in developing search, rural infrastructure, water resourc-
Goals is to halve the proportion of people countries. In addition to its direct health, es, and farm- and community-based agri-
who suffer from hunger between 1990 and economic, and social impacts, the disease cultural and natural resources management.
2015 (1). Meeting this food security goal will also affects food security and nutrition. Adult Progressive policy action must not only
be a major challenge. Predictions of food labor is often removed from affected house- increase agricultural production, but also
security outcomes have been a part of the holds, and these households will have less boost incomes and reduce poverty in rural
policy landscape since Malthus An Essay on capacity to produce or buy food, as assets are areas where most of the poor live. If we
the Principle of Population of 1798 (2). Over often depleted for medical or funeral costs take such an approach, we can expect pro-
the past several decades, some experts have (13). The agricultural knowledge base will duction between 1997 and 2050 to increase
expressed concern about the ability of agri- deteriorate as individuals with farming and by 71% for cereals and by 131% for meats.
cultural production to keep up with global science experience succumb to the disease A reduction in childhood malnutrition
food demands (35), whereas others have (14). Can food security goals be met in the would follow; the number of malnourished
forecast that technological advances or ex- face of these old and new challenges? children would decline from 33 million in
pansions of cultivated area would boost pro- Several organizations have developed quan- 1997 to 16 million in 2050 in sub-Saharan
duction sufficiently to meet rising demands titative models that project global food supply Africa, and from 85 million to 19 million in
(68). So far, dire predictions of a global food and demand into the future (1519). According South Asia (Fig. 1).
security catastrophe have been unfounded. to the most recent baseline projections of the Increased investment in people is essential
Nevertheless, crop yield growth has International Food Policy Research Institutes to accelerate food security improvements. In
slowed in much of the world because of (IFPRIs) International Model for Policy Anal- agricultural areas, education works directly to
declining investments in agricultural re- ysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade enhance the ability of farmers to adopt more
search, irrigation, and rural infrastructure and (IMPACT) (20), global cereal
increasing water scarcity. New challenges to production is estimated to in-
food security are posed by climate change crease by 56% between 1997 and
and the morbidity and mortality of human 2050, and livestock production
immunodeficiency virus/acquired immuno- by 90%. Developing countries
deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). Many will account for 93% of cereal-
studies predict that world food supply will demand growth and 85% of
not be adversely affected by moderate cli- meat-demand growth to 2050.
mate change, by assuming farmers will take Income growth and rapid urban-
adequate steps to adjust to climate change ization are major forces driving
and that additional CO2 will increase yields increased demand for higher val-
(9). However, many developing countries are ued commodities, such as meats,
likely to fare badly. In warmer or tropical fruits, and vegetables. Interna-
environments, climate change may result in tional agricultural trade will in-
more intense rainfall events between pro- crease substantially, with devel-
longed dry periods, as well as reduced or oping countries cereal imports
more variable water resources for irrigation. doubling by 2025 and tripling by
Such conditions may promote pests and dis- 2050. Child malnutrition will Fig. 1. Projected number of malnourished children in South
ease on crops and livestock, as well as soil persist in many developing coun- Asia and sub-Saharan Africa under baseline and progressive
tries, although overall, the share policy actions scenarios, 1997 to 2050. Blue-green squares,
South Asia, baseline scenario; red asterisks, South Asia, pro-
International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K of malnourished children is pro- gressive policy actions scenario; yellow diamonds, sub-Saharan
Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20006, USA. jected to decline from 31% in Africa, baseline scenario; purple triangles, sub-Saharan Africa,
*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E- 1997 to 14% in 2050 (Fig. 1). progressive policy actions scenario. Source: International Food
mail: [email protected] Nevertheless, this represents a Policy Research Institute (21).
advanced technologies and crop-management cation of molecular biotechnology has been tem services. All of these issues require invest-
techniques and to achieve higher rates of mostly limited to a small number of traits of ment in research, system development, and
return on land (22). Moreover, education en- interest to commercial farmers, mainly devel- knowledge sharing.
courages movement into more remunerative oped by a few global life science companies. To implement agricultural innovation, we
nonfarm work, thus increasing household in- Although much of the science and many need collective action at the local level, as
come. Womens education affects nearly ev- of the tools and intermediate products of well as the participation of government and
ery dimension of development, from lower- biotechnology are transferable to solve high- nongovernmental organizations that work at
ing fertility rates to raising productivity and priority problems in the tropics and subtrop- the community level. There have been sever-
improving environmental management (23). ics, it is generally agreed that the private al successful programs, including those that
Research in Brazil shows that 25% of chil- sector will not invest sufficiently to make the use water harvesting and conservation tech-
dren were stunted if their mothers had four or needed adaptations in these regions with lim- niques (42, 43). Another priority is participa-
fewer years of schooling; however, this fig- ited market potential. Consequently, the pub- tory plant breeding for yield increases in
ure fell to 15% if the mothers had a primary lic sector will have to play a key role, much rainfed agrosystems, particularly in dry and
education and to 3% if mothers had any of it by accessing proprietary tools and prod- remote areas. Farmer participation can be
secondary education (24). Poverty reduction ucts from the private sector (37). used in the very early stages of breed selec-
is usually enhanced by an increase in the Irrigation is the largest water user world- tion to help find crops suited to a multitude of
proportion of educational resources going to wide, but also the first sector to lose out as environments and farmer preferences. It may
primary education and to the poorest groups scarcity increases (38). The challenges of be the only feasible route for crop breeding in
or regions (2527). Investments in health and water scarcity are heightened by the increas- remote regions, where a high level of crop
nutrition, including safe drinking water, im- ing costs of developing new water sources, diversity is required within the same farm, or
proved sewage disposal, immunization, and soil degradation in irrigated areas, groundwa- for minor crops that are neglected by formal
public health services, also contribute to pov- ter depletion, water pollution, and ecosystem breeding programs (44, 45).
erty reduction. For example, a study in Ethio- degradation. Wasteful use of already devel- Making substantial progress in improving
pia shows that the distance to a water source, as oped water supplies may be encouraged by food security will be difficult, and it does mean
well as nutrition and morbidity, all affect agri- subsidies and distorted incentives that influ- reform of currently accepted agricultural practices.
cultural productivity of households (28). ence water use. Hence, investment is needed However, innovations in agroecological ap-
When rural infrastructure has deteriorated to develop new water management policies proaches and crop breeding have brought some
or is nonexistent, the cost of marketing farm and infrastructure. Although the economic documented successes. Together with investment
produce, and thus escaping subsistence agri- and environmental costs of irrigation make in research and water and transport infrastructure,
culture and improving incomes, can be pro- many investments unprofitable, much could we can make major improvements to global food
hibitive for poor farmers. Rural roads in- be achieved by water conservation and in- security, especially for the rural poor.
crease agricultural production by bringing creased efficiency in existing systems and by
new land into cultivation and by intensifying increased crop productivity per unit of water References
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SPECIAL SECTION
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VIEWPOINT
Attaining sustainability will require concerted interactive efforts among disciplines, many of disciplinary collaboration of other social and nat-
which have not yet recognized, and internalized, the relevance of environmental issues to ural sciences, engineering, and the humanities (3).
their main intellectual discourse. The inability of key scientic disciplines to engage interac- Neither mainstream demography nor eco-
tively is an obstacle to the actual attainment of sustainability. For example, in the list of nomics, for the most part, incorporates suffi-
Millennium Development Goals from the United Nations World Summit on Sustainable cient appreciation of environmental criticalities
Development, Johannesburg, 2002, the seventh of the eight goals, to ensure environmental into their thinking. They implictly assume that
sustainability, is presented separately from the parallel goals of reducing fertility and the world is an open, steady-state system within
poverty, improving gains in equity, improving material conditions, and enhancing population which discipline-specific processes can be stud-
health. A more integrated and consilient approach to sustainability is urgently needed. ied. Although contemporary ecology has
broadened its perspectives significantly, there
For human populations, sustainability means mance, greater energy efficiency, better urban is a tendency to exclude consideration of both
transforming our ways of living to maximize the design, improved transport systems, better con- human influence and dependence on ecosys-
chances that environmental and social conditions servation of recreational amenities, and so on. tem composition, development, and dynam-
will indefinitely support human security, well- However, such changes in technologies, behav- ics. Epidemiologists focus mainly on
being, and health. In particular, the flow of non- iors, amenities, and equity are only the means to individual-level behaviors and circumstances
substitutable goods and services from ecosystems attaining desired human experiential outcomes, as causes of disease. This discounts the un-
must be sustained. The contemporary stimulus for including autonomy, opportunity, security, and derlying social, cultural, and political deter-
exploring sustainability is the accruing evidence health. These are the true ends of sustainabil- minants of the distribution of disease risk
that humankind is jeopardizing its own longer ityand there has been some recognition that within and between populations, and has
term interests by living beyond Earths means, their attainment, and their sharing, will be op- barely recognized the health risks posed by
thereby changing atmospheric composition and timized by reducing the rich-poor divide (2). todays global environmental changes.
depleting biodiversity, soil fertility, ocean fisher- Some reasons for the failure to achieve a col- These four disciplines share a limited ability
ies, and freshwater supplies (1). lective vision of how to attain sustainability lie in to appreciate that the fate of human populations
Much early discussion about sustainability the limitations of, and disjunction between, disci- depends on the biospheres capacity to provide a
has focused on readily measurable intermediate plines we think should be central to our under- continued flow of goods and services. The as-
outcomes such as increased economic perfor- standing of sustainability: demography, econom- sumption of human separateness from the natu-
ics, ecology, and epidemiology. These disciplines ral world perpetuates a long-standing, biblically
bear on the size and economic activities of the based premise of Western scientific thought of
1
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population
Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
human population, how the population relates to Man as master, with dominion over Nature (4).
0200, Australia. 2Department of Systems Ecology, the natural world, and the health consequences of Many disciplines still apply world views that
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden. ecologically injudicious behavior. Sustainability predate current understanding of complex sys-
*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E- issues are of course not limited to these four tem dynamics and of how human evolutionary
mail: [email protected] disciplines, but require the engagement and inter- history has developed with, and helped shape,