Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Credit Suisse Investment Outlook 2018
Credit Suisse Investment Outlook 2018
Outlook 2018
Next Generation’s
Footsteps
D
o not seek to
follow in the
footsteps of the
men of old;
seek what they
sought.
Matsuo Bashō
e at Credit Suisse are committed
W
to helping strengthen the
banking system, while taking
on the major – but exciting –
technological challenges
that we face in our industry.
From my
perspective
Tidjane Thiam
CEO Credit Suisse Group AG
Over the past year, we have witnessed a significant Markets Union must be further strengthened to ensure
increase in global economic activity and, in line with that, that growth is sustained and that crisis risks remain
a strong performance of risk assets. Core government contained. Globally, cooperation must be strengthened
bonds – the key holdings of many institutional investors – in security matters – which include the all-important
once again delivered meager results. A recovery of issues of terrorism and cybersecurity – while protectionist
returns in this fundamental asset class will take time, but trends are resisted.
with worries over “secular stagnation” subsiding and
central banks taking cautious steps toward policy normal We at Credit Suisse are committed to helping strengthen
ization, the process is now under way. the banking system, while taking on the major – but
exciting – technological challenges that we face in our
This strong performance of risk assets comes against industry. Being at the forefront of digitalization and
the backdrop of significant geopolitical tensions, in technological innovation is one of the essential demands
particular concerning North Korea, but also at a time of of our up-and-coming generation of clients, the so-called
policy uncertainty in the United States. Concerns over Millennials, and is therefore very important to us. To
Europe have decreased as electoral populism has made gauge their aspirations and interests and because we
less progress than anticipated since growth has been always want to listen to the voice of our clients ahead
better than expected. In spite of these positive trends, of all other considerations, we have invited a group of
we feel that some of the underlying fragilities of the Millennial clients to contribute to this publication.
European Union have not been completely remedied. In
coming years, the focus must be on consolidating I wish you all a very prosperous and fulfilling year.
the relatively limited stability that has been achieved. In
particular, the European Monetary, Banking and Capital Tidjane Thiam
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 5
Content overview
Contents
34
Special
Insights from
Next Generation investors
38
Financial markets
40 Growth underpins equities
43 Spotlight: Default rates
46 Spotlight: Currency impact
48 Mind the risks
50 Portfolio checks 2018
52 Investment themes 2018
55 Spotlight: Supertrends
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 7
Editorial
Next Generation
on the rise
Michael Strobaek Global Chief Investment Officer
Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 9
Review 2017
20 January 18 May
Inauguration of Political stress
US President in Brazil
01 March
Donald Trump Brazil’s President
IPO of
Donald Trump is Michel Temer
inaugurated as the Snapchat is accused of
45th President of The going-public
23 April corruption,
the United States of Snap Inc. is the
which drives
biggest technology 29 March 1st round
of America. the Brazilian
initial public offering UK triggers majority for Ibovespa index 08 June
(IPO) since Alibaba. Article 50 Emmanuel 9% lower on UK election
Snap shares close The beginning of Macron the day. surprise
up 44% on the first difficult negotiations Emmanuel Macron
trading day. Theresa May’s
over the terms of wins the majority
decision to call
Brexit. of votes in the first
snap elections
round of the French
to strengthen her
election, paving
hand in the Brexit
15 March the way for his
negotiations with
Fed rate hike election victory in
28 February the EU backfires.
Despite fairly the second round
23 January Best month in early May.
weak growth data,
1.15 President of the year for 01 April
the US Federal
Trump S&P 500 Reserve (Fed) Bitcoin in the
withdraws The US large-cap raises the fast lane
from TPP S&P 500 index Fed funds rate Japan accepts
As one of his first rises by ~4%, as by 0.25% with Bitcoin as a legal
official acts, US company earnings little forewarning. payment method.
President Trump surprise to the A further rate From 1 April to
pulls out of the upside and enter hike follows in end-August, the
Trans-Pacific Part- a positive growth June; a final value of 1 Bitcoin
nership (TPP) trade trend. one is forecast surges 344% in
deal. In June, he for December. USD.
06 June
also withdraws from
the Paris climate Progress on
accord. Eurozone bank
clean-up
Spain’s Banco
12 May Santander buys the
Global struggling Banco
cyberattack Popular, also of
The WannaCry Spain, for EUR 1,
worm infects rescuing it from the
several hundreds brink of collapse.
of thousands of
computers in over
150 countries,
1.05 including those of
Britain’s National
Health Service.
02 November
Next Fed chair
US President Donald
Trump nominates
Jerome Powell to
become the next
Chairman of the US
Federal Reserve. The
nomination suggests
monetary policy
continuity and limited
financial deregulation.
03 September
North Korea
tensions EUR / USD
Rhetoric and
02 August
military threats
Diesel between US Presi- 22 October
disgraced dent Donald Trump Snap elections 15 December
The German and North Korean
government and in Japan Debt ceiling
leader Kim Jong-un
carmakers hold Japanese Prime and govern-
escalate.
the National Diesel Minister Shinzo Abe ment funding
Forum to find secures a stronger expire in the
solutions for the mandate as Japan United States
scandal-ridden prepares to respond Congress needs to
24 September to growing military
sector. approve government
German Chan- threats in the funding and raise
28 August cellor Angela region. the debt ceiling to
Amazon goes Merkel wins keep the govern-
10 July
green reelection ment funded. With
EUR / CHF
Amazon completes The result triggers a proper budget
breaches 1.10 complex nego
the acquisition now set, both mea-
For the first time tiations over a new
of Whole Foods 18 October sures should pass.
since the Swiss coalition – the
Markets and cuts Chinese Com-
National Bank right-wing AfD
Whole Foods prices
abandoned the enters parliament. munist Party
by as much as 43%
minimum exchange Congress
on completion day. 30 November
rate of EUR / CHF The 19 th National
1.20 in January Annual OPEC
Congress of
2015, EUR / CHF China’s Communist meeting in
rises above 1.10. Party allows Vienna
Chinese President Expectations are
Xi Jinping to con- for the Organiza-
solidate his political tion of Petroleum
power. Exporting Countries
(OPEC) to extend
crude oil production
curbs.
W
hat matters
in 2018
What will be the key market drivers in 2018?
We review six, from rising corporate investment
to the role of Millennials.
Corporate capital expenditure on As the economic expansion continues Global merger and acquisition (M&A)
equipment and structures (“capex”) and capacity usage rises, the sustain activity is expected to rise in 2018, en-
slumped in 2009, as companies ability of the major central banks’ couraged by the strength of the global
reined in spending and expansion plans. extremely easy monetary policies is in- economy, historically high corporate
Capex has been rebuilding only slowly creasingly being called into question. cash levels, still low financing costs and
since then. With business confidence and The US Federal Reserve is already a proposed tax break for US corporate
profits high but capacity constraints contracting its balance sheet, while the profit repatriation. The effort to create
tightening, we expect capex to accelerate European Central Bank is set to taper regional champions in Europe is an ad-
in 2018, particularly in manufacturing, its asset purchases in 2018. Tighter ditional driver. Among sectors, health-
information technology, transport and money is not always bad for markets as care is likely to see the strongest M&A
warehousing, and utilities. Higher long as it reflects improving growth, activity globally. In the financial sector,
investment boosts overall economic but central banks’ movements toward the increased pressure for consolidation may
growth while limiting inflation pressure exit could create significant pockets also drive merger activity, not least in
due to productivity enhancements. of volatility in both currencies and stock Europe’s fragmented sector.
This combination is supportive of risk markets. We expect central banks to
assets. proceed with caution, still supporting a Find out more ì
page 44
favorable trend in financial markets
Find out more ì
page 18
in 2018.
After a remarkable credit expansion When stock markets rise with extraor- Millennials, one of the largest gener
over the past decade, China’s high dinary resilience as in recent years, ations in history, are coming of age as
corporate debt levels are set to remain investors tend to start “herding.” Passive consumers, investors and trendsetters.
a lingering concern in 2018. Any investment in stocks tends to rise Placing great importance on topics
downturn in Chinese growth would be while perceptions of risks tend to fade, such as sustainability, clean energy and
a risk to the global economy and up to the point where there is a correc- impact investing, Millennials are open-
markets. An apparent policy bias toward tion. Are investors too complacent now? ing up new opportunities for investors.
stability and credit restraint in China Despite the remarkable uptrend, senti- In 2018, we see renewable energy,
are encouraging, but not without risks ment surveys show that the consensus including solar, wind and energy storage
for asset prices, the economy and remains quite cautious on stocks, systems, as offering strong prospects.
the Chinese renminbi. A growth scare with an unusually large majority of opin- In contrast, Millennials’ preferences
as we saw in 2016 cannot be ruled ions in fact neutral. It may be true for online shopping can be expected
out, but our base case calls for a steady that the best time to buy stocks is when to keep pressure on the traditional
adjustment process with currency others are fearful, but that does not retail sector.
stability. mean one should sell as soon as the
market becomes relaxed. Find out more ì
page 34
Find out more ì
page 30
Find out more ì
page 40
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 13
Global
economy
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 15
Global Economy More growth, dearer money
More growth,
dearer money
Global economic growth For the first time since the financial crisis, economic
should remain strong growth surprised to the upside almost everywhere
in 2017. The greatest growth surprise came from contin
in 2018, as both advanced ental Europe, as previous growth laggards joined
and emerging economies the region’s upswing. Growth pessimism regarding China
also proved unwarranted, as growth rose back above
enjoy a synchronized upturn. 6.5% over the year. Finally, economic growth in the USA
Corporate capital expen actually accelerated toward year-end, notwithstanding the
already extended business cycle. With inflation tending
diture should become a more to surprise to the downside, monetary policy generally
prominent growth driver. remained clearly accommodative. The Fed was the only
central bank to raise interest rates more than once,
While inflation is unlikely to
rise much, central banks trong profitability and
S
will reduce liquidity and raise still supportive financing
interest rates in response conditions should support
to better growth. capital spending in 2018.
260 130
240 120
110
200
100
180 90
160 80
140 70
60
120
50
100 40
2000 04 08 12 16 1990 95 00 05 10 15
Source CPB World Trade Monitor, Credit Suisse Source AMECO, Datastream, Credit Suisse
Last data point July 2017 Last data point 2016 (2017 estimated)
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 17
Global Economy More growth, dearer money
International labor migration rose by an estimated 43% Migration and economic growth
between 2000 and 2015, substantially exceeding Migrants are attracted by fast growing countries and
population growth (20%), although the financial crisis led to contribute to growth by filling jobs across the skill
a temporary setback. The top destination, measured spectrum and adding to the consumer base. The extent
by the number of foreign-born residents, remains the USA to which migration boosts the growth of income per
(46.1 million). Relative to population, the top destinations capita is less clear. In “sender” countries, emigration can
are the Gulf states, Singapore and Switzerland. “South- reduce poverty, but the loss of skilled workers (“brain
South” migration (38% of the total) is actually somewhat drain”) can have significantly negative effects on the
larger than South-North migration (34%), but internal, economy. This may be partly offset by remittances: annual
rural-to-urban migration is dominant, especially in devel- transfers are estimated at USD 441 billion, nearly three
oping countries. In China alone, there are currently more times official development assistance.
than 200 million rural migrants working in urban areas,
up from 15 million in the late 1980s. The educational level Migration and demographics
of international migrants differs significantly among As migrants are typically younger than the local population,
destinations: in advanced economies such as the EU or migration improves demographics. In some rapidly aging
Switzerland, around 60% are well qualified. Refugees developed countries (e.g. Italy), immigration is currently
and asylum seekers constitute only an estimated 7% of the only source of population growth. In Switzerland, net
total flows, with the numbers varying strongly depending migration accounts for 85% of population growth even
on the incidence of political and armed conflict. Largely though there is still a “birth surplus.” However, migration
due to legal restrictions, an average of only 20%–30% are is very unlikely to reverse demographic aging.
employed in the first two years of stay.
Migration, labor markets and public finances
Most controversy surrounds the impact of immigration
on (un)employment and wages. Finding clear evidence
is difficult as immigration is correlated with overall
economic growth and employment. There is some evi-
dence, however, that wages are depressed at least
temporarily in sectors where immigrants compete strongly
with locals. Where social benefits are (too) generous,
unemployment among immigrants tends to be higher and
rise faster in downturns than for locals. Details of
labor market and integration policies can make a large
difference. Overall, immigrants contribute more to
public finances through taxes and social security contri-
butions than they receive in benefits and services.
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 19
Global Economy More growth, dearer money
Re-leveraging to intensify
A key factor holding back growth in some advanced and
emerging markets in recent years has been weak credit
growth. Banks in the Eurozone “periphery,” for instance,
were burdened with high non-performing loans that
limited their ability to grant credit. Deleveraging pressures
were also high in some financially weak emerging
markets such as Brazil. Conversely, credit growth has Looking ahead, we still expect credit growth to strengthen
been on a strong upward trajectory in a number of globally, as laggards such as the Eurozone periphery
other countries. The most extreme is China, where catch up regarding bank credit growth, while corporate
state-guided credit provision, especially to state-owned debt grows either to finance higher capex or to fund
enterprises, has surged in recent years. Meanwhile, other corporate transactions, such as equity buybacks
credit to households has also been growing strongly in or mergers and acquisitions. Further bank consolidation,
other countries, including the USA, the UK, Australia, in particular in Europe, should also support credit growth.
the Nordics as well as Switzerland, generally to finance The gradual monetary policy tightening that we foresee
real estate purchases. Other forms of consumer credit, is unlikely to significantly restrain credit growth. In
such as car and student loans, have also grown strongly, fact, somewhat higher interest rates might even boost
especially in the USA. bank credit as they support bank profitability. Mean-
while, credit growth should ease further in some of the
markets where growth has been particularly strong,
including China and Switzerland, be it due to a natural
slowing in real estate markets or efforts by the authori-
ties to limit credit growth.
2.40 2015
2016
1.80 2017
2018
1.20 Increased deficit
= positive impulse
0.60
0.00
Reduced deficit
0.60
-
= negative impulse
1.20
-
* United
States
Eurozone
Germany
United
Kingdom
Japan
China
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 21
Spotlight: Recessions
How to (try to)
forecast them
Our main macro scenario foresees continued
economic expansion, which is the basis for
our still positive view on risk assets. But, of course,
we need to stay vigilant with regard to recessions.
Which tools are useful to assess their probability?
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 23
Global Economy More growth, dearer money
Will rate hikes pose a threat to growth? Our own estimate is similar while the financial markets’
While this may not be so pertinent in 2018, the key projections imply an even lower rate. All this suggests
medium to longer-term issue is how far central banks that a further three hikes of the Fed funds rate in 2018,
will actually go with their rate hikes. In other words, which would put it above 2%, would take it quite close
the question is where the so-called neutral, or natural, to the currently estimated natural rate. While this is unlikely
rate lies beyond which rate hikes would render mone- to slow the economy significantly – noticeable slow-
tary policy restrictive and thus increase recession risks. downs or recessions typically occur only after monetary
The key long-term determinant of the neutral rate policy significantly overshoots the natural rate – the
of interest is understood to be the long-term rate discussion over excessive policy tightening and the poten
of economic growth determined by productivity growth tial for a US economic slowdown may well intensify
and demographics. Estimates of this rate have been toward the end of 2018.
lowered considerably over the past years. The latest
median estimate of the Fed’s Open Market Committee Finally, our estimates of the natural rate are considerably
puts the US neutral rate at 2.75%. With inflation lower for a number of other advanced countries, including
expected to reach the targeted 2%, the real equilibrium Switzerland and Japan. In both cases, we estimate that
Fed funds rate would thus be at just 0.75%. the real natural rate is in fact negative. In the Swiss case,
this is in part due to the structural safe-haven discount
on interest rates. As inflation is likely to remain well below
the central bank’s target, we project short-term nominal
rates to stay in negative territory in Switzerland well into
2018 and possibly beyond.
250
200
150
100
50
50
-
-100
2009 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Source Bloomberg, Credit Suisse (incl. forecasts) Fed BoJ Forecast Period
Last data point October 2017 (forecasts thereafter) ECB Total
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 25
Spotlight: Cryptocurrencies
Threat or opportunity?
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 27
Global Economy Regions in focus
Regions
in focus Economic growth surprised to the upside almost
everywhere in 2017. In 2018, still supportive monetary
conditions, stronger capital expenditure and slightly
easier fiscal policy should continue to boost growth and
global trade.
stagnation
inflation to begin moving higher in coming months, mostly
driven by fading base effects that lowered inflation in
2017. The tighter labor market should also lead to rising
to overheating ?
wage growth. The impact on inflation will be limited
if productivity growth recovers. We do see chances for
somewhat better productivity growth because corpo-
rate investment should continue to rise in response to
the tight labor market and a stronger growth outlook
of corporations. Our analysis suggests that the cyclical
At the end of 2017, the US economy was on a solid expansion will in the end boost inflation, as the Phillips
footing, with employment expanding, private consump- curve, which postulates a trade-off between inflation and
tion growing, corporate investment picking up but the unemployment, would predict (see chart). By the end of
housing expansion a bit more subdued. Monetary policy 2018, the US economy may thus be getting closer to a
was accommodative, despite the Federal Reserve’s phase of “overheating,” despite monetary policy tightening.
interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction program.
Financial conditions in general eased throughout
the year on the back of a weaker USD, rising equity
markets and tightening credit spreads. The view of
an economy in “secular stagnation” seemed ever harder
to sustain. The key questions for 2018 are how strong
any fiscal policy impulse may be; whether investment
growth will stay robust, and whether that translates into
a productivity recovery; and whether and by how much
inflation will rise.
The Phillips curve still exists
Measurable fiscal impulse Underemployment rates and core services inflation for
While the details of any likely fiscal policy changes are various periods
uncertain, some corporate tax cuts and a one-time tax Core services inflation (% YoY)
reduction on repatriated earnings held overseas seem
20
likely. Yet their growth impact is probably going to
be limited. As a bipartisan agreement on these as well
as income cuts seems unlikely, Republicans will need to
15
pass them with their own narrow Senate majority, implying
the need for revenue neutrality on a 10 -year horizon.
However, by front-loading tax cuts, there is likely to be
10
a moderate fiscal impulse. The November mid-term
elections increase the incentive to provide some kind of
tax “present” to voters. In sum: The US business cycle
is likely to stay robust for another year. 5
0
5 10 15 20
1979 –1982 1992 –2002
1983 –1991 2003 –2017
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 29
Global Economy Regions in focus
25
20
15
10 Credit as a %
of GDP increasing
5
0
Credit as a %
-5 of GDP falling
-10
2006 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
limited reforms
some fear renewed financial stress in the Eurozone.
We believe these risks are limited, as the banking system
is significantly more robust due to recapitalization,
lower non-performing loans (see chart), consolidation, and
reduced exposure to sovereign bonds. It seems likely
that regulators will press for added bank consolidation,
which should further boost bank profitability. However,
2017 will be remembered as the year in which growth the acceleration of common deposit insurance, not to
finally reached all of continental Europe and political mention broader fiscal union, seems quite unlikely in light
risks diminished, as the pro-European Emmanuel Macron of divergent political interests. What is more likely is the
was elected president in France and Chancellor Angela eventual transformation of the European Stability Mech-
Merkel won a fourth term in Germany. In 2018 growth anism into a strengthened European Monetary Fund.
should remain robust, while a reinvigorated German-
French alliance could lead to enhanced cooperation in
the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone. While
Brexit negotiations are unlikely to be completed, eco-
nomic pressure on the UK, as well as its political
fractures, suggests a move toward a soft and delayed
Brexit. In Italy, the constitutional structure suggests
that a centrist coalition will continue to govern after the
elections in the spring, even though euroskeptic
parties are stronger than elsewhere and economic
fundamentals still weaker. The risk of a political crisis
or euro exit of Italy thus remains limited, in our view.
2007
09 11 13 15 17
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 31
Global Economy Regions in focus
Switzerland: From
domestic to Residential property to exert a drag
Weaker population growth, high household debt, tighter
foreign drivers
conditions on mortgages and the increasing oversupply
of residential property are challenging the real estate
sector. According to our estimates, between 5,000
and 6,000 excess apartments are currently constructed
each year, accounting for a good 10% of new con-
struction activity. Removing that “excess” would lower
GDP by around 0.5%, but given full order books,
Thanks to a “super cycle” fueled by high immigration the construction sector should still support GDP growth
and a real estate boom, Switzerland sailed through in 2018. The normalization of construction activity
the economic turmoil after 2007 more or less unscathed. and a correction of the oversupply will weigh on growth
Despite the much stronger CHF, the Swiss export in subsequent years (see chart).
champions, in particular the pharmaceuticals sector,
contributed to robust growth. Yet both key growth Export recovery a partial offset
drivers – immigration and the property cycle – are expect- The Swiss export champions are not immune to setbacks,
ed to lose momentum going forward. Net immigration as they are at risk of interventions by governments
is already at the lowest level since the free movement of worried about rising healthcare costs. However, the
persons with the EU was introduced in 2007. This overall export outlook is more favorable due to stronger
largely reflects the improved labor market situation in the growth and a weaker CHF. Given reduced demand
European countries of origin, a trend that is likely to for safe haven currencies, the CHF should remain weak.
persist. Should the balance of immigration to Switzerland However, even in the very open Swiss economy, exports
fall to its long-term average, GDP growth would be constitute only about 40% of GDP. To achieve sustainable
an estimated 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points lower than in prosperity gains, stronger productivity growth is needed
the peak years. in domestic sectors that are still protected from competi-
tion and are thus less efficient.
-1
-2
1980 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16
Growth contributions of construction investments Source Swiss Ministry of Economic Affairs (SECO), Credit Suisse
Real GDP growth Last data point 2016
EMEA: Benefiting from Eurozone expansion and Global 3.1 3.6 3.8 2.7 2.8 2.7
more stable commodity prices USA 1.5 2.2 2.5 1.3 2.1 2.1
In Eastern and Central Europe, the outlook remains Canada 1.5 3.0 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.9
particularly bright in Poland, the Czech Republic, Eurozone 1.8 2.3 2.0 0.2 1.5 1.5
Hungary and many smaller economies, which continue Germany 1.8 2.2 2.0 0.4 1.6 1.6
to benefit from the outsourcing trend of Western Italy 0.9 1.6 1.4 -0.1 1.4 1.4
European companies and the Eurozone’s cyclical upturn. France 1.2 1.8 2.0 0.3 1.1 1.2
Russia’s economy is likely to continue its recovery path,
United Kingdom 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 2.7 2.2
benefiting from more stable commodity prices as well as
Switzerland 1.4 1.0 * 1.7 -0.4 0.5 0.5
low inflation and declining interest rates. Turkey’s
Japan 1.0 1.6 1.3 -0.1 0.5 0.6
industries are also supported by the European and global
Australia 2.5 2.2 2.5 1.3 1.9 2.0
upswing despite the dependence on foreign capital
inflows. The outlook for South Africa is clouded by China 6.7 6.8 6.5 2.0 1.7 2.2
political uncertainty, but the reformist forces appear to India 7.1 6.7 7.5 4.5 3.5 4.5
(fiscal year)
be gaining ground.
Brazil -3.6 0.7 2.5 8.8 3.5 4.0
Russia -0.2 1.8 1.8 7.1 3.8 4.0
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 33
Special Insights from Next Generation investors
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 35
Special Insights from Next Generation investors
Energy
efficiency costs by as much as 20%. It all begins with rethinking
how energy is used in a production process. Depending
on the initial conditions, a project redesigning motor
utilization pays itself back in 4 to 8 months and a com
Savings from energy efficiency have the potential to plete retrofit of equipment pays itself back in 12 to 18
surpass the output generated by any single fuel source. months using the savings from the interventions. These
Electric motor systems account for more than half of relatively short time frames open up new investment
today’s electricity consumption. According to the Inter- opportunities. A savings-backed industrial retrofit debt
national Energy Agency (IEA), applying more stringent fund, for instance, has a lower delinquency rate,
standards to such systems, from transportation to and new business models where companies sell horse-
industry, would reduce global energy needs by 30%. power or cubic meters of air instead of engines, and
However, energy efficiency only materializes once air compressors ensure high equipment efficiency, higher
the combined impact of several small and scattered margins and steady income streams compared to one-
interventions becomes perceptible. The advent of time equipment sales.
the Internet of Things (IoT) technologies and improved
sensors have reduced upfront capital expenditure and
made it easier to aggregate the effects of the interven-
tions. Putting an industrial plant online and monitoring
energy consumption of all machinery can reduce energy
The power of
blockchains thing to look out for in 2018 is Layer 2 protocols, mainly
for public blockchains, which will enhance scalability and
provide more flexibility around smart contracts.
Similar to the gold rush of the 19th century, 2017 has Blockchain technology will continue to provide new
been a real token rush with the rise of initial coin of- social empowerment tools offering an avenue toward
ferings (ICOs) and the launch of decentralized services increased individual sovereignty. It will also provide
such as prediction markets, storage, and computation. machine-to-machine transaction networks. In a world
We have also seen experimentation led by institutions of connected homes and self-driving cars, the idea
and governments trying to validate technological of enabling machines to transact value promises to have
assumptions such as transaction throughput, business a profound impact.
logic execution through smart contracts and near
real-time settlement, etc. Censorship-resistant public participatory decentralized
blockchains (like Bitcoin / Ethereum / Litecoin) will continue
2018 promises to bring more decentralized services that to improve and adopt new use cases, but in 2018
may disrupt industries such as investment banking, new contenders like R3’s Corda or IBM’s Hyperledger
insurance and utilities (i.e. energy, water, public transpor- “blockchains” will also gain traction and new use cases
tation), to name but a few. Industries are going to will be deployed to provide efficiency gains for industrial
launch pilot applications leveraging the power of block- applications.
chains: data integrity, tokenization of assets, and “trust-
less” business logic execution that require no prior
trust relationship among the transacting parties. Another
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 37
Financial
markets
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 39
Financial markets Growth underpins equities
Growth underpins
equities
Financial markets have again Despite heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula,
proven resilient to geopolitical global equities rose strongly in 2017, supported by
synchronized growth, lower-than-expected inflation and
shocks in 2017. With growth ample liquidity from central banks. We believe that
robust, inflation moderate and the risk of a global recession is low in 2018, so our
equity outlook is generally constructive. It is a
liquidity ample, interest simple but powerful thesis: Growth boosts earnings,
rates should slowly rise. Equities subdues volatility, and mitigates default risk.
should make further gains Elevated equity valuations are not yet a significant
in 2018. Upside surprises to concern. Traditional metrics such as the price/earnings
ratio are high, but not yet at extremes that would point
inflation pose a main risk. to excessive exuberance. Longer-dated bond yields are
anchored by low short-term interest rates and moder-
ate inflation. The likely continued strength of earnings
growth and the still high equity risk premium should
encourage inflows into equities. Meanwhile, still low
interest rates are likely to entice corporates to re-lever-
age, which will also tend to favor equities over credit.
2017 year-to-date
Global yield convergence favors US Treasuries performance on 2018 expected
As the Fed tightens further in the absence of any rapid Equities* 02 November 2017 total returns
rise in inflation, US bond yields are likely to plateau. US equities 17.22% 7.10%
While the potential announcement of corporate tax cuts EMU equities 17.34% 8.30%
could put some upward pressure on yields, we would Swiss equities 17.47% 10.00%
see this as an opportunity to add to US fixed income UK equities 9.30% 5.40%
exposure. In contrast, yields in other major developed Japanese equities 18.87% 11.70%
countries are likely to rise in trend, albeit moderately, as
EM equities 29.41% 12.30%
central banks embark on liquidity removal. Given the up-
coming tapering of the ECB bond buying program and Close on End-2018
potential build-up in hiking expectations in 2018, we are Bond yields 02 November 2017 forecast
especially careful on longer-dated German sovereigns 10-year US
and the strongly correlated Swiss franc bond market. Treasury yield 2.35% 2.70%
Sovereign bonds in the euro periphery might outperform 10-year German
marginally, but quite tight spreads and political risks limit Bund yield 0.37% 1.00%
in bond defaults in 2018, there is likely going to be Gold (USD/oz) 1276.80 1250.00
some pressure for credit spreads to widen. WTI (USD/bbl) 54.81 55.00
* Performance and expected returns are total return including dividends. Markets
refer to MSCI country / regional indices in local currency. Performance of the
periods 02/11/2012 – 02/11/2017 for those indices in chronological order are:
MSCI USA: 26.5%, 16.7%, 5.1%, 3.6%, 24.6%. MSCI EMU: 26.2%, 5.3%,
16.7%, -5.2%, 26.6%. MSCI Switzerland: 27%, 10.6%, 4.5%, -8.2%,
23.7%. MSCI UK: 19.2%, 0.5%, 0.1%, 13%, 12.4%. MSCI Japan: 63.3%,
14.8%, 17.8%, -9.9%, 29.5%. MSCI EM: 10.2%, 6%, -3.1%, 8.1%, 27.2%
** Barclays Global Agg Corporate and Global High Yield index
*** JP Morgan EMBIG Div. (sovereign index)
Source Datastream, Credit Suisse
Last data point 02 November 2017
Note These forecasts are no reliable indicators of future performance.
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 41
Financial markets Growth underpins equities
40
China
5 Malaysia
30
Thailand
3 Hungary
20
Turkey
1 Poland
10
Brazil
-2 South Africa
0 Russia
Mexico
-3
-10 Indonesia
0 50 100 150 200 250
1988 92 96 00 04 08 12 16
Government Non-government
Earnings per share (EPS) growth YoY %
Year-on-year difference in GDP growth (right-hand scale, % point) Source IIF, Credit Suisse
Last data point Q2 2017
Source Datastream, International Monetary Fund, Credit Suisse Note Government vs. non-government debt (households, financial and
Last data point October 2017 non-financial corporates) in % of GDP.
Credit spreads recently reached tight levels not seen rates also expected to trend lower given healthier balance
since before the financial crisis. Excluding an illiquidity sheets of commodity issuers. At the same time, fun
premium, credit spreads ultimately reflect the probability damentals are starting to deteriorate in other sectors as
of default and the extent of losses in case of bankruptcy, corporates re-leverage their balance sheets. Moreover,
both of which are closely linked to the health of corpor loan recovery rates – a better cyclical indicator – are
ate balance sheets. Sharp increases in default rates and already declining. As the weakening in credit metrics
a drop in bond recovery rates typically occur during progresses, we anticipate credit spreads to gradually
recessions when lending conditions significantly worsen. mirror higher default uncertainties.
A recession looks very unlikely in 2018, with bond default
16% 40%
14%
50%
12%
60%
10%
70%
8%
80%
6%
4% 90%
2% 100%
2003 05 06 08 09 11 12 14 15 17
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 43
Financial markets Growth underpins equities
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
World Real Estate 1-year forward dividend yield MSCI World 1-year forward dividend yield Barclays Global-Aggregate Yield
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 45
Spotlight: Currency
impact
Currency movements can dramatically alter investment In 2018, investors will need to keep a close eye on
returns. Over the past year, the S&P 500 has returned these currency hedging factors. Rising US short-term
nearly 15% in local currency. However, due to US dollar interest rates will keep the cost of hedging US dollars
weakness in 2017, this has shrunk to less than 10% in relatively high for most non US dollar-based investors.
unhedged euro terms. Hedging this currency risk would But note that the correlation between the value of the
have helped, taking the return back above 12%, but US dollar (vs. the euro) and the US equity market has
due to the significant interest cost of hedging, would not also been rising significantly from the extremely negative
have eradicated the loss. In making currency hedging levels seen in the post-crisis years, arguing for a rela-
decisions, there is more than just the interest cost to tively higher hedge ratio, at least for euro-based investors.
consider: currency risk can either add to or subtract from Once the European Central Bank starts to move Euro-
total portfolio risk, depending on the correlation between zone interest rates higher, the case for raising hedges on
the selected foreign assets and the exchange rate. US dollar exposure will rapidly grow.
So simply hedging currency risk is not always the answer.
Active management of currency exposure and sensitivity
to the correlation characteristics are key to controlling
portfolio impact, and potentially adding value relative to
a passive strategy.
Source Bloomberg
Last data point 30 September 2017
Note Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are no reliable indicators of current or future performance.
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 47
Political stress in the USA
Financial markets Mind the risks Political risks Failure of US tax reform and
deeper political tensions domes-
tically could be very negative for
global equities and the USD.
risks
Our base case view of the Credit bubble bursts in China
Escalating corporate debt levels in China or a liquidity
world in 2018 is optimistic, shock could lead to a growth slowdown or vice versa,
with a severe negative impact on equities and credit.
as we expect a broad-based
acceleration of growth. Yet
unfortunately, it is not going
to be a world without risks.
Geopolitical risks
Many risks have a low probability of occurring, but if
Escalation of US/North Korea conflict
they do, they are likely to have a major impact on the A severe escalation of North Korea tensions
global economy and financial assets. Such “tail risks” or an armed conflict would be highly negative
remind investors that constructing a diversified portfolio for risk assets.
is the best way to protect against the unforeseen
and the first step to successful long-term investing. Our
boxes show the key risks for investors to consider
in 2018.
Other risks
Recession or overheating
A surprise slowdown in China or the USA
would lead to a sharp pull-back in risk as-
Policy error in global trade
sets. An overheating of the US economy
A trade war between the USA and China
and an interest rate spike would also have
or the cancellation of NAFTA without
adverse effects.
replacement would severely impact growth
and risk assets, especially in emerging
markets.
Leverage risks
Regulatory risks
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 49
Financial markets Portfolio Checks 2018
Forecast average total returns (per year) over the next 5 years (in %)
US convertibles
EM government USD
US high yield
US corporates
US inflation linked
Austr. government
Europe corporates
US govt., long-term
UK government
Europe government
AUD
USD
GBP
EUR
JPY
CHF
Private equity
Eurozone real est. eq.
Asian real estate
US real estate eq.
US direct properties
Commodities
Hedge funds (HFRX)
Gold
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 51
Financial markets Investment themes 2018
Investment
themes 2018
Every year we highlight our Theme 1: Emerging market winners
top themes for the year ahead. Emerging market (EM) assets have performed extremely
well in 2017. With a supportive growth environment,
These annual investment we expect 2018 to be another good year for EMs. Yet,
themes are updated according as for assets in other regions, we think opportunities
will likely be best approached through actively managed
to the House View throughout solutions and focused investments, as we see less
the year. Investment upside for broad benchmarks.
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 53
Financial markets Investment themes 2018
Angry Societies – Multipolar World Silver Economy – Investing for Population Aging
Builds on government efforts to restore or The key demographic trend of the next decade or
strengthen middle class prosperity. Focus on: longer. Focus on:
ǢǢ National champions ǢǢ Senior lifestyle
ǢǢ Security and defense companies ǢǢ Old-age diseases
ǢǢ Emerging market consumers ǢǢ Real estate / Senior housing
ǢǢ Life insurance / Asset managers
Infrastructure – Closing the Gap
A global policy priority in public-private partner- Millennials’ Values
ship after years of underinvestment. Focus on: Looking at Millennials’ industry-shaping behavior
ǢǢ Transport and preferences. Focus on:
ǢǢ Energy and water supply ǢǢ Sustainable business and investments
ǢǢ Affordable housing ǢǢ Clean energy
ǢǢ Digital natives
Technology at the Service of Humans ǢǢ Social enterprise and impact investments
An irreversible trend that is increasingly ǢǢ Fun, health and leisure
scrutinized by regulators. Focus on: ǢǢ Millennial housing
ǢǢ Digitalization
ǢǢ Virtual and augmented reality For further information about our Supertrends,
ǢǢ Artificial intelligence please visit www.credit-suisse.com/thematicinvestment
ǢǢ Industry 4.0
ǢǢ Health tech
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 55
Calendar 2018
Milestones
in 2018
No later than 20 May
General
elections
08 March
Italy
ECB meeting
Eurozone
26 / 27 April
BoJ meeting
Japan
22 / 23 January
BoJ meeting 20 / 21 March
Japan Fed meeting 12 / 13 June
with press Fed meeting
conference with press
United States conference
United States
elections
(presidential & parliamentary)
30 / 31 July
BoJ meeting
Japan
07 – 28 October
01 July General
General elections
elections Brazil
18 / 19 December
Mexico
Fed meeting
with press
conference
United States
09 September
General
elections
06 November
Sweden
Midterm
elections
United States
12–14 October
Annual meeting 13 December
of the Interna- ECB meeting
tional Monetary Eurozone
13 September Fund and
ECB meeting the World Bank
Eurozone Group
Indonesia
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 57
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Performance
can be affected by commissions, fees or other charges as well as exchange
rate fluctuations.
Sensitivities
Sensitivity analysis is understood as the change in the market value (e.g. price)
Glossary of a financial instrument for a given change in a risk factor and/or model
For a glossary of the terms mentioned in this report, please refer to the fol- assumption. Specifically, the market value of any financial instrument may
lowing Internet link: https://investment.credit-suisse.com/wlglossary be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including,
but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to
Risk warning maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer
This report may include information on investments that involve special or reference issuer.
risks. You should seek the advice of your independent financial advisor prior
to taking any investment decisions based on this report or for any neces- Financial market risks
sary explanation of its contents. Further information is also available in the Historical returns and financial market scenarios are no guarantee of future
information brochure “Special Risks in Securities Trading” available from the performance. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income
Swiss Bankers Association at http://www.swissbanking.org/en/home/ that might accrue could fall or rise or fluctuate. Past performance is not a
publikationen-link/shop_popup.htm?ID=11308 guide to future performance. If an investment is denominated in a currency
For a discussion of the risks of investing in the securities mentioned in this other than your base currency, changes in the rate of exchange may have an
report, please refer to the following Internet link: adverse effect on value, price or income. You should consult with such advi-
https://research.credit-suisse.com/riskdisclosure sor(s) as you consider necessary to assist you in making these determinations.
Investments may have no public market or only a restricted secondary mar-
The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instru- ket. Where a secondary market exists, it is not possible to predict the price
ments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities at which investments will trade in the market or whether such market will
and financial instruments is affected by changes in spot or forward interest be liquid or illiquid.
and exchange rates, economic indicators, the financial standing of any issuer
or reference issuer, etc., that may have a positive or adverse effect on the in- Emerging markets
come from or price of such securities or financial instruments. By purchasing Where this report relates to emerging markets, you should be aware that there
securities or financial instruments, you may incur a loss or a loss in excess are uncertainties and risks associated with investments and transactions in
of the principal as a result of fluctuations in market prices or other financial various types of investments of, or related or linked to, issuers and obligors
indices, etc. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are incorporated, based or principally engaged in business in emerging markets
influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. countries. Investments related to emerging markets countries may be con-
Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price, mar- sidered speculative, and their prices will be much more volatile than those in
ket price or changes in redemption amounts. Care is required when investing the more developed countries of the world. Investments in emerging markets
in such instruments. investments should be made only by sophisticated investors or experienced
Commission rates for brokerage transactions will be as per the rates agreed professionals who have independent knowledge of the relevant markets, are
between CS and the investor. For transactions conducted on a princi- able to consider and weigh the various risks presented by such investments,
pal-to-principal basis between CS and the investor, the purchase or sale and have the financial resources necessary to bear the substantial risk of loss
price will be the total consideration. Transactions conducted on a princi- of investment in such investments. It is your responsibility to manage the risks
pal-to-principal basis, including over-the-counter derivative transactions, will which arise as a result of investing in emerging markets investments and the
be quoted as a purchase/bid price or sell/offer price, in which case a differ- allocation of assets in your portfolio. You should seek advice from your own
ence or spread may exist. Charges in relation to transactions will be agreed advisers with regard to the various risks and factors to be considered when
upon prior to transactions, in line with relevant laws and regulations. Please investing in an emerging markets investment.
read the pre-contract documentation, etc., carefully for an explanation of
risks and commissions, etc., of the relevant securities or financial instru- Alternative investments
ments prior to purchase Hedge funds are not subject to the numerous investor protection regulations
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree that apply to regulated authorized collective investments and hedge fund
of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are managers are largely unregulated. Hedge funds are not limited to any partic-
capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value ular investment discipline or trading strategy, and seek to profit in all kinds of
of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial markets by using leverage, derivatives, and complex speculative investment
and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest strategies that may increase the risk of investment loss.
and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and Commodity transactions carry a high degree of risk and may not be suitable
the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in for many private investors. The extent of loss due to market movements can
purchasing a structured product should conduct their own investigation and be substantial or even result in a total loss.
analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to Investors in real estate are exposed to liquidity, foreign currency and other
the risks involved in making such a purchase. risks, including cyclical risk, rental and local market risk as well as environ-
Some investments discussed in this report have a high level of volatility. mental risk, and changes to the legal situation.
High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their Private equity is private equity capital investment in companies that are not
value causing losses when that investment is realized. Those losses may traded publicly (i.e., are not listed on a stock exchange). Private equity in-
equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments vestments are generally illiquid and are seen as a long-term investment.
the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment, in such Private equity investments, including the investment opportunity described
circumstances you may be required to pay more money to support those herein, may include the following additional risks: (i) loss of all or a substan-
losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, tial portion of the investor’s investment, (ii) investment managers may have
initial capital paid to make the investment may be used as part of that in- incentives to make investments that are riskier or more speculative due to
come yield. Some investments may not be readily realizable and it may be performance-based compensation, (iii) lack of liquidity as there may be no
difficult to sell or realize those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for secondary market, (iv) volatility of returns, (v) restrictions on transfer, (vi)
you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such potential lack of diversification, (vii) high fees and expenses, (viii) little or no
an investment is exposed. Please contact your Relationship Manager if you requirement to provide periodic pricing and (ix) complex tax structures and
have any questions. delays in distributing important tax information to investors.
credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook 59
Disclaimer
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Sandrine Perret
European Strategist
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Head of Global Macro Analysis
Claude Maurer
Head of Swiss Macro Strategy
Damian Künzi
Senior Economist
Daniel Rupli
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Julie Saussier-Clément
Senior Equity Analyst
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Senior Research Analyst
Samuel Traub
Equity Research
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