An Alternative Model For Evaluating Sustainable Urbanization
An Alternative Model For Evaluating Sustainable Urbanization
An Alternative Model For Evaluating Sustainable Urbanization
Cities
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cities
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: In recent years, there has been rapid urbanization worldwide, resulting in both benets and problems.
Received 29 September 2010 Sustainable urbanization has become an important aspect in promoting sustainable development. Exist-
Received in revised form 8 June 2011 ing studies have introduced various methodologies to guide urbanization towards sustainable practices.
Accepted 24 June 2011
The application of these methods has contributed to improving urban sustainability. To further support
Available online 22 July 2011
the effective applications of the principles of sustainable urbanization, a tool is needed to evaluate
whether a particular process of urbanization is sustainable. In this paper, we introduce an alternative
Keywords:
model for evaluating sustainable urbanization by investigating the relationship between urbanization
Sustainable urbanization
Urban sustainability
and urban sustainability. The practice of sustainable urbanization is dened as a dynamic process that
Urban sustainability velocity (VlS) enables urban sustainability to improve or to maintain a certain level of practice. By employing this def-
Urbanization rate inition, we introduce a sustainable urbanization elasticity coefcient eSU, which is dened by two param-
Urbanization velocity (VlR) eters: urbanization velocity (VlR) and urban sustainability velocity (VlS). The sustainability of an
Sustainable urbanization elasticity urbanization process is measured by the value of eSU or read from the VlRVlS coordinate. A case study
coefcient (eSU) demonstrates the application of the measure eSU and the VlRVlS coordinate. The proposed model is an
VlRVlS coordinate effective tool to help policy makers understand whether the urbanization processes they support are sus-
tainable and thus whether to correct practices. The model also allows comparison of different urbaniza-
tion practices and thereby encourages the sharing of successful experiences.
2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
0264-2751/$ - see front matter 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.cities.2011.06.008
L. Shen et al. / Cities 29 (2012) 3239 33
Economy development
and societys response to these environmental changes. Nijkamp
and Pepping (1998) introduced a Pentagon Model to address
hardware, software, nware, orgware, and ecoware as
ve major factors for implementing renewable energy technolo-
gies to achieve better urban sustainability. May, Mitchell, and
Kupiszewska (1997) introduced the Quantiable City Model to
examine urban sustainability from six perspectives: physical envi-
ronment, resources, health, security, services and infrastructure,
and community development. Ferrarini, Bodini, and Becchi urbanization
(2001) and Boggia and Cortina (2010) identied appropriate
environmental and socioeconomic indicators and then adopted Fig. 3. An illustration of relationship between economy performance and urban-
ization level.
multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess the sustainability
of a particular area. These methodologies provide valuable strate-
gies for examining the relationship between urbanization and
SS(Urbanization)the social contribution to urban sustainability in the
urban sustainability.
process of urbanization
Although there is little research on the relationship between
The relationship between urbanization and urban sustainability
urbanization and social development, some studies have argued
that in its initial stage, urbanization has positive effects on social
While the methods for studying urban sustainability are vari-
aspects, including social mobilization, literacy, political participa-
ous, they embody a common principle: urban sustainability should
tion, education, income, and health (Christopher, 2008; Glaeser,
be assessed in terms of the economic, social, and ecological devel-
1998; Tanter, 1967; Udry, 1964). However, these effects become
opment of a city (Burgess, Carmona, & Kolstee, 1997; Harris, 1992;
negative when urbanization goes beyond the carrying capacity of
Marcotullio, 2001). Thus, urban sustainability integrates the sus-
a city (Sobotka, 2006). Therefore, the relationship between urban-
tainability of economic, social, and ecological development in a
ization and its social contribution is exhibited in Fig. 4.
city, and this integration can be expressed as follows:
lS SE [ SS [ SEn 1 SEn(Urbanization)the environmental contribution to urban
sustainability in the process of urbanization
where lS denotes urban sustainability, SE indicates economic sus-
Previous studies have investigated the relationship between
tainability, SS indicates social sustainability, and SEn indicates envi-
urbanization and ecological consequences. Alberti and Marzluff
ronmental sustainability.
(2004) developed a model for illustrating this relationship, as
Because urbanization is closely associated with economic, so-
shown in Fig. 5. This model suggests that ecological quality may in-
cial, and ecological development in a city, it is the key variable
crease in the initial stage of urbanization due to the benets cre-
determining the performance of urban sustainability. Accordingly,
ated by urban agglomerations, but quality decreases from
Formula (1) can be rewritten as:
environmental degradation induced by rapid urbanization. With-
lS SE Urbanization [ SS Urbanization [ SEn Urbanization 2 out external intervention, the deterioration would continue, result-
ing in the citys demolition or abandonment. However, because
where SE(Urbanization) indicates the economic contribution to ur-
urban development is guided by policies, ecological quality can
ban sustainability in the process of urbanization, SS(Urbanization)
be improved and maintained at a certain level through policy
denotes the social contribution, and SEn(Urbanization) indicates
intervention.
the environmental contribution.
By considering the curves SE, SS, and SEn in Figs. 35, an inte-
grated curve is obtained, as shown in Fig. 6, which presents the
SE(Urbanization)the economic contribution to urban sustainability
relationship between urban sustainability and urbanization if
in the process of urbanization
urbanization is practiced sustainably. In the initial stage, the im-
It is widely understood that urbanization is the major driver of a
pact of urbanization on economic and social development is low,
citys economic development (e.g., Kasarda & Crenshaw, 1991;
and therefore, urban sustainability is low, although ecological
Scott & Storper, 2003). Berry (1973) suggested that there is a close
performance may be comparatively high. When urbanization
relationship between GNP per capita and urbanization. According
to this study, GNP per capita, as a major indicator of economic
development, grows at an increasing rate that drives the initial
stage of urbanization due to the benets brought by urban agglom- SS
erations. Moreover, researchers know that even the later stages of
urbanization, which consist of urban concentration, can strongly
Social development
vides a useful framework for conducting further analysis on of stages lR at time t1 and t2, respectively. Furthermore, DlR is the
sustainable urbanization. increment of the rate of urbanization in a specied time interval,
while t1 and t2 are the observed points in time, and Dt is the incre-
Sustainable urbanization ment of the time interval.
Step 2: measure urban sustainability (lS) (1) Quadrant (I): sustainable urbanization
The measure of lS has been introduced in Formula (1), and lS is Quadrant (I) represents these relationships: VlR > 0 and VlS > 0.
used to measure the extent to which a city has achieved a desirable This is considered a sustainable urbanization practice, where
stage of sustainability (Banister, 1998). While previous studies VlR > 0 indicates urbanization growth, while VlS > 0 suggests
have introduced various measurements for urban sustainability, improvement of urban sustainability. In this context, the urbaniza-
the most effective is an index value by using a set of indicators tion process is able to achieve sustainability and is therefore sus-
(Gasparatos, El-Haram, & Horner, 2008). It is known that indicators tainable urbanization.
can present relevant information in an effective form to facilitate
communication among experts, policy makers, and the public (2) Quadrant (II): sustainable counter-urbanization
(Alberti, 1996). Effective communication on the state of urban sus-
tainability is essential, particularly for the public. Only efforts Quadrant (II) shows these relationships: VlR < 0 and VlS > 0.
shared by the public and other stakeholders can result in achieving Although there is counter-urbanization, the practice is considered
sustainable urbanization strategies (Enserink & Koppenjan, 2007). sustainable. The relationship VlR < 0 indicates a counter-urbaniza-
The value of lS for particular cities can be measured with the indi- tion process, while VlS > 0 indicates improvement of urban sus-
cator system developed in studies, for example, the International tainability. Counter-urbanization may be necessary to solve
Urban Sustainability Indicator List developed by Shen, Ochoa, Shah, certain urban problems and to improve urban sustainability. If ur-
et al. (2011). ban sustainability is improved, the counter-urbanization process is
The value of lS varies in the process of urbanization, as exhib- a sustainable practice. This phenomenon occurs in areas where so-
ited in Fig. 2, and it can be assessed at any given point in time. cial and ecological problems are alleviated because urban people
When the time interval from t1 to t2 is considered, the change of move away or the urban populations birth rate decreases.
urban sustainability can be examined by the velocity of urban sus-
tainability, which is calculated according to the following Formula (3) Quadrant (III): unsustainable counter-urbanization
(4).
Quadrant (III) represents these relationships: VlR < 0 and
lSt2 lSt1 Dl S VlS < 0. The practice in this quadrant refers to a process of coun-
V lS 4
t2 t1 Dt ter-urbanization and an unsustainable practice. The relationship
VlR < 0 implies a process of counter-urbanization, while VlS < 0
where VlS is the velocity of urban sustainability, lSt and lSt repre- indicates that urban sustainability is declining in the process of
1 2
sent urban sustainability with lS at time t1 and t2, and DlS indicates urbanization. The practice in this quadrant is more likely to occur
the increment of urbanization sustainability in the specied time in urban areas whose carrying capacity has been destroyed and is
interval, while t1 and t2 are the observed points in time and Dt rep- unrecoverable, for example, as a result of wars or natural disasters,
resents the increment of the time interval. and therefore, urban people move away and abandon the urban
areas.
(b) VlR < 0 and VlS < 0, which is the scenario in quadrant (III) in the Table 2
coordinate and indicates an unsustainable process of counter- The urbanization rate lR for the four cities in the case study between 1995 and 2000.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, China City Statistical Yearbook (1996
urbanization. However, when eSU < 0, there are also two possible 2001)
scenarios: (a) VlR < 0 and VlS > 0, which is the scenario in quadrant
(II) in the VlRVlS coordinate, indicating a sustainable process of City 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
counter-urbanization, and (b) VlR > 0 and VlS < 0, which is the sce- Qi 0.691 0.7 0.709 0.721 0.726 0.744
nario in quadrant (IV) in the coordinate, indicating an unsustain- Ma 0.774 0.775 0.774 0.779 0.787 0.791
Ta 0.14 0.144 0.156 0.17 0.184 0.193
able process of urbanization. Wu 0.886 0.876 0.824 0.81 0.81 0.845
Formulas (3)(5) form a model for evaluating the sustainability
of urbanization. The eSU and the VlRVlS coordinate are tools to Note. Urbanization rate was measured by the ratio of non-agricultural population to
total population in the context of China.
evaluate whether a particular process of urbanization is consistent
with sustainable practices. The higher eSU, the better sustainability
of the process of urbanization for the scenarios in quadrants (I) and
Table 3
(II).
VUR, VUS and eSU for the four cities in the case study between 1995 and 2000.
The implications of urbanization can also be interpreted in
other terms, such as the physical growth of urban areas as a result City VlR VlS eSU
of global change (Bhatta, 2010). Cam, Nichols, Sauer, et al. (2000) Qi 0.011 0.022 2.08
suggested measuring rates of urbanization by index, for example, Ma 0.003 0.026 7.65
Ta 0.011 0.018 1.7
according to the ratio of urban land coverage. However, the devel-
Wu 0.008 0.018 2.2
oped evaluation model in this study provides a general framework
for measuring the sustainability of urbanization, which will follow
the same procedures dened in the model when working with dif-
ferent interpretations of urbanization and urbanization rate. The 2000. Of these cities, Wu experienced a decrease in urban popula-
model is validated as long as urbanization continues, and rates of tion, while the other three cities evidenced population growth.
urbanization can be measured accordingly. Furthermore, the value eSU in Table 3 allows comparison of
urbanization sustainability among the four cities between 1995
and 2000. In the table, the eSU is 7.65 for Ma, 2.2 for Wu, 2.08
for Qi and 1.7 for Ta. Ma has the highest improvement in the per-
Application of the model for evaluating sustainable
formance of sustainable urbanization, a nding that is consistent
urbanization
with the results of Van Dijk and Zhang (2005).
Qi with eSU of 2.08, is a coastal city in a relatively developed area
A designated case study illustrates how to apply the model for
in China. Its pillar industry used to be the citys harbor and tourism.
evaluating sustainable urbanization introduced in the previous
However, the local authorities of Qi have shifted its development
section. To apply the model, data for the two parameters, namely
policy toward industrialization and urbanization since 1998. The
urbanization rate lR and urban sustainability lS, are needed. To
citys urbanization grew between 1995 and 2000, and its urban
simplify the discussion while preserving a general focus, the data
sustainability improved in this period due to economic and social
in this designated case of lS are collected from results of urban sus-
development. Therefore, urbanization in Qi during the study period
tainability assessments established by other researchers, and the
was consistent with sustainable practices.
data for lR are collected from published reports of statistics.
Ma is an inland city in a relatively developed area, and the chief
The results of urban sustainability assessments performed by
industry is steel. This city, located in Anhui Province, is reported to
Van Dijk and Zhang (2005) are included. In their study, urban sus-
be well managed since 1989 and received a prize for being a na-
tainability lS for four medium-sized Chinese cities was calculated
tional model of urban environmental protection in 2006 (BEPPRC,
for the period between 1995 and 2000, including Qinhuangdao (Qi)
2006, Anhui Development, 2008). Table 1 shows that the urban
in Hebei province, Maanshan (Ma) in Anhui province, Taizhou (Ta)
sustainability of Ma improved during the study period. The urban-
in Zhejiang province and Wuhai (Wu) in the Inner Mongolia Auton-
ization rate did not change much in the period. Therefore, the eSU
omous Region. The assessment results are shown in Table 1. How-
was very high; in fact, it was the highest of the four cities exam-
ever, the data for the urbanization rates lR for these four cities are
ined, indicating good improvement in sustainability performance.
available from the statistics bureaus for the period from 1995 to
Ta is a coastal city in a developed area of China, with the
2000, which are shown in Table 2.
chemical and medical industries dominating. It was the wealthiest
By applying the data in Tables 1 and 2 to Formulas (3)(5), the
city in the study. Its urban sustainability improved during the
VlR, the VlS, and the eSU can be calculated. The calculation results
study period, while its rate of urbanization did not change much.
are shown in Table 3.
By applying the VlRVlS coordinate presented in Fig. 8, the VlR
and VlS of the four cities can be allocated in the coordinate, as
shown in Fig. 9. Based on discussions in the previous section of 0.03
the four scenarios in the four quadrants, the processes of urbaniza-
0.025
tion in all four cities are considered sustainable between 1995 and
Vus
0.02 Qi
Ma
Table 1 0.015
Ta
The urban sustainability lS for the four cities in the case study between 1995 and
0.01
2000. Source: calculation based on Van Dijk and Zhang (2005). Wu
City 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 0.005
Therefore, the city achieved good sustainability elasticity in its environmental backgrounds, the sharing of experiences should be
urbanization process, with the eSU value of 1.7. encouraged. The proposed model also allows comparison of vari-
Wu is an inland city in a relatively undeveloped area with pri- ous processes of urbanization and thus encourages the sharing of
mary industries of coal mining and livestock farming. The citys experiences from different practices.
coal mining had produced signicant employment, and thus its
rate of urbanization was very high. However, the rate of urbaniza-
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